State Budget Deficits Research Articles

Fiscal Sustainability in India: an Assessment in Pre and Aftermath of Covid-19

The purpose of this research paper is to evaluate India's budgetary sustainability both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Global economies have been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and India is no exception. The country is facing significant fiscal issues as a result of rising costs for social security, health care, and economic stimulus plans. This study examines shifts in India's fiscal situation prior to the pandemic and the consequences encountered in its aftermath by examining fiscal variables such as state debt, budget deficits, and revenue trends. Using a mixed-method approach, the study combines qualitative evaluations derived from government reports and economic forecasts with quantitative data analysis. Initial results show that there has been a decline in fiscal indicators since COVID-19, which has been made worse by lower revenue generation and higher demands for expenditure.

ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP UKRAINE–EU: RETROSPECT AND CHALLENGES OF FURTHER ENHANCED COOPERATION

Ukraine has been a priority partner of the EU since the signing of the Association Agreement in 2014. It was the significant financial and economic support of the EU as a whole and, in particular, of individual EU member states that became a key tool for avoiding catastrophic consequences in the financial and economic system of our country at the beginning of a full-scale war and for the current financing of the state budget deficit. Today, the European Union's support for Ukraine is extremely significant, although it is accompanied by a number of problematic issues that require an in-depth study of certain aspects of economic partnership in terms of finding ways and directions to improve the use of the potential of bilateral economic relations with the European Union as a whole and with individual EU member states.The methodological basis of the study is based on general scientific and special methods of economic theory, in particular, methods of theoretical generalization and comparative analysis for a comprehensive consideration of the research issue, and statistical methods of analysis. In the course of the study, the statistical materials of the European Union and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on foreign trade in goods were used.Modern scientific views on the content and prospects of Ukraine's economic partnership with the EU are studied. The key stages of the development of Ukraine's economic partnership with the European Union are summarized and schematized, with details of the areas of sectoral cooperation. The main indicators of trade relations and their role in the economies of the studied countries are analyzed. The key obstacles to further deepening of the economic partnership are substantiated, the elimination of which should be the primary goal of our country on the way to European integration.The obtained results can serve for further study of trade relations and their role in the economies of the studied countries.

Macroeconomic regulators of functioning of agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan: key directions

The goal is to develop effective tools for macroeconomic policy for the innovative development of AIC of the republic. Methods – abstract-logical, economic-statistical, system approach, comparative analysis. Results - the article shows the role of agro-industrial complex in achieving strategic goals: ensuring food security, increasing export potential, increasing the competitiveness of market entities on domestic and foreign markets. The evolution of agricultural industry in economically developed countries is considered: inter-sectoral cooperation, effectiveness of specialization, cooperation, production and economic ties during integration. The features of agro-industrial production and the key problems of its development are presented. The main factors constraining the strengthening of innovation and investment orientation of enterprises in the system of measures aimed to achieve full use of limited resources have been identified. Ways to form macroeconomic environment are proposed - necessary condition for stimulating entrepreneurial activity. The place and importance of total expenditures in solving the assigned tasks, the state budget deficit and methods of financing, methods of regulating banking, new monetary policy, tax and insurance systems and directions for their improvement, main components of transformation of agricultural sector into national innovation system are outlined. Conclusions - the strategic course towards innovative processes in agriculture is determined by global and domestic trends, the use of the latest resource-saving technologies and their rational use, contributes to stable increase in the level of domestic consumption, reduction in import volumes due to substitution of domestic food products. The article was written based on the research results on the project: AR19678876 “Effective system of macroeconomic instruments for state regulation of innovative development of AIC of the RK.”

ОЧЕРК О «КОРЕННЫХ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЯХ» В ФИНАНСОВОЙ ПОЛИТИКЕ ЦАРСКОГО ПРАВИТЕЛЬСТВА И ПОПЫТКЕ СОЗДАНИЯ В РОССИИ ЦЕНТРОБАНКА В ГОДЫ ПЕРВОЙ МИРОВОЙ ВОЙНЫ

The paper, in the context of the Stolypin agrarian reform, examines the issue of appointing P.L. Bark Minister of Finance. The most important reason for the influential statesman, president of land management and agriculture A.V. Krivoshein, who was directly responsible for the implementation of agrarian policy, to promote P.L. Bark in every possible way was his desire to expand lending to the agricultural sector of the economy. At the same time, it is seen that the relationship between these state dignitaries could have hidden personal selfish motives. It is shown that the leaders of the world banking community of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, represented primarily by the Rothschild clan, paid commissions to representatives of the tsarist government when issuing loans to Russia. The authors do not exclude that similar practices took place during the First World War. The country's debt dependence on world bankers increased significantly, thanks to the “radical changes” of financial policy undertaken by P.L. Bark as Minister of Finance and supported by Nicholas II. Prohibition, which was implemented by P.L. Bark became one of the reasons for the emergence and significant increase in the state budget deficit. At the beginning of the 20th century Russia was the only one of the most developed countries in the world where there was no full-fledged Central Bank, as a formally national institution, but actually acting as a “bank of banks”, a conductor of the interests of bankers in monetary policy. This was one of the reasons for the emergence of the P.L. Bark’s project to transform the State Bank into the Central Bank. The revolution of 1917 prevented the implementation of this plan and the inclusion of Russia in the system of central banks of the world.

MONETARY AND FISCAL COORDINATION IN UKRAINE AND ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF MARITAL STATE

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy instruments, to determine the level of influence of monetary and fiscal factors on economic growth, as well as to justify ways for improving the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy coordination. Insufficient coordination of monetary and fiscal policies entails devastating economic consequences. The critical analysis of scientific publications proved that today the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies depends on the degree of balanced regulation of interest rates and inflation control. The research uses a NARDL model to capture mainstream trends in the influence of monetary and fiscal factors, as well as in the empirical study of their coordination. According to the estimations it was established that the weighted average rate of NBU instruments is absorbed to a greater extent in the monetary component of coordination, the system of managing the internal public debt – in the fiscal component. The participation of monetary authorities in the management of the national internal debt remains a debatable issue today. It is proved that the process of coordination of monetary and fiscal policies is influenced by the state of Ukraine’s economy during the war.Despite the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, it is necessary to focus on improving the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies. In particular, the significant contribution of the NBU in financing the state budget deficit due to their purchase of government bonds needs to be resolved. Strengthening the role of macroprudential policy in the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, one of the goals of which is to counter the emergence of a systemic crisis; formation of a clearly developed coordination strategy, which would be based on clearly defined goals, set tasks on the basis of selected methods and instruments for their achievement.

Soaring public debt: Return of financial repression and high inflation?

The global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has once again shown the key role of fiscal stimulus. At the same time, in many developed countries, stimulating monetary policy was limited by the already achieved zero interest rates. But the fight against the consequences of the coronavirus with fiscal policy instruments had a negative effect in the form of an increase in the state budget deficit and, as a result, in public debt. According to the Institute of International Finance (IMF), by the end of 2022, global debt reached $297 trillion, or 349%. The public debt in the world reached 102% of GDP in 2022, which is a historically high value since the 1960s. In 2023, global debt continued to grow in nominal terms: according to the IMF, in Q1 2023, it has already increased by $8.3 trillion to $305 trillion. The risks of rapid growth in public debt in developed and developing countries were even before the COVID-19 pandemic. But after a period of stimulus fiscal measures in 2020—2021 the public debt problem has worsened, raising fears that the practice of financial repression could become a reality for the next decade. Accelerating global inflation increases incentives for governments to use financial repression to eliminate the public debt burden. At the same time, financial repression, in turn, may imply a decrease in the effectiveness of the inflation targeting policy, as a result of which there are risks that high inflation will become more sustainable.

Some aspects of the impact of the State budget deficit on the Socio-economic development of Russia

Some aspects of the impact of the State budget deficit on the Socio-economic development of Russia

Фінансування дефіциту державного бюджету України в умовах воєнного стану

As a country that faces constant economic turbulence, Ukraine is dealing with several challenges. This includes a significant increase in the deficit of budget resources while needing to finance military expenses, all while trying to maintain macroeconomic stability. This article focuses on the specifics of financing the deficit of the state budget of Ukraine during martial law. The financing of the state budget deficit is analyzed in terms of the classification of budget financing by the type of creditor and the type of debt obligation. These indicators were significantly affected by the military challenges in 2022 and the first half of 2023. The article also covers the budget deficit’s coverage analysis at the expense of revenues from the privatization of state property and the issuance of military government bonds, which gained popularity in Ukraine. The authors emphasized the importance of cooperation between the state and IFIs and other institutions as an essential source of financing for overcoming the deficit of the state budget. This form of cooperation is necessary for maintaining the country’s financial stability and resilience to face complex challenges. The article examines the measures to cover the budget deficit in military conditions, including the need to carry out budget system reforms, cost optimization, searching for new sources of income, expanding the tax base, and improving the efficiency of the tax system, which can provide additional funds in the budget. Other measures include financial transparency, investment stimulation, budget consolidation, increasing transparency, fighting corruption, improving conditions for entrepreneurship, achieving low and stable inflation, expanding the tax base, and speeding up the privatization of state enterprises.

Keterkaitan Hukum Privatisasi BUMN Terhadap Kewenangan Negara

Privatization of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) in Indonesia. Privatization is undertaken with the intention of enhancing company performance, contributing to the country's economy, and improving less efficient management. However, there are concerns regarding the loss of economic sovereignty through privatization. The Indonesian government has implemented a privatization policy based on the 1999 GBHN and the 2003 BUMN Law. Privatization has various dimensions and objectives, including reducing the state's role in the economy, increasing management efficiency, and filling the state budget deficit. The role of BUMN in development has been significant, but there have also been cases of poor management and financial losses. Privatization of BUMN is considered to overcome this problem and improve company performance. However, there are challenges in achieving professionalism and competitiveness in BUMN because employee status is like civil servants. There is also controversy regarding privatization, with some arguing that certain sectors should remain under government control in the interests of the economy. The privatization of BUMN is regulated by the BUMN Law, which emphasizes the importance of transparency, accountability, and fairness in the privatization process. However, there are concerns regarding the consistency of these regulations with the Constitution. Therefore, it is recommended that there be restrictions on the sale of shares during privatization and that the government maintain majority ownership of the shares. Apart from that, a clear definition is needed for the purpose of privatization and more detailed regulations in the BUMN Law.

Problems of financing the state budget deficit

In the context of russia’s full-scale invasion, the agricultural sector remains one of the main sources of budget financing in Ukraine, and therefore requires a more detailed study in this context in the context of war. Thus, the purpose of the study was to assess the current possibilities of financing the Ukrainian budget, with a focus on the role of the agricultural sector in its revenue and expenditure parts. The main research methods used were analysis, forecasting, abstraction, historical, statistical and graphical methods. The study analysed the dynamics of the Ukrainian budget and described the general negative trend observed over time. The study analysed possible areas of raising funds for financing, in particular through bonds, both domestic and foreign, and concluded that such methods are undesirable. The paper also shows that the agricultural sector in Ukraine has become a significant source of replenishment of the country’s budget during the war. The information being in the available sources indicates that the share of revenues received from the agricultural sector in the budget of Ukraine is quite high, and the sector itself is in surplus (revenues exceed expenditures). Given the benefits for the budget from the development of the agricultural sector, it is important to support it with both financial and non-financial methods. The results of the work can be used by government officials in their management activities within the country or regions, as well as by business leaders in building long-term development strategies

Kombinat Murmanskoj zheleznoj dorogi: unikal'nyj eksperiment po resheniyu voprosov oboronosposobnosti zheleznodorozhnogo transporta v usloviyah NEPa

The article is devoted to the analysis of the activities of the Transport-Industrial-Colonization Combine of the Murmansk Railroad in solving the issues of defense of rail transport in the New economic policy. As a result of the analysis of the complex of archival data, periodicals, normative-legal acts and available historiography the author made conclusions about the uniqueness of this experiment in the system of the forming USSR mobilization planning system. It was noted that the combine's activity was possible due to a number of factors, including a favorable foreign policy situation in the North-West of the USSR, the state budget deficit after the Civil War and the necessity of the Murmansk railroad existence, proved by the Karelian Rebellion of 1921-1922.

Enabling beneficial right for sovereign ṣukūk issuance in Indonesia: challenges and analysis

PurposeThis study aims to investigate beneficial right as a new legal concept and term accepted by the Indonesian legal system. The new concept was ratified to endorse government decision to use ṣukūk (as an Islamic financial instrument) in the financing of state budget deficit. Some legal issues emerged after the ratification such as the necessity to synchronize the beneficial right with other property rights in Indonesia and the disharmony between laws related to sovereign ṣukūk issuance.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses a qualitative method with library study and interviews with relevant legal experts in Indonesia as the data collection techniques.FindingsThe findings show that the passage of Sovereign Ṣukūk Law 2008 that ratified beneficial right deemed as a concession point by the government to solve conflicts between legal restriction and employment of state-owned assets as the underlying asset of sovereign ṣukūk. The study deemed the necessity to improve the use of beneficial right in the Indonesian legal system which by the concept is not exercised for the issuance of sovereign ṣukūk only. There is the need to harmonize the administration of this right with other property rights in Indonesia.Research limitations/implicationsThe scope of study will be limited to the Indonesian regulation related to the use of beneficial right concept in the issuance of sovereign ṣukūk in Indonesia. The regulation as mentioned will be in the form of statutes, presidential or ministerial regulations, and also opinions of Indonesian legal and sharīʿah scholars regarding the matter.Originality/valueThis study may explore significantly the use of beneficial right for the issuance of sovereign ṣukūk by the Government of Indonesia. Specifically, the study reveals and addresses the issues that are following the ratification of beneficial rights originated from the common law system into the Indonesian civil law system.

ПРОБЛЕМЫ РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЯ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННО- ГО БЮДЖЕТА ИРАКА В СОВРЕМЕННЫХ РЫНОЧНЫХ УСЛОВИЯХ

In modern conditions of development of both budgetary relations in the Republic of Iraq in particular, and the general development of the country's economy, a number of problems and difficult situations arise that need to be solved. The excess of the expenditure item over the income item contributes to the formation of a budget defi- cit, which creates the need for the state to identify additional sources of financing and level the state budget deficit. trying to minimize its costs depending on the geopoliti- cal situation in the country. The article deals with the problems of regulating the state budget of the Republic of Iraq in modern market conditions, which consist in a con- stant increase in the volume of financial allocations and a decrease in the effective- ness of public spending, as well as the diversification of budget revenues; reducing the excessively high salary fund of civil servants and reforming the pension system, ensuring budget balance, its financial soundness.

The impact of inflation on macroeconomic instability in different countries

Within the framework of this article, the author sets himself the goal of analyzing the characteristics of inflation processes in different countries, as well as the impact of inflation on macroeconomic instability in Poland, Sweden and Russia. The author argues that minimizing the risk of inflation will help the country reach a new level of development and stabilize constant economic growth. In 1980–1990 Many countries began to move from a command economy to a market economy, and the listed countries were no exception. It is emphasized that the Polish economy in the 1990s was one of the weakest in the European zone, and there was macroeconomic instability in all its forms: shortages of goods, high inflation, unemployment, and government budget deficits. However, today Poland is a successful country, its GDP is growing every year, while inflation processes can be maintained at the proper level. The article analyzes the inflation rate in Poland at the end of the twentieth century, during the crisis period in 2008, and also highlights the main measures taken by the Polish government to reduce inflation rates and minimize possible risks. In addition, the author believes that today Sweden is a country with a developed economy and the most favorable living conditions for its population. Despite favorable living conditions for the population, Sweden faces both a risk of inflation and a risk of deflation, both of which contribute to macroeconomic instability in the country. With the collapse of the USSR, macroeconomic instability, according to the author, is constantly observed in the country. High levels of inflation, state budget deficits, and periodic declines in production have been observed in the country for 20 years. In the final part of the article, the author compares the inflation rates of the countries considered, and also formulates a conclusion regarding the experience of other countries in the fight against inflation.

Fiscal Policy of Economic Development: Comparative Characteristics of Ukraine and Poland

A comparative analysis of the fiscal policy of Poland and Ukraine has been conducted in the academic paper in the context of its impact on economic development. In particular, the effectiveness of the application of the following instruments of fiscal policy has been compared, namely: state budget deficit, state budget expenditures and their structure, state budget revenues, their structure and tax benefits, as well as state debt policy. The basic advantages of Poland’s fiscal policy over Ukraine’s fiscal policy have been outlined. The attention is focused on the shortcomings of the fiscal policy of Ukraine from the point of view of its impact on economic growth, as well as ways of optimizing fiscal instruments, taking into account the experience of Poland. Purpose: a comparative analysis of the fiscal policy of Poland and Ukraine in order to determine the advantages and disadvantages of its impact on economic development, as well as to outline the vectors of adaptation of the best experience for the national economy. Design/Methodology/Approach: In order to achieve the purpose outlined, the following methods have been used, namely: analysis and synthesis; economic and statistical analysis and comparison; economic and mathematical; generalization. Results. It has been proved that the fiscal policy of Poland is aimed at the development of economic infrastructure and building an economic model of the state based on the manufacture of products with a high share of value added. It has been substantiated that the fiscal policy of Ukraine does not have significant effects on economic development due to the use of such instruments as public debt and capital expenditures, however, the external debt dependence of the state is quite high. Apart from that, it has been proved that the fiscal policy of Ukraine does not increase the level of economic complexity and development of the processing industry through the implementation of tax benefits. It has been proposed to increase the efficiency of tax authorities in Ukraine in terms of combating the shadow economy, boost the share of capital expenditures and raise the level of conversion of public debt into economic growth.

Penerbitan Obligasi Negara Sebagai Alternatif Pendanaan Defisit APBN Indonesia

Deficit funding for the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) is an important challenge for the government in maintaining fiscal stability and supporting development policies. In order to find an effective funding alternative, the issuance of state bonds has become an option. This study aims to analyze the position of issuing state bonds as an alternative to funding the state budget deficit. This study uses a descriptive-analytical approach by collecting data from various related sources. The analysis was carried out through a literature review, data from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, and regulations regarding the issuance of Government Bonds. The results of the study show that the issuance of state bonds has several benefits as an alternative to financing the state budget deficit, namely diversifying government funding sources, reducing dependence on tax revenues and other income, providing flexibility in the schedule of interest and principal payments, in accordance with the government's financial capacity, attracting investor participation. institutional and retail, increasing financial market liquidity. APBN Deficit Funding is dominated by State Bonds, which of course the issuance of state bonds as an instrument for funding the APBN deficit makes fiscal space narrow. When the space for fiscal movement becomes limited, it means that the government faces limitations in collecting revenue or in managing government spending.
 

ECONOMIC AND LEGAL ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS OF THE EMERGENCE OF THREATS TO THE SYSTEM OF COUNTERACTING MONEY LAUNDERING AND TERRORISM FINANCING IN UKRAINE

The purpose of the article is to study the theoretical and applied principles of the economic and legal analysis of socio-economic factors of the emergence of threats to the system of counteracting money laundering and terrorism financing in Ukraine. The results of the conducted research allow us to assert that socio-economic factors have a significant destabilizing effect on the system of counteracting money laundering and terrorism financing in Ukraine and provoke the intensification of the processes of the emergence of threats. The article analyzes the main approaches to determining the socio-economic factors of threats to the system of counteracting money laundering and terrorism financing in Ukraine, systematizes their list and singles out the most important ones. On the basis of a detailed study, an economic and legal analysis of socio-economic factors of the emergence of threats to the system of counteracting money laundering and terrorism financing and their legislative regulation was carried out. It was established that among the most significant socio-economic factors of the emergence of threats to the system of counteracting money laundering and terrorism financing in Ukraine are: (1) the growth of the shadow economy; (2) the deepening of corruption; (3) growth of the state budget deficit; (4) an increase in the number of crimes related to the legalization (laundering) of criminally obtained funds. The weakness of the current domestic legislation in terms of establishing responsibility for crimes containing signs of money laundering and terrorism financing was revealed, which requires its improvement in the direction of strengthening such responsibility. A list of measures of economic and legal regulation of socio-economic factors of the emergence of threats to the system of counteracting money laundering and terrorism financing in Ukraine is proposed, most of which are in the area of harmonizing the current legislation of Ukraine with international and European norms, improving the supervisory activities of state regulators and the methodological tools of financial monitoring.

ЎЗБЕКИСТОН РЕСПУБЛИКАСИДА ДАВЛАТ БЮДЖЕТИ ТАҚЧИЛЛИГИНИ МОЛИЯЛАШТИРИШНИНГЗАМОНАВИЙ ҲОЛАТИНИНГ ХУСУСИЯТЛАРИ

This article reveals the essence of the state budget deficit and its methods of its financing and the stages of development are being considered. In Uzbekistan, since the acquisition of independence and to the present day there is a problem of state budget deficit. In our country at present, to finance the state budget deficit, mainly the public external debt is used. In this direction domestic opportunities are little used. This article, using the method of comparative analysis was given the author’s (assessment) evolution of the current state of reducing the state budget deficit of country.

ФІНАНСОВЕ ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ПУБЛІЧНИХ ВИТРАТ У ПЕРІОД ВІЙНИ

Широкомасштабна агресія РФ проти України завдала таких уражень фінансовій системі, що забезпечення критичних потреб опинилося під загрозою. Постала необхідність у перегляді підходів до управління державними видатками, а також їх фінансовим забезпеченням. У період війни обсяги публічних витрат різко збільшилися, а доходи зменшилися. Такі зміни потребували впровадження принципово нових підходів до управління витратами і мобілізації ресурсів за умови дотримання принципів фіскальної стійкості. Проведено аналіз особливостей фінансового забезпечення публічних витрат в Україні в період війни і застосування заходів його покращення з використанням таких методів дослідження, як історичний, логічний, абстракції, опису, узагальнення, порівняння, групування, аналізу, синтезу. Відзначено збільшення бюджетного дефіциту далеко за межі, встановлені фіскальними правилами, що діяли до війни. Для його покриття було розширено розміщення запозичень на внутрішньому ринку. Через ускладнення доступу до міжнародного ринку ресурси стали надходити в рамках допомоги від зарубіжних партнерів. Внесення змін до управління державними фінансами в період війни дозволило утримати їх критичний рівень і фінансову стійкість. Державні боргові зобов’язання розміщувалися переважно на довгострокові терміни, не було допущено різкого зростання їх дохідності. Зовнішні запозичення залучалися від іноземних партнерів на пільгових умовах. Визначено заходи щодо покращення фінансового забезпечення публічних витрат у період війни і подолання її наслідків: зниження показників дефіциту державного бюджету шляхом збільшення покриття видатків доходами; регламентування застосування фіскальних правил у період війни; обмеження монетарного фінансування; зменшення обсягів державного ресурсу для фінансування дефіциту бюджету; зміцнення контролю з боку громадських організацій за використанням мобілізованого з усіх джерел ресурсу для фінансового забезпечення публічних витрат.

Public debt of Ukraine: Essence, current trends and management

At the present stage of the market economy, in the conditions of rapid development of globalisation and cooperation of states in political, economic, and social aspects, public debt is an objectively determined phenomenon, it is an integral part of the country’s financial system. Nowadays, Ukraine is in a difficult situation caused by the outbreak of a large-scale war with russia, which is one of the main reasons for the existence of the public debt. Due to the insufficient amount of monetary resources in the budget, the state is forced to attract financial resources in order to perform its functions. The purpose of this study was to substantiate the theoretical essence of public debt, analyse current trends in the generation of public debt, and identify optimisation ways for effective public debt management in order to reduce it. The authors used the following scientific methods: empirical (description and comparison), theoretical (analysis, synthesis, and generalisation), and statistical. The study considers the essence of public debt according to the views of foreign and Ukrainian researchers. Based on statistical data, the current state of the public debt of Ukraine is characterised, and the dynamics of the public and government-backed debt for the period 2019-2022 are analysed. The volume of expenditures on repayment and servicing of the public debt of Ukraine is analysed. Based on the conducted research, the main reasons for the presence and growth of debt were identified, including the COVID-19 epidemic and the beginning of armed aggression on the part of russia; a decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency; a decline in production and a reduction in tax revenues; a decrease in the volume of the gross domestic product in real terms; a state budget deficit and a negative balance of payments; an increase in spending on ensuring the country’s defenсe capability and servicing public debt. The proposed recommendations would reduce the country’s public debt and increase the competitiveness of the economy at the world level, namely: increase the level of GDP, stimulate the development of small and medium-sized businesses to increase tax revenues to the budget, develop an effective strategy for managing public debt, etc.