State Budget Deficits Research Articles

Вербальные интервенции как фактор формирования инфляционных ожиданий в России

Stability of inflation expectations is a necessary part of inflation targeting. Among many factors that may affect the dynamics of inflation expectations, one of the most important is the communication policy of the central bank and representatives of the government. This paper measures the effectiveness of verbal interventions by the Government and the Bank of Russia on the high-frequency indicator of inflation expectations from the stock market for the period July 2015 - December 2016. Dummy variables are used to characterize verbal interventions in terms of the degree of regularity, the source and the information contained. One of the main features of this paper is the analysis of the verbal interventions from individual representatives of monetary and fiscal policies. By the assessment of the model of conditional heteroscedasticity, we conclude that verbal interventions by the Bank of Russia and members of the Government of the Russian Federation accompanied by decrease of inflation expectations: key verbal interventions were statements about state budget deficit and future inflation. The results obtained can be used to develop the communication policy tools in future.

Тheoretical and applied provisions of the research of the state budget deficit in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe

Within the article, a comprehensive study of the state budget deficit in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries is presented, the effectiveness of managing it is determined. Considerable attention is paid to the deepening of methodical aspects of the assessment of trends in the formation of revenues and expenditures of the identified budgets, the algorithm for defining the deficit of the budget is detailed and it is tested in practice. The obtained results provide an opportunity to establish that the size of the state's deficit depends in part on the economic development of the state and at the same time, its existence can have a positive effect on the growth rate of the national economy. In order to establish the peculiarities of such interaction, a comparative analysis between the deficit ratio of the state budgets and the level of GDP in the CEE countries is carried out. The study confirmed the thesis on the correlation between these indicators and it was also possible to determine in the long run (2007-2017) how these parameters changed. It is established that the accelerated pace of GDP growth with simultaneous growth of the state budget deficit is an indicator of its effective management, as economic growth allows for new, unplanned revenues and other incomings that will reduce the size of the gap between revenues and expenditures of such a budget. In turn, in case of rapid growth of the deficit against the backdrop of insignificant growth rates of the country's GDP, it shows that some of the country's financial resources are spent inefficiently and are not used to stimulate economic development in the state. In this case, the funds are spent on the social sphere maintenance, raising the level of economic provision of citizens of the state. However, such processes can take place only in the short term, since the deficit itself will need to be further covered by other revenue items of the budget. Taking into consideration the outlined, it is stated in the article, that improper management of the state budget deficit may have long-term negative consequences for the functioning of the entire national economy, and their solution cannot be implemented quickly.

Vietnam’s economy in 2017 - 2018: Growth on an efficient and sustainable foundation

2017 is the first time after many years that Vietnam met and exceeded 13 social-economic indicators. Vietnam’s economy experienced a high economic growth rate, stable and sustainable macroeconomic environment. GDP growth is 6.81% (target 6.7%), CPI 3.53% (target (4%), credit growth 18,1%, and FDI of 36 billion USD. Import-export turnovers remain a significant achievement and has been maintained at a high level. Early results from restructuring of state-own enterprises signal a successful restructuring. These positive indicators provide impetus for the Vietnam’s economy in 2018. The targets in 2018 include maintaining a stable macro-economic environment, achieving a 6.7% GDP growth, focusing on growth quality and sustainability, 4% CPI, 3.7% state budget deficit, 63.9% public debt, 8-10% increase in export turnover against 2017, less than 3% trade deficit and a ratio of government investment to GDP at 34%. To successfully achieve 2018 economic indicators, it is necessary to strongly apply policies and solutions for a creative and innovative system, develop science and technology nationwide and in every industry. This is to create breakthrough for the changes of the structure and growth model.

The Longest Decade of the Empire’s Treasury: 1853-1856 Crimean War and Ottoman State Finances

This study aims to investigate the economic factors behind the crisis of the state finances, caused by the effects of the Crimean War of 1853-56. In the 19th century, modernization of the economic structure was realized through administrative and fiscal restructuring within the framework of Tanzimat period reforms. The Crimean war that took place in such a context brought great financial burdens to the empire's treasury and the pressure caused by increased expenditure necessitated new methods to financing the state budget deficit. In this context, in addition to methods that were previously used as government financing instruments like short-term loans from Galata Bankers and paper money creation, external debt was borrowed from European financial markets for the first time and domestic borrowing securities were issued. The Ottoman government has postponed the crisis of state finances for a while through new financing methods. But the economic consequences of these financing instruments have led to more severe fiscal problems for the state in the following years.

State stabilization macroeconomic policy: features and prospects for Ukraine

The research reveals the essence of the process of state stabilization macroeconomic policy, which includes two main directions: fiscal policy influence on the budget balancing and monetary regulation of economy through the transmission mechanism improvement and monetary regime defining. The key problems connected with the state budget deficit are investigated. The state and dynamics of the Ukraine state budget are considered. The ways of overcoming the consequences of state budget imbalances are analyzed. The concept of transmission mechanism was defined. Were shown and explained all the key channels of monetary transmission used in Ukraine and in the world, and were suggested the ways to improve their efficiency, which in future may lead to the improvement of the economic situation in Ukraine. Was justified the necessity of improving the transmission mechanism for the monetary policy strategic objectives achieving. Were given the recommendations on how to improve the channels of transmission mechanism in Ukraine with the aim of increasing the effectiveness of monetary stabilization policy. The basic monetary regimes implementation in various countries of the world and the resulting consequences are researched. The benefits of inflation targeting regime for the state’s monetary policy effectiveness enhancing are justified. Recommendations for further implementation of the inflation targeting regime in Ukraine are provided.

الاقتصاد الجزائري : الأزمة والمخرج = Algerian Economy : Crisis and Outcome

الأزمة الاقتصادية | عجز الموازنة العامة | صندوق ضبط الموارد | أسعار النفط | الزراعة العضوية | السياحة الإسلامية | Economic Crisis | State Budget Deficit | Revenue Regulation Fund | Oil Prices | Organic Agriculture | Islamic Tourism

Institutional Design of the Aca Health Insurance Exchanges: Factors Affecting Policy Implementation in State Administration

In state implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance exchanges, sixteen states decided to create and administer their own exchanges, determining the institutional location of the exchanges. This institutional design of implementing organizations affects aspects of state policy implementation of the health exchanges, reflecting the intentions of state officials to exert control over the administration of operations and other decisions such as funding sources. This research examines whether state decisions regarding agency assignment of the ACA health exchanges were associated with political, economic, and historical-cultural explanations. This study provides evidence that, in the decision of the location of health insurance exchanges, state officials were influenced by the factors of state budget shortfalls and state histories of creating independent agencies, but not by divided government, compound divided government and state personnel capacity.

Ivan Franko National University of Lviv

The transformation processes of the Central and Eastern European countries, the financial liberalization, the privatization, the import substitution policy of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are investigated. The European integration processes peculiarities of the CEE countries and Ukraine are highlighted. The macroeconomic indicators of the CEE countries and their compliance with the Maastricht Treaty, which requires achieving macroeconomic stability, adherence to rigorous criteria of the inflation, the state budget deficit, the government debt, the interest rates, and the exchange rate in the applicant countries for accession to the EU are analyzed. It is established the CEE countries in the process of the European integration only partially met Maastricht criteria. It has been determined the common feature of the transition period of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Croatia which was focused on the socio-economic convergence with EU member states. It is established that Ukraine macroeconomic indicators do not correspond to the Maastricht criteria generally at the present stage, however, the indicators stabilization is observed. Particularly there is a steady tendency to reduce the budget deficit and bring it closer to the level of other CEE countries. It is determined that the necessary condition for Ukraine integration into the EU is to reduce the rate of inflation –13% and approaching the group level of Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia with inflation rates within the range of 1–2%. The necessity of accelerating structural reforms and Ukraine European economic integration by system adaptation of the CEE countries experience which successfully completed this process is emphasized. Key words : transitive (transitional) economy; liberalization; privatization; import substitution; CEE countries; Maastricht Treaty; Maastricht criteria; Еurointegration.

ВПЛИВ БЮДЖЕТНОГО ДЕФІЦИТУ НА РЕАЛІЗАЦІЮ СТАБІЛІЗАЦІЙНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ ДЕРЖАВИ

The article reveals the essence of the process of state budget balancing. The key problems connected with the state budget deficit are investigated. The state and dynamics of the Ukraine state budget are considered. The ways of overcoming the consequences of state budget imbalances are analyzed.

ПРИВАТИЗАЦИОННАЯ СОСТАВЛЯЮЩАЯ В ИННОВАЦИОННОЙ ПОЛИТИКЕ ФРАНЦИИ

The author considers the role of the public enterprise sector in France and the use of its resources for the establishment of the Fund for industry and innovation (FII) in the framework of the policy of President E. Macron. Contraction of the state’s presence in the capital of public enterprise is also aimed at reducing the deficit of the state budget deficit and the public debt, which is comparable to the volume of France’s GDP. Such policy also concerns improving of management and increasing of the enterprises’ efficiency. An overview of the public enterprise sector in France is considered along its definition; branch structure is given. Strategic and non-strategic enterprises are distinguished. The state can freely cede its share in the capital of non-strategic ones. Since 1986, the period of “cohabitation” in France of the left socialist president F. Mitterrand and the right-wing Prime Minister J. Chirac (1986–1988), a reduction of state shares in the capital of enterprises took place. The author regards different points of view on the problem of financing risky and long-term innovation programs with the FII. The efficiency of the plans and the real steps to transfer a number of minority shares of the state in order to support the FII are analysed. The author points at the trends to develop public-private partnerships, to create European companies in accordance with the requirements of the global market and the task to modernize France’s economy. E. Macron is sometimes called “liberal–etatist”. His economic policy is technocratic by nature. When necessary, it does not exclude either privatization or temporary nationalization. The results of the reforms announced by E. Macron, including stimulating innovation and public-private partnership, are likely to be seen far beyond his five-year presidential mandate.&nbsp

EFFECT OF A BUDGET DEFICIT ON INFLATION RATE IN VIETNAM

<p>In recent years, Vietnam has achieved high economic growth rate so inflation has become a noticeable problem. The relationship between state budget deficit and inflation is a two-way dialectical relationship. However, within the limit of this article, the author only studies one-way relationship, the effect of budget deficit on inflation rate in Vietnam. Prolonged budget deficit and the remediation of the state budget deficit by different methods have affected the inflation rate on different degrees. This effect is analyzed by many approaches, both quantitative and qualitative, and includes five approaches: impact of fiscal policy inflation, impact of the state budget deficit level on inflation, impact of budget deficit funding on inflation, independence of monetary policy and its effect on inflation, effect of public expenditure on inflation.</p>

ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF UKRAINIAN EXTERNAL DEBT IN CRISIS CONDITIONS

This scientific work has been devoted to research one of the most important categories of economic development, namely the government debt of Ukraine. The state budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover this deficit has led to the formation of a significant increase in government debt in Ukraine. The current economic situation in Ukraine is characterized by threatening the growth of the debt burden, which is one of the basic factors slowdown of the economy. The main reasons for the growth of public debt are: an unprecedented political crisis and the continued military conflict in the east; deep economic recession caused by the rearrangement of economic ties with international partners and the destruction of infrastructure and industrial projects in parts of the country; funding the state budget deficit from government borrowing, which growth is largely due to increasing defense spending and public debt service. The large size of the internal and external debt, increase of costs for maintenance of this debt necessitated to solve the problem of national debt, and therefore find ways to improve its management mechanism. The more burdensome accumulated external and internal debt are for the state, the more maintenance involved in the interaction with the functioning of the economy and its financial system. Classification of external debt of Ukraine is proposed in the article, which will help to identify financial threats that Ukraine faces. It also was reviewed and analyzed the structure of external debt dynamics for the 2008-2015.

Strategic use of evidence in state-level policymaking: matching evidence type to legislative stage

Although there has been a growth of scholarly interest in research utilization in the policy process, how advocates strategically deploy different types of evidence to influence lawmakers remains not well understood. In this paper we draw on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and the Narrative Policy Framework to show how various types of evidence — from empirical findings to personal narratives — were utilized by an advocacy coalition during the two years leading to the passage of California’s historic 2010 law to extend foster care to age 20. The result was a generous and flexible entitlement policy passed with bipartisan support in the context of a recession, a state budget deficit, and an ambivalent governor. We find that advocates strategically accessed the expertise of a variety of actors to showcase different types of evidence at specific moments in the legislative process. Advocates first used research evidence to convince lawmakers that the bill would be an effective solution to a known problem, then used professional expertise and benefit-cost analysis to convince them it would come at an acceptable cost, and finally used personal narratives to motivate them to act. We conclude that though cost-benefit analyses play an integral role in policymaking during a time of austerity, advocacy coalitions may benefit from their connections with professionals and citizens whose personal narratives lend emotional potency and urgency.

EDB Macroreview, May 2017. Recovery in Trade between the EDB Countries

The stabilisation of commodity prices and the resultant stabilisation of national currencies in most EDB countries in 1Q 2017 create a favourable basis for a recovery in trade in the EDB region. Suffice it to note that all EDB countries showed growth in mutual trade turnover in 1Q of the year; notably, the highest turnover growth rates were observed in Kazakhstan (nearly 41% y-o-y) and the Russian Federation (33.7% y-o-y). The considerable growth rates in trade turnover between the Republic of Belarus and EDB countries (30.2% y-o-y) may receive additional impetus now that the Russian-Belarusian agreement on the prices and supplies of energy commodities has been concluded. The situation with the countries’ mutual ties also improved as regards migrants’ remittances: growth in remittances to Kyrgyzstan exceeded 54% in 1Q 2017, while in Armenia this indicator was 14% y-o-y in 1Q 2017. The situation was the opposite in Tajikistan, where migrants’ remittances in 4Q 2016 decreased by 39% compared with the same period the previous year. In this review, our special report focuses on macroeconomic ties among the EDB countries and the economic growth transmission channels, mainly as regards foreign trade and remittance flows. Our study testifies to a considerable role of these factors in the regional countries’ economic recovery, but we also note that the region’s economies remain highly vulnerable to external shocks, and to energy price fluctuations above all. Apart from trade turnover and remittance growth, this year’s recovery in economic cooperation between the countries has been boosted by the signing of the Customs Code by the EAEU countries, the agreement reached on the elimination of obstacles to the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour in the EAEU (the White Book), the instruments of the EEC Council and Collegium aiming to create a single Eurasian pharmaceuticals market that enter into force in May 2017, the energy price agreement reached between Russia and the Republic of Belarus, and the signing of instruments between the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic on the provision of technical and financial assistance to Kyrgyzstan in adapting its economy to membership of the Eurasian Economic Union. Also notable are the issue of a new USD 300 million tranche of the EFSD loan to the Republic of Belarus and the decision of the Russian Federation to write off Kyrgyzstan’s USD 240 million debt at once. Further easing of monetary policy based on a considerable slowdown in inflation, which has reached record-low levels in the Russian Federation, is additional potential stimulus for accelerated economic growth in most EDB countries this year. In addition to the interest rate reduction effect, investment growth in the EDB countries may be supported by an inflow of foreign direct investment, given both its relatively low base in the past few years and an improving external background. That said, the opportunity to deploy a public budget boost is still limited, as the EDB countries’ budgets remain insufficiently adapted to lower and more volatile commodity prices. Russia’s economic growth outlook for 2017 has improved from 0.8% to 1.3%. The projection change was influenced by the first quarter’s economic data and a revised oil price projection that took into account the first quarter’s trends in world energy prices. The improvement in the Belarusian GDP projection from minus 0.5% to positive 1.3% over 2017 is caused by higher than expected economic activity recovery rates in the 1st quarter and by the agreement reached on gas prices and oil supply from the Russian Federation. Kazakhstan’s improved GDP outlook is caused by stronger external demand and by the expansion of the State budget deficit with a view to revitalising the banking system. More optimistic assumptions concerning the foreign economic situation and a revised fiscal boost were the main factors behind the improved GDP outlook for Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan’s economic growth projection was revised downwards as its banking sector situation deteriorated. A key risk for the remainder of 2017 is renewed volatility in the commodity markets after a period of strengthening exchange rates of some EDB countries’ currencies. Early May developments in both the Russian and Kazakh financial markets showed that, after a considerable strengthening in the preceding months, the national currencies have become more sensitive to increased volatility in oil prices. With some developing markets’ currencies overvalued, the oil price volatility factor may be compounded by increased Fed rates, which may additionally pressurise developing countries’ currencies. We expect that, given the increased external risks, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may harden its rhetoric and slow the reduction in the key rate in the coming months.

Improving Biosurveillance Systems to Enable Situational Awareness During Public Health Emergencies.

Improving Biosurveillance Systems to Enable Situational Awareness During Public Health Emergencies.

ВПЛИВ ДЕРЖАВНОГО БОРГУ НА ФІНАНСОВУ БЕЗПЕКУ УКРАЇНИ

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

ДЕМОГРАФІЧНІ ДЕТЕРМІНАНТИ СОЦІАЛЬНИХ РИЗИКІВ ТА ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ЇХ ПРОЯВУ НА РИНКУ ПРАЦІ ПІД ЧАС ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19

Current article considers theoretical approaches to the consistency of the term "social risk", outlines their classification features. The impact on the labor market of quarantine restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic was investigated, the sequence of manifestation of social risks associated with a decrease in the level of economic activity was determined. Ukraine has been in conditions of economic and political instability since 2014, which was the result not only of a “hybrid war” from Russia (the main trading partner at that time), but also of chronic inefficiency of state and corporate governance. The 2020 pandemic only intensified the stagnation of the economy, with an annual GDP contraction of 4%. The labor market has undergone negative changes, basic social indicators have get worse − employment of the population and the level of unemployment; the number of labor migrants abroad has decreased and, accordingly, money transfers from abroad have reduced too; incomes of the population decreased due to a reduce of salary, partial or full loss of job,suspension ortermination of activities of individual entrepreneurs and selfemployed persons. The difference between the number of the active and inactive population is growing, which increases the social pressure on the employed population. Of the 15915.3 thousand employed persons, the number of insured persons was only 12823.5 thousand, while the number of retirees was 11131.0 thousand, that is, the coefficient of demographic dependence of the pension system in Ukraine is 0.87 (the number of retirees per one worker). Disbursement on social payment, excluding pensions, in Ukraine are 8-20 times less than in the closest European neighbors; despite the fact that the number of citizens living below the poverty line is 2-5 times higher than the indicators of neighboring countries. The consequence of the COVID-19 crisis was not only a drop in GDP, but also an increase in the state budget deficit to 5.3% of GDP in 2020 and to 5.5% of GDP in 2021. There is a growing risk that repeated waves of COVID-19 and unacceptably slow roll-out of vaccination will undermine optimistic forecasts for the domestic economy for the next decade.

БОРГОВА БЕЗПЕКА ДЕРЖАВИ У СИСТЕМІ КРЕДИТНИХ ОПЕРАЦІЙ УРЯДУ УКРАЇНИ : ЕКОНОМІКО-МАТЕМАТИЧНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ

В статті розглянуто боргову безпеку як невід’ємний елемент фінансової безпеки держави. Проведено регресійний аналіз державного боргу та основних макроекономічних показників. Визначено методологічні засади розрахунку індексу боргової безпеки держави: порядок розрахунку індексу, перелік індикаторів боргової безпеки держави, вагові коефіцієнти індикаторів та їх порогові значення. Проведено аналіз стану боргової безпеки України у 2008-2015 рр. та здійснено перевірку одержаної моделі за допомогою кореляційної матриці. Обгрунтовано доцільність застосування спрощеної моделі індексу борової безпеки держави.

Аналіз сутності та стану державного боргу.

In the article the scientific going is systematized near interpretation of concept «National debt». The state of national debt of Ukraine is analysed for 2013-2016, as one of factors of influence on development of economy, the factors of influence on the origin of national debt are certain. The question of promissory policy is investigational, expedience and efficiency of which will be instrumental in the leadingout of Ukraine from critical position and defence of its financial safety. It is concluded that excessive attraction of funds on under-profitable conditions, along with irrational use of them, hinders long-term economic growth of the country. To settle accounts with creditors, the country is forced to divert more and more resources from the needs of social and economic development. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in state budget expenditures, and the curtailment of capital investments. Based on the results of the survey, it was noted that the structure of Ukraine's public debt should be shifted to the dominance of domestic debt obligations over external debt. Borrowings should be carried out mainly in the national currency. Only an effective debt policy can improve the level of debt security, reduce the size of the state budget deficit and contribute to the economic strength of the country.

Konsep dan Aplikasi Sukuk Negara dalam Pembiayaan Defisit APBNdi Indonesia

Increasing government expenditure which is not accompanied by increasing country Income can cause an enhancement State Budget deficit, so far, the government still fond to cover up budget deficit with foreign debt, where foreign debt is never apart from the interest as of the loan. Therefore, alternative way accordance with the principles of shari’ah which can become a source of financing of the state budget deficit need to issued. This research aims to know more in the concept of the sovereign sukuk issuance in state budget financing and to discover position of sovereign sukuk in state budget deficit in Indonesia. this research use literature study. To discuss more in and achieve the goal, attempting to collect data both primary and secondary. The processing of collecting data method of observation which is the first step to see and get the necessary data with how to observethe intensively books and other data source. Then analyzed using the way of thinking of the induction-deductions method to draw a conclusion. In order to analyze which conveyed more depth, continued analysis using descriptive analysis techniques analysis. This research results that sovereign sukuk potential to be developed as an alternativein accordance withthe principles of shari’ah which can become a source of financing the deficit with 3 publishing mechanism, namely Private placement, book building and auction. Position of sovereign sukuk in state budget deficit in 2010- 2014 is not clear because the deficitincrease from IDR 46.8 Trillion to IDR 241.5 Trillion, but in 2014- 2015 budget deficit decrease from IDR 241.5 Trillion to IDR 222.5 Trillion, while the financing of thestate budget deficit sourcefrom the issuance of the sovereign sukuk on2014-2015 experiencing an increase of IDR 265 Trillion to IDR 298 Trillion, that the allocationslook more detailed, transparent and orderly manner . And willreducethe budget deficit.