Spread Of Crisis Research Articles

Advisory Opinion 001/2020 on the Right to Participate in the Government of one's Country in the Context of an Election held During a Pandemic such as the COVID-19 Crisis (Afr. Ct. H.P.R.)

One of the many implications of the measures taken to contain the spread of the COVID-19 crisis was the potential limitation of citizens to participate in their governments, namely through free, fair, and transparent elections. Recognizing the risks this would pose to political stability and governmental legitimacy in Africa, the Pan African Lawyers Union (PALU) submitted a Request for an Advisory Opinion to the African Court of Human and Peoples' Rights (the Court) on the right of citizens to participate in the government of their country in the context of an election during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Court's Opinion was that the decision to conduct or postpone elections was a matter of domestic law, but that any such decision had to comply with regional and international standards on restriction and suspension of rights during emergencies.

Two Green Micellar HPLC and Mathematically Assisted UV Spectroscopic Methods for the Simultaneous Determination of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir as a Novel Combined COVID-19 Antiviral Regimen.

Following the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, a race was initiated to find a successful regimen for postinfections. Among those trials, a recent study declared the efficacy of an antiviral combination of favipiravir (FAV) and molnupiravir (MLP). The combined regimen helped in a successful 60% eradication of the SARS-CoV-2 virus from the lungs of studied hamster models. Moreover, it prevented viral transmission to cohosted sentinels. Because both medications are orally bioavailable, the coformulation of FAV and MLP can be predicted. The developed study is aimed at developing new green and simple methods for the simultaneous determination of FAV and MLP and then at their application in the study of their dissolution behavior if coformulated together. A green micellar HPLC method was validated using an RP-C18 core-shell column (5 μm, 150 × 4.6 mm) and an isocratic mixed micellar mobile phase composed of 0.1 M SDS, 0.01 M Brij-35, and 0.02 M monobasic potassium phosphate mixture and adjusted to pH 3.1 at 1.0 mL min−1 flow rate. The analytes were detected at 230 nm. The run time was less than five minutes under the optimized chromatographic conditions. Four other multivariate chemometric model methods were developed and validated, namely, classical least square (CLS), principal component regression (PCR), partial least squares (PLS-1), and genetic algorithm–partial least squares (GA–PLS-1). The developed models succeeded in resolving the great similarity and overlapping in the FAV and MLP UV spectra unlike the traditional univariate methods. All methods were organic solvent-free, did not require extraction or derivatization steps, and were applied for the construction of the simultaneous dissolution profile for FAV tablets and MLP capsules. The methods revealed that the amount of the simultaneously released cited drugs increases up until reaching a plateau after 15 and 20 min for FAV and MLP, respectively. The greenness was assessed on GAPI and found to be in harmony with green analytical chemistry concepts.

Early Warning Systems for Banking Crisis and Sovereign Risk

The global financial crisis and, also, the pandemic situation, have generated the need for early warning systems, which can predict, in due time, the emergence and spread of banking crises. Macrostability deterioration can increase the country's risk.

Understand COVID-19 through Heavy Metals Pollution

The quick spread of COVID-19 crisis and fast emergence of new variants of it , dissimilar clinical forms from silent to exaggerated ones , misunderstanding of etiologies , mode of transmission, variable effectiveness and side effects of vaccines and absence of comprehensive and efficient treatment protocols , heavy spread in certain continents and on less in others a lot of questions arise from the variables mentioned above need answer. In this review I introduced my hypothesis about origin of COVID-19 , its later variants and the main mode of transmission of the virus, the role of mutagenic heavy metals in emergence and the rising of the pandemic and explained the relationship between COVID-19 and malaria. Scattered information used to compose it. Experimental studies are required to test it.

Re-examining the Contagion Channels of Global Financial Crises: Evidence from the Twelve Years since the US Subprime Crisis

This study examines the contagion of the US subprime crisis across the world by focusing on four transmission mechanisms: macroeconomic fundamentals, political similarities, international trade and financial linkages. Using spatial analysis and a sample of 36 countries from 2002 to 2018, we find that all four contagion channels contribute to the rapid spread of financial crises around the world, with international trade and financial linkages playing the most prominent roles. Countries with higher inflation and domestic credit or lower exchange rates and current accounts tend to suffer more from financial crises.

Підходи до оцінки впливу криз неекономічного походження на соціально-економічну систему України

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodical approach to assessing the consequences of crises of non-economic origin and their synergistic effect for Ukraine. The article analyzes contemporary approaches to identifying the economic consequences of crises of natural, biological and military origin and shows that the situation in Ukraine is characterized by a layering of consequences of crises of both military and biological origin, which complicates the assessment. A classification of the consequences of crises of non-economic origin is proposed, which includes the scope of manifestation of consequences, pace and sequence, scale, duration of impact and time of occurrence, and is aimed at choosing methods for assessing and predicting the consequences. A schematic diagram of a scientific-methodical approach to assessing the consequences of crises of non-economic origin has been developed, which involves an assessment that is carried out in four dimensions: the direction of assessment (in accordance with the sphere of manifestations of the crisis), the subjective-objective (in accordance with the methods of assessment used), the temporal (in accordance with the stages of the emergence and unfolding of the crisis), and macro-mesoeconomic (in accordance with the scale of the crisis) dimensions, and thus allows to form a cognitive map of the consequences of a crisis of a certain etiology. It is shown that for Ukraine in the current crisis, it is expedient to single out two stages of assessment: the 1st – the deployment of the pandemic, the 2nd – military aggression against the background of the pandemic, as well as the use of expert assessment methods at the second stage. Based on the analysis of world experience, indicators for assessing the consequences of the crisis are proposed. The developed scientific-methodical approach allows to identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, to define causal relationships in the process of spreading in the economy and social sphere of the country of the crisis caused by both the pandemic and military aggression, is of universal nature, and can be used for researching the crises of various non-economic origins, also for developing a system for monitoring and preventing the spread of crises.

Світ після COVID-19: демократія VS авторитаризм

Розглянуто проблему розвитку світового порядку, становлення політичного ладу суспільств після COVID-19. Доведено, що кризи в Європі ХХ ст. спричиняли появу як авторитарних, так і відновлення альтернативних демократичних режимів. Визначено, що COVID-19 може стати поворотним моментом епохи глобалізації, втрати довіри до демократії та зміцнення авторитаризму.

Research on Liberal Arts Education Based on Philosophical Reasons from the East and the Westt - Focusing on the conversation between Socrates and Confucius -

인문학의 위기 라는 말이 유행처럼 번지고 있지만 어느 누구도 위기의 본질에 대해 설득력있게 말하지 못한다. 동서양의 철학은 인문학적으로 오랜 세월에 걸쳐 만들어지는 학적 탐구의 성과물이다. 그리고 동서양 철학을 공부하는 사람으로서 동․서양의 철학적 사유sms 현실의 사태를 예리하게 분석하고 그것을 철저하게 정교한 언어로 서술하고 그것에 바탕을 두어서 지속해서 의심해 보는 학적 행위이다. 철학이 접근하기 어려운 이유는 전적으로‘teaching’에 있다고 판단하였다. 본 논문은 동서양의 철학적 주요 사유의 경향들을 바탕으로 한 교양 교육 방법론을 개발하는 것이 연구의 목적이다. 본 연구는 스스로 철학함을 실천하는 방식으로 동양철학에서 공자의『논어(論語)』와 서양철학에서 소크라테스의『파이돈』을 교양교육을 위한 교재로 도입한다. 이를 통해 지금까지 다소 모호한 외연과 애매한 의미가 있는 철학이라는 개념에 대해 명확히 선을 긋고, 그 안에 새로운 철학교육 방법론을 제시할 수 있을 것이다. 이를 위해 동양 철학적 사유 경향 중 그 대표적인 예로 유가 사상의 핵심인물인 공자의 전형적인 대화법을 통해 교양 교육법을 추론해 내고자 한다. 한편으로는 서양철학의 대표적 인물로 소크라테스를 선정하여 그의 대화법을 통해 교양 교육의 방법론을 찾아보고자 한다.Despite the spread of the term crisis of humanities , no one can speak convincingly about the nature of the crisis. The philosophy of the East and the West is the result of academic inquiry that has been made over a long period of time in the field of humanities. Both Eastern and Western philosophical thinking represents an academic act that sharply analyzes a real situation, describes it in a thoroughly elaborate language, and continuously generates doubts based on it. It has been judged that the reason why philosophy has been difficult to access is entirely in its teaching. The purpose of this paper is to develop a liberal arts education methodology based on the trends of major philosophical reasons in the East and the West. To this end, as a representative example of the Eastern philosophical thinking trend, this paper infers a liberal arts education law through the typical dialogue method of Confucius, the central figure of Confucianism. On the other hand, Socrates is selected as a representative figure of Western philosophy, and likewise a methodology of liberal arts education is inferred through his dialogue method.

An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States

AbstractThis paper develops a discrete‐time epidemiological model to characterize the spread of economic deterioration across sectors in the United States for the period 1952–2015. It is the first model to apply an epidemiological approach to consider such spread using macroeconomic Flow of Funds data. By extending the usual one‐period Markov model to a two‐period setting, we incorporate the possibility that an initial slow growth period may either continue further or improve such that further economic deterioration is averted. The estimated model can be used to classify more versus less contagious sectors and identify their channels of transmission.

Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and call for action.

Type 2 diabetes continues to be a serious and highly prevalent public health problem worldwide. In 2019, the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world at 12.2%, with its associated morbidity and mortality, was found in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition to a genetic predisposition in its population, evidence suggests that obesity, physical inactivity, urbanization, and poor nutritional habits have contributed to the high prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in the region. These risk factors have also led to an earlier onset of type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents, negatively affecting the productive years of the youth and their quality of life. Furthermore, efforts to control the rising prevalence of diabetes and its complications have been challenged and complicated by the political instability and armed conflict in some countries of the region and the recent coronavirus disease 2019. Broad strategies, coupled with targeted interventions at the regional, national, and community levels are needed to address and curb the spread of this public health crisis.

The paradox of "remote working" in Covid-19 pandemic times: disability, inclusion, and accessibility in Brazil

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have adopted social isolation as a strategy to fight and limit the spread of the global crisis of Covid-19, which has impacted organization processes and employee's relationships with one another. Several issues such as the lack of accessibility and adaptations on work routines, that were already present in people with disabilities' life in the work environment are now highlighted, bringing to light theoretical debates and practical discussions about the experience of using technological accommodations as possible strategies for promoting accessibility and inclusion. Based on narratives of people with different corporalities in this contemporary shifting reality, in this article, we aim to reflect on how accessibility issues are being managed in labor practices in Brazil. More precisely, we seek to understand the role and effects of this new use of technology on social inclusion and exclusion of people with disabilities in the times and spaces where they work remotely due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The impact of coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) on education: The role of virtual and remote laboratories in education

To avoid the spread of the COVID-19 crisis, many countries worldwide have temporarily shut down their academic organizations. National and international closures affect over 91% of the education community of the world. E-learning is the only effective manner for educational institutions to coordinate the learning process during the global lockdown and quarantine period. Many educational institutions have instructed their students through remote learning technologies to face the effect of local closures and promote the continuity of the education process. This study examines the expected benefits of e-learning during the COVID-19 pandemic by providing a new model to investigate this issue using a survey collected from the students at Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was employed on 179 useable responses. This study applied Push-Pull-Mooring theory and examined how push, pull, and mooring variables impact learners to switch to virtual and remote educational laboratories. The Protection Motivation theory was employed to explain how the potential health risk and environmental threat can influence the expected benefits from e-learning services. The findings revealed that the push factor (environmental threat) is significantly related to perceived benefits. The pull factors (e-learning motivation, perceived information sharing, and social distancing) significantly impact learners' benefits. The mooring factor, namely perceived security, significantly impacts learners’ benefits.

The “War” Against Covid-19: State of Exception, State of Siege, or (Constitutional) Emergency Powers?: The Italian Case in Comparative Perspective

AbstractIs the Covid-19 pandemic changing the constitutional-power structures of our democracies? Is this centennial public health emergency irreversibly constraining our liberties? The paper examines recent state-measures of containment during the initial phase of spread of the Covid-19 crisis. It compares primarily the Italian scenario with the Chinese and the American one. It asks whether the measures adopted particularly in the Italian case (known as DPCMs) amount to a state of exception or to a use of emergency powers. Cognizant of the authoritarian risks in severed enjoyments of constitutional rights, the authors conclude that this is not what occurred in the case of solid democracies. At the level of governmental analysis, the “decree” strategy of the Italian DPCMs allude to paternalistic forms of power-exercise that empty the self-determining prerogative of the parliament.

Analysis of Contagion in Emerging Markets

The spread of crises from one country to another, named “con tagion”, has been one of the most debated issues in international finance in the last two decades. The presence of contagion can be detected by the increase in conditional correlation during the crisis period compared to the previous period. The paper presents a brief review of three of the most used techniques to estimate conditional correlation: exponential weighted mov ing average, multivariate GARCH models and factor analysis with stochastic volatility models. These methods are applied to analyze the contagion be tween the stock market of three major Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina) and two emerging markets (Malaysia and Russia). The data cover the period from 09/05/1995 to 12/30/2004, which includes several crises. In general, the three methods yielded similar results, but there is no general agreement. All the methods agreed that the contagion occurred mostly during the Asian crisis.

Role of Hungarian Local Governance in Responding to COVID-19 Crisis

This paper analyses and points out the preventive and protective measures undertaken by Hungarian local authorities to halt the spread of the COVID-19 crisis and ensure the safety of citizens. It is conducted in an empirical, qualitative manner. In doing so it covers Hungarian legislation and official documents from central and local authorities. Firstly, the paper gives a comprehensive overview of the Hungarian local government system by highlighting the types and powers of local authorities. Secondly, it discusses the specific preventive and protective measures introduced by the different local authorities within their competencies and then explores some challenges and opportunities faced by Hungarian local authorities. This paper determines the importance of local governance for an efficient response to COVID-19 in Hungary despite limited resources and powers. Accordingly, the state’s long-term investment in local government and improvement is primordial.

A Social Psychological Study for the Establishment of a Safety Culture in the Era of the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Concepts of Collective Memory and Civic Competence

사람들은 한 사회에서 생활하면서 위험 상황에 직면했을 때 누구나 불안한 심리상태를 경험하게 된다. 위험을 통해 나타나는 인간의 반복적인 심리상태는 그들 자아와 정체성을 스스로 기획하게 유도한다. 위험에 대한 불안은 신체적, 정신적 상태에 대한 스스로의 인식 속에서 시작되며, 그 구체적 위험 상황에 대한 인지는 현재 상태에 대한 경험으로만 이루어지는 것은 아니다. 과거 집합기억을 통해 공동체 내 타인과의 관계에서 함께 나타나는 습관적 인식 속에서 위험의 감정적 수용 과정이 이루어지는 경우가 많다. 현재 한국사회에서 생활하고 있는 사회구성원들은 과거 전쟁, 산업화, 민주화 과정에 대한 집합기억의 세대 간 분절화 현상이 코로나19 사태를 맞이하여 위험에 대한 집합기억의 탈분절화 현상으로 전이되는 경험을 하고 있다. 다양한 바이러스의 확대, 경제 위기 등의 위험에 대한 동시대적 집합기억에 기반을 둔 불안을 경험하고 있는 현재 시점에서 인간 감정을 연구하는 것은 위험과 안전에 대한 연구의 근본적인 출발점이 될 수 있다. 이제 안전에 대한 인간의 감정적 수용 과정은 안전문화에 대한 신뢰 속에서 연구되어야 한다. 그리고 안전문화를 통해 심리적 안정감을 정착시키는 과정에서 과학기술은 중요한 역할을 수행할 수 있다. 이 과학기술의 건전한 활용을 위한 인간 사이의 신뢰 관계는 곧 한 사회의 시민역량에 의해 그 수준이 결정된다. 이처럼 인간의 안전문화를 정착시키기 위한 연구는 인간의 감정, 불안, 기억, 위험, 안전, 건강 등 인간의 실존적 문제와 함께 복합적으로 연구되어야 한다.People who live in a society experience an unstable psychological state when facing a dangerous situation. The repetitive psychological state of humans by risk induces them to form the self and identity. People s anxiety about danger comes from their awareness of physical and mental state, and the specific dangerous situation is not always recognized through the experience of the present state. The emotional acceptance of risk is more often made in the habitual recognition appearing in the relationships with others in the community through collective memory in the past. The members of Korean society are currently facing that the generational fragmentation of collective memories of war, industrialization, and democratization processes is changed to the de-segmentation of collective memories of risk due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As people are experiencing anxiety from the contemporary collective memory of risks such as the spread of various viruses and economic crises, studies on safety can begin with human emotions. Now, the emotional acceptance of safety should be studied with trust in safety culture. And science and technology can play an important role in the process of establishing psychological stability through safety culture. The level of trust between humans to foster the sound use of science and technology depends on the competence of a society. Research on the development of a safety culture needs to be combined with human existential issues such as human emotions, anxiety, memory, danger, safety, and health.

The Effects of Corruption on Teens’ Contributions to the Public Good and the Fight Against COVID-19

This study aims to identify the factors that influence teenagers’ likelihood to contribute to the public good during a public health crisis. I hypothesized that students from countries with higher rates of corruption would be less likely to contribute financially and through personal health measures to combat the current COVID-19 pandemic. Using an electronic survey, I gathered data from 276 high school students in seven countries where there are varying levels of corruption. The data includes demographics (age, gender, religiosity), personal COVID-19 remediation behaviors, and answers to two game theory experiments. The two experiments were the Public Goods Game, a classic experiment in behavioral economics, and the Government Trust Game, a variant of my own creation modeled after the Trust Game experiment. Analyses of these data reveal global consistency in teens’ willingness to contribute financially to the public good, regardless of the level of perceived local corruption. However, in more corrupt environments, there exists less trust among teens that their peers will donate as generously, less trust of government to provide a positive return on financial contributions, and less pro-sociality of health behaviors. Additionally, subjects who were more trusting of their community, practiced more pro-social health behaviors. I conclude that teenagers’ financial altruism is not affected by perceived corruption, but trust that others are equally altruistic, and willingness to take pro-social health precautions, is highly dependent on corruption. My results also indicate that the establishment of trust in more corrupt communities may be key in slowing the spread of COVID-19 and future public health crises.

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Urban Water Cycle

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global crisis spreading to all countries. This study explains and documents the first-order effects of the new coronavirus on the urban water cycle. Urban water systems play an important role in public health because people rely so heavily on water services. Findings address short- and long-term changes in climate variables; availability and accessibility of clean water to prevent and control the spread of coronavirus in water-scarce cities; shifts in habits, behavior, and lifestyles of people and effects on water demand during lockdowns; and role of wastewater treatment in preventing the spread of coronavirus.

Evaluation of Policy Effectiveness by Mathematical Modeling for the Opioid Crisis with Spatial Study and Trend Analysis

The current opioid epidemic in the US presents a great problem which calls for policy supervision and regulation. In this work, the opioid cases of five states were used for trend analysis and modeling for the estimation of potential policy effects. An evaluation model was established to analyze the severity of the opioid abuse based on the entropy weight method (EWM) and rank sum ratio (RSR). Four indexes were defined to estimate the spatial distribution of development and spread of the opioid crisis. Thirteen counties with the most severe opioid abuse in five states were determined using the EWM-RSR model and those indexes. Additionally, a forecast of the development of opioid abuse was given based on an autoregressive (AR) model. The RSR values of the thirteen counties would increase to the range between 0.951 and 1.226. Furthermore, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was adopted. The previous indexes were modified, incorporating the comprehensive socioeconomic effects. The optimal penalty term was found to facilitate the stability and reliability of the model. By using the comprehensive model, it was found that three factors—VC112, VC114, VC115—related to disabled people have a great influence on the development of opioid abuse. The simulated policies were performed in the model to decrease the values of the indicators by 10%–50%. The corresponding RSR values can decline to the range between 0.564 and 0.606. Adopting policies that benefit the disabled population should inhibit the trend of opioid abuse.

Urban Strategies for Managing the Coronavirus Crisis

The management of the spread of the Coronavirus crisis is one of the main challenges in the world today, and of increasing importance due to the widespread spread of the epidemic and its negative repercussions on local communities around the world, which put local administrations on the front lines to address the pandemic and take the lead in mitigating its effects. The article attempts to develop a theoretical and applied model to manage the crisis of the outbreak of the Coronavirus in urban areas by monitoring and analyzing the forms of local administrations' response to the pandemic and mitigating its negative repercussions on local communities and the health of the population. The article is also considered a scientific contribution learned from global experiences in pandemic management by formulating a scientific methodology in the form of urban strategies and clarifying their direct objectives, stages of work, and their application methods at the urban level to serve as a base on which local administrations rely in their work to reach the recovery stage. تعتبر إدارة أزمة انتشار فیروس کورونا إحدى التحدیات الرئیسیة فی العالم الیوم، وذات أهمیة متزایدة نظراً للانتشار الواسع للوباء وتداعیاته سلبیة على المجتمعات المحلیة وصحة السکان فی جمیع أنحاء العالم، الأمر الذی وضع الإدارات المحلیة فی الخطوط الأمامیة للتصدی للجائحة وتولی زمام المبادرة فی التخفیف من أثارها. ویحاول البحث وضع نموذج تطبیقی لإدارة أزمة تفشی فیروس کورونا فی المناطق الحضریة من خلال رصد وتحلیل أشکال استجابة الإدارات المحلیة للجائحة. کما یعد البحث مساهمة علمیة مستفادة من التجارب العالمیة فی إدارة الجائحة من خلال صیاغة منهجیة علمیة على شکل استراتیجیات حضریة وتوضیح أهدافها المباشرة ومراحل عملها، وآلیاتها التطبیقیة على المستوى الحضری لتکون بمثابة قاعدة تستند علیها الإدارات المحلیة فی عملها وصولاً إلى مرحلة التعافی.