Spill Model Research Articles

Hindcast of oil spill pollution in the East China Sea in January 2018

In this study, an integrated model is developed for studying the Sanchi oil spill event, which occurred in the East China Sea in January 2018. The results of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW) as well as the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) are used for meteorological forecasting and the hydrodynamic simulations, respectively. These data are adopted as inputs for the OpenOil, a sub-module of OpenDrift, for the oil spill model. Some reference experiments are examined for short-term hindcast. The satellite image is used to validate the numerical result. The oil slicks of the satellite image and the numerical result are of similar shapes. Quantitatively, the simulated oil slick and that from the satellite image are located closely and have similar dimensions of 56 km by 34 km and 54 km by 29 km, respectively. It is found that the accurate results can be obtained by the proposed integrated model with the high-frequency (hourly) and high-spatial-resolution data as inputs, and the wind drift factor has to be added. The long-term 1-month simulation showed that most of the oil particles would move to the northeast of the sinking location and be trapped by the Kuroshio current.

Development and testing of a 2D offshore oil spill modeling tool (OSMT) supported by an effective calibration method

An Oil Spill Modeling Tool (OSMT) has been developed in this study to predict the transport and fate of oil spills resulting from surface releases. Particularly, the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence method is adopted as a performance metric for the first time to formulate a calibration framework for spill trajectory prediction (STP) from the Lagrangian transport model (LTM). By finding the candidate with minimal KL divergences from modeling scenarios using designed parameter combinations, the prediction discrepancy between simulated trajectories of the LTM and oil slicks detected from satellite images is reduced. The developed approach has been evaluated through a comparison analysis between OSMT and Operational Oil Modeling Environment (GNOME) model. Subsequently, a real case study is conducted to examine the applicability and effectiveness of the OSMT. The study results indicate that OSMT can provide reliable spill trajectory simulations, and the KL divergence-based calibration method is effective in calibrating the oil spill LTM.

Ecological Insurance of Arctic Oil and Gas Producing Shelf Projects in Russia

The article deals with problems of ecological insurance of arctic oil and gas producing shelf projects in Russia and possible ways of its development. The authors put forward the method of estimating financial security of operations on eliminating possible ecological damage in case of hydrocarbon spill on arctic shelf oil and gas producing fields and study oil spills on arctic shelf fields ‘Prirazlomnoye’ and ‘Pobeda’. They estimate the cost of measures aimed at elimination of such incidents and propose a special indicator, i.e. financial loss factor for oil spill. Empiric conclusions obtained by comparative analysis of legislation in the field of ecology of entrails use in Russia, Norway, the US and Canada can be used for optimization of the effective Russian legislation and introduction of obligatory ecological insurance. Data of mathematic spill modeling can be applied by insurance companies for calculating insurance premium, by Rosprirodnadzor – for charging penalties and for other supervision bodies – for underwriting oil and gas arctic projects.

Bridging the lab to field divide: Advancing oil spill biological effects models requires revisiting aquatic toxicity testing

Oil fate and exposure modeling addresses the complexities of oil composition, weathering, partitioning in the environment, and the distributions and behaviors of aquatic biota to estimate exposure histories, i.e., oil component concentrations and environmental conditions experienced over time. Several approaches with increasing levels of complexity (i.e., aquatic toxicity model tiers, corresponding to varying purposes and applications) have been and continue to be developed to predict adverse effects resulting from these exposures. At Tiers 1 and 2, toxicity-based screening thresholds for assumed representative oil component compositions are used to inform spill response and risk evaluations, requiring limited toxicity data, analytical oil characterizations, and computer resources. Concentration-response relationships are employed in Tier 3 to quantify effects of assumed oil component mixture compositions. Oil spill modeling capabilities presently allow predictions of spatial and temporal compositional changes during exposure, which support mixture-based modeling frameworks. Such approaches rely on summed effects of components using toxic units to enable more realistic analyses (Tier 4). This review provides guidance for toxicological studies to inform the development of, provide input to, and validate Tier 4 aquatic toxicity models for assessing oil spill effects on aquatic biota.Evaluation of organisms’ exposure histories using a toxic unit model reflects the current state-of the-science and provides an improved approach for quantifying effects of oil constituents on aquatic organisms. Since the mixture compositions in toxicity tests are not representative of field exposures, modelers rely on studies using single compounds to build toxicity models accounting for the additive effects of dynamic mixture exposures that occur after spills. Single compound toxicity data are needed to quantify the influence of exposure duration and modifying environmental factors (e.g., temperature, light) on observed effects for advancing use of this framework. Well-characterized whole oil bioassay data should be used to validate and refine these models.

Molecular dynamics investigation of the asphaltene-kaolinite interactions in water, toluene, and water-toluene mixtures.

Understanding the interactions of petroleum asphaltenes with mineral surfaces is important for diluted bitumen spill response and modeling. In this study, molecular dynamics and umbrella sampling simulations are performed using interfacially active and non-interfacially active asphaltene model compounds individually positioned near each of the surfaces of kaolinite in the presence of explicit solvent environments containing water, toluene, and mixtures of toluene and water in varying proportions. The interfacially active asphaltene bonds the strongest to the silicon oxide surface of kaolinite in pure water and the bonding weakens to nearly zero in toluene-water mixtures. The non-interfacially active asphaltenes bond to kaolinites silicon oxide surface in water about half as strongly as the interfacially active one in water and the bonding weakens in the presence of toluene. The number of non-hydrogen bonded contacts between the interfacially active asphaltene and the aluminum hydroxide surface of kaolinite increases as the proportion of toluene is increased and the contacts with water are decreased. In these conditions, the non-interfacially active asphaltenes do not form non-hydrogen bonded contacts with kaolinite. On the silicon oxide surface, the number of non-hydrogen bonded contacts of all asphaltenes with kaolinite tends to decrease as the proportion of toluene is increased and the contacts with water are decreased. The number of hydrogen bonds of the interfacially active asphaltene with water decreases as the proportion of toluene is increased. The radii of gyration indicate that the interfacially active asphaltene is extended in water and when adsorbed on kaolinite, and becomes compact as the proportion of toluene is increased. The simulation results highlight the competitive interfacial interactions in the complex scenario of diluted bitumen spills in the presence of water and clay minerals.

Numerical Simulations of Sudden Oil Spills in Typical Cross-Border Rivers in the Yangtze River Delta Region

The Taipu River is an important cross-border river in the Yangtze River Delta region and a direct channel connecting Taihu Lake and Huangpu River. Along the main stream of the Taipu River are many sources of water, such as the Wujiang, Dingzha, and Liantang Rivers. Many boats traverse these rivers transporting a wide variety of goods, including large quantities of oil, chemicals, and other dangerous goods. In the event of accidents on these vessels, spilled cargo will directly threaten the drinking water safety of people in the region. Aiming at simulating and assessing the environmental risks of sudden oil spills in rivers in the Yangtze River Delta region, this paper established a two-dimensional oil spill model of the typical transboundary Taipu River based on the MIKE21 water environment numerical simulation software developed by the Danish Institute of Water Conservancy. The established model will improve emergency response and treatment plans as well as our understanding of river oil spill progressions.

An innovative coupling technique for integrating oil spill prediction model with finite volume method-based ocean model.

Marine oil spill pollution have increased recent years, threatening the safety of the marine environment. This paper proposes a coupling technique: Fast Mapping & Addressing(FMA) that integrates the oil spill model with oceanographic model. The FMA technique is based on hash function and spatial quadtree algorithm to achieve efficient addressing from an unstructured to a structured grid. The oil spill model simulates the oil spill process, while the ocean model simulates the ocean currents. The efficiency is improved about ten times compared to the interpolation algorithm. Results reveal the difference between the simulation results of the ocean model and the measured data is minimal, with an MAE(Mean Absolute Error) and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) of about 0.06m. Moreover, two oil spill events in China's nearshore were selected to simulate and verify the results. Indeed, our model's results agree with the observed data, demonstrating that our model can achieve a satisfied simulation of oil spill.

Estimating evaporation rates and contaminant air concentrations due to small spills of non-ideal aqueous organic solvent mixtures in a controlled environment

Although small spills of non-ideal organic solvent mixtures are ubiquitous undesirable events in occupational settings, the potential risk of exposure associated with such scenarios remains insufficiently investigated. This study aimed to examine the impact of non-ideality on evaporation rates and contaminant air concentrations resulting from small spills of organic solvent mixtures. Evaporation rate constants alphas (α) were experimentally measured for five pure solvents using a gravimetric approach during solvent evaporation tests designed to simulate small spills of solvents. Two equations were used for estimating contaminants’ evaporation rates from aqueous mixtures assuming either ideal or non-ideal behavior based on the pure-chemical alpha values. A spill model also known as the well-mixed room model with exponentially decreasing emission rate was used to predict air concentrations during various spill scenarios based on the two sets of estimated evaporation rates. Model predictive performance was evaluated by comparing the estimates against real-time concentrations measured for the same scenarios. Evaluations for 12 binary non-ideal aqueous mixtures found that the estimated evaporation rates accounting for the correction by the activity coefficients of the solvents (median = 0.0318 min−1) were higher than the evaporation rates estimated without the correction factor (median = 0.00632 min−1). Model estimates using the corrected evaporation rates reasonably agreed with the measured values, with a median predicted peak concentrations-to-measured peak concentrations ratio of 0.92 (0.81 to 1.32) and a median difference between the predicted and the measured peak times of −5 min. By contrast, when the non-corrected evaporation rates were used, the median predicted peak concentrations-to-measured peak concentrations ratio was 0.31 (0.08 to 0.75) and the median difference between the predicted and the measured peak times was +33 min. Results from this study demonstrate the importance of considering the non-ideality effect for accurately estimating evaporation rates and contaminant air concentrations generated by solvent mixtures. Moreover, this study is a step further in improving knowledge of modeling exposures related to small spills of organic solvent mixtures.

Modelling of marine debris pathways into UK waters: Example of non-native crustaceans transported across the Atlantic Ocean on floating marine debris

The long-distance transfer of non-native, potentially invasive species via floating marine debris is an increasing threat to biodiversity and conservation efforts. To address the lack of understanding around mechanisms and pathways of species transfer via marine debris, a novel modelling approach was applied to recreate the likely trajectory and source of a large piece of debris fouled by non-native species collected from UK marine waters. This approach applied the Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) simulation tool, an adapted oil spill modelling programme, which was informed by a combination of biological trait information for the foulant species, marine debris characteristics and hydrodynamic data. The modelling output suggested an origin in the Western Atlantic, a scenario concurrent with the known distribution of the foulant species. This modelling approach represents a valuable tool with which to determine the origin and trajectory of invasive species transferred via marine debris.

Prediction model and consequence analysis for riverine oil spills

Long-distance oil and gas pipelines play an important role in ensuring energy imports, but can cause riverine oil spills and threaten public health and the environment. The emergency disposal of spilled oil is affected by a number of factors such as the difficulty of disposal and the long recovery cycle; however, there are deficiencies in the understanding of river oil spills. In this study, a prediction model of the river oil spill trajectory based on the random walk particle tracking algorithm was constructed. The performance of the model was tested by simulating the Enbridge Line 6B Oil Discharge scenario occurred in the United States in 2010. The temporal and spatial variations of the oil pollution zone in downstream and vertical directions were studied, and the interception effects on the arrival time of oil in key sections were obtained. Results showed that after the spilled oil entered the surface water body, the tiny oil droplets generated by crushing can remain underwater for a long time, making them difficult to detect and intercept. It can further combine with suspended particles in the water, settle, and pollute the riverbed, which has a greater potential for harm and risk. The model offers helpful information for the first-phase emergency response for riverine oil spills.

Modeling Time-Dependent Aquatic Toxicity of Hydrocarbons: Role of Organism Weight, Temperature, and Substance Hydrophobicity.

Oil spill exposures are highly dynamic and are not comparable to laboratory exposures used in standard toxicity tests. Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models allow translation of effects observed in the laboratory to the field. To improve TKTD model calibration, new and previously published data from 148 tests were analyzed to estimate rates characterizing the time course of toxicity for 10 fish and 42 invertebrate species across 37 hydrocarbons. A key parameter in the TKTD model is the first-order rate that incorporates passive elimination, biotransformation, and damage repair processes. The results indicated that temperature (4-26 °C), organism size (0.0001-10 g), and substance log octanol-water partition coefficient (2-6) had limited influence on this parameter, which exhibited a 5th to 95th percentile range of 0.2-2.5 day-1 (median 0.7 day-1 ). A species sensitivity distribution approach is proposed to quantify the variability of this parameter across taxa, with further studies needed for aliphatic hydrocarbons and plant species. Study findings allow existing oil spill models to be refined to improve effect predictions. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;41:3070-3083. © 2022 ExxonMobil Biomedical Science Inc. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

SPILLMOD – МОДЕЛЬ ГИДРОДИНАМИЧЕСКОГО ТИПА ДЛЯ ИНФОРМАЦИОННОЙ ПОДДЕРЖКИ РЕАГИРОВАНИЯ НА РАЗЛИВЫ НЕФТИ В МОРЕ

A mathematical model of the evolution of marine oil spills with taking into account the processes of spreading and weathering, has been implemented as a software package called SPILLMOD. In doing so, a new Eulerian-Lagrangian method for Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been developed in the context of solving shallow-water-type equations with the capability to handle the situation where advancing/vanishing layer of the light fluid (oil) only partially covers the heavy (water) in a domain with an arbitrary configuration of the coastline shape. When calculating the evaporation of high-viscosity oil types, the effect of reduction the evaporation rate due to molecular diffusion of lighter oil fractions within the oil layer is taken into account. Simulation of the natural dispersion of oil layer is carried out considering multiple factors, such as: sea surface conditions, experimental data on oil film crushing in the wave mixing layer, turbulent diffusion in the upper layer, as well as changes of physical and chemical properties of oil over time. An additional module in the model is designed to estimate domain boundaries of possible spill detection for different sources of uncertainties during oil spill modeling. Modeling examples of application in realistic configuration of port-water areas for an actually occurred emergency situation of oil spill demonstrate the declared qualities of the model as a tool for supporting emergency response operations.

Simulating and Predicting Offshore Oil Spills by Using Cellular Automata

In recent years, offshore oil spill accidents have caused substantial damage to both marine organisms and marine ecology. Accurate simulation and prediction of oil spills could provide a scientific basis for assessing losses due to oil spills and provide support for emergency decisions regarding oil spills. We analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing oil spill models and constructed an offshore oil spill model based on cellular automata (CA). By considering both the flow field and wind field, we formulated new CA rules for the diffusion and drift of a pollution zone, and in our model, the cellular state in eight-neighborhood mode is updated in accordance with these rules, which makes the model suitable for dynamic simulation of offshore oil spills. We also constructed a model on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for evaluating the oil spill grade. Finally, we developed a software system, the Ocean Oil Spill Information System (OOSIS), which includes all necessary functions such as basic operations, data management, information query, oil spill analysis, and oil spill assessment. OOSIS is used to verify the constructed oil spill model, and the sea breeze and current data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration were used to realize the dynamic simulation and prediction, grade evaluation, and cleanup plan generation for offshore oil spill.

Oil Spill Modeling for the Mariner Oil Field, East of Shetland, United Kingdom, North Sea

Oil Spill Modeling for the Mariner Oil Field, East of Shetland, United Kingdom, North Sea

Numerical Study on the Influence of Model Uncertainties on the Transport of Underwater Spilled Oil.

Oil pollution influences marine biology, ecology, and regional sustainable development capacity, but model uncertainties limit the ability of the numerical model to accurately predict the transport and fate of the underwater oil spill. Based on a three-dimensional underwater oil spill model validated by satellite images of the oil slick at the sea surface, the Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident in the Bohai Sea was simulated; in addition, several sensitivity experiments were set up to investigate the influence of model uncertainties in the background wind, current, start time of the oil spill, and spill site on the transport of underwater spilled oil in the Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The experimental results indicate that the uncertainty in the background wind has a certain impact on the simulated centroid position at the sea surface, and little effect on the simulated underwater results, while the uncertainty in the background current has a significant influence on the transport of the underwater spilled oil both at the sea surface and underwater. An uncertainty of 24 h in the start time of the oil spill can cause more than 1 time larger than the benchmark case displacement of the oil spill centroid point and sweeping area at the sea surface, as the periodic tidal current is the main constituent of the ocean current in the Bohai Sea. The uncertainty in the spill site has a large influence on the final position of the oil spill centroid point, but the oil spill trajectories do not intersect with each other within 48 h, which makes it possible to identify the oil spill platform from the actual observations. The influence of uncertainties in the important model inputs and key model parameters on the transport of underwater spilled oil in the Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident is evaluated for the first time, which is of substantial significance for improving the prediction accuracy of the transport and fate of underwater oil spills.

Development and testing of a SOSM approach to examine the natural attenuation of oil spillage on shorelines

Understanding the fate and behavior of spilled oil on the shoreline is crucial for helping decision-makers make trade-offs between natural attenuation and shoreline treatments. In this study, primary processes of oil attenuation and translocation on the shoreline, including penetration, washout, and biodegradation, have been considered to develop a numerical model, Shoreline Oil Spill Model (SOSM), for predicting the fate of spilled oil in various shoreline geological compartments. A holistic system design is employed to develop a user-friendly graphical interface system for SOSM. Global and local sensitivity analyses are used to examine the importance of the input factors on different outputs in SOSM. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the input of oil spill mass correlates positively with the oil retention and surface and subsurface oil mass, while the oil concentration and penetration depth are sensitive to the grain size of the beach sediment. Subsequently, the SOSM is tested to hindcast the fate of stranded oil from the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Reasonable validation results have been obtained for the study site. It confirms the utility of the SOSM to examine and predict the level of shoreline oil contamination in the field following accidental spill events.

The bibliometric analysis and visualization mapping of net environmental benefit analysis (NEBA)

This paper aims to determine the worldwide research trends on searching queries of “oil spill* and risk assessment*” and “net environmental benefit analysis” and its most productive authors and journals. A bibliometric approach was performed to analyze publications including highly cited papers and only papers that were published in the Dimensions database from 2000 to 2022, April was selected. The necessary data were extracted from the Dimensions database and processed using visualization and mapping software such as VOSviewer 1.6.17 and Tableau Public 2021.1. The findings identified significant study fields, co-cited authors, country contributions, productive journals, as well as the most cited authors' articles. This study contributes significantly to the relevant studies as one of the few that utilizes bibliometric analysis as a network visualization and mapping technique for the analysis of one of the primary oil spill response decision-making tools and risk assessment sciences. The findings of this study can assist the researcher perform their research more effectively by providing insight into journal selection, contributing authors, research trends, countries, and keywords. Further research is recommended in light of longer period data contained in oil spill response strategies, oil spill modeling, or oil spill risk subjects.

Climate Change Impacts on Coastal and Offshore Petroleum Infrastructure and the Associated Oil Spill Risk: A Review

Climate change has been observed worldwide in recent decades, posing challenges to the coastal and offshore oil and gas infrastructure. It is crucial to identify how climate change affects these infrastructures and the associated oil spill risk. This paper provides an analysis of the vulnerability of coastal and offshore oil and gas infrastructure in response to climate change. The paper examines oil spill incidents worldwide and addresses climate change’s possible influences on oil spill risk. Moreover, available oil spill modeling and decision support tools for oil spill response are reviewed considering climate change. The paper signals the need for emerging decision and modeling tools considering climate change effects, which can help decision-makers to evaluate the risk on time and provide early warnings to adapt or prevent the unforeseen impacts on the oil industry partially resulting from global warming, including oil spill accidents.

Applying finite-time lyapunov exponent to study the tidal dispersion on oil spill trajectory in Burrard Inlet

This study used a combination of Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponent (FTLE) values, residual currents, and tidal excursion lengths to systematically investigate the effects of tidal dispersion on oil spill trajectories in Burrard Inlet, BC, Canada, which is a tidally dominated estuary. The FTLE analysis results showed that tidal type and tidal phase significantly influenced the FTLE fields because the flow structure and the location of saddle points varied as a function of the tidal type and tidal phase. Some transport barriers formed in the Inner Harbour, which blocked the water exchange between the western and eastern parts of the inlet. Moreover, tidal mixing in the wider regions of Burrard Inlet (i.e., the western Outer Harbour) was relatively weak than in the narrower areas (i.e., First Narrows and Second Narrows). The observations from the FTLE analysis agreed well with the residual currents and tidal excursion results. The drifter trajectories were consistent with the Lagrangian coherent structure lines extracted from the FTLE analysis. To verify the tidal dispersion impact on an oil spill trajectory in the inlet, the FTLE fields were compared with a real oil spill that occurred in Burrard Inlet in 2015 (the M/V Marathassa oil spill). The FTLE fields reasonably explained the spilled oil’s trajectories from the real event. In addition, a set of stochastic oil spill models were run in this study and found that the FTLE analysis was a reliable tool for oil spill tracking. Overall, the FTLE method would be a valuable addition to practical oil spill response planning.

Diluted bitumen-induced alterations in aerobic capacity, swimming performance, and post-exercise recovery in juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka).

The transportation of heavy crudes such as diluted bitumen (dilbit) sourced from Canadian oil sands through freshwater habitat requires the generation of information that will contribute to risk assessments, spill modelling, management, and remediation for the protection of aquatic organisms. Juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were exposed acutely (96 h) or subchronically (28 d) to the water-soluble fraction (WSFd) of Cold Lake Blend dilbit at initial total polycyclic aromatic compound (TPAC) concentrations of 0, 13.7, 34.7, and 124.5 µg/L. A significant induction (>3-fold) of hepatic liver ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity was induced by 96 h in fish exposed to [TPAC] ≥ 34.7 µg/L and at ≥13.7 µg/L for a 28 d exposure. Exposure resulted in a typical physiological stress response and disturbance of ion homeostasis; this included elevations in plasma [cortisol], [lactate], [Na+], and [Cl-], and significant reductions in muscle [glycogen]. Critical swimming speed (Ucrit) was significantly reduced (28.4%) in the acute exposure at [TPAC] 124.5 µg/L; reductions of 14.2% and 35.4% were seen in fish subchronically exposed at the two highest concentrations. Reductions in Ucrit were related to significant reductions in aerobic scope (24.3-46.6%) at [TPAC]s of 34.7 and 124.5 µg/L, respectively. Exposure did not impair the ability to mount a secondary stress response following burst exercise, however, the time required for biochemical parameters to return to baseline values was prolonged. Alterations in critical systems supporting swimming, exercise recovery and the physiological stress response could result in decreased salmonid fitness and contribute to population declines if a dilbit spill occurs.