Real Estate Speculation Research Articles

Real estate speculation: volatile social forms at a global frontier of capital

This paper provides an anthropological perspective on speculation in housing by using the idea of ‘social form’ as the analytical lens. Instead of seeing speculation as a matter of individual orientation to risk/profit, or as a statistical tendency in a market, the advantage of ‘social form’ is that it introduces the dynamic complex of relations in which actors’ decisions are made. The case examined here is the purchase of housing ‘off plan’ in contemporary Russia, which is a variation of the form found elsewhere in the world. Both developers and purchasers of real estate are engaged in speculation and the main tension in their relations derives from their mutual dependency while having different goals, rationalities and visions of the future. In the wider political-economic context, speculation in housing clashes with two differently organized social forms: the virally spreading protest associations of ruined purchasers and the regional power hierarchies of the business-cum-government world.

Índice de áreas verdes como estratégia ao desenvolvimento urbano sustentável das Regiões Norte, Noroeste e Meia Ponte de Goiânia-GO, Brasil

O trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar o percentual de áreas verdes nas Regiões Norte, Noroeste e Meia Ponte da cidade de Goiânia-Goiás, Brasil. Foi aplicado o Índice de Áreas Verdes (IAV), conforme princípios metodológicos que utilizam indicadores dependentes da demografia, expressos pela relação de superfícies de áreas verdes por habitantes. Para a quantificação do IAV, foram utilizadas técnicas de interpretação de imagens de sensoriamento remoto na elaboração do mapa de cobertura vegetal, associada à técnica dasimétrica de mapeamento da densidade demográfica. Como resultado, obteve-se a avaliação entre a distribuição espacial do iav, o quantitativo populacional e a qualidade ambiental urbana. Observou-se que existe uma correlação de desigualdade entre o nível quanti-qualitativo dos espaços verdes, em que estes estão subordinados à especulação imobiliária e à sua manutenção.Ideias destacadas: artigo de pesquisa que consiste na aplicação de ferramentas da geotecnologia para o mapeamento do índice de áreas verdes na cidade de Goiânia e sua relação com a qualidade ambiental urbana.

In Union There Is Strength: Philadelphia in the Age of Urban Consolidation by Andrew Heath

Reviewed by: In Union There Is Strength: Philadelphia in the Age of Urban Consolidation by Andrew Heath Mary P. Ryan (bio) In Union There Is Strength: Philadelphia in the Age of Urban Consolidation. By Andrew Heath. (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2019. Pp. 296. Cloth, $49.95.) A detailed and nuanced study of the city of Philadelphia during the Civil War era, In Union There Is Strength draws direct connections between local politics and nation building. In seven deeply researched chapters, Andrew Heath narrates the period between the 1840s and the 1870s on two fronts, the urban and the national, and concludes that the "entangled projects" of "economic development, territorial conquest, and civil war transformed a divided republic into a nation state" (5, 4). The multiple connections Heath draws between urban, sectional, and national history, although sometimes strained and anticipated many years ago by Robin Einhorn,1 are powerfully suggestive and should command the attention of all scholars of the Civil War era. The discreet subject matter of In Union There Is Strength is "urban consolidation," which Heath defines in two ways. The first definition is simple enough: it refers to the act of the municipality of Philadelphia, dated 1854, that annexed over a hundred outlying square miles to the central city. Heath attributes more elaborate meanings to what he terms small-c consolidation, defined as "the tightening of affective or associational ties: as any process that brought individuals or communities into closer communion" (5). This second meaning of consolidation drives much of Heath's account of the antebellum period and challenges Sam Bass Warner's classic depiction of antebellum Philadelphia as "the private city," where individual interests came to triumph over the public good.2 Heath demonstrates how both the civic leaders he classifies as "bourgeois" and the radical champions [End Page 120] of workingmen forged bonds of solidarity that transcended individualism, creating something akin to class consciousness. The major spokesmen for consolidation were the editors of newspapers, especially Morton McMichael of the North American, affiliated first with the Whigs and later the Republican Party. Heath relies on reform writings, like those of George Lippard, author of the sensationalist novel The Quaker City: or, The Monks of Monk Hall (1845), to document the ethic of solidarity among the workingmen who resided in the industrial suburbs during the disorder of the 1840s. As the book proceeds more deeply into the Civil War era, bourgeois boosters carry much of Heath's argument forward. Heath backs up his primary documents with a resourceful use of secondary sources. His account of the spatial and material underpinning of urban expansion is especially illuminating. Chapters 3 and 4 ground the concept of consolidation in the conversion of the annexed territory into residential lots, the beautification of the central district, and the extension of streetcar lines. Consolidation enlarged and solidified the political power of the developers of city suburban property, from real estate speculators to the construction trades to private corporations, including railways (a coalition that sociologists label the urban growth coalition). Heath calls this consolidated territory "a suburban frontier" whose expansion was likened to "manifest destiny" (156). The association between urban annexation and the Civil War was material as well as metaphorical, forged, for example, by financiers like Jay Cooke, who invested in improving the central district of Philadelphia at the same time that he managed the Union debt as it grew more than fourfold to $2.6 billion. The links between urban politics and nation building were also cast in iron when the municipality of Philadelphia supplied the initial capital for constructing the Pennsylvania Railroad. That private corporation, poised to become the largest in the world, faced the postwar period looking west, not south, and even beyond, toward the markets of Asia. As told by Andrew Heath, the history of Philadelphia between the 1840s and the 1870s is a story of the unification of the North and the West into one nationally, even internationally, integrated economy. The trajectory of urban political economy was clear by war's end; in Heath's account it seemed to displace slavery and the American South from the center of the national narrative. The Philadelphia bourgeoisie were never very...

Os investimentos públicos em áreas verdes e a produção do espaço urbano em Campos dos Goytacazes (RJ)

The presence of green areas, such as parks, squares and gardens in urban space, is a factor of contribution for the valorization of the soil in some Brazilian cities. From the discourses of environmental quality and sustainability, the ―nature‖ is highlighted and its attributes are put as irrefutable indicators for improving the quality of life. However, as public investments in green areas also contribute to real estate speculation, they tend to favor processes of socio-spatial segregation. The city of Campos dos Goytacazes/RJ has been undergoing significant urban transformations in the last decades that were intensified by the arrival of the Logistics and Industrial Complex of Porto do Acu (CLIPA) and the dynamization of the oil economy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the public investments in green areas in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes/RJ, as well as to identify the presence of these spaces in the urban network in the district of the city. For the methodological structuring of the research, in addition to the specialized literature on the theme and to the selected area, we conducted documentary research in the city's Official Gazette and semi-structured interviews with municipal managers and the public who frequent such green areas, clarifying the decision-making process for the destination public resources to these areas and assessing them qualitatively. Among the results, we can see the scarcity of green areas in Campos, and most of these areas are located in the neighborhoods with higher income and soil value, which favors, in this sense, the population of high socioeconomic status. We also noticed that the public authorities have not been prioritizing the maintenance of green areas, as many are in a state of abandonment and in the process of deterioration, thus compromising their full use by the visitors. Real estate agents have been appropriating the ―nature‖ discourse to sell their properties both in neighborhoods with more environmental amenities and in gated communities, which reinforces the idea that nature is restricted only to people who have a certain purchasing power. In this sense, we hope that this work will collaborate with the broadening of the debate on the creation of green areas in the municipality, contributing to the implementation of public policies and reducing segregationist practices

Lowcountry at High Tide: A History of Flooding, Drainage, and Reclamation in Charleston, South Carolina by Christina Rae Butler, and: The Place with No Edge: An Intimate History of People, Technology, and the Mississippi River Delta by Adam Mandelman

Reviewed by: Lowcountry at High Tide: A History of Flooding, Drainage, and Reclamation in Charleston, South Carolina by Christina Rae Butler, and: The Place with No Edge: An Intimate History of People, Technology, and the Mississippi River Delta by Adam Mandelman John Dean Davis Christina Rae Butler. Lowcountry at High Tide: A History of Flooding, Drainage, and Reclamation in Charleston, South Carolina. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 2020. ISBN: 9781643360621 Hardcover: 304 pages Adam Mandelman. The Place with No Edge: An Intimate History of People, Technology, and the Mississippi River Delta. Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 2020. ISBN: 9780807172834 Hardcover: 304 pages Fifty percent of the land under Charleston, South Carolina is artificial. The effort to transform what was a "marshy, flood prone finger of land" into one of the U.S. South's most important coastal cities has been nothing short of monumental.1 Christina Rae Butler's Lowcountry at High Tide: A History of Flooding, Drainage, and Reclamation in Charleston, South Carolina recounts in detail this centuries-long struggle between the city and the geology of the soft landscape on which it was built. Charleston, like much of the lowcountry coastal plain along the southeast and Gulf coasts, has historically been a place where what we know (or think we know) about building becomes irrelevant or, at least, significantly transformed. Butler divides the building of modern Charleston into three categories that outline reclamation, filling, and drainage as distinct modes of construction, each with their own design, engineering, and labor issues, means of financing, and assembly of political support. At the heart of the construction of Charleston is an alliance between public health and private investment that has shaped the city's margins into profitable and mosquito-free building lots. Butler's accounting, however, for the various causes and effects of urban expansion goes beyond simply parsing how much bureaucratic paternalism and naked real estate speculation might be responsible for urban form. Instead, this construction history acknowledges the technical and environmental aspects of city development, placing much needed emphasis on how labor, race, and class played important roles in raising the city from the mud. Butler's technical knowledge and familiarity with building practices animate just how laborious the city-building process was. Charleston lacked durable building materials, making [End Page 125] stone masonry prohibitively expensive and forcing ad hoc and creative construction methods. Using archival specifications and bid documents, Lowcountry at High Tide details building practices, describing palmetto gabions and cribs, pile-driving machines, and even the sequencing of planks and placement of bricks. This level of detail provides an excellent case study for the material history of construction and humanizes citybuilding as both personal and bodily practice. Butler interleaves a larger citywide narrative with portraits of hard work in moments of crisis. For example, in an episode describing a frantic three-shift construction effort while centrifugal pumps kept the waters at bay behind a cofferdam, the reader can appreciate Butler's technical skill in illuminating what the stakes really were. Lowcountry at High Tide's focus on the scavenger provides its most fascinating intervention in urban historiography. Scavengers, who were mostly Black, appear as the true urban maintainers, essential for the city's function and responsible for much of its surface area. Scavengers swept streets of all sorts of detritus and then used this organic fill to plug the city's overly deep cellars and marshy pits. The fight over the geographical limits of Charleston's grade line was extensive, lasted hundreds of years, and was waged with weapons of clay, sawdust, and all manner of urban filth. Black scavengers formed the front line of this struggle. There was little concealed about the way Charlestonians felt about this kind of work, relegating this essential but truly odious task to marginalized sections of an urban society with a strict racial and class hierarchy. More urban histories might benefit from centering these castaway characters and how they underpin the civic and economic functions that occupy most historians' attention. The alliance between public-minded, progressive governance reforms and lucrative private investment set the stage for the explosion of development in the twentieth century that formed Charleston's modern...

Recife-Olinda a Última Fronteira: A Importância de Estuários e Manguezais em Meios Urbanos

Located on the administrative border between the cities of Olinda and Recife, the Beberibe River estuary receives constant anthropic influence and its mangrove is the target of growing real estate speculation. The aim of this manuscript is to analyse the decline of mangroves present the Beberibe estuary margins in resulting (access or restriction) in the period from 1974 to 2014. The analyses are made using Geographic Information Systems to assess pressure and urban expansion. The results indicate that there are 30% of mangroves in the study area and that urban growth caused great losses to the mangrove ecosystem that is visible in the representations in the period 1974 - 2014. In view of the emerging paradigms of urban growth, there are new possibilities for physical connection and conceptual between these two cities based on the convergence between the historically linked population. This discussion took place recently in Recife, concerning the José Estelita Wharf, and is currently being repeated for this last frontier of disorderly urban growth. Keywords: Mangroves; Urban Ecosystems; Estuarine Pollution.

Os investimentos públicos em áreas verdes e a produção do espaço urbano em Campos dos Goytacazes

The presence of green areas, such as parks, squares and gardens in urban space, is a factor of contribution for the valorization of the soil in some Brazilian cities. From the discourses of environmental quality and sustainability, the ―nature‖ is highlighted and its attributes are put as irrefutable indicators for improving the quality of life. However, as public investments in green areas also contribute to real estate speculation, they tend to favor processes of socio-spatial segregation. The city of Campos dos Goytacazes/RJ has been undergoing significant urban transformations in the last decades that were intensified by the arrival of the Logistics and Industrial Complex of Porto do Acu (CLIPA) and the dynamization of the oil economy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the public investments in green areas in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes/RJ, as well as to identify the presence of these spaces in the urban network in the district of the city. For the methodological structuring of the research, in addition to the specialized literature on the theme and to the selected area, we conducted documentary research in the city's Official Gazette and semi-structured interviews with municipal managers and the public who frequent such green areas, clarifying the decision-making process for the destination public resources to these areas and assessing them qualitatively. Among the results, we can see the scarcity of green areas in Campos, and most of these areas are located in the neighborhoods with higher income and soil value, which favors, in this sense, the population of high socioeconomic status. We also noticed that the public authorities have not been prioritizing the maintenance of green areas, as many are in a state of abandonment and in the process of deterioration, thus compromising their full use by the visitors. Real estate agents have been appropriating the ―nature‖ discourse to sell their properties both in neighborhoods with more environmental amenities and in gated communities, which reinforces the idea that nature is restricted only to people who have a certain purchasing power. In this sense, we hope that this work will collaborate with the broadening of the debate on the creation of green areas in the municipality, contributing to the implementation of public policies and reducing segregationist practices.

Stamp Duty Policy, Housing Speculation, and Property Market Dynamics

Imposing a property tax is a common measure that governments take to regulate speculative real estate activities; however, its effectiveness in cooling market prices is not clear. Starting in 2010, the Hong Kong government introduced a series of Special Stamp Duty (SSD) policies to curb property flippers. We find that although the SSD effectively curtailed flipping transactions from 21.1% in 2010 to 1.3% in 2013, it failed to cool the market price. Primary and secondary property prices increased by 5.7% and 1%, respectively, 1 year after the introduction of SSD. As SSD effectively increased selling costs and prolonged potential sellers’ holding period, supply from the secondary market dried up and homebuyers were crowded into the primary market. Moreover, the influx of homebuyers from mainland China further crowded out local homebuyers, especially in the primary market, in which mainland buyers’ presence increased from 5.6% in 2009 to 19.7% in 2011. Prior to the SSD, local homebuyers enjoyed a 3% discount over mainland buyers in the primary market. However, this price advantage was diminished due to more intensive competition after the SSD. We also investigate flippers’ responses to SSD policies with respect to their holding period. We find that flippers deferred sales until the stamp duty lock-in period ended, then urgently sold the properties at a discount. Further, those who sold within the lock-in period strategically reduced their selling price. Overall, our paper sheds light on the implications of stamp duty policy on speculative activities and real estate market dynamics.

O seriado Chaves e a questão urbana: exclusão, periferização e conflito de classes

Este texto propõe investigar o processo de periferização na cidade do México a partir da segunda metade do século XX, a partir da análise do seriado Chaves. Parte-se de duas interpretações. Em primeiro lugar, que esse processo de favelização e periferização foi parte da expansão urbana e industrial, na qual os mais pobres, os trabalhadores, ficaram à margem. Luta de classes, especulação imobiliária, concentração de renda, são alguns dos sintomas que geraram grandes massas de excluídos, que se concentraram em regiões precárias e distantes dos centros urbanos e econômicos, ainda que servindo de mão de obra a alimentar esse sistema. Em segundo lugar, que a exclusão e periferização pode se dar também no campo social, mesmo que convivendo os excluídos e privilegiados lado a lado ou no mesmo espaço. O recorte temporal, como apontado acima, abrange o período da segunda metade do século XX, com ênfase para a década de 1970.

Narrativas na cidade em álbuns fotográficos

Abordamos as narrativas sobre o Poço da Draga na cidade de Fortaleza-CE a partir de álbuns fotográficos. Partimos das discussões de Certeau (2009); Gagnebin (2006); Assmann (2011) e Bruno (2013; 2014). O Grupo de Estudos e Pesquisas Rastros Urbanos por meio do projeto de extensão “Fotobiografias: a Fortaleza que se Encontra em Acervos Fotográficos Pessoais”, desenvolve trabalhos que objetivam mostrar e socializar essas outras narrativas sobre a cidade. O Poço da Draga está localizado em uma área de grande especulação imobiliária próxima à praia de Iracema, e sofre constantemente com a pressão do poder público e privado para que seus habitantes sejam removidos. Por meio de visitas aos habitantes desse lugar, escutamos suas histórias e conhecemos suas memórias. As fotografias nos permitem conhecer essas biografias individuais e relacioná-las com a biografia coletiva da cidade, repensando as reflexões sobre antropologia urbana, bem como abrem um espaço vivo e potente para uma ação de extensão universitária.

Suburban Villages: Conceptualizing Urban Fringes in a Global Context. The Case of Wangzhai

Early settlements, or “Suburban Villages,” are organized along the Wenruitang water network, a millenary old canal system which structured the territory around Wenzhou. The extension of the urban boundaries from the late 1980’s onward included the rural villages along the Wenruitang in a form of diffused urbanism. Those villages became linked to create an Urban Archipelago, defining an indigenous kind of suburbs. At present, the sevillages are threatened by the constant mutating character of this suburb: the agricultural land preservation policy will preserve the diffuse urban form but puts the burden on the already built areas, i.e. the suburban villages, as the only place of redevelopment, and real estate speculation. Ourresearchprojectaimstodefinethismutatingterritoryandfocusparticularlyonthe relation between the Wenruitang water system and the settlements, within this new suburban situation. Our goal is to show the patterns of its architecture and urbanism in order to propose either a preservation and rehabilitation plan. OurfirstcasestudyisthevillageofWangzhaiinWenzhouinZhejiangProvince.Located on one branch of the Wenruitang water network, Wangzhai village is both typical and specific. As part of these Suburban Villages network, it is typical with its relation to the river, its spontaneous urban development, and its modern vernacular architecture heritage. However it is located within the boundaries of the Sino-American Wenzhou-Kean University, and is part of the planned Kean Town. The objective of our research is to examine the condition of the village in order to propose conceptual tools that might be used for design strategies.

Speculative homemaking: Women’s labour, class mobility and the affect of homeownership in South Korea

Since the 1960s, urban South Korea has seen a series of real estate booms characterised by a huge surge in the construction of apartment complexes and skyrocketing housing prices. In this environment, many South Koreans have begun to view their homes as a source of profit-making. Through in-depth interviews, I examine how women in South Korea have emerged as agents of this urban transformation by engaging in ‘speculative homemaking’, an activity that merges the domestic work of household management with the work of real estate speculation. This article investigates how South Korean women’s gendered practices are embedded in the larger landscape of women’s work for class mobility and reproduction, highlighting class-divergent pathways to homeownership that are propelled by distinct affect – fear, anxiety and ease. Demonstrating how speculative logic pervades the domestic and the everyday, this article foregrounds the significance of gendered labour and affect for the study of urban processes and class formation.

‘The Towers of Terror’: A Critical Analysis of Ernő Goldfinger’s Balfron and Trellick Towers

When J. G. Ballard published his masterpiece High-Rise in 1975, many readers in London automatically identified the apartment building that is the protagonist of the dystopian novel as the infamous Trellick Tower at Kensal Town, certainly one of the most controversial and ambiguous figures of British architecture after World War II. Designed by Ernő Goldfinger, the tower, which had recently been completed, was already considered a symbol of the brutality of contemporary architecture, to the point of gaining the nickname ‘Tower of Terror’ coined by its own inhabitants. Actually, in public opinion the nearly twin sister of the earlier Balfron Tower at Poplar embodied all the ills of urban planning and of the housing policies of the post-war reconstruction. The large size of the project, the uniformity of its facades, the presence of bulky stairwells separated from the main volume, connected by elevated bridges and brandishing the big chimneys of the heating system, the complex apartment layouts on multiple levels, and the intensive use of fair-face reinforced concrete are the factors that shape the extraordinary character of this work of architecture, examined in a relatively small quantity of critical writings, despite the building’s widespread notoriety. The Balfron Tower, commissioned in 1963, and the Trellick Tower commissioned in 1966 have become, for better or worse, icons of British public housing policy, and today they are inseparable parts of the London cityscape. Critical analysis of the original project documents reveals how the typological and constructive reflections at the end of the 1960s had reached a level of extreme sophistication and quality, also in the development of large social housing complexes created for the urban proletariat. Thanks to their outstanding constructed quality and the efficacy of their residential typologies, the towers have stood up to the destructive fury of the last few decades, even becoming Grade II* listed buildings. In recent years, they have gone through a remarkable process of social and generational turnover, coveted as investment properties and involved in processes of real estate speculation.

Land consumption and income in Ecuador: A case of an inverted environmental Kuznets curve.

The ratio of building permits to population is a key indicator to evaluate land consumption. However, few researchers focus on land consumption and its environmental spillovers, for developing countries. The aim of our study, using a Bayesian comparison approach applied to a spatial panel, is to analyse the existence of an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between land consumption and economic development, namely the environmental Kuznets curve, with data that ranges from 2007 to 2015 for 221 cantons in Ecuador. The Bayesian comparison approach allows us to identify: i) the spatial weight matrix that best fits the data, and ii) the best spatial model according to the type of spatial spillovers (local or global). These are both of extreme interest because a knowledge of the extent to which the spatial spillovers spread over space, and their functional form, supports the planning of effective land use policies. The results do not support the inverted U-shaped hypothesis of the Kuznets curve. By contrast, the curvature is convex, which means higher levels of land consumption for higher levels of wealth. Spatial spillovers spread to a limited extent, highlighting an imitation game among agents, both institutions and private agents, in the neighbour locations. Policy implications go from the strengthening of the institutional framework and local tax management, to the urban regeneration to limit real estate speculation. All these interventions should be coordinated among neighbours to avoid freeriding behaviours.

Blaming in the Boom and Bust

In Australian mining towns like Moranbah, relationships between labour, capital and the state have long been defined by struggles over housing amidst cascading cycles of boom and bust linking global commodity markets to local real estate. Most recently, the emergence of ‘fly-in-fly-out’ labour arrangements, partially in response to rampant real estate speculation, have challenged mine workers’ rights to housing and community. Focusing on the schadenfreude that accompanied the public vilification of one failed, small-time real estate speculator as a case study who is contrasted with the figure of the Cashed-up-Bogan, this article shows how accusations of greed are mobilized to political effect. While greed’s tendency to emerge discursively as an accusation might make it seem like an attractive critical discourse, its putative connections to embodiment and the visceral give it an individualizing tendency that allows it to be wielded more easily against persons than institutions, undermining broader structural critiques.

Speculative Policing

This article develops a theorization of “speculative policing”: an experimental, future-oriented form of policing that connects crime prevention to real-estate speculation and other forms of negotiating urban risk and uncertainty. Speculative policing works to establish a specific sociopolitical order; renders economically productive the differentiated and dynamic value of urban spaces and populations; and involves flexible, provisional interventions that anticipate failure and skirt the edges of the law. Speculative policing combines three future-oriented phenomena that engage with risk and uncertainty in different ways: preventive policing, realestate speculation, and experimental modes of governance. These phenomena are in themselves not necessarily new; the specificity of speculative policing lies in the conjunction of these three phenomena in contemporary cities. Their combination implies the emergence of a new mode of urban security governance, a form of political and economic rationality that is speculative both in its underlying logic and in its everyday implementation.

Visualization Research on China’s Housing Purchase Restriction Policy System--Taking Beijing as an Example

The housing purchase restriction policy is an important part of China’s real estate macro-control policy, and its policy objective is to curb the excessive rise of real estate prices. Starting from the Chinese housing purchase restriction policy, this paper combines the content analysis method and the common word analysis method to quantitatively analyze the control policies to curb the “real estate speculation phenomenon”, and sort out the control policy system structure of China’s housing prices to improve the existing government. The control policy system and the introduction of restrictions on purchase policies in other regions provide guidance.

Exploring spatio-temporal hot spots of land price change with housing transaction data in Seoul

Abstract. Evaluating residential property prices or land values is quite important for urban planning and government taxation as well. But it is generally difficult to predict land values accurately due to the dynamics of land prices, particularly in urban areas. Urban land values are mostly affected by natural environmental changes and various social and economic factors (Colwell & Munneke, 1997). Also, such socio economic factors are influencing both temporal and spatial aspects of land value, and therefore spatio-temporal clusters of land price changes will show local variations of land values very well. Specifically, the spatio-temporal hot spots might indicate highly increasing demand of lands in the urban area. In those areas, regulation against real estate speculation must be needed from the public perspective because such areas might impact on other area land prices and ultimately national economic status. Therefore, analyzing spatio-temporal aspects of the land price is essential for efficient urban planning and policy making. In this study, we attempt to detect spatio-temporal hot spots which are constantly increasing the value of residential property among real estate. Although there are many types of differently designated lands including such as commercial, agricultural, and lands for other usage, we focus on the residential lands to estimate land values in this research. The reason for this is because residential house price is substantially increasing and becoming one of sensitive issues of Seoul house market. Therefore, poor people or younger generation cannot afford such high housing expenses in Seoul. Also, house transaction data is much larger than other land usage data, and therefore it can be utilized for estimating land values more precisely. From 2011 to 2016, over 1.8 million housing transactions of lease and sale happened in Seoul. This big data on housing lease and sale transactions indicates the value of each location where the transaction occurred. Specifically, we utilize spatial interpolation method including Kriging and differential local Moran’s I approach based on housing transaction data in Seoul. Housing transaction data includes every transaction for sales and leases of the house for the particular period. By applying these methodologies, we can visualize spatio-temporal clusters of highly increasing land prices and interpret significant clusters in terms of social factors. In fact, land price distribution has been widely discussed associated with smart growth and urban development (American Planning Association, 2002; Kaiser et al., 1995). However, most studies have focused on urban development and expansion, rather than the changes in the land price. Moreover, many studies have applied remote sensing approach to analyze urban land expansion (Xiao et al., 2006; Magigi & Drescher, 2010). Notably, Hu et al., (2013) applied IDW to interpolate and estimating land prices with land samples. However, IDW has a shortcoming to interpolate the value which is distant from the sample points. In addition, even studies focusing on the land price have dealt with only one temporal period. From this research gap, we use the ordinary Kriging and differential local Moran’s I to detect and forecast local hot spots of land price changes. This research has conducted the following steps. At the first step, several transactions for the residential area are consolidated into a single land value indicator. Suppose that the residential rent consists of three factors that are housing price (P), deposit (D), and monthly rent (R). Each factor can be transformed into the value index (V) by the transformation formula below. After calculating the land value index from the transformation, the global trend of the value index is overlaid on each period. Figure 1. Shows the mean value index increased from 2011 to 2016. Then, square cells regularly spaced by 100 meters are generated over study area to perform the ordinary Kriging. After the ordinary Kriging, the land value index is assigned to each grid cell. Finally, differential local Moran’s I index is calculated based on the difference that value index change between each year. V = 0.75 * 0.005 * P + 0.005 * D + R As a result, the global trend of land value changes from 2011 to 2016 in Seoul is shown in Figure. 1. The mean value index is increasing constantly. The spatio-temporal hot spots of land price change are found where the value index increment exceeds the average value index increasing over Seoul. As a result, seven clusters are detected (Figure. 2).

Gentrificación rururbana en ciudades intermedias

Este artículo analiza y discute la naturaleza del proceso de gentrificación rururbana que se está desarrollando en la vereda La Florida en Villamaría (Caldas) y la vereda Clarete (Popayán, Cauca), Colombia. Los casos examinados permiten una revisión teórica-conceptual y normativa que contribuye a esclarecer, desde una perspectiva comparativa, los procesos de gentrificación que vienen ocurriendo en dos ciudades intermedias en Colombia. De un lado, se presenta un proceso residencial intensivo que revela el resultado de una especulación inmobiliaria (caso La Florida), y del otro, se documenta un proceso de transformación territorial que implica un reordenamiento de las relaciones entre campesinos y profesionales citadinos (caso Clarete). Conceptos como el de gentrificación rururbana, territorialidad, territorialización y ordenamiento territorial resultan pertinentes para explicar lo que sucede en la frontera urbano-rural. A nivel metodológico, nos apoyamos en la investigación documental y etnográfica territorial realizada a través de entrevistas abiertas y estructuradas, observaciones, recorridos topográficos, y compendios fotográficos.

The Over-tourism Phenomenon in Bukchon Village and the Life Changes of Local Residents

This study aims to research the unique reasons for local gentrification and touristification in Bukchon village- a place characterized as a historical residence area- through discourse with Bukchon residents, focusing on their perceived drop in the quality of life as well as inter-resident conflicts, both stemming from the over-tourism in the area. Bukchon Renovation Project which began in 2001 was a policy through which the Seoul Metropolitan Government purchased hanoks, used them as a traditional cultural facility, and provided part of the cost of maintaining or managing a hanok in case the residents of Bukchon registered it with the city. While this project was a way to preserve the traditional residential area, it also led to the soaring purchase of hanok by the wealthy, leaving the indigenous people who had been keeping the area for decades to be victims of real estate speculation. In this study, in-depth interviews were applied to understand various phenomena in Bukchon area. Detailed interviews were conducted to understand the residents understanding of over-tourism, and to understand the value recognition and meaning of local tourism or commercialization. To revitalize old urban areas like Bukchon or to utilize the cultural and tourism resources of these areas, a thorough understanding of the identity of local residents, the historical formation process and the specific spatial structure as well as division of the area is an absolute prerequisite. The study emphasizes that the locals should be at the core of the revitalization project. Therefore, long-term policies must be established by the decision of public officials or outside experts with the inclusion of local residents. While their implementation might take time, urban revitalization where the residents are not in the center of the project carries a risk of the loss of cultural identity for the target area.