Specific Weather Events Research Articles

Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO2 emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021–2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961–1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021–2040) over the baseline (1961–1990) varies from +3.4 to −14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.

Evaluation of environmental fate and sinks of PCDD/Fs during specific extreme weather events in Taiwan

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) are persistent organic pollutants (POPs) that are formed and released unintentionally from anthropogenic sources. The high persistence of PCDD/Fs results in the concentrations of these contaminants in environment decreasing only very slowly. Two transport pathways, air and water, carry PCDD/Fs into all regions of the world. Recently, more frequent extreme weather events, such as storms and floods, have been projected to occur as a result of global warming. Extreme weather events have a documented impact on the remobilization and subsequent bioavailability of POPs. In this study, three specific episodes, namely winter monsoon, southeast biomass burning and tropical cyclone (typhoon) events, which influence the environmental fate and transport of PCDD/Fs in Taiwan, were evaluated based on a climate change scenario. During the winter (northeast) monsoon period, the temperature and relative humidity observed in northern Taiwan decreases sharply. During this time, the quantity of PCDD/Fs adsorbed onto suspended particles, as observed at background sites, was found to increase from 300±127 to 630±115pgI-TEQg-TSP−1, which is even higher than that measured in Taipei City (438±80pgI-TEQg-TSP−1). Hence, the winter monsoon not only brings cold air but also transports air pollutants and dust over long distances from mainland China to Taiwan. During the 2010 Southeast Asia biomass burning events (2010/3/22–3/28), the level of atmospheric PCDD/Fs were measured in central Taiwan (Mt. Lulin) and in the source region of northern Thailand (Chiang Mai); this revealed that the variations in atmospheric PCDD/F concentrations at these two sites followed a similar pattern. On 25 March 2010, the atmospheric PCDD/F concentration increased dramatically from 1.43 to 6.09fg I-TEQm−3 at Mt. Lulin and from 7.64 to 12.1fgI-TEQm−3 in northern Thailand. However, the atmospheric PCDD/F concentration decreased dramatically 1day after the biomass burning event. Based on the measurements from a dated sediment core collected at a reservoir in northern Taiwan, the sharp increases in input fluxes of PCDD/Fs and mineral-derived elements levels in 1990 (20ngI-TEQm−2year−1), 2001 (17ngI-TEQm−2year−1), 2004 (16ngI-TEQm−2year−1) and 2005 (15ngI-TEQm−2year−1) seem to be a result of a deep turbid layer formed upstream due to landslides and/or mud flows during the typhoon season. This finding demonstrates the effect of typhoon events on the long-term remobilization of PCDD/Fs as well as supporting the hypothesis that such events would have the potential to remobilize pollutants that have been deposited previously.

Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective

Attribution of extreme events shortly after their occurrence stretches the current state-of-theart of climate change assessment. To help foster the growth of this science, this article illustrates some approaches to answering questions about the role of human factors, and the relative role of different natural factors, for six specific extreme weather or climate events of 2011. Not every event is linked to climate change. The rainfall associated with the devastating Thailand floods can be explained by climate variability. But long-term warming played a part in the others. While La Nina contributed to the failure of the rains in the Horn of Africa, an increased frequency of such droughts there was linked to warming in the Western Pacific– Indian Ocean warm pool. Europe's record warm temperatures would probably not have been as unusual if the high temperatures had been caused only by the atmospheric flow regime without any long-term warming. Calculating how the odds of a particular extreme event have change...

Managing climate risk: extreme weather events and the future of insurance in a climate-changed world

Recent extreme weather events in eastern Australia have again raised questions in the public sphere about the nature of links between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather events. Demonstrating that anthropogenic climate change was wholly responsible for any extreme weather event may never be possible in a system as complex as the Earth's. Yet the extent to which anthropogenic climate change increased the likelihood of some specific extreme weather events occurring can be quantified. However, this article argues that unmitigated climate change threatens not just measurable, increased likelihoods of extreme events, but over time, wholly unpredictable frequencies for extreme weather events. This article asks what the prospects might be for continued provision of insurance in a climate-changed world, for the insurance sector as well as the societies dependent on insurance as a primary tool to manage financial risks. The article argues that ultimately, the only viable way to insure against climate risks will be through effective mitigation of climate change: deep and rapid cuts in emissions now as a ‘premium’ to avoid uninsurable climate risks in the future.

Research Spotlight: Deadly 2010 Russian heat wave not a consequence of climate change

Although some people may try to ascribe specific extreme weather events to climate change, global warming cannot be held responsible for recent weather events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave. Using climate simulations and a comparison against historical conditions, Dole et al. assess the influence of greenhouse gases, aerosols, anomalous sea surface temperatures, and other potential climate forcings on the likelihood and magnitude of the 2010 Russian heat wave. The authors suggest that the heat wave—which lasted from late June to mid‐August and was responsible for thousands of deaths, widespread wildfires, and devastating crop loss—fell well within the bounds of natural climate variability. The authors find that none of the tested climate factors showed appreciable ability to predict the extreme temperatures seen throughout the heat wave. Additionally, the researchers' historical analysis revealed that July temperatures, as well as the temperature variability, for the affected region of western Russia showed no significant trend over the past 130 years. They note that the top 10 hottest July days for the region were distributed randomly across the historical period, although global averages do show clustering in the past 2 decades. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582, 2011)

The effect of Santa Ana wind conditions and cloudiness on Southern California stock returns

Santa Ana wind conditions in Southern California are highly specific and noticeable weather events with a rich anecdotal history of causing negative psychological and physical effects including hypersensitivity. Thus, the Santa Ana wind events offer another means of examining the effect of weather on stock returns and other stock behaviour. This study examines the effects of Santa Ana wind conditions and Southern California cloudiness on individual stock data – which offers a more robust means of identifying stock weather effects. No evidence of a negative influence of Santa Ana wind conditions or Southern California sky cover (cloudiness) on Southern California individual corporation stock returns is found. Inherently, the effect of weather on stock behaviour depends on localized trading by investors located in the geographic area of the weather occurrence. Several proxies for local ownership of Southern California stocks are examined in relationship to their effect on Southern California stock return we...

Editorial: Special Issue on Regional Climate Studies

This special issue of Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics focuses on the wide range of regional climate studies which increasingly are being carried out around the globe. For convenience, the 20 papers in the special issue are divided into three groups embracing modeling, observational, and theoretical topics, respectively. The modeling studies include basic principles of climate modeling, ensemble size estimations, the impact of aerosols, orography, the hydrologic cycle and the carbon cycle, and the modelling of monsoons, jets and specific severe weather events such as tropical cyclones. The observational papers cover the fundamental roles of heat fluxes and moisture, documents trends in these variables over East Asia, the southwest Indian Ocean, Australia and discusses their consequences. The theoretical analyses address the important roles of teleconnections and the occurrence of extreme weather events.

Real-time storm detection and weather forecast activation through data mining and events processing

Each year across the USA, destructive weather events disrupt transportation and commerce, resulting in both loss of lives and property. Mitigating the impacts of such severe events requires innovative new software tools and cyberinfrastructure through which scientists can monitor data for specific severe weather events such as thunderstorms and launch focused modeling computations for prediction and forecasts of these evolving weather events. Bringing about a paradigm shift in meteorology research and education through advances in cyberinfrastructure is one of the key research objectives of the Linked Environments for Atmospheric Discovery (LEAD) project, a large-scale, interdisciplinary NSF funded project spanning ten institutions. In this paper we address the challenges of making cyberinfrastructure frameworks responsive to real-time conditions in the physical environment driven by the use cases in mesoscale meteorology. The contribution of the research is two-fold: on the cyberinfrastructure side, we propose a model for bridging between the physical environment and e-Science1 workflow systems, specifically through events processing systems, and provide a proof of concept implementation of that model in the context of the LEAD cyberinfrastructure. On the algorithmic side, we propose efficient stream mining algorithms that can be carried out on a continuous basis in real time over large volumes of observational data.

Long-term climate and weather patterns in relation to crop yield: a minireview

It is accepted knowledge that weather affects yields and climate dictates which crops will grow in a region. Specific weather events, such as drought or hail, that affect yield or quality, are known, as are the general climatic conditions required for groups of crops such as cool season vegetables or tropical crops. However, more precise information on how changes in long-term weather and climate influence the yield of specific vegetable crops is not available. Studies of yield over long periods have the advantage of reflecting the combined effects of numerous environmental variables, including climate effects on physiological stress, pests, and diseases. A study of yields of cool season vegetable crops in Ontario revealed that a decrease in yields is related to an increase in the number of hot days with maximum temperatures over 30 °C. A clear warming trend in Ontario weather is evident, beginning in the mid-1980s, with increasing numbers of hot days and more variable temperatures from year to year. Furthermore, yields of cole crops declined by 10% for every 10 d with temperatures >30 °C in the growing season. Several other studies on agronomic crops worldwide show reductions in yield resulting from warmer temperatures. For example, in a study of rice in the Philippines, yield was reduced by 10% for every 1 °C increase in minimum temperature during the dry season. Methods for evaluating long-term climate effects on crop yield are discussed.

Population dynamics of Frankliniella species (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) thrips and progress of spotted wilt in tomato fields

The population of Frankliniella thrips, as monitored by captures on sticky traps, developed quite differently in 1990 compared to 1989. The first thrips in 1990 arrived 10 days earlier, increased at a 22% faster rate, and reached an asymptotic level that was nearly twice as high as the thrips in 1989. Despite the substantial differences in the thrips populations between the 2 years, the incidence of spotted wilt in tomatoes was low (< 9%) both years. Although the thrips were present daily in the crop, the disease seemingly developed in only one-three separate monocycles. These monocycles were not correlated with apparent generations of thrips nor with specific weather events. The sigmoidal curves for the cumulative number of trapped thrips over time were fit well by the Weibull model with shape parameters of c = 2.16 and 2.55 for fields 1 and 2 in 1989 and c = 3.32 and 2.81 for the two fields in 1990. Three generations of migrating thrips apparently occurred in each season as detected by waves of increased numbers of thrips when the population curves were linearized. The diseased plants occurred mostly at random in the fields, which was evidence that the primary source of dispersal was by immigrating thrips. Polycyclic development undoubtedly was prevented in these commercial fields by weekly application of insecticides. Additional tactics are needed to prevent movement into tomato fields of viruliferous thrips that develop on hosts outside the fields.