Research Spotlight: Deadly 2010 Russian heat wave not a consequence of climate change

Abstract

Although some people may try to ascribe specific extreme weather events to climate change, global warming cannot be held responsible for recent weather events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave. Using climate simulations and a comparison against historical conditions, Dole et al. assess the influence of greenhouse gases, aerosols, anomalous sea surface temperatures, and other potential climate forcings on the likelihood and magnitude of the 2010 Russian heat wave. The authors suggest that the heat wave—which lasted from late June to mid‐August and was responsible for thousands of deaths, widespread wildfires, and devastating crop loss—fell well within the bounds of natural climate variability. The authors find that none of the tested climate factors showed appreciable ability to predict the extreme temperatures seen throughout the heat wave. Additionally, the researchers' historical analysis revealed that July temperatures, as well as the temperature variability, for the affected region of western Russia showed no significant trend over the past 130 years. They note that the top 10 hottest July days for the region were distributed randomly across the historical period, although global averages do show clustering in the past 2 decades. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582, 2011)