Spatio-temporal Population Dynamics Research Articles

Nonlinear amplitude dynamics in flagellar beating.

The physical basis of flagellar and ciliary beating is a major problem in biology which is still far from completely understood. The fundamental cytoskeleton structure of cilia and flagella is the axoneme, a cylindrical array of microtubule doublets connected by passive cross-linkers and dynein motor proteins. The complex interplay of these elements leads to the generation of self-organized bending waves. Although many mathematical models have been proposed to understand this process, few attempts have been made to assess the role of dyneins on the nonlinear nature of the axoneme. Here, we investigate the nonlinear dynamics of flagella by considering an axonemal sliding control mechanism for dynein activity. This approach unveils the nonlinear selection of the oscillation amplitudes, which are typically either missed or prescribed in mathematical models. The explicit set of nonlinear equations are derived and solved numerically. Our analysis reveals the spatio-temporal dynamics of dynein populations and flagellum shape for different regimes of motor activity, medium viscosity and flagellum elasticity. Unstable modes saturate via the coupling of dynein kinetics and flagellum shape without the need of invoking a nonlinear axonemal response. Hence, our work reveals a novel mechanism for the saturation of unstable modes in axonemal beating.

Influence of sampling frequency on detectability of fish community and fish species in a fishery-independent survey

Understanding the dynamics and regulation of a particular ecological process requires monitoring of the process at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Information collected at an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may be insufficient for capturing spatio-temporal dynamics of fish populations and community. In this study, a Monte Carlo method was developed to evaluate the detectability performances of different sampling frequencies, sampling timings and sampling intensities on fish community indices and fish species. Species richness indices tended to decrease with an increased sampling frequency, while species diversity indices had small changes in response to changes in sampling frequency. The diversity index was more likely to be influenced by the choice of sampling timing compared to the richness index. The total number of species, especially seasonal and rare species present in the simulated sampling, increased with sampling frequency. Although sampling frequency is more important than sampling intensity, sampling intensity is also important for the detectability of fish species. This study showed that sampling frequency and intensity could greatly influence the estimation of fish community. Choices of sampling timing, sampling frequency and intensity may result in different estimates of fish species compositions and community structure. It is very necessary to consider the importance of sufficient sampling frequency and intensity in a survey program.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

Towards a Multiscale Model of Acute HIV Infection

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection of humans represents a complex biological system and a great challenge to public health. Novel approaches for the analysis and prediction of the infection dynamics based on a multi-scale integration of virus ontogeny and immune reactions are needed to deal with the systems’ complexity. The aim of our study is: (1) to formulate a multi-scale mathematical model of HIV infection; (2) to implement the model computationally following a hybrid approach; and (3) to calibrate the model by estimating the parameter values enabling one to reproduce the “standard” observed dynamics of HIV infection in blood during the acute phase of primary infection. The modeling approach integrates the processes of infection spread and immune responses in Lymph Nodes (LN) to that observed in blood. The spatio-temporal population dynamics of T lymphocytes in LN in response to HIV infection is governed by equations linking an intracellular regulation of the lymphocyte fate by intercellular cytokine fields. We describe the balance of proliferation, differentiation and death at a single cell level as a consequence of gene activation via multiple signaling pathways activated by IL-2, IFNa and FasL. Distinct activation thresholds are used in the model to relate different modes of cellular responses to the hierarchy of the relative levels of the cytokines. We specify a reference set of model parameter values for the fundamental processes in lymph nodes that ensures a reasonable agreement with viral load and CD4+ T cell dynamics in blood.

Forecasting climate change impacts on plant populations over large spatial extents

AbstractPlant population models are powerful tools for predicting climate change impacts in one location, but are difficult to apply at landscape scales. We overcome this limitation by taking advantage of two recent advances: remotely sensed, species‐specific estimates of plant cover and statistical models developed for spatiotemporal dynamics of animal populations. Using computationally efficient model reparameterizations, we fit a spatiotemporal population model to a 28‐year time series of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) percent cover over a 2.5 × 5 km landscape in southwestern Wyoming while formally accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We include interannual variation in precipitation and temperature as covariates in the model to investigate how climate affects the cover of sagebrush. We then use the model to forecast the future abundance of sagebrush at the landscape scale under projected climate change, generating spatially explicit estimates of sagebrush population trajectories that have, until now, been impossible to produce at this scale. Our broadscale and long‐term predictions are rooted in small‐scale and short‐term population dynamics and provide an alternative to predictions offered by species distribution models that do not include population dynamics. Our approach, which combines several existing techniques in a novel way, demonstrates the use of remote sensing data to model population responses to environmental change that play out at spatial scales far greater than the traditional field study plot.

Impacts of population spatio-temporal dynamics on ecosystem quality during fast urbanization in Beijing, China.

The spatio-temporal dynamics of population and its impact on the regional ecosystem quality in Beijing were analyzed at city-county-township hierarchical levels during 2000 to 2010, based on the 5th and 6th population census data and MODIS-NDVI thematic data. We found that the resident population of Beijing increased by 43.9% during the study period, and the trend of population gathering to the urban fringe resulted in an obviously circular distribution. The annual maximum NDVI of Beijing had the trend of increase, however, decreased significantly between the 5th Ring and the 6th Ring. The change trends of NDVI in urban and exurban areas showed significantly negative relationships with the change ratios of population density, respectively. The increment of urban population caused by urbanization did not show negative influence on the regional ecosystem quality of Beijing. On the contrary, the ecosystem quality in urban core and exurban areas was improved, due to the adjustment of city functions and the population transfer from rural to urban area. Therefore, the functional orientation and development mechanism were the main contribution to the evolution of population pattern and its ecological impacts.

Delay driven spatiotemporal chaos in single species population dynamics models

Questions surrounding the prevalence of complex population dynamics form one of the central themes in ecology. Limit cycles and spatiotemporal chaos are examples that have been widely recognised theoretically, although their importance and applicability to natural populations remains debatable. The ecological processes underlying such dynamics are thought to be numerous, though there seems to be consent as to delayed density dependence being one of the main driving forces. Indeed, time delay is a common feature of many ecological systems and can significantly influence population dynamics. In general, time delays may arise from inter- and intra-specific trophic interactions or population structure, however in the context of single species populations they are linked to more intrinsic biological phenomena such as gestation or resource regeneration. In this paper, we consider theoretically the spatiotemporal dynamics of a single species population using two different mathematical formulations. Firstly, we revisit the diffusive logistic equation in which the per capita growth is a function of some specified delayed argument. We then modify the model by incorporating a spatial convolution which results in a biologically more viable integro-differential model. Using the combination of analytical and numerical techniques, we investigate the effect of time delay on pattern formation. In particular, we show that for sufficiently large values of time delay the system’s dynamics are indicative to spatiotemporal chaos. The chaotic dynamics arising in the wake of a travelling population front can be preceded by either a plateau corresponding to dynamical stabilisation of the unstable equilibrium or by periodic oscillations.

Spatio temporal population dynamics of the invasive diatom Didymosphenia geminata in central-southern Chilean rivers

We document the distribution of Didymosphenia geminata in central-southern Chilean rivers and identify the chemical and physical factors associated with its presence/absence (p/a). Repeated surveys in five successive years provided evidence that D. geminata could be nearing a biogeographic equilibrium in the region. D. geminata databases from extensive biological and environmental surveys in 187 rivers, within ten catchments, south of 38°S commenced in November 2010 and ran through May 2013. In addition, data from two other field surveys were used. The sites evenly distributed latitudinally were climatically characterized. The recent sampling program, following a published species distribution model, was designed to explore D. geminata distribution within thirteen catchments (34°S–48°S). An extensive river survey in 2014 (spring-summer) and in 2015 (autumn) included the p/a, and relative abundance of D. geminata cells in phytobenthos and in the drift. These p/a results showed that the probability of re-encountering D. geminata cells at sites where the species was previously found was significantly high while the probability of finding D. geminata cells at sites previously without the species was significantly low. This suggests that the distribution of D. geminata cells among suitable habitats was nearing completion. The relative abundance of D. geminata cells in the phytobenthos versus in the drift indicates seasonality with higher proportion of cells in the phytobenthos during the spring-summer than during the autumn. During the final surveys, principal component analysis of chemical and physical characteristics of rivers showed significant differences between rivers with and without D. geminata. Based on our observations of the distribution of D. geminata cells among rivers with suitable habitat conditions and the fluctuating rate of spread between rivers, we conclude that D. geminata is probably in the ending stage of its spatial demographic expansion in Chile surmounting the different barriers of the invasive process.

Spatio-temporal genetic variation of the biting midge vector species Culicoides imicola (Ceratopogonidae) Kieffer in France.

BackgroundIntroduction of vector species into new areas represents a main driver for the emergence and worldwide spread of vector-borne diseases. This poses a substantial threat to livestock economies and public health. Culicoides imicola Kieffer, a major vector species of economically important animal viruses, is described with an apparent range expansion in Europe where it has been recorded in south-eastern continental France, its known northern distribution edge. This questioned on further C. imicola population extension and establishment into new territories. Studying the spatio-temporal genetic variation of expanding populations can provide valuable information for the design of reliable models of future spread.MethodsEntomological surveys and population genetic approaches were used to assess the spatio-temporal population dynamics of C. imicola in France. Entomological surveys (2–3 consecutive years) were used to evaluate population abundances and local spread in continental France (28 sites in the Var department) and in Corsica (4 sites). We also genotyped at nine microsatellite loci insects from 3 locations in the Var department over 3 years (2008, 2010 and 2012) and from 6 locations in Corsica over 4 years (2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012).ResultsEntomological surveys confirmed the establishment of C. imicola populations in Var department, but indicated low abundances and no apparent expansion there within the studied period. Higher population abundances were recorded in Corsica. Our genetic data suggested the absence of spatio-temporal genetic changes within each region but a significant increase of the genetic differentiation between Corsican and Var populations through time. The lack of intra-region population structure may result from strong gene flow among populations. We discussed the observed temporal variation between Corsica and Var as being the result of genetic drift following introduction, and/or the genetic characteristics of populations at their range edge.ConclusionsOur results suggest that local range expansion of C. imicola in continental France may be slowed by the low population abundances and unsuitable climatic and environmental conditions.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1426-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Community structure and diversity of gelatinous zooplankton in the Bay of Biscay

Community structure and diversity of gelatinous zooplankton in the Bay of Biscay

Temporal variation in the synchrony of weather and its consequences for spatiotemporal population dynamics.

Over large areas, synchronous fluctuations in population density are often attributed to environmental stochasticity (e.g., weather) shared among local populations. This concept was first advanced by Patrick Moran who showed, based on several assumptions, that long-term population synchrony will equal the synchrony of environmental stochasticity among locations. We examine the consequences of violating one of Moran's assumptions, namely that environmental synchrony is constant through time. We demonstrate that the synchrony of weather conditions from regions across the United States varied considerably from 1895 to 2010. Using a simulation model modified from Moran's original study, we show that temporal variation in environmental synchrony can cause changes in population synchrony, which in turn can temporarily increase or decrease the amplitude of regional-scale population fluctuations. A case study using the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) provides empirical support for these predictions. This study provides theoretical and empirical evidence that temporal variation in environmental synchrony can be used to identify factors that synchronize population fluctuations and highlights a previously underappreciated cause of variability in population dynamics.

On the distribution and population dynamics of the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Belgian part of the North Sea and Westerschelde estuary

The spatio-temporal distribution and population dynamics of the non-indigenous ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi A. Agassiz 1865 were investigated through monthly and quarterly surveys in 2011–2012 at several locations in the Belgian part of the North Sea, the main coastal ports and the adjacent Westerschelde estuary. M. leidyi occurred from August to December, but was never found more than 30 km offshore. Densities were generally low (average 0.8 ± SD 2.8 ind m−3) compared to other invaded European systems. Highest densities of M. leidyi were found in the semi-enclosed basin (port of Oostende; 18.4 ind m−3) and Westerschelde estuary (1.9 ind m−3). The presence of larvae and sudden appearance of high numbers across the size distribution in August indicated that ports and estuaries may act as sources, populating the adjacent coastal area. The zero-inflated logistic regression model showed that there is a higher chance of finding M. leidyi (presence) when temperature declines from late summer onwards. Combined with a negative binomial regression, our model suggests that increasing M. leidyi densities are associated with decreasing autumn temperatures, low wave height (low energetic systems) and low dissolved oxygen concentrations Although densities remained relatively low since its first appearance in 2007, a permanent population seems to be established in Belgian waters. As population outbursts may occur with only a small change in environmental parameters, further monitoring of this notorious invasive species is recommended.

Evaluating Spatial Interaction Models for Regional Mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Simple spatial interaction models of human mobility based on physical laws have been used extensively in the social, biological, and physical sciences, and in the study of the human dynamics underlying the spread of disease. Recent analyses of commuting patterns and travel behavior in high-income countries have led to the suggestion that these models are highly generalizable, and as a result, gravity and radiation models have become standard tools for describing population mobility dynamics for infectious disease epidemiology. Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa may not conform to these models, however; physical accessibility, availability of transport, and cost of travel between locations may be variable and severely constrained compared to high-income settings, informal labor movements rather than regular commuting patterns are often the norm, and the rise of mega-cities across the continent has important implications for travel between rural and urban areas. Here, we first review how infectious disease frameworks incorporate human mobility on different spatial scales and use anonymous mobile phone data from nearly 15 million individuals to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Kenyan population. We find that gravity and radiation models fail in systematic ways to capture human mobility measured by mobile phones; both severely overestimate the spatial spread of travel and perform poorly in rural areas, but each exhibits different characteristic patterns of failure with respect to routes and volumes of travel. Thus, infectious disease frameworks that rely on spatial interaction models are likely to misrepresent population dynamics important for the spread of disease in many African populations.

Limited Sexual Reproduction and Quick Turnover in the Population Genetic Structure of Phytophthora infestans in Fujian, China.

The mating system plays an important role in the spatiotemporal dynamics of pathogen populations through both its direct and indirect impact on the generation and distribution of genetic variation. Here, we used a combination of microsatellite and phenotypic markers to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of genetic variation in Phytophthora infestans isolates collected from Fujian, China and to determine the role of sexual reproduction in the dynamics. Although the pathogen populations in this region were dominated by self-fertile genotypes, sexual reproduction only occurred occasionally and its contributions to the population genetic structure of P. infestans and epidemics of late blight in the region were limited. Only 49 genotypes were detected among the 534 isolates assayed and the pathogen populations displayed significant heterozygosity excess. Hierarchical analysis revealed that 21.42% of genetic variation was attributed to the difference among sampling years while only 4.45% was attributed to the difference among locations, suggesting temporal factors play a more important role in the population genetic dynamics of P. infestans than spatial factors in this region. We propose that clonal reproduction, combined with founder effects and long distance dispersal of sporangia, is responsible for the observed pattern of spatiotemporal dynamics in P. infestans.

Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly.

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

Modeling spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaking species: influence of environment and migration in a locust.

Many pest species exhibit huge fluctuations in population abundance. Understanding their large-scale and long-term dynamics is necessary to develop effective control and management strategies. Occupancy models represent a promising approach to unravel interactions between environmental factors and spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaking populations. Here, we investigated population dynamics of the Australian plague locust, Chortoicetes terminifera, using density data collected between 1988 and 2010 by the Australian Plague Locust Commission over more than 3 million km2 in eastern Australia. We applied multistate and autologistic multi-season occupancy models to test competing hypotheses about environmental and demographic processes affecting the large-scale dynamics of the Australian plague locust. We found that rainfall and land cover predictors best explained the spatial variability in outbreak probability across eastern Australia. Outbreaks are more likely to occur in temperate than tropical regions, with a faster and more continuous response to rainfall in desert than in agricultural areas. Our results also support the hypothesis that migration tends to propagate outbreaks only locally (over distances lower than 400 km) rather than across climatic regions. Our study suggests that locust outbreak forecasting and management systems could be improved by implementing key environmental factors and migration in hierarchical spatial models. Finally, our modeling framework can be seen as a step towards bridging the gap between mechanistic and more phenomenological models in the spatial analysis of fluctuating populations.

Gelatinous zooplankton in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the adjacent Schelde estuary: Spatio-temporal distribution patterns and population dynamics

Many ocean ecosystems are thought to be heading towards a dominance of gelatinous organisms. However, gelatinous zooplankton has been largely understudied and the absence of quantitative long-term data for the studied area impedes drawing conclusions on potential increasing densities. This study gives a comprehensive overview of the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of gelatinous zooplankton in terms of diversity and density in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the adjacent Schelde estuary, based on monthly and seasonal samples between March 2011 and February 2012. Three Scyphozoa, three Ctenophora and 27 Hydrozoa taxa were identified, including three non-indigenous species: Mnemiopsis leidyi, Nemopsis bachei and Lovenella assimilis. In general, one gelatinous zooplankton assemblage was found across locations and seasons. Average gelatinous zooplankton densities reached up to 18ind·m−3 near the coast, gradually declining towards the open sea. In the brackish Schelde estuary, average densities remained below 3ind·m−3. Highest gelatinous zooplankton densities were recorded in summer and autumn. Overall, hydromedusae were the most important group both in terms of diversity and density. The ctenophore Pleurobrachia pileus and the hydromedusa Clytia sp. were present in every season and at every location. Gelatinous zooplankton densities never outnumbered the non-gelatinous zooplankton densities recorded from the WP3 samples. The spatial and temporal distribution patterns seemed to be mainly driven by temperature (season) and salinity (location). Other environmental parameters including (larger) non-gelatinous zooplankton densities (as an important food source) were not retained in the most parsimonious DistLM model.In terms of population dynamics, Beroe sp. seemed to follow the three reproductive cycles of its prey P. pileus and the presence of M. leidyi, which were abundant in a broad size spectrum in summer and autumn. In general, gelatinous zooplankton diversity was higher, but densities were in the same order of magnitude compared to adjacent areas in the North Sea. This study provides a baseline against which a potential increase in gelatinous zooplankton in the Belgian part of the North Sea and the Schelde estuary can be measured.

Dynamics of sylvatic Chagas disease vectors in coastal Ecuador is driven by changes in land cover.

BackgroundChagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics.Methodology and Principal FindingsThe study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points) allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1) sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71%) and 2) densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts.ConclusionWe propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio-ecological systems is a crucial, yet poorly considered, issue for the long-term control of Chagas disease.

Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

Spatial distributions of structured populations are usually estimated by fitting abundance surfaces for each stage and at each point of time separately, ignoring correlations that emerge from growth of individuals. Here, we present a statistical model that combines spatio-temporal correlations with simple stock dynamics to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod (Gadus morhua) population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality, and reproduction, after which any aspect of size structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: (i) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort through time and (ii) predicting the risk of bycatch of undersized individuals. The method demonstrates that it is possible to combine stock assessment and spatio-temporal dynamics; however, this comes at a high computational cost. The model can be extended by increasing its ecological fidelity, although computational feasibility eventually becomes limiting.

Large scale spatio-temporal patterns of road development in the Amazon rainforest

SUMMARYThere is burgeoning interest in predicting road development because of the wide ranging important socioeconomic and environmental issues that roads present, including the close links between road development, deforestation and biodiversity loss. This is especially the case in developing nations, which are high in natural resources, where road development is rapid and often not centrally managed. Characterization of large scale spatio-temporal patterns in road network development has been greatly overlooked to date. This paper examines the spatio-temporal dynamics of road density across the Brazilian Amazon and assesses the relative contributions of local versus neighbourhood effects for temporal changes in road density at regional scales. To achieve this, a combination of statistical analyses and model-data fusion techniques inspired by studies of spatio-temporal dynamics of populations in ecology and epidemiology were used. The emergent development may be approximated by local growth that is logistic through time and directional dispersal. The current rates and dominant direction of development may be inferred, by assuming that roads develop at a rate of 55 km per year. Large areas of the Amazon will be subject to extensive anthropogenic change should the observed patterns of road development continue.