Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.
Highlights
Understanding the spatial dynamics of animal populations and using this information in biological conservation and resource management represents one of the new frontiers in marinePLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0172004 February 16, 2017Spatio-temporal dynamics of Baltic Sea cod Management
Our study shows, using for the first time a long time-series of bottom trawl survey data, the large changes in spatial distribution experienced by the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades
Population densities were high in large areas of the central Baltic in the first years of our time series up to mid-1980s, whereas thereafter the population has shown a progressive contraction into the southwest area (i.e. SD 25)
Summary
Understanding the spatial dynamics of animal populations and using this information in biological conservation and resource management represents one of the new frontiers in marinePLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0172004 February 16, 2017Spatio-temporal dynamics of Baltic Sea cod Management (formerly the Swedish Board of Fisheries). Understanding the spatial dynamics of animal populations and using this information in biological conservation and resource management represents one of the new frontiers in marine. Spatio-temporal dynamics of Baltic Sea cod Management (formerly the Swedish Board of Fisheries). The high-resolution, three-dimensional model simulation was performed within the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Program (FP/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 217246 made with BONUS, the joint Baltic Sea research and development program, and by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (08/ 381). Additional support came from the Swedish Research Council Formas within the project “Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on the phosphorus cycle in the Baltic Sea”
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