Sparse Historical Data Research Articles

Dung beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeoidea) assemblages in the western Italian Alps: benchmark data for land use monitoring.

BackgroundTraditional agro-pastoral practices are in decline over much of the Alps (MacDonald et al. 2000), leading to shrub and tree encroachment, and this represents one of the main threats for the conservation of alpine biodiversity, as many plant and animal species are dependent on the presence of semi-natural open habitats. However, quantifying this environmental change and assessing its impact on biodiversity may be difficult, especially in the context of sparse historical survey data. The accessibility of contemporary data about local biodiversity surveys in general, and indicator taxa in particular, is an essential consideration for planning future evaluations of conservation status in the Alps and for conservation plans that use ecological indicators to monitor temporal changes in biodiversity. Dung beetles are important ecosystem service providers (Nichols et al. 2008) that have been assessed as a good ecological indicator taxon in several studies (reviewed by Nichols and Gardner 2011), and although the Alps is perhaps one of the best-studied regions in respect of dung beetles, there are still only eight readily-accessible publications. We have augmented and comprehensively reviewed the data from these publications.New informationWe first provide data about changes on a temporal scale of seasons in a dung beetle community in the western Italian Alps, an issue that has to be addressed in the local assemblages because it would affect regional biomonitoring and conservation research. This survey of 12 099 individuals belonging to 22 species illustrates a distinct seasonal pattern at a single site. Second, we collate the results of 13 published surveys of the presence of 46 species of dung beetles in 11 valleys in the western Italian Alps in the period from 2005 to 2012, a period of accelerated change in land use that started around 1945 (MacDonald et al. 2000). Because ten of the surveys used baited pitfall traps and four more used manual collection of specimens, the abundance data were not strictly comparable and they were therefore transformed to binary data (presence-or-absence records) with measures of sampling effort. The results illustrate both spatial variation and temporal variation at the scale of years.Because of the importance of dung beetles in agro-pastoral ecosystems and the high sensitivity of montane ecosystems to climate change, these spatially and temporally explicit data sets provide important baseline information about western Italian Alpine dung beetles for investigations of the effects of land use change under ongoing climate change scenarios.

Assessing multi-site δ18O-climate calibrations of the coralline alga Clathromorphum across the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere

An increased number of climate proxy records and more refined interpretation of proxy data are crucial to improve projections of future climate at high latitudes, where internal feedbacks amplify warming and established high-resolution climate archives are especially sparse. Encrusting coralline algae are being developed as a mid- to high-latitude marine climate archive. These long-lived algae form a solid high-Mg calcite skeleton with annual growth bands similar to those of trees and tropical corals. The oxygen isotope ratio of the algal skeleton (δ18Oalg) records local environmental and climatic factors, notably sea surface temperature and seawater δ18O.Here we assess the δ18Oalg–climate relationship in diverse environments across the algal habitat range utilizing two species of coralline algae from the genus Clathromorphum. Clathromorphum is widely distributed from the cold-temperate North Atlantic and Pacific to the Arctic Ocean and has recently yielded numerous climate reconstructions of up to 650years in length. In this study, we calibrate δ18Oalg of four specimens to gridded temperature and salinity data, the latter a proxy for seawater δ18O. These specimens were collected from a variety of algal growth environments across the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere: two specimens from the Aleutian Archipelago, one from the Canadian Arctic, and one from the Gulf of Maine. Low winter temperatures and insolation restrict the months when algae record local climate in the δ18O of their skeletons; we therefore determine these response seasons by correlating monthly temperature and salinity anomalies with annual δ18Oalg anomalies at each site. We then average gridded data over months that correlate significantly (95% confidence interval) for regression with δ18Oalg. While the timing and nature of the climate signal vary across sites, we find significant relationships between δ18Oalg and either temperature or salinity averaged over the response season at three sites. Variation in local climatology among the four sites provides a physical explanation for calibration differences, compounded by uncertainties stemming from the proxy chronology, biological variability, temporal coverage, and sparse historical climate data. This work takes an essential step toward reconstructing high-latitude marine climate patterns with coralline algal δ18O and developing algae proxy system models.

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

Who were the Antipa Jivaroans? A linguistic and ethnohistorical investigation of a forgotten tribe

The ethnonym Antipa was commonly mentioned as one of the major lowland Jivaroan (also known as Chicham) tribes of north Peru in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, before disappearing both from the historical record and from the oral history of the modern Jivaroan groups. This work presents insights gained by approaching the sparse historical data from a linguistic perspective. Taking into account documented linguistic evidence, the possible etymology of the ethnonym, and evidence from oral tradition, it suggests tentative hypotheses regarding the origin and disappearance of the Antipa ethnonym.

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

Uncovering cooperative behaviors with sparse historical behavior data in the spatial games

For past decades, the main attention of the evolutionary games has been focused on cooperation mechanism with the assumption that the strategy information of all players are known. However, it is difficult for observers to obtain the global information of players’ strategies in the real world, and some players even hide their strategy information to confuse their opponents. Here we try to solve the problem to predicate the hidden strategies with sparse historical behavior data in the evolutionary games. To quantify the similarity of strategies among the players in our method, the Euclidean distance of players is defined from the strategies of the players in the few past rounds. Then, the hidden strategy of a player will be determined from the tendency that players with minimum Euclidean distance will adopt similar strategies. The method has good performance on determining hidden strategy of human beings in both the prisoner’s dilemma game and the public goods game where strategies of twenty five percent players are hidden, and the success rate to determine hidden strategy reaches up to 0.9. It is also found that the success rate to determine hidden strategy depends on both length of historical behavior data and tempting payoff b (the prisoner’s dilemma game) or multiple factor r (the public goods game).

PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES

This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contributions to the process. The field data and numerical simulations used here are subject to uncertainty from many sources, uncertainties that must be properly accounted for in assessing the hazard. The methodology presented here will be demonstrated with data from the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat, where there is a relatively complete record of volcanic mass flows from the past 15 years. This methodology can be transferred to other volcanic sites with similar characteristics and where sparse historical data have prevented such high-quality analysis. More generally, the core of this methodology is widely applicable and can be used for other hazard scenarios, such as floods or ash plumes.

P3.012 How Robust Are the Descriptions of Chlamydia Natural History Used in Economic Evaluations of Control Strategies?

BackgroundThe decision to implement a Chlamydia screening programme is based on a detailed assessment of its projected impact and cost-effectiveness. In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, transmission...

Comprehensive Assessment of Exposures to Elongate Mineral Particles in the Taconite Mining Industry

Since the 1970s, concerns have been raised about elevated rates of mesothelioma in the vicinity of the taconite mines in the Mesabi Iron Range. However, insufficient quantitative exposure data have hampered investigations of the relationship between cumulative exposures to elongate mineral particles (EMP) in taconite dust and adverse health effects. Specifically, no research on exposure to taconite dust, which includes EMP, has been conducted since 1990. This article describes a comprehensive assessment of present-day exposures to total and amphibole EMP in the taconite mining industry. Similar exposure groups (SEGs) were established to assess present-day exposure levels and buttress the sparse historical data. Personal samples were collected to assess the present-day levels of worker exposures to EMP at six mines in the Mesabi Iron Range. The samples were analyzed using National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) methods 7400 and 7402. For many SEGs in several mines, the exposure levels of total EMP were higher than the NIOSH Recommended Exposure Limit (REL). However, the total EMP classification includes not only the asbestiform EMP and their non-asbestiform mineral analogs but also other minerals because the NIOSH 7400 cannot differentiate between these. The concentrations of amphibole EMP were well controlled across all mines and were much lower than the concentrations of total EMP, indicating that amphibole EMP are not major components of taconite EMP. The levels are also well below the NIOSH REL of 0.1 EMP cc(-1). Two different approaches were used to evaluate the variability of exposure between SEGs, between workers, and within workers. The related constructs of contrast and homogeneity were calculated to characterize the SEGs. Contrast, which is a ratio of between-SEG variability to the sum of between-SEG and between-worker variability, provides an overall measure of whether there are distinctions between the SEGs. Homogeneity, which is the ratio of the within-worker variance component to the sum of the between-worker and within-worker variance components, provides an overall measure of how similar exposures are for workers within an SEG. Using these constructs, it was determined that the SEGs are formed well enough when grouped by mine for both total and amphibole EMP to be used for epidemiological analysis.

Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling

Abstract. The analog method (AM) has found application to reconstruct gridded climate fields from the information provided by proxy data and climate model simulations. Here, we test the skill of different setups of the AM, in a controlled but realistic situation, by analysing several statistical properties of reconstructed daily high-resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe for a 50-yr period. In this application, station observations of sea-level pressure and air temperature are combined with atmospheric fields from a 50-yr high-resolution regional climate simulation. This reconstruction aims at providing homogeneous and physically consistent atmospheric fields with daily resolution suitable to drive high resolution ocean and ecosystem models. Different settings of the AM are evaluated in this study for the period 1958–2007 to estimate the robustness of the reconstruction and its ability to replicate high and low-frequency variability, realistic probability distributions and extremes of different meteorological variables. It is shown that the AM can realistically reconstruct variables with a strong physical link to daily sea-level pressure on both a daily and monthly scale. However, to reconstruct low-frequency decadal and longer temperature variations, additional monthly mean station temperature as predictor is required. Our results suggest that the AM is a suitable upscaling tool to predict daily fields taken from regional climate simulations based on sparse historical station data.

Degradation modeling and monitoring of truncated degradation signals

Advancements in condition monitoring techniques have facilitated the utilization of sensor technology for predicting failures of engineering systems. Within this context, failure is defined as the point where a sensor-based degradation signal reaches a pre-specified failure threshold. Parametric degradation models rely on complete signals to estimate the parametric functional form and do not perform well with sparse historical data. On the other hand, non-parametric models that address the challenges of data sparsity usually assume that signal observations can be made beyond the failure threshold. Unfortunately, in most applications, degradation signals can only be observed up to the failure threshold resulting in what this article refers to as truncated degradation signals. This article combines a non-parametric degradation modeling framework with a signal transformation procedure, allowing different types of truncated degradation signals to be characterized. This article considers (i) complete signals that result from constant monitoring of a system up to its failure; (ii) sparse signals resulting from sparse observations; and (iii) fragmented signals that result from dense observations over disjoint time intervals. The goal is to estimate and update the residual life distributions of partially degraded systems using in situ signal observations. It is showed that the proposed model outperforms existing models for all three signal types.

Determining the native region of the putatively invasive ascidian Didemnum vexillum Kott, 2002

Over the past 40years, an increasing number of previously unrecorded populations of a colonial ascidian, recently identified as Didemnum vexillum, have been documented in most temperate coastal regions of the world, impacting aquaculture operations, natural rocky habitats, cobble/gravel substrates, and eelgrass beds. The earliest sample thought to be D. vexillum was collected in Mutsu Bay, Japan in 1926, but was not identified to species at the time. Lack of a published description led to widespread mis-identification of this species. Because of incomplete historical records and the numerous mis-identifications of this species, the native range of D. vexillum has not been conclusively known. To determine which portion of the current known range of D. vexillum is within its native region, we obtained DNA sequences of two genes, cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1(co1; mitochondrial) and THO complex subunit (tho2; nuclear), from 365 and 75 samples of D. vexillum from around the world, respectively. Both population genetics (co1 only) and phylogenetics (co1 and tho2) were used to measure and compare the amount of genetic variation contained in each region where D. vexillum is currently found (Eastern North America, Japan, New Zealand, Northwestern Europe, and Western North America). We found that genetic diversity in Japan was greater than in any other region. Northwestern Europe, western North America, and New Zealand all showed evidence of having recently undergone a genetic bottleneck. The gene tree for co1 in D. vexillum was divided into three clades: one which is found globally; the other two found only in Japan. Analysis of a partial genomic sequence of the nuclear gene tho2 confirmed that the co1 clades belong to the same species. In agreement with the sparse historical data, the molecular evidence suggests that Japan lies within the native range of D. vexillum.

Declining Oxygen in the Northeast Pacific*

Abstract Climate models predict a decrease in oceanic dissolved oxygen and a thickening of the oxygen minimum zone, associated with global warming. Comprehensive observational analyses of oxygen decline are challenging, given generally sparse historical data. The Newport hydrographic (NH) line off central Oregon is one of the few locations in the northeast Pacific with long oxygen records. Good quality data are available here primarily in two time blocks: 1960–71 and 1998–present. Standard sampling extends from midshelf (bottom depth of 58 m) to 157 km offshore (bottom depth of 2880 m). Shipboard measurements have been supplemented in recent years (2006–present) with data from autonomous underwater gliders. Oxygen declines significantly over this 50-yr period across the entire NH line. In addition to decrease in the vicinity of the oxygen minimum depth (~800 m), oxygen decreases across a range of density surfaces σθ = 26–27 within the thermocline, in the depth range 100–550 m. A core of decreasing oxygen (0.7 ± 0.2 μmol kg−1 yr−1 or 0.016 ± 0.005 ml l−1 yr−1) is also found over the upper slope at 150–200-m depths, within the region of average northward flow associated with the poleward undercurrent. During the summer upwelling season, the largest decline is observed near bottom on the shelf: the dissolved oxygen of upwelled water, already low, is further reduced by shelf processes, leading to near-bottom hypoxia (<60 μmol kg−1) on the Oregon shelf.

A conservation assessment of Douepea arabica (Brassicaceae): a Critically Endangered plant species from Saudi Arabia

AbstractDouepea arabica (Hedge & Kit Tan) O. Appel & Al-Shehbaz is a rare and threatened endemic plant species of Saudi Arabia. We present the first field studies of D. arabica in over 2 decades and update the sparse historical data on this important plant species. Surveys of the type locality Wadi Qaraqir and surrounding areas indicate that numbers of D. arabica are low. Although regeneration is occurring in the type locality and a newly recorded locality in the neighbouring Wadi Ghamrah, the extent of occurrence and area of occupancy of D. arabica are restricted. This species appears to be strongly associated with available water sources and the dominant Nerium shrubland in the wadi channels. These are both threatened by increasing agricultural activities and road building in the area. We propose that D. arabica should be categorized as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List. We recommend conservation measures for this species, as well as the further research required to implement a conservation action plan.

Potential of historical meteorological and hydrological data for the reconstruction of historical flood events – the example of the 1882 flood in southwest Germany

Abstract. This paper presents a hydrometeorological reconstruction of the flood triggering meteorological situation and the simulation of discharges of the flood event of December 1882 in the Neckar catchment in Baden-Württemberg (southwest Germany). The course of the 1882 flood event in the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany and the weather conditions which led to this flood were reconstructed by evaluating the information from various historical sources. From these historical data, daily input data sets were derived for run-off modeling. For the determination of the precipitation pattern at the end of December 1882, the sparse historical data were modified by using a similar modern day precipitation pattern with a higher station density. The results of this run-off simulation are compared with contemporary historical data and also with 1-D hydraulic simulations using the HEC-RAS model.

Past Occupational Exposure to Airborne Manganese in a Manganese Alloy Plant

A retrospective exposure assessment of a group of manganese (Mn) alloy workers was performed in conjunction with a 2004 follow-up study, 14 years after cessation of exposure, to evaluate the long-term effects of occupational Mn exposure on neurobehavioral functions. The ferro- and silico-Mn alloy plant opened in 1973 and closed in 1991. The airborne total Mn (TMn) exposures for job groupings were established using personal sampling data from a 1991 industrial hygiene survey. Historical short-term total dust (TDust) data were used to estimate past TDust exposure for job groupings and plant areas. Relationships between Mn content and TDust from the 1991 survey, supported by sparse historical data, were used to estimate TMn content in the historical TDust data. Results showed past personal TDust exposure levels much higher than those found in 1991. Changes in TDust levels and corresponding TMn levels were a function of changes in ventilation, work practices, and operations, not of product (ferro- or silico-Mn). Relationships between TMn and respirable Mn (RMn) from area sampling in 1991 were used to estimate RMn exposure for the job groups. Work histories for 112 workers were developed from payroll records, questionnaires, and interviews and combined with Mn exposure estimates to develop cumulative exposure indices (CEIs). The TMn CEI ranged from 0.27 mg/m 3 × years to 100.24 mg/m 3 × years, with an AM of 24.40 mg/m 3 × years and a GM of 14.06 mg/m 3 × years. The RMn CEI had an AM of 2.95 mg/m 3 × years and a GM of 1.78 mg/m 3 × years with a range of 0.05–12.03 mg/m 3 × years. Overall average TMn exposure intensity, the TMn CEI divided by time worked in years for each worker, had an AM of 1.6 mg Mn/m 3 , a GM of 1.0 mg Mn/m 3 , range 0.02–6.2 6 mg Mn/m 3 . The results of the 2004 follow-up study showed several concentration-response relationships between TMn CEI and neurobehavioral outcomes, which suggest that increase in cumulative TMn exposure level has long-term consequences on the nervous system.

Review of Methods of Dose Estimation for Epidemiological Studies of the Radiological Impact of Nevada Test Site and Global Fallout

Methods to assess radiation doses from nuclear weapons test fallout have been used to estimate doses to populations and individuals in a number of studies. However, only a few epidemiology studies have relied on fallout dose estimates. Though the methods for assessing doses from local and regional compared to global fallout are similar, there are significant differences in predicted doses and contributing radionuclides depending on the source of the fallout, e.g. whether the nuclear debris originated in Nevada at the U.S. nuclear test site or whether it originated at other locations worldwide. The sparse historical measurement data available are generally sufficient to estimate external exposure doses reasonably well. However, reconstruction of doses to body organs from ingestion and inhalation of radionuclides is significantly more complex and is almost always more uncertain than are external dose estimates. Internal dose estimates are generally based on estimates of the ground deposition per unit area of specific radionuclides and subsequent transport of radionuclides through the food chain. A number of technical challenges to correctly modeling deposition of fallout under wet and dry atmospheric conditions still remain, particularly at close-in locations where sizes of deposited particles vary significantly over modest changes in distance. This paper summarizes the various methods of dose estimation from weapons test fallout and the most important dose assessment and epidemiology studies that have relied on those methods.

Data-mining-based system for prediction of water chemistry faults

Fault monitoring and prediction is of prime importance in process industries. Faults are usually rare, and, therefore, predicting them is difficult. In this paper, simple and robust alarm-system architecture for predicting incoming faults is proposed. The system is data driven, modular, and based on data mining of merged data sets. The system functions include data preprocessing, learning, prediction, alarm generation, and display. A hierarchical decision-making algorithm for fault prediction has been developed. The alarm system was applied for prediction and avoidance of water chemistry faults (WCFs) at two commercial power plants. The prediction module predicted WCFs (inadvertently leading to boiler shutdowns) for independent test data sets. The system is applicable for real-time monitoring of facilities with sparse historical fault data.

Effect of Time of Temperature Observation and Estimation of Daily Solar Radiation for the Northern Great Plains, USA

Daily incident solar radiation is an important input for numerous crop growth simulation models. However, lack of recorded solar radiation is a significant impediment for most crop–climate studies. The present study aimed to overcome the problem of sparse historical data of solar radiation over the northern Great Plains. The approach was to develop a physically based solar radiation model wherein estimates were possible with minimum input data. In addition, this study investigates impacts of time of observation bias on the model formulation. The proposed model (M‐H) requires measured daily range of air temperature (maximum minus minimum) and estimated daily clear‐sky solar radiation. Daily weather data (including solar radiation measurements) for nine stations with observations from 1990 through 1998 were used for formulation of the final model. To determine potential bias associated with the reporting time, three times—0800, 1600, and 2400 h—were tested. Based on superior performance, the solar radiation model formulated with 2400‐h reporting time data from Akron, CO, was selected for the whole region. The model underestimated high values. Local‐scale advection and frontal passage were apparently responsible for this bias. This proposed model was also compared with two forms of the Bristow–Campbell (B‐C) model. Both of these forms show significant improvement for 2400‐h observation time. One particular form of the B‐C model performs slightly better than the model proposed here. However, it also underestimates high values like the M‐H model and shows slight regional bias. This study finds that, overall, the M‐H model is more stable than the B‐C model.

Sensitivity of modal amplitudes to warm surface mixed layers in the Greenland Sea

Six near-surface acoustic transceivers were moored in the Greenland Sea in an array approximately 200 km in diameter from October 1988 to August 1989. Transmissions with a center frequency of 250 Hz and a bandwidth of 100 Hz were made at 4-h intervals over most of the array, resulting in a multipath structure of early ray arrivals and later near-surface modal arrivals. During February and March the almost isothermal temperature profile resulted in an arrival pattern with the later arriving lower-order modes have greater amplitude. However, from mid-April onwards the pattern changed dramatically as amplitudes of the lowest-order mode became far smaller, and slightly earlier arriving modes became somewhat louder. At the same time, net surface fluxes changed sign, so one expects the formation of a shallow warm surface mixed layer (although the somewhat sparse historical data suggests that warm surface mixed layers are not seen for at least another month). One explanation for the amplitude changes is that modal coupling is induced by horizontal variations in the depth of this warm layer. a)On leave from Shanghai Acoustics Laboratory.