Southern Ocean Carbon Research Articles

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO2 sink: an ocean model subsampling experiment.

Estimates of ocean [Formula: see text] uptake from global ocean biogeochemistry models and [Formula: see text]-based data products differ substantially, especially in high latitudes and in the trend of the [Formula: see text] uptake since 2000. Here, we assess the effect of data sparsity on two [Formula: see text]-based estimates by subsampling output from a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The estimates of the ocean [Formula: see text] uptake are improved from a sampling scheme that mimics present-day sampling to an ideal sampling scheme with 1000 evenly distributed sites. In particular, insufficient sampling has given rise to strong biases in the trend of the ocean carbon sink in the [Formula: see text] products. The overestimation of the [Formula: see text] flux trend by 20-35% globally and 50-130% in the Southern Ocean with the present-day sampling is reduced to less than [Formula: see text] with the ideal sampling scheme. A substantial overestimation of the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink occurs in one product and appears related to a skewed data distribution in [Formula: see text] space. With the ideal sampling, the bias in the mean [Formula: see text] flux is reduced from 9-12% to 2-9% globally and from 14-26% to 5-17% in the Southern Ocean. On top of that, discrepancies of about [Formula: see text] (15%) persist due to uncertainties in the gas-exchange calculation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Southern Ocean Acidification Revealed by Biogeochemical‐Argo Floats

AbstractOcean acidification has potentially large impacts on calcifying organisms and ecosystems. Argo floats equipped with biogeochemical (BGC) sensors have been continuously measuring Southern Ocean pH since 2014. These BGC‐Argo floats were deployed as part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project. Here we present a SOCCOM‐era Objectively Mapped pH (SOM‐pH) 2014–2019 climatology and explain the method for constructing this product. We show example SOM‐pH fields demonstrating the spatial and temporal structure of Southern Ocean pH. Comparison with previous ship‐based measurements reveals decreases in pH of up to 0.02 per decade, with a structure decaying with depth. An assessment of the trend structure reveals a pattern indicative of the meridional overturning circulation. Upwelling waters that have not been in recent contact with the atmosphere show negligible or small trends, while surface and downwelling waters that have had more exposure to the atmosphere show the strongest trends. Thus comparison of this new BGC‐Argo mapped pH estimate to historic observations allows quantifying the structure of Southern Ocean acidification.

Biogenic carbon pool production maintains the Southern Ocean carbon sink

Through biological activity, marine dissolved inorganic carbon(DIC) is transformed into different types of biogenic carbon available for export to the ocean interior, including particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC). Each biogenic carbon pool has a different export efficiency that impacts the vertical ocean carbon gradient and drives natural air-sea carbon dioxide gas (CO2) exchange. In the Southern Ocean (SO), which presently accounts for ~40% of the anthropogenic ocean carbon sink, it is unclear how the production of each biogenic carbon pool contributes to the contemporary air-sea CO2 exchange. Based on 107 independent observations of the seasonal cycle from 63 biogeochemical profiling floats, we provide the basin-scale estimate of distinct biogenic carbon pool production. We find significant meridional variability with enhanced POC production in the subantarctic and polar Antarctic sectorsand enhanced DOC production in the subtropical and sea-ice-dominated sectors. PIC production peaks between 47°S and 57°S near the "great calcite belt." Relative to an abiotic SO, organic carbon production enhances CO2 uptake by 2.80 ± 0.28 Pg C y-1, while PIC production diminishes CO2 uptake by 0.27 ± 0.21 Pg C y-1. Without organic carbon production, the SO would be a CO2 source to the atmosphere. Our findings emphasize the importance of DOC and PIC production, in addition to the well-recognized role of POC production, in shaping the influence of carbon export on air-sea CO2 exchange.

Fingerprint of Climate Change on Southern Ocean Carbon Storage

AbstractThe Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the uptake, transport, and storage of carbon by the global oceans. It is the ocean's largest sink of CO2, yet it is also among the regions with the lowest storage of anthropogenic carbon. This behavior results from a unique combination of high winds driving the upwelling of deep waters and the subduction and northward transport of surface carbon. Here we isolate the direct effect of increasing anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere from the indirect effect of climate variability and climate change on the reorganization of carbon in the Southern Ocean interior using a combination of modeling and observations. We show that the effect of climate variability and climate change on the storage of carbon in the Southern Ocean is nearly as large as the effect of anthropogenic CO2 during the period 1998–2018 compared with the climatology around the year 1995. We identify a distinct climate fingerprint in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), with elevated DIC concentration in the ocean at 300–600 m that reinforces the anthropogenic CO2 signal, and reduced DIC concentration in the ocean around 2,000 m that offsets the anthropogenic CO2 signal. The fingerprint is strongest at lower latitudes (30°–55°S). This fingerprint could serve to monitor the highly uncertain evolution of carbon within this critical ocean basin, and better identify its drivers.

Study of Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Drivers in and around the Ross Sea Marine Protected Area

The Southern Ocean plays a vital role in the global climate system and the life cycle of high-latitude marine life. Phytoplankton is an important source of primary productivity in this ecosystem. Its future changes could affect Southern Ocean geochemistry, carbon export, and higher trophic organisms. To better protect Antarctica, three different marine protected areas (MPA) have been established in the Ross Sea region. Because time-continuous and regionally complete data are difficult to obtain in this region, we obtained data from ocean model outputs to understand the spatiotemporal variability of phytoplankton biomass in this region. This study explored the correlation between phytoplankton biomass and key environmental factors. Phytoplankton biomass peaks in February as temperatures rise and sea ice melts. Correlations also vary between different protected areas. The correlation between biomass, nitrate, and salinity in the Krill Research Zone (KRZ) area was significantly different from other protected areas. In addition, in the context of global warming, Antarctica lacks temperature perception. The model results show a downward trend in temperature and an increase in sea ice coverage in the western Ross Sea that other studies have also pointed to. How phytoplankton biomass will change in protected areas in the future is a question worth considering. Finally, the study simply simulates future regional trends by comparing the biomass distribution in hot years to average years. This will increase our knowledge of the polar system.

Commercial krill fishing within a foraging supergroup of fin whales in the Southern Ocean.

Commercial krill fishing within a foraging supergroup of fin whales in the Southern Ocean.

Controls on Wintertime Ventilation in Southern Drake Passage

AbstractDrake Passage is a key region for transport between the surface and interior ocean, but a mechanistic understanding of this exchange remains immature. Here, we present wintertime, submesoscale‐resolving hydrographic transects spanning the southern boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the Polar Front (PF). Despite the strong surface wind and buoyancy forcing, a freshwater lens suppresses surface‐interior exchange south of the PF; ventilation is instead localized to the PF. Multiple lines of the analysis suggest submesoscale processes contribute to ventilation at the PF, including small‐scale, O(10 km), frontal structure in water mass properties below the mixed layer and modulation of a surface eddy diffusivity at sub‐50 km scales. These results show that ventilation is sensitive to both submesoscale properties near fronts and non‐local processes, for example, sea‐ice melt, that set stratification and mixed layer properties. This highlights the need for adaptive observing strategies to constrain Southern Ocean heat and carbon budgets.

Multidecadal trend of increasing iron stress in Southern Ocean phytoplankton.

Southern Ocean primary productivity is principally controlled by adjustments in light and iron limitation, but the spatial and temporal determinants of iron availability, accessibility, and demand are poorly constrained, which hinders accurate long-term projections. We present a multidecadal record of phytoplankton photophysiology between 1996 and 2022 from historical in situ datasets collected by Biogeochemical Argo (BGC-Argo) floats and ship-based platforms. We find a significant multidecadal trend in irradiance-normalized nonphotochemical quenching due to increasing iron stress, with concomitant declines in regional net primary production. The observed trend of increasing iron stress results from changing Southern Ocean mixed-layer physics as well as complex biological and chemical feedback that is indicative of important ongoing changes to the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Surface ocean carbon budget in the 2017 south Georgia diatom bloom: Observations and validation of profiling biogeochemical argo floats

Estimates of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) derived from biogeochemical Argo floats have the potential to improve our knowledge of the highly variable and partially observed Southern Ocean carbon sink through sampling at improved temporal and spatial resolution. Here we use the data from six biogeochemical Argo floats to characterise near-surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations and fluxes at the site of an intense (Chl-a >3 mg m−3) mesoscale diatom bloom situated northwest of South Georgia. Concurrently, we provide independent analysis and validation of the methodology used by the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observational and Modelling (SOCCOM) project for deriving surface pCO2 from float-based pH and oxygen measurements. We compare the float observations with co-located ship data from bottle samples over a month-long period. When compared to data sampled within 24 h and 25 km of each float profile, we find good agreement with a mean offset of −0.005 ± 0.018 (1σ) between float pH and bottle-derived pH. This translates to comparable pCO2 estimates between ship measurements and floats with a mean difference of 2.6 ± 12.8 (1σ) μatm, providing support for the use of biogeochemical Argo float data to supplement shipboard pCO2 measurements in the Southern Ocean. Based on float-derived pCO2 we calculate a sizeable local flux of CO2 of 24 ± 7 mmol C m−2 d−1 (over a 27-day period) from the atmosphere into the surface mixed layer, driven by a large air-sea pCO2 gradient and strong but variable winds. Despite the considerable air-sea flux, the local mixed layer carbon budget appears to be dominated by entrainment and detrainment of carbon-rich waters into and out of the mixed layer. However, given the large uncertainties associated with these fluxes and the significant challenges associated with closing the mixed layer budget, further research is required to refine float-based mixed layer DIC fluxes.

Southern Ocean Iron Limitation of Primary Production between Past Knowledge and Future Projections

Primary production in the Southern Ocean highly depends on phytoplankton and has been reported to be limited by the availability of the micronutrient iron. The aim of this review is to summarize the past and current knowledge on iron limitation in the Southern Ocean, and specifically how it affects primary producers, thus influencing the whole Southern Ocean community structure, carbon cycling, and large-scale ocean biogeochemistry. In this region, extensive variability exists between different areas regarding iron availability, but also between seasons. Moreover, co-limitations with other abiotic environmental factors exist, further complicating the assessment of the role of iron as limiting factor for phytoplankton productivity. Currently, climate change is altering the Southern Ocean environment. How these changes will affect resident phytoplankton is still not clear, possibly modifying the iron supply mechanisms. Existing projections point towards a possible partial relief of iron stress on phytoplankton, but the interactions between different environmental changes, and the cascade effects they will have, are still poorly understood, and some aspects understudied. Here we try to synthetize the available predictions and uncertainties concerning this topic.

Inconsistency between ship- and Argo float-based pCO2 at the intense upwelling region of the Drake Passage, Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean absorbs a quarter of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere to modulate the climate system. However, less attention has been paid to the CO2 outgassing phenomenon at the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) region of the Southern Ocean due to strong upwelling. Recent studies using autonomous biogeochemical-Argo float revealed a greater winter CO2 outgassing than previously estimated at ACC zone of the Southern Ocean, which, however, remains controversial and urgently needs to be validated. Here we take the Drake Passage as a case study to present new insights into the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and examine the validity of float-based CO2 outgassing. Upon integrating the ship-based data over the past two decades, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability of sea surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in Drake Passage. We show that Drake Passage is acting as a year-round weak CO2 sink, although some CO2 uptake is counteracted by winter CO2 outgassing. The float-based pCO2 values are overall higher than ship-based values in winter, by 6 to 20 µatm (averaged 14 µatm) at the most intensive upwelling region. We then develop a surface carbon balance calculation (considering mixing between surface, subsurface, and upwelled waters) to estimate the potential of surface pCO2 increase due to upwelling, and we find that upwelling of CO2-rich subsurface waters in Drake Passage cannot support an excess ΔpCO2 of 14 µatm as suggested by float detections. We further compare our results to previous study and find that, although we used same datasets and obtained comparable results, the way to conclude the bias in float-based pCO2 would cause significant difference: an uncertainty of ±2.7% (i.e., ± 11 µatm) in float-based pCO2 estimated by other study seems acceptable, however, it is five times larger than the typical ship-based pCO2 uncertainty ( ± 2 µatm), and would cause ~180% bias in CO2 flux estimates. Going forward, there is special need for caution when interpreting the float-based CO2 flux; meanwhile, further comparisons and corrections between float- and ship-based pCO2 are clearly warranted.

Enhance seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 by the changing Southern Ocean carbon sink.

The enhanced seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 has been viewed so far primarily as a Northern Hemisphere phenomenon. Yet, analyses of atmospheric CO2 records from 49 stations between 1980 and 2018 reveal substantial trends and variations in this amplitude globally. While no significant trends can be discerned before 2000 in most places, strong positive trends emerge after 2000 in the southern high latitudes. Using factorial simulations with an atmospheric transport model and analyses of surface ocean Pco2 observations, we show that the increase is best explained by the onset of increasing seasonality of air-sea CO2 exchange over the Southern Ocean around 2000. Underlying these changes is the long-term ocean acidification trend that tends to enhance the seasonality of the air-sea fluxes, but this trend is modified by the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. The seasonal variations of atmospheric CO2 thus emerge as a sensitive recorder of the variations of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Carbon to Nitrogen Uptake Ratios Observed Across the Southern Ocean by the SOCCOM Profiling Float Array

AbstractMeasurements of pH and nitrate from the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling array of profiling floats were used to assess the ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nitrate (NO3) uptake during the spring to summer bloom period throughout the Southern Ocean. Two hundred and forty‐three bloom periods were observed by 115 floats from 30°S to 70°S. Similar calculations were made using the Takahashi surface DIC and nitrate climatology. To separate the effects of atmospheric CO2 exchange and mixing from phytoplankton uptake, the ratios of changes in DIC to nitrate of surface waters (ΔDIC/ΔNO3) were computed in the Biogeochemical Southern Ocean State Estimate (B‐SOSE) model. Phytoplankton uptake of DIC and nitrate are fixed in B‐SOSE at the Redfield Ratio (RR; 6.6 mol C/mol N). Deviations in the B‐SOSE ΔDIC/ΔNO3 must be due to non‐biological effects of CO2 gas exchange and mixing. ΔDIC/ΔNO3 values observed by floats and in the Takahashi climatology were corrected for the non‐biological effects using B‐SOSE. The corrected, in situ biological uptake ratio (C:N) occurs at values similar to the RR, with two major exceptions. North of 40°S biological DIC uptake is observed with little or no change in nitrate giving high C:N. In the latitude band at 55°S, the Takahashi data give a low C:N value, while floats are high. This may be due to a change in CO2 air‐sea exchange in this region from uptake during the Takahashi reference year of 2005 to outgassing of CO2 during the years sampled by floats.

A deep-learning estimate of the decadal trends in the Southern Ocean carbon storage

Uptake of atmospheric carbon by the ocean, especially at high latitudes, plays an important role in offsetting anthropogenic emissions. At the surface of the Southern Ocean south of 30∘S, the ocean carbon uptake, which had been weakening in 1990s, strengthened in the 2000s. However, sparseness of in-situ measurements in the ocean interior make it difficult to compute changes in carbon storage below the surface. Here we develop a machine-learning model, which can estimate concentrations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the Southern Ocean up to 4 km depth only using data available at the ocean surface. Our model is fast and computationally inexpensive. We apply it to calculate trends in DIC concentrations over the past three decades and find that DIC decreased in the 1990s and 2000s, but has increased, in particular in the upper ocean since the 2010s. However, the particular circulation dynamics that drove these changes may have differed across zonal sectors of the Southern Ocean. While the near-surface decrease in DIC concentrations would enhance atmospheric CO2 uptake continuing the previously-found trends, weakened connectivity between surface and deep layers and build-up of DIC in deep waters could reduce the ocean’s carbon storage potential.

Indo‐Pacific Sector Dominates Southern Ocean Carbon Outgassing

AbstractThe Southern Ocean modulates the climate system by exchanging heat and carbon dioxide (CO2) between the atmosphere and deep ocean. While this region plays an outsized role in the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon uptake, CO2 is also released to the atmosphere across large swaths of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Southern Ocean outgassing has long been attributed to remineralized carbon from upwelled deep water, but the precise mechanisms by which this water reaches the surface are not well constrained from observations. Using data from a novel array of autonomous biogeochemical profiling floats, we examine Southern Ocean air‐sea CO2 fluxes and the pathways that transfer carbon from the ocean interior into the mixed layer where air‐sea exchange occurs. These float‐based flux estimates of unprecedented spatial resolution indicate that carbon outgassing occurs predominantly in the Indo‐Pacific sector of the ACC due to variations in the mean surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). We show that this zonal asymmetry in surface pCO2, and consequently air‐sea carbon fluxes, stems primarily from regional variability in the mixed‐layer entrainment of upwelled carbon‐rich deep water. These results suggest that a sustained circumpolar observing system is crucial to monitor future changes in oceanic carbon release and uptake.

Development of the Regional Carbon Cycle Model in the Central Pacific Sector of the Southern Ocean

AbstractThis study develops a new regional model of the Southern Ocean including an improved representation of the iron biogeochemistry and ecosystem component, nesting within a biogeochemical ocean state estimate, and benchmarking with a suite of observations. The regional domain focuses on the Udintsev Fracture Zone (UFZ) in the central Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. The UFZ is characterized by the deep gap between the Pacific‐Antarctic Ridge and the East Pacific Rise, which is one of the key “choke points” of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current where major Southern Ocean fronts are constrained within close proximity to this topographic feature. It is also a region of elevated mesoscale eddy activity, especially downstream of the UFZ. The model reproduces observed partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the surface water (pCO2) remarkably well from seasonal to interannual timescales relative to prior studies (r = 0.89). The seasonality of pCO2 is difficult to simulate correctly because it is a small residual between the opposing influences of temperature and carbon. This model represents an intermittent double peak pattern of pCO2; one driven by the summertime high temperature and another from the wintertime high of dissolved inorganic carbon. The model also captures the spatial and temporal structure of the regional net primary production with respect to the satellite ocean color products (r = 0.57). The model is further validated by comparing it with biogeochemical float observations from the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, revealing the model performance and challenges to accurately represent physical and biogeochemical properties in frontal regions.

Constraining the Contribution of Hydrothermal Iron to Southern Ocean Export Production Using Deep Ocean Iron Observations

Hydrothermal iron supply contributes to the Southern Ocean carbon cycle via the regulation of regional export production. However, as hydrothermal iron input estimates are coupled to helium, which are uncertain depending on whether helium inputs are based on ridge spreading rates or inverse modelling, questions remain regarding the magnitude of the export production impacts. A particular challenge is the limited observations of dissolved iron (dFe) supply from the abyssal Southern Ocean ridge system to directly assess different hydrothermal iron supply scenarios. We combine ocean biogeochemical modelling with new observations of dFe from the abyssal Southern Ocean to assess the impact of hydrothermal iron supply estimated from either ridge spreading rate or inverse helium modelling on Southern Ocean export production. The hydrothermal contribution to dFe in the upper 250 m reduces 4–5 fold when supply is based on inverse modelling, relative to those based on spreading rate, translating into a 36–73% reduction in the impact of hydrothermal iron on export production. However, only the spreading rate input scheme reproduces observed dFe anomalies >1 nM around the circum-Antarctic ridge. The model correlation with observations drops 3 fold under the inverse modelling input scheme. The best dFe scenario has a residence time for hydrothermal iron that is between 21 and 34 years, highlighting the importance of rapid physical mixing to surface waters. Overall, because of its short residence time, hydrothermal Fe supplied locally by circum-Antarctic ridges is most important to the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and our results highlight decoupling between hydrothermal iron and helium supply.

Covariation of Deep Antarctic Pacific Oxygenation and Atmospheric CO2 during the Last 770 kyr

Abstract We present new geochemical evidence of changes in oxygenation of the deep Antarctic Pacific over the last 770 kyr. Our data are derived from redox-sensitive metals and export production proxies extracted from gravity core ANT34/A2-10 at 4217 m water depth. Our results show that oxygen levels in the deep Antarctic Zone (AZ) varied in line with the release of deeply sequestered remineralized carbon to the atmosphere during glacial–interglacial (G–IG) cycles, with lower oxygen concentrations and more carbon storage during glacial periods. Subsequent reductions in the amount of carbon stored at depth were closely associated with improved ventilation during glacial terminations. The systematic and repeated glacial-to-interglacial increases in export production in the AZ region indicate a robust pattern of enhanced Southern Ocean (SO) ventilation during interglacial periods. In addition to the decline in atmospheric CO2 caused by iron fertilization in the Subantarctic AZ (SAZ) during the latter half of the glacial progression, decreases in productivity in the central AZ suggest that the weakening of SO ventilation induced deep AZ carbon sequestration and that this might have made a continuous additional contribution to the CO2 decline from each interglacial peak to glacial maximum. Observed variations in the degree of deep oxygenation and “organic carbon pump” efficiency in the central AZ might be driven primarily by physical “ventilation” processes (i.e., overturning circulation, mixing, and/or air–sea gas exchange). Our records of abyssal oxygenation in the central AZ, which vary in concert with atmospheric CO2 levels over the last several G–IG cycles, provide strong evidence that SO ventilation plays a significant role in controlling variations in both the amount of respired carbon sequestered in the deep ocean and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on G–IG timescales. Specifically, we suggest that the “organic carbon pump” (OCP) in the SAZ and the physical ventilation processes in the AZ (the “carbon venting valve”) acted together synergistically, but dominated at different intervals over G–IG cycles, to repeatedly switch the SO between carbon sink and carbon source, thereby modulating the atmospheric CO2 over the last 770 kyr. These findings provide new insights into the role of the AZ in controlling deep SO carbon sequestration and atmospheric CO2 levels in G–IG cycles.

Strong Southern Ocean carbon uptake evident in airborne observations.

The Southern Ocean plays an important role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), yet estimates of air-sea CO2 flux for the region diverge widely. In this study, we constrained Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 exchange by relating fluxes to horizontal and vertical CO2 gradients in atmospheric transport models and applying atmospheric observations of these gradients to estimate fluxes. Aircraft-based measurements of the vertical atmospheric CO2 gradient provide robust flux constraints. We found an annual mean flux of –0.53 ± 0.23 petagrams of carbon per year (net uptake) south of 45°S during the period 2009–2018. This is consistent with the mean of atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO2 (P2)–based products, but our data indicate stronger annual mean uptake than suggested by recent interpretations of profiling float observations.

Diagnosing CO2 emission-induced feedbacks between the Southern Ocean carbon cycle and the climate system: A multiple Earth System Model analysis using a water mass tracking approach

AbstractAnthropogenic CO2emission-induced feedbacks between the carbon cycle and the climate system perturb the efficiency of atmospheric CO2uptake by land and ocean carbon reservoirs. The Southern Ocean is a region where these feedbacks can be largest and differ most among Earth System Model projections of 21stcentury climate change. To improve our mechanistic understanding of these feedbacks, we develop an automated procedure that tracks changes in the positions of Southern Ocean water masses and their carbon uptake. In an idealised ensemble of climate change projections, we diagnose two carbon–concentration feedbacks driven by atmospheric CO2(due to increasing air-sea CO2partial pressure difference,dpCO2, and reducing carbonate buffering capacity) and two carbon–climate feedbacks driven by climate change (due to changes in the water mass surface outcrop areas and local climate impacts). Collectively these feedbacks increase the CO2uptake by the Southern Ocean and account for one-fifth of the global uptake of CO2emissions. The increase in CO2uptake is primarily dpCO2-driven, with Antarctic intermediate waters making the largest contribution; the remaining three feedbacks partially offset this increase (by ~25%), with maximum reductions in Subantarctic mode waters. The process dominating the decrease in CO2uptake is water mass-dependent: reduction in carbonate buffering capacity in Subtropical and Subantarctic mode waters, local climate impacts in Antarctic intermediate waters, and reduction in outcrop areas in circumpolar deep waters and Antarctic bottom waters. Intermodel variability in the feedbacks is predominatelydpCO2–driven and should be a focus of efforts to constrain projection uncertainty.