South Caucasus Research Articles

U.S. South Caucasus policy and the Republic of Türkiye (2009-2020)

U.S. South Caucasus policy and the Republic of Türkiye (2009-2020)

Scenarios of Future Security Development in the South Caucasus Region

Scenarios of Future Security Development in the South Caucasus Region

National innovation systems: a comparative study of the Baltic and South Caucasus States

National innovation systems: a comparative study of the Baltic and South Caucasus States

South Caucasus under the interests of the great empires (XVI-XVIII centuries)

This article examines the great empires’ imperialist ambitions in the South Cau-casus during the 16th -18th (in particular, till the 1720s) centuries. During this period, the region was under the control of two powerful eastern countries, Per-sia and the Ottomans, which threatened the region’s stability. However, by the mid-sixteenth century, a new political landscape began to be shaped, with Mos-cow State as a third power with strategic interests in the region. Unlike Persia and the Ottomans, Russia adopted a comparatively diplomatic approach to its involve-ment in the region based on avoiding military confrontation whenever possible. Within the frames of the study, we employed the historical-comparative method, analyzed various historical facts, and conducted a systemic analysis to draw rele-vant conclusions. Our research included an examination of written sources in this period. Through this analysis, we discovered that Moscow’s primary objective during this period was to maintain its position in the Caucasus by creating its in-fluence on the individual South Caucasian governors. Our research also revealed that the Georgian kings and princes needed to understand the objectives of Rus-sia’s foreign policy despite their desire to be liberated from Persia and the Otto-mans. This lack of understanding was partially conditioned by the complexity of Russia’s regional strategic goals. Nevertheless, the common faith shared by Russia and Georgia provided a “good bait” for Russia to expand its influence in the region. In preparation for its eventual attack on the South Caucasus, Russia complied with various types of political, economic, and statistical information to ensure its success. The information was critical to the success of Russia’s imperialist ambi-tions in the South Caucasus in the 16th - early 18th centuries.

E-KARABAKH AND BEYOND: REVEALING THE DIGITAL LANDSCAPES IN AZERBAIJAN'S LIBERATED TERRITORIES

Following the second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan liberated its territories from 30 years of long-brewing Armenian occupation, which today are considered the potential economic and geopolitical landscapes for not only the socio- economic development of the country but to involve foreign investments and projects to these recovered areas. The Karabakh War of 2020 caused a change in the balance of power and status quo in the South Caucasus region as Azerbaijan in recent times started the rehabilitation and reconstruction processes, the placement of IDPs, involvement of investments, launch of tender projects, etc. to provide the socio-economic development of Karabakh region as a future E-Karabakh. The core objective of the paper is to ensure scientific insights and recommendations for the transition of the conventional Karabakh region to the digitalized so-called E-Karabakh region to enhance the economic development of the region. The authors' focus primarily delves into aspects including the advancement of a green economy and green growth policy, agriculture, and fostering a clean ecological environment in Karabakh. The article also analyzes the enhancement of ICT-based infrastructure, the integration of high digital technologies, and the potential emergence of Karabakh as a prominent hub for technology and innovation in the South Caucasus region. The paper aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by presenting valuable insights for government officials, decision-makers, and experts in this field, seeking to be a substantial scientific paper, offering policy-based information to aid in making informed and rational decisions.

THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATION OF THE ZANGAZUR CORRIDOR: A DRIVER FOR REGIONAL ADVANCEMENT AND LINKAGE

This research delves into the geopolitical role of the Zangazur Corridor in the recently liberated territories of Azerbaijan, examining its potential as a catalyst for regional development and enhanced connectivity. Employing the gravity model, the study investigates the corridor's influence on economic growth, trade facilitation, and geopolitical dynamics among Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Iran, and Türkiye. The comprehensive methodology incorporates a detailed literature review, geopolitical analyses, and economic assessments. Through this approach, the study amalgamates historical, economic, and geopolitical insights, comprehensively understanding the corridor's implications on regional integration. The main results underscore the Zangazur Corridor as a transformative conduit, pivotal in fostering economic opportunities and enhancing regional connections. It depicts the corridor's capacity to fortify trade routes, reshape infrastructure, and bolster regional cooperation. The study also explores the geopolitical implications, presenting the challenges and opportunities arising from this infrastructure project. This article offers a nuanced understanding of the corridor's potential transformative impact on economic synergies within the South Caucasus nations. It culminates in a comprehensive evaluation of the Zangazur Corridor's role in the region's economic and geopolitical landscape.

The Secret Diplomacy of Turkish Nationalists and The Soviets In 1919

Following the Treaty of Mudros, a pivotal moment in the history of the weakened Ottoman Empire, Turkish nationalist forces emerged and initiat-ed a struggle for national liberation. To achieve success in this endeavor, it became imperative to establish a strategic alliance with a party that shared common interests with Turkish nationalists and was amenable to providing military assistance. In this context, amidst the conflict against imperialist forces, Soviet Russia emerged as the sole viable guarantor of survival. The Bolshevik leadership, recognizing the need for an ally in the south, perceived the Kemalist revolution as a means of propagating socialism and replacing pan-Islamist ideologies with revolutionary nationalism. This paper delves into the historical events at the onset of the national libera-tion movement in Turkey. Its primary objective is to identify the key individ-uals involved in negotiations between the Kemalist Turks and the Bolsheviks and to elucidate the dynamics of these negotiations. The study employs qual-itative research methods, particularly descriptive and historical event inter-pretation methods, to substantiate hypotheses and contextualize the alliance between the Bolsheviks and Turkish nationalists. Furthermore, this research endeavors to ascertain the negotiators’ identities through an analysis of pri-mary sources. Through a rigorous examination of historical facts and analysis, our study concludes that the alliance between the Bolsheviks and the Kemalist Turks was forged out of mutual interest. The initial meeting between Georgian Chekists and Turkish nationalists in Havza played a pivotal role in forming this alliance, which, in turn, had profound ramifications for global geopolitics and the fate of the South Caucasus.

South Caucasus in the Phase of Russian-Ukrainian War: New Security Challenges and Possible Scenarios for Development

The paper mainly examines the economic, political and military situation in the South Caucasus after the start of Russian-Ukrainian war. In the paper we are focused on the question of what kind of consequences does the Russian-Ukrainian war has on the countries of the South Caucasus. Relying on the analytical-forecasting approach, we also are trying to forecast what developments can be expected in this region. On this regard we especially look onto the facts from Armenia’s perspective. Of course, the discussion of the situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan was also under our great attention, because we also had set a task to compare the processes that took place in the three countries of the region.
 The modernity of the topic can be measured, first of all, by its global political significance: Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to be on the top of world political processes. On the other hand, it is actual when studying political and economic processes in the post-Soviet territory. By and large, as a result, the South Caucasus is a part of the European and Middle Eastern security sphere, or at least has an important role in them. Therefore, the ongoing developments in this region are not local and may also affect the European, Middle Eastern and the processes also in other regions.
 Russian-Ukrainian conflict has affected on foreign policy behavior of the Southern Caucasus countries. The region is now under the turbulence zone, so we are not aware from being faced by new challenges and security issues. Since we have highly evaluated the impact of the conflict on the countries of the region, we have also tried to make certain predictions regarding possible future development scenarios, which could be as recommendations for foreign policy decision making structures of Armenia.

The Paradoxical Role of Mediators in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Prospects and Concerns

This paper explores the underlying factors that pushed Russia, the European Union (EU), Türkiye, and somehow the United States U.S. to offer mediation to settle the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The eruption of the fierce clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia ended the war that happened in 2020 when Russia brokered the ceasefire. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine was signaling renewed fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. Hence, some actors started to step into the hostility to facilitate diplomatic efforts to lower the temperatures of the conflicting parties. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan made a military assault on Artsakh in 2023 and gained a final victory over Nagorno Karabakh. Amid tension, the EU, Russia, and Türkiye will hold a responsible role and bring hopes that diplomacy may bring Azerbaijan and Armenia closer to peace, and an eventual settlement will ensue. The research demonstrates that a new geopolitical change has been taking place in the South Caucasus region, which is causing complexities amid some options set by the mediators.

Бага Ойгорын палеолитын хадны зургийн дурсгал

In 2004, Ts. Turbat made a discovery of a significant site of engraved rock art, dating back to the Upper Paleolithic period. Situated on the south bank of the Baga Oigor River, this remarkable site lies within the protective zone of the World Heritage site of the Mongolian Altai rock art complex. The Baga Oigor-VI complex boasts an impressive array of 41 depictions featuring animals such as horses, ibex, argali, deer, cattle, and snakes from the Upper Paleolithic period, complemented by an additional 16 images originating from the Bronze Age, constituting a total of 57 images. Noteworthy is the superior preservation status of this monument, eclipsing that of comparable sites and presenting unparalleled clarity in visibility. The scarcity of open Paleolithic rock art sites across the globe that bear resemblance to this exceptional find underscores its singular nature. The geographically nearest analogous site of significance is the Gobustan monument in the South Caucasus followed by largest concentration of similar monuments in Iberian peninsula. Beyond the renowned ochre paintings of the Khoid Tsenkher Cave, an extensive exploration of carved rock art open air monuments is underway, elevating the Mongolian Altai region to the status of a pivotal hub in the realm of ancient art. The sheer abundance and widespread distribution of these monuments contribute to its characterization as a veritable “cradle of prehistoric art”.

The golden winged bull (griffins) images in ancient religions

The article analyzes images of fantastic animals accidentally discovered on the territory of the Lerik district in southeastern Azerbaijan. These noteworthy discoveries are currently stored in the valuables collection of the National Museum of History of Azerbaijan. These objects testify to the high development of art in ancient times. Considering the resemblance of these images to those in West Asian regions, it is evident that Azerbaijan's ancient metalworking and jewelry art had extensive connections. This can be linked to religious beliefs, cultural-ethnic ties, and longstanding trade relations. Nevertheless, in the South Caucasus, particularly in Azerbaijan, the origins of these bull images are more ancient, primarily represented by clay and bronze figurines. This underscores the continuity of traditions in ancient art, with these finds likely dating back to the Mannean period (9th–8th centuries BC).

Investigation of Ambient Seismic Noise in Different Region of Georgia

Georgia, like the whole South Caucasus, is a tectonically and structurally complex region. It is one of the active segments of the Alpine-Himalayan belt, therefore it is important to assess the seismic hazard for Georgia. At the regional scale, this assessment is evaluated by applying probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that identifies the annual probability of exceedance of various ground motion levels defined in terms of selected ground motion intensity measures, such as PGA or spectral accelerations (SA) corresponding to various return periods related to possible future earthquake scenarios for a site represented by soil classes A according to EC8, Euro-code 8-EN 1998-1 (1998). At the local scale, seismic hazard assessment is made by analyzing the geological, geomorphological, geotechnical and geophysical characteristics of the site, as it is well established that the incoming seismic motion can change in amplitude, frequency, and duration due the site-specific local characteristics. That is the subject of micro-zonation investigation. Site – specific local characteristics are presented by the following parameters: Dominant frequency, Vs,30 (average shear-wave velocity to a depth of 30 meters) and amplification factor. In this work, we presented results of geophysical survey assessing local site conditions by dominant frequency that allows identification of similar seismic response areas. For this purpose, seismic noise records have been used first time in Georgia.

The Causes, Dynamics, and Consequences of the War in Ukraine in the Perceptions of Armenian Youth

This study was conducted between October 2022 and January 2023, aiming to elucidate and highlight changes in the political perceptions, concerns, assessments, and aspirations of Armenia’s youth. The main objectives of the study were to discover the concerns of Armenia’s youth regarding the expansion of the war in Ukraine, to find out the potential effects of the Russian‑Ukrainian conflict and the war in Ukraine on the region of South Caucasus, and on Armenia’s security, and to assess the changes that the war has brought about in the lives of Armenia’s youth and society. Armenia’s youth holds two distinct perspectives on the Russian‑Ukrainian conflict. The first group perceives the conflict primarily as a geographical issue, representing another historical phase of global division and a struggle for dominance among superpowers and alliances. This viewpoint considers certain post‑Soviet countries, including Ukraine and Armenia, and some Arab nations like Syria, to be undergoing a modern geographic transformation. In this context, the 2020 Karabakh War has also been viewed. Russia, the West (NATO, EU, USA), and Turkey compete to exert influence over these countries. From this standpoint, the war in Ukraine is viewed as a battleground, showcasing the broader Russia‑West conflict. Conversely, the second group attributes the Russian‑Ukrainian conflict and war to the personal qualities, aspirations, approaches, and issues of the leaders of Russia and Ukraine.

THE EUROPEAN UNION’S CONFLICT RESOLUTION POLICY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

The South Caucasus region has served as a frontier between Western and Eastern civilizations for millennia. The area is rife with conflict due to international borders drawn after the collapse of the Soviet Union, without regard to historical consolidation and international legal reconciliation. The EU’s approach to conflict resolution is underpinned by its political legitimacy and economic power, which enhance its ability to assert its presence in areas of conflict or crisis. However, while there is a desire among the region’s countries for greater engagement with the EU, there is an asynchrony between the Union’s security policy and the expectations of the South Caucasian states, resulting in an inefficient security situation. It seems that the security cacophony in and around the South Caucasus will continue unless there is a transition from neorealist behavior to positive peace and unless all actors change their foreign policy thinking.

The Problem of Nagorno-Karabakh and Iran’s Policy in the South Caucasus

It has already finally become obvious that Nikol Pashinyan has reached the finish line in the implementation of the program that was entrusted to him by the Anglo-Saxon forces in 2018. Skillfully manipulating the feelings of the people and society, using the existing Artsakh problem for his own purposes, using funds received from the West, and also, not possessing the knowledge and skills of state building, he destroyed the institutions of governance of Armenia, the economy, defense capability and foreign policy structure of the country. A continuation of the actions of the Prime Minister of Armenia regarding Artsakh was the closure of the only vital artery for Artsakh, the Lachin corridor, from December 12, 2022. In this difficult economic and military-political situation, the Armenian leadership, instead of strengthening ties with its strategic partner Russia and creating a Moscow-Yerevan-Tehran defense bloc, set a course for changing allies and defected to the Western camp. As a result, in 2022, the Armenian Ministry of Defense canceled joint exercises with the CSTO. They abandoned the CSTO observers on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. On April 18, 2023, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia must forever renounce territorial claims to other countries, referring to Nagorno-Karabakh. And President Ilham Aliyev suggested that the Armenians of Karabakh either accept Azerbaijani citizenship or leave. By distancing himself from solving the Karabakh problem, N. Pashinyan thereby questioned the prospect of Russian peacekeepers being in the region. Washington and Brussels, taking advantage of the weakness and incompetence in the foreign policy activities of the Armenian leadership, are carrying out an onslaught in order to quarrel between Armenia and Iran. And thereby ensure NATO’s presence in the South Caucasus. They need this for the final confrontation with both Russia and Iran.

Turkey’s Role in South Caucasus

This paper will study Turkey’s influence in South Caucasus. The study applies Barry Buzan and Ole Waever’s Regional Security Complex Theorem (RSCT) to understand Turkey’s politics in the region since the end of the Cold War. The author of this paper shares the belief with the coiners of the RSCT that it is necessary to combine systemic, regional, national, and domestic factors to provide the most accurate description and prediction of potential developments in international politics. Importantly, it is crucial to wisely combine the age-old tenets of Realist theory with important constructivist concepts to better explain security. In this regard RSCT, in the humble opinion of the author, is the most complete theorem in the field of international relations to analyze the behavior of any particular state and/or dynamics of global and regional interaction among states. For the purposes of the research it is important to place Turkey correctly in the framework of Buzan and Waever’s theory and concepts - that is, classify Turkey correctly according to their taxonomy and fortunately, they help me with this. They have devoted important part of their work to insulator states such as Turkey. Turkey’s role as an insulator state is particularly interesting to me. To paint a comprehensive picture of the geopolitics in Caucasus the roles of the US, Russia and EU will be investigated from the perspective of RSCT. Again, the investigation will be detailed and hopefully, productive. Theoretical Framework: Following theories will be presented before the author suggests the goggles that should be fashioned for the purpose of this research: "Political realism theory", whose main subject is the state; The theory of "cooperative security" - Cohen's concept, which includes recognition of common threats by states and joint efforts on it; Complex theory of regional security - RSCT, which is also related to the Copenhagen school.

Pottery in the Bronze Age of Nakhchivan

The article studies pottery in the Nakhichivan the bronze age. It was defined that pottery wasone of the ancient craftsmanship areas in Nakhichivan. The pottery products differed from one another in their size, shape, ornaments on them, the material the were made of and the technology. The pottery products made by Nakhichivan potters were divided into two groups-welfare and kitchen ceramics. Their similar monuments in the South Caucasus and the Middle East in the same period, the archaeological materials found in the Urmia basin and Eastern Anatolia. in the decoration of ceramics technical methods have been used. "S", "M", horn, etc. Various signs, spiral, zigzag, swastika, angles, wavy, straight line, triangle, quadrilateral and so on. Geometric patterns are used. They are sometimes simple, sometimes compounded by drawing together with other pictures. In each design used in decoration, ceramics have a profound meaning as well as artistry ability, taste, religion-ideological views are important place. A group of patterns used in decorate is a local feature. A group of patterns spread widely.

Bioleaching of Chalcopyrite by a New Strain Leptospirillum ferrodiazotrophum Ksh-L Isolated from a Dump-Bioleaching System of Kashen Copper-Molybdenum Mine

A new strain of Leptospirillum sp. Ksh-L was isolated from a dump-bioleaching system of the Kashen copper-molybdenum mine (South Caucasus). Ksh-L is an obligate chemolithoautotroph, capable of oxidizing ferrous iron (Fe2+). Cells are Gram-negative and vibrio- or spirillum-shaped of a 0.5–3 µm size. The optimal conditions for the growth are 35 °C and pH 1.6–1.8. Cu2+ and Zn2+ have different effects on the oxidizing ability of the Leptospirillum sp. Ksh-L culture depending on the phase of growth and concentration of Fe2+. Under the conditions of gradually increasing the concentration of copper in the medium, during 4–5 successive subculturing experiments, it was possible to obtain an adapted culture of Leptospirillum sp. Ksh-L, capable of growing in the medium in the presence of up to 400 mM Cu2+. A bioleaching experiment indicates that Ksh-L can efficiently oxidize chalcopyrite. However, the bioleaching of copper from chalcopyrite by Leptospirillum ferrodiazotropum Ksh-L increased about 1.8 times in association with At. thiooxidans ATCC 19377. Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rRNA gene sequences (GenBank ID ON226845) shows that strain Ksh-L forms a single cluster into Group III. The strain possesses 99.59%, 99.52%, and 96.60% sequence similarity with the strains YTW-96-06, YTW-66-06, and Leptospirillum ferrodiazotrophum 5C in Group III, respectively.

The Challenging Path of Georgia towards NATO Membership

Georgia is a small nation situated in a region characterised by instability, where the occurrence of conflict escalation has become a frequent occurrence within the realm of regional politics. Ensuring stability in the South Caucasus region is a paramount concern for Georgia in terms of its security agenda. This commitment is clearly articulated in Georgia's National Security Concept (NSC), which was officially approved in 2011. Additionally, Georgia's Foreign Policy Strategy for the period 2019-2022 also underscores the importance of maintaining peace in the South Caucasus region. The level of public support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) affiliation in Georgia has been considerable, mirroring the widespread agreement among major political parties over the objective of attaining NATO membership. In 2018, a revision was made to the Georgian Constitution, including a paragraph that specifies the need for all governmental institutions to actively strive towards the objective of Georgia's prospective participation in NATO.[1] The admission to NATO has been widely regarded as the most reliable means to achieve a state of stability and prosperity, enabling the nation to fully capitalise on its capabilities and opportunities. This article is characterised by its descriptive approach and aims to examine the dynamics of the evolution of NATO-Georgia ties throughout the history.

Azerbaijan – Armenia – Georgia: Challenges and Prospects of Interstate Cooperation

In the conditions of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, the question of the future world order is more than urgent. The introduction of the sanctions regime against Russia led to the intensification of the latter’s efforts in the direction of creating its own ecosystem of survival, in which the states of the South Caucasus, in particular, the former Soviet republics such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, are considered indispensable components. In their research, the authors analyze the features of the socio-political development of the named states of the South Caucasus in its relationship with the events of the Russian-Ukrainian war and changes. The authors draw attention to the importance of the South Caucasus for ensuring the ability of the Russian Federation to continue the war against Ukraine at the current stage. In its desire to regain its status as a world leader, the Russian Federation is trying with all its might to preserve the existing status quo in the region, on the one hand, while simultaneously improving its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, on the other. The latter was quite clearly revealed during the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and the events of September 19, 2023 in Nagorno-Karabakh. The return of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan due to the termination of the existence of the NKR from January 1, 2024 opens up new prospects not only for regional development, but also for the resolution of other “frozen” conflicts created by Moscow. Eliminating the factor of military confrontation from the regional order is an important element of geopolitical stability and security in the region. And Georgia in this case plays an important role, on the one hand, as a potential mediator, and on the other, as a state that has a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan and good-neighborly relations with Armenia.