The Paradoxical Role of Mediators in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Prospects and Concerns

Abstract

This paper explores the underlying factors that pushed Russia, the European Union (EU), Türkiye, and somehow the United States U.S. to offer mediation to settle the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The eruption of the fierce clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia ended the war that happened in 2020 when Russia brokered the ceasefire. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine was signaling renewed fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. Hence, some actors started to step into the hostility to facilitate diplomatic efforts to lower the temperatures of the conflicting parties. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan made a military assault on Artsakh in 2023 and gained a final victory over Nagorno Karabakh. Amid tension, the EU, Russia, and Türkiye will hold a responsible role and bring hopes that diplomacy may bring Azerbaijan and Armenia closer to peace, and an eventual settlement will ensue. The research demonstrates that a new geopolitical change has been taking place in the South Caucasus region, which is causing complexities amid some options set by the mediators.