South Caucasus Region Research Articles

GEOLOGICAL FEATURES AND HYDROCARBON POTENTIAL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN YEVLAKH-AGJABEDI DEPRESSION: A STRATIGRAPHIC AND STRUCTURAL OVERVIEW

The Southeastern part of Yevlakh-Agjabedi depression, situated within the Lesser Transcaucasian monocline, exhibits intricate geological structures and diverse sedimentary sequences crucial for hydrocarbon exploration. This study utilizes extensive geological mapping, stratigraphic profiling, and seismic exploration to delineate the basin’s structural elements and sedimentary formations. Key findings include the presence of Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous volcanogenic terrigenous and Upper Cretaceous volcanogenic carbonate rocks, which exhibit significant variations in thickness and distribution across the basin. The stratigraphic analysis reveals substantial Mesozoic sedimentary sequences that have undergone complex tectonic evolution, with notable implications for hydrocarbon potential. The Upper Cretaceous sediments, in particular, show promising conditions for hydrocarbon accumulation, with favorable paleostructural and lithostratigraphic traps identified. This comprehensive investigation enhances regional geological understanding and provides critical insights into the hydrocarbon exploration prospects within the South Caucasus region.

The Republic of South Ossetia in the Context of Regional Security Threats

The article analyzes the security problems in the South Caucasus. The emphasis is placed on the key security threats to the Republic of South Ossetia, which is actually in a state of latent conflict with Georgia. The article uses the method of situational analysis (sitanalysis), which involves considering the problem at the applied level, identifying all the factors that influence the formation of the situation. The author considers that the most important part of the situational analysis is the development of practical recommendations in order to implement a favorable forecast and, if possible, avoid an unfavorable course of events.According to the author’s main conclusions, the Republic of South Ossetia is currently facing a number of serious external threats to its national security in the South Caucasus. The existing threats, challenges and risks for South Ossetia in the South Caucasus region tend to increase, both in local and regional variants. According to the author, efforts should continue to create a sustainable security architecture in the South Caucasus in order to prevent any violent scenarios for resolving existing contradictions and achieving sustainable peace and stability in the region.

Strategic prospects for using international experience of foreign investment in Armenia

The article analyzes the strategic prospects for creating stable conditions for attracting additional volumes of foreign investment in the Armenian economy, which is due to the lack of own funds for sustainable social and economic development. The relevance of issues related to the role and place of foreign investment in Armenia, occurring due to the globalization of the world and regional economy, creating or limiting conditions for the movement of capital, has increased sharply in light of the sharp intensification of the policy of attracting foreign investment in the South Caucasus region. The practical experience of the transition period of the market economy of Armenia is summarized, as the country became more dependent on the level of regional and global integration. At this time, flows of foreign capital emerged not only in the form of government borrowings, but also in the form of diaspora transfers, assistance from international organizations, and the creation of joint ventures with Armenian entrepreneurs. Restrictions on obtaining high technologies, both in the form of goods and technical documentation, and in the form of direct investment, were gradually lifted.

Chorological analysis of species of the genus Dianthus in the South Caucasus region with an emphasis on the flora of Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic

The purpose of the study was to conduct a chorological analysis of six species of the genus Dianthus in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, using field and molecular genetic methods. The main focus was on their geographical distribution, population status, and genetic diversity. As a result of the study of six species of the genus Dianthus, significant differences were found in their geographical distribution, ecological niches, and adaptation to local conditions. Molecular genetic analysis showed a high level of genetic diversity among populations of Dianthus nahcivanensis and Dianthus nakhchivanicus, which confirmed their uniqueness and endemic status. It has also been proven that the genus Dianthus has a high species diversity and shows significant variations in its distribution depending on the geographical and climatic conditions of the region. The study used geobotanic methods to determine the habitats of species and analyse factors affecting their distribution. In particular, features of the habitat were identified in connection with the local conditions of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which included a significant number of endemic species. The genetic analysis performed using the polymerase chain reaction method and sequencing helped to identify the level of genetic diversity and establish phylogenetic relationships between populations. It was found that Dianthus raddeanus, Dianthus parviflorus, Dianthus nakhchivanicus and Dianthus nahcivanensis species are more vulnerable due to the impact of anthropogenic activities, in particular agriculture and grazing, which has led to a decrease in the area of their habitat. Modelling using the maximum entropy method showed potential zones of expansion of species habitats under favourable ecological conditions. The results obtained were important for understanding the ecological patterns of distribution of the genus Dianthus in the region and the development of strategies for preserving biodiversity in the face of climate change and anthropogenic pressure. Based on the study, it was recommended to create or expand protected areas, limit anthropogenic impact, and conduct additional monitoring of the number and genetic structure of Dianthus populations

Can Small States Reshape Their Regional Identities? Examining Georgia’s Cognitive Dissonance between South Caucasus and Eastern Europe

Abstract Georgia represents an interesting case to study the agency of small states in reshaping their regional identity and external environment. Although much of the world has considered Georgia as politically part of the South Caucasus region, the country’s political elites themselves have long attempted to escape the geographic boundaries of the South Caucasus region and relocate their country into Eastern Europe. We argue that Georgian elites were partially successful in their quest for foreign political identity change. Although they did not manage to entirely change the international perception about Georgia’s geographic belonging, the country has politically moved closer to Eastern Europe and is considered to be part of “Associated Trio” together with Ukraine and Moldova—and recently became an EU candidate. From a theoretical perspective, we argue that Georgia’s quest for foreign policy identity recalibration fits the constructivist paradigm of international relations well. It can be argued that Georgia’s political elites were partially driven by ideational factors and were ignorant of the balance of power in their external environment, which cost the country the lost wars and compromised territorial sovereignty.

The Main Stages of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict and the Consequences of the Conflict

The South Caucasus region has always been an important player in regional geopolitics, closely connected with the national interests and security of Russia, Iran, and Turkiye. Its significance increased significantly after the Soviet Union's collapse. The region is a strategically vital transport hub, where communication and trade routes from East to West (the ancient Silk Road) and from South to North intersect. However, ongoing conflicts between Georgia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, as well as between Azerbaijan and Armenia, have hindered the region's economic development. These conflicts have partially blocked the region, which has crucially impacted its political development. The most dangerous conflict is between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2020, Azerbaijan regained control of seven regions around Karabakh, which were occupied by Armenians during the first Armenian-Azerbaijani war in the early 1990s. In 2023, during a one-day special operation, Azerbaijan established full control over the territory of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region. The Azerbaijani army's victorious military operations have changed the balance of forces, opening up new opportunities for strengthening peace and developing economic, political, and cultural cooperation between the countries of the region. This paper examines how the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation impacted on the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasian region. The official and historical documentation as well as diplomatic reports and media outlets analyzed for these purposes. The comparative-descriptive method was applied to analyze the sources.

Genesis of Azerbaijan-Artsakh Conflict

The purpose of the article, based on domestic and foreign sources, is to show when, for what reason and under what circumstances the Azerbaijani Artsakh conflict arose. In order to achieve the set goal, the following problems were put forward: when was the state called Azerbaijan created, when and under what circumstances did the Azerbaijani-Artsakh conflict arise, what was the status of Artsakh at the time of the conflict arise? The article is written through a comparison and comparative study of the original sources related to the issue, as well as an examination analysis of the scientific works related to it. As a result of the joint examination of facts and documents related to the issue, as well as historical and political literature, we came to the conclusion that the Azerbaijani-Artsakh conflict arose in 1918, when the Ottoman Turkish government created a fake "state" called the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region through the invasion of Transcaucasia by the Turkish army. 103 years ago, Soviet Azerbaijan recognized Nagorno Karabagh as part of Soviet Armenia. Besides that, 103 years ago, Soviet Azerbaijan recognized the right of the Armenians of Artsakh to self-determination. Despite that, by an illegal decision of the Caucasus Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Soviet Russia a political body of a third country of July 5, 1921 the territory of Artsakh was forcibly included into Soviet Azerbaijan, without taking into account the will of the people of Artsakh.

Navigating Geopolitical Alliances: Understanding Azerbaijan’s Relationship with Israel over Iran

This article examines the complex relationships between Iran, Azerbaijan, and Israel and attempts to provide an explanation for Azerbaijan’s greater inclination toward Israel than Iran. It analyzes Iran’s view of the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan in the larger South Caucasus context, taking into account historical background, present events, and future predictions. Using a wide range of geopolitical analyses and sources, the study aims to understand the manifold variables that impact Iran’s attitude toward Azerbaijan’s alignment with Israel. From a theoretical perspective, the article explores the strategic features of this triangular connection by means of a neorealist paradigm. It applies game theory in order to assess the many strategic alternatives accessible to Iran, Azerbaijan, and Israel, emphasizing the reasons for Azerbaijan’s inclination towards Israel. The study improves our knowledge of the complicated dynamics underlying Azerbaijan’s preference for Israel over Iran, as well as the broader ramifications for the South Caucasus region, by analyzing the interactions between the variables at play. It seeks to highlight the historical, geopolitical, and strategic factors that contribute to Azerbaijan’s alignment with Israel over Iran, as well as the effect of this alignment on the geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus region.

Scenarios of Future Security Development in the South Caucasus Region

Scenarios of Future Security Development in the South Caucasus Region

E-KARABAKH AND BEYOND: REVEALING THE DIGITAL LANDSCAPES IN AZERBAIJAN'S LIBERATED TERRITORIES

Following the second Karabakh War in 2020, Azerbaijan liberated its territories from 30 years of long-brewing Armenian occupation, which today are considered the potential economic and geopolitical landscapes for not only the socio- economic development of the country but to involve foreign investments and projects to these recovered areas. The Karabakh War of 2020 caused a change in the balance of power and status quo in the South Caucasus region as Azerbaijan in recent times started the rehabilitation and reconstruction processes, the placement of IDPs, involvement of investments, launch of tender projects, etc. to provide the socio-economic development of Karabakh region as a future E-Karabakh. The core objective of the paper is to ensure scientific insights and recommendations for the transition of the conventional Karabakh region to the digitalized so-called E-Karabakh region to enhance the economic development of the region. The authors' focus primarily delves into aspects including the advancement of a green economy and green growth policy, agriculture, and fostering a clean ecological environment in Karabakh. The article also analyzes the enhancement of ICT-based infrastructure, the integration of high digital technologies, and the potential emergence of Karabakh as a prominent hub for technology and innovation in the South Caucasus region. The paper aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by presenting valuable insights for government officials, decision-makers, and experts in this field, seeking to be a substantial scientific paper, offering policy-based information to aid in making informed and rational decisions.

The Paradoxical Role of Mediators in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Prospects and Concerns

This paper explores the underlying factors that pushed Russia, the European Union (EU), Türkiye, and somehow the United States U.S. to offer mediation to settle the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The eruption of the fierce clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia ended the war that happened in 2020 when Russia brokered the ceasefire. However, Russia’s war in Ukraine was signaling renewed fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. Hence, some actors started to step into the hostility to facilitate diplomatic efforts to lower the temperatures of the conflicting parties. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan made a military assault on Artsakh in 2023 and gained a final victory over Nagorno Karabakh. Amid tension, the EU, Russia, and Türkiye will hold a responsible role and bring hopes that diplomacy may bring Azerbaijan and Armenia closer to peace, and an eventual settlement will ensue. The research demonstrates that a new geopolitical change has been taking place in the South Caucasus region, which is causing complexities amid some options set by the mediators.

THE EUROPEAN UNION’S CONFLICT RESOLUTION POLICY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

The South Caucasus region has served as a frontier between Western and Eastern civilizations for millennia. The area is rife with conflict due to international borders drawn after the collapse of the Soviet Union, without regard to historical consolidation and international legal reconciliation. The EU’s approach to conflict resolution is underpinned by its political legitimacy and economic power, which enhance its ability to assert its presence in areas of conflict or crisis. However, while there is a desire among the region’s countries for greater engagement with the EU, there is an asynchrony between the Union’s security policy and the expectations of the South Caucasian states, resulting in an inefficient security situation. It seems that the security cacophony in and around the South Caucasus will continue unless there is a transition from neorealist behavior to positive peace and unless all actors change their foreign policy thinking.

The Challenging Path of Georgia towards NATO Membership

Georgia is a small nation situated in a region characterised by instability, where the occurrence of conflict escalation has become a frequent occurrence within the realm of regional politics. Ensuring stability in the South Caucasus region is a paramount concern for Georgia in terms of its security agenda. This commitment is clearly articulated in Georgia's National Security Concept (NSC), which was officially approved in 2011. Additionally, Georgia's Foreign Policy Strategy for the period 2019-2022 also underscores the importance of maintaining peace in the South Caucasus region. The level of public support for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) affiliation in Georgia has been considerable, mirroring the widespread agreement among major political parties over the objective of attaining NATO membership. In 2018, a revision was made to the Georgian Constitution, including a paragraph that specifies the need for all governmental institutions to actively strive towards the objective of Georgia's prospective participation in NATO.[1] The admission to NATO has been widely regarded as the most reliable means to achieve a state of stability and prosperity, enabling the nation to fully capitalise on its capabilities and opportunities. This article is characterised by its descriptive approach and aims to examine the dynamics of the evolution of NATO-Georgia ties throughout the history.

“Soft Power” as a Part of Turkish Foreign Policy in Georgia

This study examines the strategic use of soft power as an integral component of Türkiye’s foreign policy in the South Caucasus region. The author explores the strategies and mechanisms by which Türkiye projects it’s cultural, economic, and diplomatic influence in the region. It also examines Türkiye’s purposeful efforts to improve its image, authority and significance in Georgia. Paying special attention to cultural diplomacy, educational exchanges, humanitarian aid and economic partnership, the paper reveals how Türkiye seeks to shape its perceptions, develop cooperation and strengthen its geopolitical position. Methodologically, the study is based on case studies of Turkish soft power in Georgia. In addition, the author analyzes the general framework of Turkish policy in Georgia using the historical-descriptive method. The content analysis of Turkish media and other Turkish cultural agents such as TV shows, films, serials, etc. was used to understand how Ankara uses soft power to promote its cultural and political interests in Georgia. Through empirical analysis, the study examines specific examples of Türkiye’s soft power initiatives, including the promotion of the Turkish language and culture, educational scholarships and humanitarian aid. In addition, the study examines the perception of Türkiye’s soft power initiatives by the local population and assesses their impact on regional dynamics. The findings emphasize the multifaceted nature of Turkish soft power and the consequences of its use for Georgia. Given Georgia’s Christian majority, Türkiye relies on secular instruments of its soft power, while not giving up religious influence on the Muslim communities of Georgia.

Before the Great States. Caucasians from the Neolithic to the Early Iron Age

This article focuses on the history of the Caucasus and its people from the 5th to the 2nd millennium BC. One of the first significant developments in the history of the South Caucasus was the Kuro-Araxes culture, which united various Caucasian peoples living in the South Caucasus region, Anatolia, northwestern Iran, and northern Mesopotamia. This culture served as an ancestral foundation for the Proto-Kolkh, Trialet, Karmirberd, Kizylvank, and Uzerlin-Sevan cultures. In the North Caucasus, the Maikop and Dolmen cultures were prominent during the Bronze Age. These cultures provided a basis from which the Abkhaz-Adyghe peoples would later emerge. A significant phase in this history was characterized by the North Caucasian cultural-historical community, within which several local groups evolved. Notably, the Kobans maintained close contacts with the steppe tribes, such as the Srubniks and the Kartvelian Colchis. The Western variant of the Koban culture, along with the Kuban metallurgy center, laid the groundwork for the development of the Proto-Abkhazian-Adyghe community. In addition, the Proto-Colchian and Trialetian cultures contributed to the formation of the Kartvelian peoples. The Hattians were associated with the Central Anatolian culture, although limited information is available about them. In contrast, the history of the Hurrians is much better documented. The Hurrians migrated to the Near East from the Armenian Highlands, drawn by Akkadian trade routes. By the end of the 3rd millennium BC, they had begun to settle in southeastern Anatolia and northern Syria. The establishment of the kingdom of Mitanni was largely a response to the need to counter Hittite expansion. Before this, the Hurrians were mostly on the fringes of the interests of the Akkadian kings, the kings of Ur, and the Babylonian rulers of the Gutian and Kassite dynasties. Although Mitanni experienced an influx of Indo-Europeans, it fundamentally remained a Hurrian state until its decline in the middle of the 13th century BC. After the fall of Mitanni, smaller Hurrian states emerged, participating in the Assyrian-Urartian wars. The military campaigns of the Assyrian kings during the Middle Assyrian period were crucial to the decline of Mitanni.

Azerbaijani-Iranian Relations After the Second Karabakh War: Features and Trends

The study presents an analysis of bilateral relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan (RA) and the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) after the Second Karabakh War (SKW), identifying the sources of tension and new trends in their relations. On the one hand, the participation of RA and IRI in large-scale Eurasian transport and logistics projects allows both countries to play a special role in regional politics, and on the other hand, the full-fledged security of the South Caucasus region, including its current position in the system of international relations, largely depends on the level and quality of Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. The purpose of this study is to identify the features and trends of Azerbaijani-Iranian relations after the Second Karabakh War. The author analyzes the reasons for the aggravation of bilateral relations after the SKW in terms of domestic and foreign policy factors. If ethno-political and religious-ideological factors are considered as domestic political reasons, then the nature of the development of relations between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Israel, and Iran and Armenia is assessed as a foreign policy aspect that led to the deterioration of Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. In addition, conducting military exercises by the two countries near the Azerbaijani-Iranian state border, the position of the Iranian authorities against the opening of the Zangezur corridor, and the attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran at the end of January 2023 also contributed to the deepening of the escalation between the RA and the IRI. Along with this, a new positive trend is also emerging in bilateral relations. The volume of trade turnover between the two countries has traditionally decreased during crisis situations; however, despite the fact that Azerbaijani-Iranian political relations are currently experiencing the worst period in their history, the development of relations in the trade and economic spheres is observed, which is a new trend in the interactions between Baku and Tehran. Thus, not only the problems caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus infection in the economies of the two countries, but also the intensification of work on transport projects in the South Caucasus create conditions for maintaining and increasing the level of trade and economic relations.

CSCE’s Peace Efforts in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict during the Czechoslovak Chairmanship in 1992

The year 2022 marked thirty years since the Chairmanship of the Czech and Slovak Federative Republic in the CSCE. The article focuses on one of the main agendas of that period: the First Nagorno-Karabakh War. It aims to assess the success of the CSCE peacemaking activities and initiatives during 1992 and to answer the question of whether individual actors’ efforts led to a peaceful solution, defusing the situation, and improving relations between the parties to the conflict in the South Caucasus region. Finally, the article concludes that, although the CSCE gradually moved from soft actions to peacebuilding activities, it lacked peace-making experience and sufficiently developed and flexible mechanisms compared to other international organizations.

The International Experience of Evaluating the Effectiveness of Public Administration

In each country, the forms of exercising power have their own characteristics with the opportunistic nature. They mainly differ from each other in the scope and scale of the period since the existence or creation of the state. In order for the ideas about the given country to be clarified in a certain way, it is necessary to first of all refer to which chronological part or after which events the process of its establishment began. It is directly aimed at the system of public administration, to exercise its power and to engage more firmly and soundly in its activities. Political processes are initiated in the direction of establishing and strengthening the management system along with the formation of statehood in Armenia, as in many other recently created countries. However, these efforts are sadly unable to reach their destination, given their direct relationship to geopolitical processes, of which the South Caucasus region is also regarded as a constituent part, where, as in many other regions, conflicts like volcanoes that have not yet died out maintain their activity.

Violation of territorial integrity as a tool for waging long-term hybrid warfare (against the backdrop of power games in the South Caucasus region)

This paper seeks to examine the violation of territorial integrity as a stage of hybrid warfare. Grounded in the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism, this study analyses nations’ foreign policy strategies considering both global and domestic factors. Employing primarily qualitative research, this study concentrates on a case study of the South Caucasus region. Against the backdrop of the war which broke out in the early 2022 between Russia and Ukraine, the preservation of territorial integrity emerges as an imperative aspect of national security policy. Despite the longstanding recognition of territorial integrity as a fundamental tenet of international law over the centuries, this war has galvanised all nations with regard to the violation of territorial integrity. The paper delineates the principles of territorial integrity vis-à-vis the national security of the South Caucasus countries, substantiating the assertion that violation of the territorial integrity of the particular countries in this region serves the interests of external actors, either directly or indirectly, and is employed as a strategic tool in the pursuit of protracted hybrid warfare.

The Reality and Prospects of Economic Development of the South Caucasus Region: New Approaches to the Influence of Internal and External Economic Factors

In general, the most favorable position in the Caucasus in terms of territory belongs to the South Caucasus. It is necessary not only to analyze but also to generalize the geoeconomic realities of the South Caucasus region, which increase its importance and affect the system of international economic relations. First of all, it should be noted that the location of water bodies such as the Caspian and Black Seas, surrounded by countries such as Russia, Iran, and Turkey, has turned the South Caucasus region into an East-West and North-South corridor. These factors show that the Caucasus, especially the South Caucasus, occupies an important position in the geo-economic region of the world. In recent years, it is clear that international organizations and the world’s economic powers attach great importance to the region. It is no coincidence that the South Caucasus and Central Asia have led to sustainable development and security from the Mediterranean to China, as well as sustainable development and the export of Caspian oil and gas with the participation of world-renowned companies to the European market.