South Caucasus Region Research Articles

Turkish-Georgian Cooperation in the Struggle for Security in the South Caucasus (The Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform)

With the collapse of the Soviet Union (SU), the South Caucasus region has been in the interest of the world’s great powers. The South Caucasus has been a key to maintaining peace and stability on the continent. Formation of new states in the South Caucasus and Central Asia after the collapse of the SU raised to have relations with the Turkic peoples of Central Asia first in the history of the Republic for Turkey. Foreign policy the Caucasus continues to evolve in its foreign policy strategy. Because in terms of the security of Anatolia, permanent peace and stability in the South Caucasus has a special importance for Turkey. However, there were forces that did not want lasting peace and stability in the region, generally Russia hinders Turkey’s peaceful policies in the region. This article examines Turkey’s role in maintaining security in the South Caucasus, Turkey’s and Russia’s rivalry in the political process in the region, Turkey’s role in restoring security in the region in the Russia-Georgia war, and the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform and other power centers in the region, aimed at the economic, political, military and cultural interests of the challenges and their effects posed by Turkey. Also in the article have been analyzed one of the three South Caucasus states of Georgia, the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, within Georgia’s territorial integrity. Finally, some examples are provided to ensure security in the region. 

Territorial Conflict, Domestic Crisis, and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the South Caucasus. Explaining Variegated EU Responses.

Territorial Conflict, Domestic Crisis, and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the South Caucasus. Explaining Variegated EU Responses.

The Geopolitical Dimension of the Conflicts in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region

Conflicts remain an unresolved problem in the modern world, which is particularly difficult for such a small and developing country like Georgia. The collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the emergence of new sovereign states led not only to an adjustment of a world map but also global geostrategic changes. As a consequence, new centers of power appeared, operating through a variety of strategies to obtain a dominant position in the post-bipolar world. The South Caucasus region turned out to be especially “attractive” in this regard. Two of the conflicts in the abovementioned area arose directly in the territory of Georgia, and these conflicts remain unresolved. Research, analysis and search for settlement mechanisms of the conflicts in Abkhazia and Tskhinvali region are the most important challenges for Georgia, therefore, the purpose of our article is to present the impact of Russia's soft power in the existing conflicts and possible mechanisms for resolving the problem. Keywords: Geopolitics, Abkhazia, Tskhinvali, Conflicts

THE 2020 AUTUMN WAR IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH: COURSE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE STRATEGIC BALANCE OF POWER IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS REGION

ABSTRACT The article aims to analyze the autumn war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which took place in 2020, and explain its impact on the strategic balance of power in the South Caucasus region. This issue is important for regional security and power projection in the South Caucasus. The author focused on 1) The characteristics of the course of the war; 2) The impact of the war on the politics of Armenia and Azerbaijan; 3) The impact of the war on the new division of the sphere of influence between Russia and Turkey. In the course of the research, research techniques and methods characteristic of political science and security science (neoclassical realism paradigm) were used, including critical analysis of the literature on the subject, analysis of policy makers' statements, secondary analysis, and interpretation of quantitative data.

Стратегия Европейского союза в отношении стран Южного Кавказа в рамках программы Восточного партнерства: 20 результатов к 2020 году

Introduction. Due to the destabilization of the situation in the countries of the South Caucasus in 2020, the region is of particular relevance today. At the present stage, it is an object of geopolitical competition for numerous international actors: the Russian Federation, the United States of America, the European Union, the Republic of Turkey. The article examines the EU policy in the process of implementing the Eastern Partnership program as part of the European political strategy. In relation to the South Caucasus region, the interim results of the EU’s activities on the implementation of 20 deliverables for 2020 in relation to the states of the South Caucasus are analyzed. Methods. Comparative analysis makes it possible to give a comprehensive assessment of European policy in the region by identifying priority areas and development prospects by comparing the intermediate results of 20 deliverables for 2020 in the South Caucasus countries within the framework of their bilateral relations with the EU. Analysis. The analysis of the activities of the European Union in relation to the South Caucasus countries is associated with the determination of the prospects for the development of the European strategy in the region. The analysis included tracking the dynamics of the implementation of the 20 deliverables for 2020 in relation to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, as well as options for developing a European strategy in the South Caucasus countries, taking into account the new policy in the context of the Eastern Partnership beyond 2020. Results. As a result of the analysis, the EU’s competitive advantages in the South Caucasus were determined by identifying areas in which the EU’s geopolitical interests intersect with other actors.

Nokta ve Ünlem Savaşı: Yeni Gerçeklik ve Karabağ: Karabağ’a Düşen Cemre

Having always been competition fields thanks to their geopolitical impact potential, the Caucasus and Turkestan have been among the Strategic Focus Centres of Russia since the Tsarist times. While Russia, whose strategic culture has produced expansionist policies for centuries, constantly expanded its political borders, it clashed with the Ottoman Empire and Iran in the Caucasus field of competition. From the second half of the 19th century, the Kazakh regions and independent Turkic states (Khiva, Kokand and Bukhara) were occupied by the Tsarist Russia. The Imperial Age was also a period in which Russia expanded its sphere of influence over the Ottoman Empire through its patronage policies. Having embraced “New Reality” in the regional power projection in the near past, Turkey stayed away from the region for a long time. In addition to some ethnic and cultural problems paused by the Cold War, problems in the partition of the territory came to light again following the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Caucasus geography, from south to north, went back into the period when various national issues were at the forefront and conflicts were experienced. The occupation Armenia carried out with the sponsorship and de facto military support of Russia violated the sovereignty rights of Azerbaijan, caused great social and economic harm, deteriorated the geopolitical impact potential of Azerbaijan and Turkey, and annihilated the possibility of direct connection between Turkey and Turkestan. With Vladimir Putin taking the lead of the Russian Federation, Russia aimed at maintaining regional control and, beyond that, imperial domination, as it had also aimed in the times of the Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union. The appointment of Sergey Lavrov, who is of Armenian origin, to the post of Foreign Minister further increased the tension in the South Caucasus region. Eventually, the process that started with Pashinyan’s statement "Artsakh is Armenia, period" during his visit to Khankendi, and Ilham Aliyev's response "Karabakh is Azerbaijan, and exclamation mark!" resulted in absolute defeat of Armenia and pushed it to the position of a desperate province of Russia. However, there is no place for zero-sum games in real life.
 In this study, the cemre that fell to the Trans-Caucasus on September 27, 2020 with the first martyr, and new realities are discussed. Following the triumph, how are the balances going to be formed? Or if they are not formed, is a period of conflict going to begin for third countries? What sort of climate change is Aliyev's New Reality going to involve in military, political, economic and cultural terms? The article tries to explain the answer to this question by questioning the historical background and strategic culture.

Evaluation of Multi-Model Hindcasts of Overland Precipitation for Georgia

This study evaluates the ability of several Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to simulate rainfall patterns in the South Caucasus region. In total, 8 RCM simulations were assessed against the CRU observational database over different domains, among them two from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Seasonal climatology, annual rainfall cycles and interannual variability in RCM outputs were estimated for 8 homogeneous sub-regions against several observational datasets. Different metrics covering from monthly and seasonal to annual time scales are analyzed over the region of interest. The results confirm the distinct capabilities of climate models in capturing the local features of the climatic conditions of the South Caucasus region. At the same time, the analysis shows significant deviations in individual models depending on the sub-region and season; however, the ensemble mean is in better agreement with observations than individual models. Overall, the analysis presented here demonstrates that, the multi-model ensemble mean adequately simulates rainfall in the South Caucasus and, therefore, it can be used to assess future climate predictions for the region. This work promotes the selection of RCM runs with reasonable performance in the South Caucasus region, from which, for the first time, a high-resolution bias-adjusted climate database can be generated for future risk assessment and impact studies.

The Role of Small States in Integration Projects in the Eurasian Space: The Case of Armenia

The geopolitical interpretation of political processes taking place in the South Caucasus region ignores the possibility of an independent external policy of the smaller states that do not possess considerable military or economic power. Nevertheless, small states build their relations with Russia, the EU and other actors in accordance with the national political discourse that does not often correspond to the realist paradigm of international relations. The case of Armenia exemplifies membership in integration projects often described in academic literature as competing ones. As a consequence, the importance of closer research of internal political processes and factors that influence the decision to join one or another regional project increases. Cooperation with the EU, which has been strongly connected to partners’ commitment to democratic norms, human rights reforms and rule of law, was considered as an important part of their external policy by all the three South Caucasus countries. For the moment, the Eurasian Economic Union does not designate the normative component of cooperation with member countries. In this sense, the Eurasian project has still to define itself.

Multi-Season Reproduction and Pastoralist Production Strategies: New Approaches to Birth Seasonality from the South Caucasus Region

ABSTRACT Current debates about pastoralists’ role in the development of complex forms of political organization in the ancient Near East and the Caucasus revolve around questions about pastoralist production and mobility. This study investigates sheep birth seasonality at Late Bronze Age (1500–1100 b.c.) sites in the Tsaghkahovit Plain, Armenia, using O data from the incremental analysis of tooth enamel and zooarchaeological age at death data. Incorporating age at death data in sampling and analysis, and analyzing larger datasets, makes it possible to use birth seasonality data to examine the organization of pastoralist production, labor, and mobility. Analysis reveals that sheep were born across multiple seasons (80% of the annual cycle) in the Tsaghkahovit Plain and that there are significant differences in the birth seasonality of sheep slaughtered at different ages. The data suggest that herders in the Tsaghkahovit Plain were actively manipulating sheep reproduction by both constraining and expanding it.

CƏNUBİ QAFQAZ: DÖVLƏTLƏR ARASINDA YENİ MÜBARİZƏ MEYDANI

The article analyzes the security problems in the South Caucasus and examines the interests of international actors in the region. The article provides detailed analyse of possible impacts of the world states to potitical issues in the South Caucasus region. Paper underscores the geopolitical symbol of South Caucasus as clashing and conflicting centre of the interests of the big players. Throughout history Caucasus was a playground for many regional and global actors with enduring interests. Each actor tries to capitalize on the geostrategic benefits of the region. Though the South Caucasus occupies a small area on the world map, the scale of the interest in the region is much bigger than its geographical size. Key words: security, South Caucasus, geostrategy, states, political interests, policy

Access to finance for SMEs in post-socialist countries: the Baltic States and the South Caucasus compared

PurposeThis article examines access to finance for SMEs in the Baltic States and the South Caucasus countries following the financial crisis of 2007 and is set within the context of the rule of law for businesses.Design/methodology/approachThe article uses the cross-sectional dataset from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) for 2009 to examine access to finance for SMEs and the court system in the Baltic States and the South Caucasus countries. An ordered probit estimation technique is used to model access to finance and the court system in the Baltic States and the South Caucasus countries. The analysis draws upon institutional theory to explain access to finance for SMEs.FindingsThe results show variations from one Baltic State and South Caucasus country to another in relation to fairness, speed of justice and enforcement of court decisions. The analysis suggests that if access to finance is not an obstacle to business operations and the court system is fair, impartial and uncorrupted, it determines the likelihood of strength in entrepreneurship. Additionally, the results show that, within the Baltic region, businesses experiencing constraints in accessing finance are more likely to have females as their top managers. However, for the South Caucasus region, there was no gender difference.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is based on evidence from the Baltic States and the South Caucasus region. However, the findings are relevant to discussions on the importance of the context of entrepreneurship, and more specifically, the rule of law. The institutional theory provides an explanation for coercive, normative and mimetic institutional isomorphism in the context of access to finance for SMEs. Coercive institutional isomorphism exerts a dependence on access to finance for SMEs. In coercive institutional isomorphism, formal and informal pressures are exerted by external organisations such as governments, legal regulatory authorities, banks and other lending institutions. These formal and informal pressures are imposed to ensure compliance as a dependency for successful access to finance goal.Practical implicationsThis research creates awareness among entrepreneurs, potential entrepreneurs, business practitioners and society that reducing obstacles to access finance and a fair court system improve entrepreneurial venture formation. This has the potential to create employment, advance business development and improve economic development.Originality/valueThis paper makes an original contribution by emphasising the significance of access to finance and a fair court system in encouraging stronger entrepreneurship. The institutional framework provides a definition for coercive institutional isomorphism to show how external forces exert a dependence pressure towards access to finance for SMEs.

Economy and status of Neolithic to Early Bronze age sites in the Southern Caucasus during the 6th‐3rd mill. BCE: The evidence from ground stone tools

In the Southern Caucasus, the evolution of the Neolithic to Bronze age (6th-3rd millenia BCE) economies is often investigated through the prism of adaptation to constrasted landscapes and environments (arid plain, high moutains, subtropical western coasts) and strategies of natural resource exploitation. This overview of the main technological and functional characteristics of ground stone tools from about 20 sites in the Kura Valley (Georgia, Azerbaijan) contributes to the discussion surrounding these questions. After an overview of the evolution of the grinding equipment and stone tool manufacture within a long term perspective, from the Late Neoliothic to the Early Bronze Age, several issues are adressed. The composition of the macrolithic toolkit is a key issue when discussing the importance of agriculture versus pastoralism in the economy of these populations, which evolved in different regional and environmental contexts. Its management also contributes to our understanding of the degree of sedentarity versus mobility of the populations. Finally, we discuss how the technical evolution of the macrolithic toolkit reflects the principal global changes occurring during this long period of time (neolithisation, emergence of metallurgy, and the mining phenomenon) and their cultural meaning. Our initial results underline the significance of some implements as cultural markers, and also contribute to defining the common cultural background and regional specificities within the South Caucasus region.

Legal framework for Azerbaijan – EU cooperation in the energy sector

This article is dedicated to the analysis of legal framework of Azerbaijan – EU relations in the energy sector. The relevance of this topic in recent months is substantiated by change in geopolitical realities of the South Caucasus Region, and discussions on unblocking economic and transport communications that intensified after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. The region is an interlink between Asia and Europe; and Azerbaijan, being an exporter of oil and natural gas, is an important energy partner of the European Union. The flip of political situation in the region in the nearest future would change not only the energy relations between the countries of the region, but also EU and EAEU members-states. The subject of this research is the bilateral agreements, memoranda and joint declarations adopted by the parties in 30 years since reestablishment of the independence of Azerbaijan. Special attention is given to the vectors of cooperation of the parties both pertaining to extraction and transit of energy resources from South Caucasus and Central Asia. The author employs general dialectical, logical, historical, descriptive, formal-legal approach methods of research methods to determine the key trends and characteristics of the legal framework of Azerbaijan – EU relations in the energy sector. The scientific novelty of lies in the analysis of normative legal framework of cooperation in the energy sector beyond the context of general political and economic relations, as well as in outlining the peculiarities of legal framework of such cooperation. The conclusion is made that the cooperation between the two parties in the energy sector leans on the framework rather than binding legal agreement, which allows both parties to develop relations in the energy sector as mutually beneficial projects based on the market principles.

ПРОЕКТ TANAP И ЕГО ГЕОСТРАТЕГИЧЕСКОЕ ЗНАЧЕНИЕ

The article examines the geopolitical and geoeconomic position of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region. Since the signing of the "Treaty of the Century" on September 20, 1994, the Azerbaijani state has once again proved that it is the most influential state in the region, both politically and economically, pursuing a consistent and balanced domestic and foreign policy. The Azerbaijani state has approved large projects in the South Caucasus region, while pursuing a policy of friendship and mutual cooperation with the countries of the region. One such megaproject discussed in the article is the Trans Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP). TANAP, which was implemented in 2011-2020 and is the main segment of the 1,841-kilometer corridor of the South Caucasus gas pipeline, aims to transport Azerbaijani natural gas from the giant Shah Deniz-2 field to European markets through Georgia and Turkey. This project has already been launched and the article discusses its geopolitical implications for our country.

The south Caucasus and NATO’s defence education enhancement programme. The measurement of its effectiveness

The aim of this paper is to review NATO’s Defence Education Enhancement Programme (DEEP) and to bring to the fore the measures of effectiveness regarding its implementation and to determine its shortcomings in the South Caucasus region. At the same time, the paper highlights the efforts of the DEEP teams to influence the partner educators through dialogue and encouragement. The authors refer to the best examples considering the measures of effectiveness. Considering the outcomes achieved by the partner nations, they endeavoured to apply Kirkpatrick model for measuring DEEP’s effectiveness in the South Caucasus countries. The paper discusses how they can more effectively address the challenges in their professional military education (PME) through their tailored DEEPs. The paper analyzes the processes that led by the South Caucasus nations, their national interests and what steps still need to be taken to realize their ambitions to be intellectually interoperable with NATO forces.

Transformative Impacts of Globalization on the Economy of South Caucasus and Central Asia

Research background: The disappointing economic results of the global economic crises, which brought macroeconomic instability, increasing inequality, are often understood as results of globalization. In this article, besides the positive effects, the many unavoidable negative impacts of globalization on the South Caucasus and Central Asia region are discussed. It is shown that responsibility for the economic crisis is not entirely globalization but a combination of the raw material based economy, together with incorrect trade policy. In this article, an alternative view of globalization is offered, including diversification policy challenges. It also explores the main tools of dissemination of globalization, which has created many new opportunities for business in the region. Purpose of the article: The aim is to find out to what extent the countries are involved in international integration, comparative analysis transformative impacts of globalization. Methods: The methods of comparative analysis and systematization of scientific approaches were employed. The research contains an analysis of the region's position in the international trade and investment. Findings & Value added: The region has to concentrate on a new picture of the multipolar world. In the region countries, the processes of globalization were accelerated after the countries became a member of WTO, ADB and integration into the international relations. The findings in general correspond with the trends in emerging markets that the process of globalization is gradually turning into functional mechanism of competitiveness, but there are some differences. The impacts of globalization process are progressively increasing, also there are new unforeseen impacts evolving.

Complicated Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Context of Relations with the EU

Geographically and geopolitically, Armenia and Azerbaijan are located in the South Caucasus region or the Transcaucasia region, as it is often called. The geopolitical situation in this region is very dynamic, characterized by politico-military tensions and the clash of interstate and international interests. The South Caucasus region and the Black Sea and Caspian subregion are of major importance, given the transit of energy resources from the Caspian Basin and Central Asia. Armenian-Azerbaijani relations constitute the main problematic direction in the foreign policy of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. From a legal point of view, these relations are practically absent, as both neighbouring states are neither at peace nor at war, there are no diplomatic, trade and economic relations between them. Nagorno-Karabakh is a dispute over the province’s status as a major source of tension between the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the leadership of the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, in the mediation of which other international actors got involved, such as OSCE, the Minsk group consisting of France, the Russian Federation and the USA. In conclusion, it should be noted that the border of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, about 100 kilometers, is one of the most dangerous militarized areas in the vicinity of Europe.

Нагорный Карабах – 2020: последствия войны и перспективы поствоенного урегулирования

Received 04.03.2021. The war in Nagorno-Karabakh of autumn 2020 which has already been called Second Karabakh or 44-days war led to noticeable changes in the balance of forces and the entire configuration of the system of international relations in South Caucasus (SC) region. At the same time its consequences both for the regional situation and for the policies of the individual countries of the SC remain largely unclear. Thus the acute internal political crisis in Armenia has become protracted2. There is still no unity among the parties concerned regarding the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. Apparently the outcome of the war will also entail noticeable shifts in the policy of extra-regional actors in the South Caucasus whose interests in one or other extent are affected by the conflict. However, the prospects for these changes are also still unclear. These and other problems related to the war in Karabakh and its consequences were the subject of discussion took place at the Institute of Oriental Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in January 14, 2021. The discussion was attended by A.B. Krylov, V.M. Mukhanov, S.A. Pritchin, A.Yu. Skakov (IMEMO RAS); S.M. Markedonov, A.A. Yarlykapov (MGIMO of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs).

Transformative impacts of globalization on the economy of South Caucasus and Central Asia1

Research background: The disappointing economic results of the global economic crises, which brought macroeconomic instability, increasing inequality, are often understood as results of globalization. In this article, besides the positive effects, the many unavoidable negative impacts of globalization on the South Caucasus and Central Asia region are discussed. It is shown that responsibility for the economic crisis is not entirely globalization but a combination of the raw material based economy, together with incorrect trade policy. In this article, an alternative view of globalization is offered, including diversification policy challenges. It also explores the main tools of dissemination of globalization, which has created many new opportunities for business in the region. Purpose of the article: The aim is to find out to what extent the countries are involved in international integration, comparative analysis transformative impacts of globalization. Methods: The methods of comparative analysis and systematization of scientific approaches were employed. The research contains an analysis of the region’s position in the international trade and investment. Findings & Value added: The region has to concentrate on a new picture of the multipolar world. In the region countries, the processes of globalization were accelerated after the countries became a member of WTO, ADB and integration into the international relations. The findings in general correspond with the trends in emerging markets that the process of globalization is gradually turning into functional mechanism of competitiveness, but there are some differences. The impacts of globalization process are progressively increasing, also there are new unforeseen impacts evolving.

The first unified inventory of non-native fishes of the South Caucasian countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

The South Caucasus (SC) region is recognized for its high biological diversity and various endemic animal taxa. The area has experienced many fish introductions over the years, but the overall information about non-native fishes in the three SC countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia did not exist. Although these three countries belong to the Kura River drainage, Caspian Sea basin (only the western half of Georgia drains into the Black Sea), the legislative framework for each country regarding introduction of non-native fish species and their treatment is different and poorly developed. The goal of the present study was to make an initial inventory of non-native fish species in the three SC countries, and summarize the existing knowledge as a basis for future risk assessment models and formulation of regional management policies. Here, we present a unified list of 27 non-native species recorded in the wild in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Among these 27 species, eight were translocated from the Black Sea basin to the Caspian Sea basin. Out of these 27 non-native fishes, 15 species have become established (three of them being considered invasive) and six fish species could not survive in the wild.