South Asian High Research Articles

Different mechanisms for daytime, nighttime, and compound heatwaves in southern China

Heatwaves often cause immense stress on human society and the natural environment. While heatwaves can be classified into daytime, nighttime, and compound daytime-nighttime types, the specific processes associated with different heatwave types remain poorly understood. In this paper, we identify different mechanisms operating in compound (i.e., extreme heat during both day and night) and independent daytime and nighttime heatwaves in southern China. Compound heatwaves generally exhibit stronger temperature increases than either daytime or nighttime types. Daytime heatwaves are accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation under a clear sky with reduced cloud cover and moisture. Nighttime heatwaves are characterized by more cloudy and moist conditions, and increased downward longwave radiation at the surface at night. A combination of these conditions for daytime and nighttime heatwaves prevail during compound heatwaves. All three types of heatwaves are associated with strengthening and eastward extension of the South Asian high (SAH) in the upper troposphere, and strengthening and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the lower and middle troposphere. Further examinations suggest that compound heatwaves are accompanied by the strongest intensification of SAH and WNPSH. Compared with daytime heatwaves, nighttime events are associated with a stronger amplitude of SAH and WNPSH, and both highs tend to extend more southward when nighttime heatwaves occur. This southward extension induces an anomalous lower-level anticyclone that drives a southwesterly wind anomaly over southeastern China. This circulation feature transports warmer and more humid air towards southern China. The enhanced concentration of water vapor leads to increased absorption of outgoing longwave radiation, and increased re-emission of longwave radiation to the surface, thus resulting in surface warming at night.

The opposite response of the South Asian high to increasing CO2 at different heights

AbstractBased on the multimodel ensemble of 22 models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the present manuscript found that in response to increasing CO2, the South Asian high (SAH) displays the opposite response over its southern region in the upper troposphere: an anticyclonic response at 100 hPa and a weak (insignificant) cyclonic response at 200 hPa. This opposite response is a product of tropospheric warming. In response to increasing CO2, the troposphere warms, with the potential temperatures peaking at 150–200 hPa over the northern Indian Ocean (IO). With transportation by local vertical motion (ascendance over the northeastern IO and descendance over the northwestern IO), various changes in vertical temperature advection with height form at 100 and 200 hPa. Finally, the changes contribute to a decrease in the ω response with pressures at 100 hPa but an increase in the ω response with pressures at 200 hPa over the northwestern IO. Over the northwestern IO, ω change is inversely related to pressure. At 100 hPa, the sign of ω changes with pressure, which yields distinct vorticity forcing over the northeastern and northwestern IO. This causes an anticyclonic response, which may generate zonal vorticity advection and balance the vorticity forcing. At 200 hPa, the contribution is roughly opposite to that at 100 hPa. In addition, although diabatic heating contributes to the vertical profile of ω, it yields the same‐sign vorticity response at 100 and 200 hPa.

Comparative analyses of the heavy rainfall associated with landfalling tropical cyclones SOULIK (1307) and MARIA (1808) with similar routes

Different rainfall evolutions associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) SOULIK (1307) and MARIA (1808) are analyzed before and after they made landfalls in Fujian province based on reanalysis data of the ERA5 and CMORPH data. The two TCs shared similar tracks, motion speed as well as landing points, but showed different asymmetric features of rainfall intensities and locations relative to routes. The results primarily exhibited the discrepancy of the inland rainfall distributions between the two TCs and the related influence factors. The constant torrential rain over land with the maximum on the left of the storm track associated with SOULIK was attributed to favorable dynamical conditions. The northeasterly outflow of SOULIK was reinforced by the easterly wave in upper-level, which induced strong divergence along with the distinct ascending motions by suction effect. The strong ambient VWS broke the warm core structure of SOULIK, which pointed to south-southwest direction relevant to the strong northeasterly wind at 200 hPa, and further caused a more asymmetric rainfall pattern on the left of TC track. Besides, a cold intrusion was observed south of SOULIK in mid-levels, enhancing convective instability coincident with the alternating circumstance of cold and warm advections from the lower layer to the upper layer over south of SOULIK, which further intensify the precipitation on the left of TC track. Simultaneously, the meridional moisture convergence owing to the enhanced southerly wind at lower level played a key role in the maintenance of severe rainfall south of SOULIK. Comparatively, the 48-h accumulated rainfall over land associated with MARIA was much weaker than that associated with SOULIK, and the maximum is on the northern side. The strong convergence in the lower level induced by the predominant easterly winds interacting with coastal terrains, as well as the distinct divergence coincident with the upper level jet in the southern part of the South Asia High (SAH), provide favorable dynamical conditions for the maximum rainfall north of MARIA. Simultaneously, the strong westerlies over the South China Sea, together with the eastern cyclonic system over the Northwest Pacific, create favorable moisture conditions for the rainfall on the northern side of MARIA. Results presented in this study provides an improved predictive understanding of physical mechanism dictating storm rainfall evolution from landfalling TCs, especially those with similar tracks

Association between regional summer monsoon onset in South Asia and Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing

By using multiple data sources and numerical simulation results from the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of CAM4.0 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 4), we investigated the effect of thermal forcing over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the onset of the summer monsoon in the Arabian Sea (AS) and India. Results indicate that the spatial distribution of diabatic heating over the TP in May is a southeastern–northwestern inverse pattern. This diabatic heating shows a robust negative relationship with the onset date of the summer monsoon over the AS and India. A positive diabatic heating seesaw pattern can enhance the ascending (descending) motion over the southeastern (northwestern) TP, corresponding to above (below) normal in- situ precipitation. Temperature budget diagnosis reveals that the adiabatic heating due to anomalous vertical motion and relevant horizontal advection of temperature in the mid-upper troposphere are responsible for the warming over the TP. Consequently, the reversal of the meridional temperature gradient from winter to summer over South Asian regions occurs earlier than the climate-mean state. Furthermore, the diabatic heating over the TP induces an enhanced and westward-extended South Asian High (SAH), which together with the easterly along the southern flank of the SAH superimpose on the low-level westerly flow over the AS and India, results in intensive upper-level divergence-pumping and upward motion. This anomalous circulation configuration in lower and upper levels further facilitates an earlier onset of the summer monsoon in AS and India. These findings are corroborated in the sensitivity runs based on CAM4.0.

Genesis of Upper-Tropospheric Anticyclones over the Asian–Western Pacific Sector from Tropical–Extratropical Interaction Perspective

Abstract Upper-tropospheric anticyclones (UTACs) emerge throughout the seasons with changing location and intensity. Here, the formation mechanisms of these UTACs, especially in the Asian–Australian–western Pacific sector, were investigated based on the diagnosis of the vorticity equation as well as the contribution of the planetary waves. During June–July–August (JJA), a vigorous UTAC corresponding to the South Asian high (SAH) forms over South Asia, to the south of the Tibetan Plateau, where intense heating associated with the Asian summer monsoon rainfall and the resultant baroclinic Rossby response are the important physical processes. Meanwhile, the produced anticyclonic vorticity is farther transported by the interhemispheric divergent wind toward the Southern Hemisphere (SH), creating the SH UTAC centered over the Maritime Continent. During December–January–February (DJF), two zonally elongated UTACs reside on each side of the equator (∼10° poleward), mainly over the Maritime Continent–western Pacific sector. Upon a closer look at the NH winter, we observed that the northern parts of UTAC cannot be explained by this vorticity balance alone. Diagnosis of the wave activity flux indicated that planetary waves emanating from the cold Eurasian continent converges around the northern parts of the UTAC with its peak in the NH winter, which weakens the subtropical jet, thus generating UTAC. Configuration of the SH summer (DJF) UTAC bears resemblance with that of SAH. These results suggest that the creation of anticyclonic vorticity and its interhemispheric transportation as well as the propagation of planetary wave are the selectively important agents for the genesis of seasonally varying UTACs. Significance Statement Recent studies have provided evidence that the South Asian high (formerly Tibetan high) is not a purely thermally driven system only maintained over the elevated Tibetan Plateau. This study aims to understand the physical processes responsible for the genesis of the upper-tropospheric anticyclone, especially in the Asian–Australian–western Pacific sector, throughout the season. During summer in the Northern Hemisphere, deep heating caused by South Asian monsoon rainfall plays a crucial role in the genesis of the South Asian high. The wintertime anticyclone emerging over the subtropical western North Pacific is caused via remote influences anchored with tropical convection and the cold Eurasian continent in which atmospheric teleconnections are important. These findings provide new avenues for research on tropical–extratropical interactions with respect to the formation and variability of important climate phenomena.

High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling and Projection of Heatwave Events over the Yangtze River Basin

Heatwave events (HWEs) have strong impacts on human health, ecosystems, and sustainable social development. Using a gridded observation dataset and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), this study analyzed the characteristics of HWEs over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in eastern China during the historical period and projected the changes in HWEs over the YRB in the future. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax), long-lived (≥6 days) HWEs, and total (≥3 days) HWEs in the YRB all showed an obvious upward trend from 1981 to 2018, while the increase in short-lived (≥3 days and <6 days) HWEs was relatively moderate overall. The RCM of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can simulate the characteristics of Tmax and HWEs in the historical period very well, and the projection results showed that Tmax, total HWEs, and long-lived HWEs will all increase obviously in both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Short-lived HWEs will also increase rapidly under SSP585, but they will rise slowly overall under SSP245. The changes in HWEs had distinct regional differences, and the intensity and coverage area of HWEs were greater under SSP585 overall. In the future, the increase in HWEs over the YRB region is likely to be associated with the enhancement of the western-Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South-Asian high (SAH), and this enhancement was also greater under SSP585. The results from the high-resolution simulation of the RCM can provide an important reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.

Relationship between summer extreme precipitation anomaly in Central Asia and surface sensible heat variation on the Central-Eastern Tibetan Plateau

In the context of global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events have increased, especially in Central Asia (CA). In this study, we investigate the characteristics of summer extreme precipitation (SEP) in CA and its relationship with the surface sensible heat (SSH) variation over the central–eastern Tibetan Plateau (CETP). The results suggest that the distribution of SEP in CA is extremely uneven, and the SEP thresholds range from 2 to 32 mm/day, and 80% of them are concentrated in 4–10 mm/day. Both the total amount of SEP and the number of SEP days show significant increasing trends, with the climatic tendencies of 4.4 mm/decade and 0.4 day/decade, respectively. The SSH anomalies over the CETP can affect the SEP and summer drought in CA by regulating the strength of South Asia High (SAH) and the subtropical jet over CA. The strong SSH anomalies over the CETP in late spring (April–May) can be transmitted from the lower to the upper layers through the continuous heating to the atmosphere and lead to the anomalously strong subtropical high over northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, the anomalously weak subtropical westerly jet over CA and the anomalously strong SAH in summer. At the same time, the Ural ridge strengthens, the CA trough weakens, and the northern CA is controlled by an anomaly of warm high-pressure ridge. Therefore, the anomaly of water vapor convergence in northern CA weakens. The SEP there will be abnormally less, and the summer drought intensifies. When the SSH over CETP is anomalously weak in late spring, the key circulations are just the opposite. Furthermore, the anomalous water vapor from the Arctic, North Atlantic and western Pacific converges in northern CA and northern Xinjiang, China, which is conducive to the generation of widespread extreme precipitation and the alleviation of summer drought in these regions.

Modulation of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Interdecadal Variation of South Asian High and Somali Jet in Summer

As two important components of the Asian summer monsoon system, the intensities of South Asian High (SAH) and Somali jet (SMJ) in summer exhibit both interannual and decadal variabilities. On the interdecadal timescale, the temporal evolution of the SAH intensity is in phase with that of the SMJ intensity. By comparison, we find that both of them evolve synchronously with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with AMO cold/warm phases corresponding to the weakening/strengthening of SAH and SMJ. Further diagnoses indicate that the interdecadal variabilities of the SAH and SMJ intensities in summer may be modulated by the AMO phase. Mechanistically, this modulation appears to be achieved via an interdecadal Silk Road pattern (SRP)-like wave train along the Asian westerly jet and Matsuno–Gill tropical atmospheric response. The cold SST anomaly over extratropical North Atlantic related to the AMO firstly induces an anomalous high over Western Europe and produces a well-organized wave train between 30°N and 60°N. The anomalous Iranian Plateau low along with the wave train path leads to a weakened SAH. Besides, the AMO-related cold SST anomalies over tropical North Atlantic cool the tropical tropospheric atmosphere through the moist adjustment process and produce a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response covering the tropical Indian Ocean. Due to the Matsuno–Gill response, subsidence motion anomalies over the central tropical Indian Ocean corresponding to a result in increased lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence are excited over the tropical Indian Ocean. Finally, the tropical Indian Ocean divergence in the lower troposphere leads to the weakened summer SMJ, and the tropical Indian Ocean convergence in the upper troposphere results in the decrease and northward displacement of SAH in summer.

Typical Circulation Patterns and Associated Mechanisms for Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley during 1981\u20132020

Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) during 1981–2020 are classified into three types (type-A, type-B and type-C) according to pattern correlation. The characteristics of the synoptic systems for the PHREs and their possible development mechanisms are investigated. The anomalous cyclonic disturbance over the southern part of the YHRV during type-A events is primarily maintained and intensified by the propagation of Rossby wave energy originating from the northeast Atlantic in the mid–upper troposphere and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets from the western Pacific in the mid–lower troposphere. The zonal propagation of Rossby wave packets and the northward propagation of Rossby wave packets during type-B events are more coherent than those for type-A events, which induces eastward propagation of stronger anomaly centers of geopotential height from the northeast Atlantic Ocean to the YHRV and a meridional anomaly in geopotential height over the Asian continent. Type-C events have “two ridges and one trough” in the high latitudes of the Eurasian continent, but the anomalous intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the trough of the YHRV region are weaker than those for type-A and type-B events. The composite synoptic circulation of four PHREs in 2020 is basically consistent with that of the corresponding PHRE type. The location of the South Asian high (SAH) in three of the PHREs in 2020 moves eastward as in the composite of the three types, but the position of the WPSH of the four PHREs is clearly westward and northward. Two water vapor conveyor belts and two cold air conveyor belts are tracked during the four PHREs in 2020, but the water vapor path from the western Pacific is not seen, which may be caused by the westward extension of the WPSH.

Occurrence of heatwave in Korea by the displacement of South Asian high

The South Asian high (SAH) index was defined using the 200 hPa geopotential height for 1973–2019. Of the movements of the SAH center in the north–south, east–west, northwest-southeast, and southwest-northeast directions, the movements in the northwest-southeast direction showed the highest positive correlation with heatwave days (HWDs) in South Korea. Thirteen years with the highest values in the northwestward shift of the SAH (positive SAH years) and 13 years with the highest values in the southeastward shift of the SAH (negative SAH years) were selected from a time series of SAH indices from which the linear trend was removed, and the differences between these two groups were analyzed. An analysis of vertical meridional circulation averaged along 120°–130° E showed that in the latitude zones containing Korea, anomalous downward flows with anomalous high pressures formed in the entire troposphere and coincided with a positive anomaly of air temperature and specific humidity. An analysis of stream flows and geopotential heights showed that in the positive SAH years, anomalous anticyclones developed in Korea, the North Pacific, North America, Western Europe, and the Iranian Plateau. These anticyclones had the wavenumber-5 pattern and showed more distinct barotropic vertical structures at higher altitudes, which resembled the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The maintenance of CGT depends on the interaction between the CGT circulation and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which has a major influence on the mid-latitude atmosphere. Strengthening of the ISM results in the formation of upper-level anomalous anticyclones in the northwestern Iranian Plateau and produces continuous downstream cells along the waveguide due to the Rossby wave dispersion. When diabatic heating by Indian summer monsoon precipitation is strengthened, the SAH is strengthened to the northwest of India, and a positive CGT pattern is formed. As a result, anomalous anticyclones formed in all layers of the Korean troposphere, resulting in heatwaves, tropical nights, and droughts exacerbated in South Korea.

Is There Interdecadal Variation in the South Asian High?

AbstractThe decadal intensification of the South Asian high (SAH) after the late 1970s, which is determined based on the geopotential height (H), is suspicious due to the lifting effect upon H caused by global warming. The updated reanalysis datasets ERA5 and JRA-55 indicate that the anticyclone in the upper troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau is relatively weak during 1980–2018 compared to that during 1950–79. This decadal weakening of the SAH after 1979 can also be observed in the radiosonde observation data. Correspondingly, the SAH defined by eddy geopotential height (H′) reflects a consistent decadal weakening variation. The decadal weakening of SAH detected from H′ after the late 1970s matches with a decadal southward shift of the East Asian westerly jet, causing ascending motions over the Yangtze River valley and descending motions over North China. Moreover, the decadal weakening and westward shift of the SAH is accompanied with positive relative vorticity anomalies over the northwest Pacific in the upper troposphere, which implies a declining and eastward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and a weakened East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Hence, the decadal weakening of the SAH after the late 1970s may contribute to the Yangtze River flooding/North China drought pattern through its connection with other circulation systems of EASM.

Two Distinct Types of 10-30-day Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over the Yangtze River Valley

AbstractLarge-scale circulation anomalies associated with 10-30-day filtered persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYV) in boreal summer for the period of 1961-2017 were investigated. Two distinct types of PHREs were identified based on configurations of anomalies in western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South Asian High (SAH) during the peak wet phase. One type named as PSAH is characterized by eastward extension of the SAH while the other named as NSAH is featured by westward retreat of the SAH, and they both exhibit westward extension of the WPSH. Both types of PHREs are dominated by Mei-yu frontal systems. The lower-level circulation anomalies play a crucial role in initiating rainfall but through different processes. Prior to rainfall occurrence, a strong anticyclonic circulation anomaly is over the western North Pacific (WNP) for the PSAH events and the related southwesterly wind anomaly prevails over the south-eastern China, which advects moisture into the MLYV, moistens the boundary layer, and induces atmospheric convective instability. For the NSAH events, the WNP anticyclonic circulation is weak while a strong northerly wind is observed north of the MLYV. It brings cold air mass southward, favoring initiating frontal rainfall over the MLYV. The formation of upper-level circulation anomalies over the MLYV is primarily due to the shift of anomalous circulations from mid-high latitudes. After the rainfall generation, the precipitation would influence the lower- and upper-level circulation anomalies.

Representation of Rossby wave propagation and its effect on the teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon and extratropical rainfall in the Met Office Unified Model

Compared with Global Atmosphere 6 (GA6) of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM), the dry bias over the Indian monsoon region in Global Atmosphere 7 (GA7) is significantly reduced. However, the physical processes controlling how this reduced dry bias in India influences rainfall teleconnections in the extratropics remain unclear. Thus, in this study, we use Rossby wave tracing in a horizontally nonuniform background flow to investigate how the improved simulation of monsoon rainfall in GA7 compared with GA6 affects extratropical rainfall teleconnections. We find that wave rays emanating from the upper troposphere in the Indian monsoon region first propagate westward, then divide into the Northern Hemisphere (NH) subtropical westerlies over Asia and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical westerlies. The wave ray trajectories in GA7 in years of strong Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) are closer to observations than those in GA6. We also find that the upper tropospheric meridional winds over the South Asian monsoon region and western Tibetan Plateau are much better simulated in GA7 than in GA6 owning to the improvement of ISMR and South Asian High (SAH), which leads to a more realistic simulation of the wave rays in GA7. The better simulated circulation teleconnections in GA7 then modulate the vertical motion and moisture transport, and hence affect extratropical rainfall anomalies in the NH and SH. This paper provides new insights for the assessment of tropical–extratropical teleconnections in models.

Evaluating boreal summer circulation patterns of CMIP6 climate models over the Asian region

Our confidence in future climate projection depends on the ability of climate models to simulate the current climate, and model performance in simulating atmospheric circulation affects its ability of simulating extreme events. In this study, the self-organizing map (SOM) method is used to evaluate the frequency, persistence, and transition characteristics of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for different ensembles of daily 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) in Asia, and then all ensembles are ranked according to a comprehensive ranking metric (MR). Our results show that the SOM method is a powerful tool for assessing the daily-scale circulation simulation skills in Asia, and the results will not be significantly affected by different map sizes. Positive associations between each two of the performance in frequency, persistence and transition were found, indicating that a good ensemble of simulation for one metric is good for the others. The r10i1p1f1 ensemble of CanESM5 best simulates Z500 in Asia comprehensively, and it is also the best of simulating frequency characteristics. The MR simulation of the highest 10 ensembles for the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and the South Asia High (SAH) are far better than those of the lowest 10. Such differences may lead to errors in the simulation of extreme events. This study will help future studies in the choice of ensembles with better circulation simulation skills to improve the credibility of their conclusions.

The Evolution Characteristics of Daily-Scale Silk Road Pattern and Its Relationship with Summer Temperature in the Yangtze River Valley

By employing multi-reanalysis daily datasets and station data, this study focuses on the evolution characteristics of the daily-scale Silk Road pattern (SRP) and its effect on summer temperatures in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The results manifest that the evolution characteristics of positive- and negative-phase SRP (referred to SRP+ and SRP−) exhibit marked distinctions. The anomaly centers of SRP+ over West Central Asia (WCA) and Mongolia emerge firstly, vanishing simultaneously one week after peak date; however, the Far East (FE) anomaly centers can persist for a longer period. The SRP− starts with the WCA and FE centers, with a rapid decline in the strength of the WCA center and preservation of other anomaly centers after its peak. In the vertical direction, daily-scale SRP mainly concentrates in the mid-to-upper troposphere. Baroclinicity accounts for its early development and barotropic instability process favors the maintenance. Moreover, the SRP+ (SRP−) is inextricably linked to heat wave (cool summer) processes in the YRV. Concretely, before the onset of SRP+ events, an anomalous anticyclone and significant negative vorticities over East Asia related to SRP+ favor the zonal advance between the South Asia high (SAH) and western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), inducing local descents over YRV area. The sinking adiabatic warming and clear-sky radiation warming can be considered as the possible causes for the YRV heat waves. The adiabatic cooling with the local ascents leads to more total cloud cover (positive precipitation anomalies) and less solar radiation incident to surface of the YRV, inducing the cool summer process during SRP−.

Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting

The intensity variation of the South Asian high (SAH) plays an important role in the formation and extinction of many kinds of mesoscale systems, including tropical cyclones, southwest vortices in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, and the precipitation in the whole Asia Europe region, and the SAH has a vortex symmetrical structure; its dynamic field also has the symmetry form. Not enough previous studies focus on the variation of SAH daily intensity. The purpose of this study is to establish a day-to-day prediction model of the SAH intensity, which can accurately predict not only the interannual variation but also the day-to-day variation of the SAH. Focusing on the summer period when the SAH is the strongest, this paper selects the geopotential height data between 1948 and 2020 from NCEP to construct the SAH intensity datasets. Compared with the classical deep learning methods of various kinds of efficient time series prediction model, we ultimately combine the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method, which has the ability to deal with the nonlinear and unstable single system, with the Permutation Entropy (PE) method, which can extract the SAH intensity feature of IMF decomposed by CEEMDAN, and the Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network (ConvGRU) model is used to train, test, and predict the intensity of the SAH. The prediction results show that the combination of CEEMDAN and ConvGRU can have a higher accuracy and more stable prediction ability than the traditional deep learning model. After removing the redundant features in the time series, the prediction accuracy of the SAH intensity is higher than that of the classical model, which proves that the method has good applicability for the prediction of nonlinear systems in the atmosphere.

Potential vorticity analysis of quasi-biweekly rainfall events over the Yangtze Basin in summer 2014

A series of heavy rainfall events occurred over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) in summer 2014, which were modulated by the 10–20-day quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). Thus, the strongest QBWO cycle for the period 10–24 July was used as a representative case to reveal the dynamical mechanism for the QBWO of the YRV rainfall from the potential vorticity (PV) perspective and based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data. The quasi-biweekly YRV rainfall was found to depend closely on the QBWO of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high (SAH), with the SAH configuration modified by the southward-intruding midlatitude high PV stream along with southwestward-advected high PV, altering the divergent condition over the YRV. Quantitative diagnoses for the anomalous vertical motion demonstrated that, in the wet phase of the QBWO cycle, the upper-tropospheric southward-intruding high PV stream acted as a positive PV advection, while negative PV advection was generated due to the lower-tropospheric southerlies, thereby forming a positive vertical gradient of horizontal PV advection to induce evident isentropic-displacement ascending motion. On the other hand, the southward-intruding high PV stream extended downward to the middle troposphere, causing the isentropic surfaces to become more sloping, thus producing a strong isentropic-gliding ascending component. Subsequently, the stronger diabatic heating-related ascending motion was induced to generate positive rainfall anomalies over the YRV. The opposite situation arose in the dry phase, with weak descending motion in magnitude.摘要2014年夏季长江流域(YRV)发生的多次阶段性强降水事件显著地受10–20天准双周振荡所调控. 代表性振荡过程与合成分析表明, 准双周湿位相主要取决于对流层高层南侵的高位势涡度(PV)与低纬度向西南平流的高PV导致南亚高压形态改变而产生的YRV高空辐散. 高空向南的正PV平流与低层南风输送的负PV平流在YRV上空形成正的PV平流垂直梯度, 激发出等熵面位移的上升运动分量; 高空的高PV同时向中低层伸展, 导致等熵面坡度增大从而增强气块沿等熵面上滑的上升运动分量, 由此产生更强的非绝热有关的上升运动分量. 干位相情况则相反.

Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau-tropical Indian Ocean thermal contrast and the South Asian summer monsoon

The impact of land-sea thermal contrast on the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) was investigated by calculating the atmospheric heat sources (AHS) and baroclinic component with ERA5 data for the period 1979–2019. Using diagnostic and statistical methods, it was found that the thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) affects the South Asian monsoon circulation through the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere. The seasonal changes of the AHS of the TP and TIO are reversed. In summer, the TP is the strongest at the same latitude whereas the TIO is the weakest, and the thermal contrast is the most obvious. The heat sources of the TP and TIO are located on the north and south side of the strong baroclinic area of the SASM region, respectively, and both of which are dominated by deep convective heating in the upper troposphere. The TP-TIO regional meridional thermal contrast index (QI) based on the AHS, and the SASM index (MI) based on baroclinicity were found to be strongly positively correlated. In years of abnormally high QI, the thermal contrast between the TP and TIO is strong in summer, which warms the upper troposphere over Eurasia and cools it over the TIO. The stronger temperature gradient enhances the baroclinicity in the troposphere, which results in a strengthening of the low-level westerly airflow and the upper-level easterly airflow. The anomalous winds strengthen the South Asian high (SAH), with the warmer center in the upper troposphere, and the enhanced Walker circulation over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Finally, the anomalous circulation leads to much more precipitation over the SASM region. The influence of abnormally low QI is almost the opposite.

Seasonal evolution differences of east Asian summer monsoon precipitation between Bølling-Allerød and younger Dryas periods

The rapid warming trend during the last deglaciation triggered significant global climate instabilities due to a complex non-linear response of the climate system to the gradual increase in insolation over the northern hemisphere. Although climate impacts can be detected globally, major regional imprints such as seasonal evolution and changes of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) during the last deglaciation are still poorly constrained due to a lack of comprehensive proxy data. In this study, we compare how the extreme climate shifts are linked to changes in EASM precipitation over China between the unusually warm Bolling-Allerod (BA) interstadial and the following strong cooling of the Younger Dryas (YD) stadial. Our analysis is based on the transient atmosphere-ocean simulations of TraCE-21ka, in addition to new results from high-resolution simulations of the CESM1 model for the BA and YD time slices. We find that the earlier onset and stronger intensity of the EASM in the BA interstadial lead to more precipitation in early summer (May–June) but drier conditions during mid-summer (July–August) over Southern China compared to a stadial climate during the YD episode. For Northern China, we find the opposite response. The insolation change in spring and the forced response of the atmospheric system are thought to be responsible for these differences. Relative to the YD episode, the hemispheric temperature gradient during the BA period is enhanced due to the asymmetric warming between the two hemispheres, leading to an intensified northward equatorial cross flow. Combined with a stronger sensible heating of the Tibetan Plateau in spring and the related earlier northward shift of the westerly jet, the early onset of the EASM is triggered. The latent heat release, which is accompanied by the onset of the EASM and the sudden increasing precipitation over Southern China in early summer, contributes to the westward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and eastward movement of the South Asia High (SAH) in mid-summer. Under the above conditions, Southern China experiences a hot and dry climate, while Northern China receives more precipitation. Additionally, the La Nina-like pattern of the equatorial Pacific also partly contributes to the strong EASM in the warm period by influencing the WPSH location and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern.

Diversity of the Coupling Wheels in the East Asian Summer Monsoon on the Interannual Time Scale: Challenge of Summer Rainfall Forecasting in China

Two types of three-dimensional circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) act as the coupling wheels determining the seasonal rainfall anomalies in China during 1979–2015. The first coupling mode features the interaction between the Mongolian cyclone over North Asia and the South Asian high (SAH) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau at 200 hPa. The second mode presents the coupling between the anomalous low-level western Pacific anticyclone and upper-level SAH via the meridional flow over Southeast Asia. These two modes are responsible for the summer rainfall anomalies over China in 24 and 7 out of 37 years, respectively. However, the dominant SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic Ocean fail to account for the first coupling wheel’s interannual variability, illustrating the challenges in forecasting summer rainfall over China.