Abstract
Our confidence in future climate projection depends on the ability of climate models to simulate the current climate, and model performance in simulating atmospheric circulation affects its ability of simulating extreme events. In this study, the self-organizing map (SOM) method is used to evaluate the frequency, persistence, and transition characteristics of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for different ensembles of daily 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) in Asia, and then all ensembles are ranked according to a comprehensive ranking metric (MR). Our results show that the SOM method is a powerful tool for assessing the daily-scale circulation simulation skills in Asia, and the results will not be significantly affected by different map sizes. Positive associations between each two of the performance in frequency, persistence and transition were found, indicating that a good ensemble of simulation for one metric is good for the others. The r10i1p1f1 ensemble of CanESM5 best simulates Z500 in Asia comprehensively, and it is also the best of simulating frequency characteristics. The MR simulation of the highest 10 ensembles for the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) and the South Asia High (SAH) are far better than those of the lowest 10. Such differences may lead to errors in the simulation of extreme events. This study will help future studies in the choice of ensembles with better circulation simulation skills to improve the credibility of their conclusions.
Highlights
The general circulation of the atmosphere is a key factor affecting climate variation, whether on global or regional scales, because it drives the circulation of energy and water vapor (Maidens et al 2021; Zhao C. et al 2019)
The Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was initiated by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), with the purpose of answering new scientific questions facing the field of climate change and providing data support to achieve the scientific goals established by the WCRP ‘Grand Challenge’ plan
The Asian summer climate is significantly affected by the large-scale atmospheric circulation
Summary
The general circulation of the atmosphere is a key factor affecting climate variation, whether on global or regional scales, because it drives the circulation of energy and water vapor (Maidens et al 2021; Zhao C. et al 2019). With the intensification of global warming, various extreme events have occurred frequently and have had a great impact on society and the environment (Gu et al 2016; Kong et al 2020; Sales et al 2018) Some extreme events, such as extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation, are affected by the atmospheric general circulation (Boschat et al 2014; Fischer et al 2010; Gibson et al 2017; Liu et al 2015; Loikith et al 2019; Lu et al 2020; Ohba et al 2020). The CMIP6 includes about 112 climate models from 33 institutions around the world participating in 23 sub-programs These data will support the 5 to 10 years of global climate research (Eyring et al 2016).
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