Solar Storms Research Articles

Predicting the Effects of Solar Storms on the Ionosphere Based on a Comparison of Real-Time Solar Wind Data with the Best-Fitting Historical Storm Event

This study presents a new modeling approach that aims for long time predictions (more than 12 h) of ionospheric disturbances driven by solar storm events. The proposed model shall run in an operational framework to deliver fast and precise localized warnings for these disturbances in the future. The solar wind data driven approach uses a data base of historical solar storm impacts covering two solar cycles to reconstruct future events and resulting ionospheric disturbances. The basic components of the model are presented and discussed in this study, and the strengths of the reconstruction based on historical events are presented by showing the good correlations for predicted and observed geomagnetic activity. Initial results on the ionospheric response are discussed for all historical events using global total electron content (GTEC) and in more detail using total electron content (TEC) maps for two specific case studies (including the St. Patrick’s Day geomagnetic storm during the 17 March 2015). Average root mean square error (RMSE) values of 3.90 and 5.21 TECU are calculated for these cases confirming good results for the current configuration of the model. Possible future improvements of the individual model parts, as well as the planned extensions and applications are discussed in detail.

The extreme solar and geomagnetic storms on 1940 March 20–25

ABSTRACT In late 1940 March, at least five significant solar flares were reported. They likely launched interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), and were associated with one of the largest storm sudden commencements (SSCs) since 1868, resulting in space weather hazards that would have significant societal impacts should it occur today. The initial solar activity is associated with a solar proton event. Afterwards, another flare was reported in the eastern solar quadrant (N12 E37-38) at 11:30–12:30 ut on March 23, with significant magnetic crochets (up to ≈ |80| nT at Eskdalemuir) during 11:07–11:40 ut. On their basis, we conservatively estimate the required energy flux of the source solar flare as X35 ± 1 in soft X-ray class. The resultant ICMEs caused enormous SSCs (up to >425 nT recorded at Tucson) and allowed us to estimate an extremely inward magnetopause position (estimated magnetopause stand-off position ≈3.4 RE). The time series of the resultant geomagnetic storm is reconstructed using a Dst estimate, which peaked at 20 ut on March 24 at ≈ −389 nT. Around the storm main phase, the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval extended ≤46.3° in invariant latitudes. This sequence also caused a solar proton event and Forbush decrease (≈3 per cent). These sequences indicate pile-up of multiple ICMEs, which even achieved a record value of inward magnetopause position. Our analyses of this historical pioneer event bring more insights into possible serious space weather hazards and provide a quantitative basis for future analyses and predictions.

Space Radiation of Solar Storm: A Meeting Report in Taiwan

Solar storm was an effect when Sun was active. Solar flares flame released a large amount of energy and caused a large-scale explosion. A large amount of coronal matter was ejected into space by plasma composed of electrons and protons. Their shock waves or magnetic clouds and the earth Magnetic storms generated by the interaction of magnetic fields caused disturbances and squeezing of the earth’s magnetosphere. A solar flare was a phenomenon of solar storm. It had huge eruptions of electromagnetic radiation. The sudden electromagnetic energy traveled with the speed of light. Large solar flare might affect the effects of reliability of electronic components in satellites and could cause economic losses by soft error and could affect human health through the space radiation, especially causing cancer.

How to create an artificial magnetosphere for Mars

If humanity is ever to consider substantial, long-term colonization of Mars, the resources needed are going to be extensive. For a long-term human presence on Mars to be established, serious thought would need to be given to terraforming the planet. One major requirement for such terraforming is having the protection of a planetary magnetic field - which Mars currently does not have. The Earth's magnetosphere helps protect the planet from the potential sterilizing effects of cosmic rays and also helps retain the atmosphere, which would otherwise by stripped by large solar storms as they pass over the planet. Mars does have small patches of remnant surface magnetic field, but these are localized in the southern hemisphere and are not of sufficient size or magnitude to protect the planet or a colony.In this article we explore comprehensively for the first time, the practical and engineering challenges that affect the feasibility of creating an artificial magnetic field capable of encompassing Mars. This includes the concerns that define the design, where to locate the magnetic field generator and possible construction strategies. The rationale here is not to justify the need for a planetary magnetosphere but to put figures on the practicalities so as to be able to weigh the pros and cons of the different engineering approaches.The optimum solution proposed is completely novel, although inspired by natural situations and fusion plasma techniques. The solution with the lowest power, assembly and mass is to create an artificial charged particle ring (similar in form to a ‘radiation belt’), around the planet possibly formed by ejecting matter from one of the moons of Mars (in a fashion similar to that which forms the Jupiter-Io plasma torus), but using electromagnetic and plasma waves to drive a net current in the ring(s) that results in an overall magnetic field.With a new era of space exploration underway, this is the time to start thinking about these new and bold future concepts and to begin filling strategic knowledge gaps. Furthermore, the principles explored here are also applicable to smaller scale objects like manned spacecraft, space stations or moon bases, which would benefit from the creation of protective mini-magnetospheres.

Insights from Snapshot Spectroscopic Radio Observations of a Weak Type I Solar Noise Storm

Abstract We present a high-fidelity snapshot spectroscopic radio imaging study of a weak type I solar noise storm that took place during an otherwise exceptionally quiet time. Using high-fidelity images from the Murchison Widefield Array, we track the observed morphology of the burst source for 70 minutes and identify multiple instances where its integrated flux density and area are strongly anticorrelated with each other. The type I radio emission is believed to arise due to electron beams energized during magnetic reconnection activity. The observed anticorrelation is interpreted as evidence for presence of MHD sausage wave modes in the magnetic loops and strands along which these electron beams are propagating. Our observations suggest that the sites of these small scale reconnections are distributed along the magnetic flux tube. We hypothesize that small scale reconnections produces electron beams which quickly get collisionally damped. Hence, the plasma emission produced by them span only a narrow bandwidth and the features seen even a few mehahertz apart must arise from independent electron beams.

Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety

Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.

LEO-Constellation-Augmented BDS Precise Orbit Determination Considering Spaceborne Observational Errors

The precise orbit determination (POD) accuracy of the Chinese BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) is still not comparable to that of the Global Positioning System because of the unfavorable geometry of the BDS and the uneven distribution of BDS ground monitoring stations. Fortunately, low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, serving as fast moving stations, can efficiently improve BDS geometry. Nearly all studies on Global Navigation Satellite System POD enhancement using large LEO constellations are based on simulations and their results are usually overly optimistic. The receivers mounted on a spacecraft or an LEO satellite are usually different from geodetic receivers and the observation conditions in space are more challenging than those on the ground. The noise level of spaceborne observations needs to be carefully calibrated. Moreover, spaceborne observational errors caused by space weather events, i.e., solar geomagnetic storms, are usually ignored. Accordingly, in this study, the actual spaceborne observation noises are first analyzed and then used in subsequent observation simulations. Then, the observation residuals from the actual-processed LEO POD during a solar storm on 8 September 2017 are extracted and added to the simulated spaceborne observations. The effect of the observational errors on the BDS POD augmented with different LEO constellation configurations is analyzed. The results indicate that the noise levels from the Swarm-A, GRACE-A, and Sentinel-3A satellites are different and that the carrier-phase measurement noise ranges from 2 mm to 6 mm. Such different noise levels for LEO spaceborne observations cause considerable differences in the BDS POD solutions. Experiments calculating the augmented BDS POD for different LEO constellations considering spaceborne observational errors extracted from the solar storm indicate that these errors have a significant influence on the accuracy of the BDS POD. The 3D root mean squares of the BDS GEO, IGSO, and MEO satellite orbits are 1.30 m, 1.16 m, and 1.02 m, respectively, with a Walker 2/1/0 LEO constellation, and increase to 1.57 m, 1.72 m, and 1.32 m, respectively, with a Walker 12/3/1 constellation. When the number of LEO satellites increases to 60, the precision of the BDS POD improves significantly to 0.89 m, 0.77 m, and 0.69 m for the GEO, IGSO, and MEO satellites, respectively. While 12 satellites are sufficient to enhance the BDS POD to the sub-decimeter level, up to 60 satellites can effectively reduce the influence of large spaceborne observational errors, i.e., from solar storms.

MONITORING AND CONTROL OF NON-IONIZING RADIATION, AS A FACTOR OF THE LIVING ENVIRONMENT AND OF THE SITES, SOURCES OF NON-IONIZING RADIATION ON THE TERRITORY OF DOBRICH DISTRICT IN 2020.

We know many natural sources that create electromagnetic energy such as solar radiation, storms and lightning, electromagnetic radiation from space objects. All this forms the natural electromagnetic background of the Earth. On the other hand, there is no technology, facility, product that uses electric current that does not emit any kind of electromagnetic radiation. 
 Aim and tasks: Study of the sources of non-ionizing radiation on the territory of Dobrich district in 2020. Aim and tasks: Study of the sources of non-ionizing radiation on the territory of Dobrich district in 2020. 
 Materials: Sites subject to monitoring according to the schedule for 2020. a total of 26 sites - base stations (BS) of the telecommunications network in Dobrich District. Technical means with which the measurements and method of control of RHI Varna were performed, antenna - isotropic, working frequency band 100 kHz to 3 GHz; uncertainty +/- 20% of the measured value. 
 Methods: "Methodology for measurement and evaluation of the electromagnetic field in the vicinity of transmitting antennas to mobile communication systems"; Collection of methods for hygienic research; NCHMEH (current NCPHA), Volume IV, Settlement Environment. 
 Results: From the total of 196 measurements performed in 2020. of exposed parts in areas with high population concentration at different distances to the EMF emitters, show that the lowest measured instantaneous value of power density is <0.1 μW / cm², and the highest - 0.8 μW / cm². In the premises of children's, educational, medical establishments and outdoors the lowest measured instantaneous value is <0.1 μW / cm² and the highest 1.7 μW / cm². 
 Conclusions: 1. For 2020 the lowest measured instantaneous value is <0.1 μW / cm², and the highest 1.7 μW
 / cm², which is many times less than the MPC 10 μW / cm².2. of mobile operators do not pose a health risk to the population living and residing near them.

The Signal of Solar Storms Embedded in Cosmogenic Radionuclides: Detectability and Uncertainties

AbstractThe threat that solar storms pose to our ever‐modernizing society has gathered significant interest in the recent past. This is partly due to the discoveries of large peaks in the content of cosmogenic radionuclides such as radiocarbon (14C) in tree rings and beryllium‐10 (10Be) and chlorine‐36 (36Cl) in ice cores that were linked to extreme solar storms dated to the past millennia. To better assess the threat that they represent, we need to better quantify the relationship between their energy spectrum and their magnitude with respect to the content of the radionuclides that we measure in environmental archives such as ice cores. Here, we model the global production rate that the 59 largest particle storms coming from the Sun have induced for 10Be, 14C, and 36Cl during the past 70 years. We also consider the deposition flux in 10Be and 36Cl over the high latitudes where all Greenland ice cores are located. Our analysis shows that it is unlikely that any recent solar particle event can be detected in 10Be from ice cores. By relating these values to empirical data from ice cores, we are able to quantify different detection limits and uncertainties for 10Be and 36Cl. Due to different sensitivities to solar energetic particles, we assess that 10Be may only be suitable to detect a limited number of extreme solar storms, while 36Cl is suitable to detect any extreme particle event. This implies that the occurrence‐rate estimates of extreme solar storms, based mainly on 14C and 10Be, relate to a small population of potential events.

Prediction of GPS TEC during the X9.3 Solar Flare for DGAR low latitude station by using OKSM

The effect of solar flares on the ionospheric regions of earth, which in turn affects signals of the various Global Navigation Satellite Systems, is a very important criterion to be considered in satellite communication. In this paper, we are investigating the prediction capability of the Kriging based Model and its effect on calculating the signal delay of GPS system on 6.9.2017during which NASA have observed a solar flare which have recorded X9.3 on solar storm scale. The GPS data used in this paper for prediction of TEC is taken from the DGAR Island station. The Vertical Total Electron Content data for GPS is predicted from 3rd September 2017 to 7th September 2017 by using the previous collected 6 days of TEC data of the low latitude DGAR station from IONOLAB and also by using the input parameters like Kp index, SSN, Ap index and Dst index. The predicted results are validated by comparing them with IRI 2016 and IRI PLAS 2017 model collected during the same dates.

Converter-Based Solutions: Opening New Avenues of Power System Protection Against Solar and HEMP MHD-E3 GIC

Geomagnetic Disturbances (GMDs) are the result of solar storms or a high-altitude nuclear detonation. On the power systems, they might lead to the flow of quasi-DC currents referred as Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs). These currents cause the AC current offset that may drive the power transformers into saturation. This leads to large draw of reactive power, causes transformer internal heating and increased noise level, damage to shunt capacitors, harmonic filters and maloperation of power system protection equipment. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of the GIC mitigation and elimination strategies and their respective limitations. It also introduces converter-based strategies as a new avenue of power system protection against GICs by presenting novel strategies that involve the integration of the proposed schemes between the neutral and ground of power transformers. One of the proposed schemes is a contribution to the approaches solely focused towards GIC mitigation, whereas, the other provides a variety of grid-support functions in addition to GIC elimination. The simulations performed in a Controller Hardware-in-the-Loop (C-HIL) environment verify the proposed schemes as a promising alternative to the current GIC mitigation approaches.

A Summary of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center Proton Event Forecast Performance and Skill

AbstractThe effects of solar radiation storms at Earth are felt across a number of technology‐based industries. Energetic particles present during these storms impact electrical components on spacecraft, disrupt high frequency radio communications, and pose a radiation risk for passengers and crew on polar flight routes, as well as for astronauts. An essential aspect of space weather forecasting is therefore to predict the occurrence and properties of a solar proton event before it occurs. In this study, we review radiation storm products issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) during Solar Cycles 23 and 24. These include three‐day probabilistic proton event forecasts and short‐term Warning and Alert hazard products. We present performance metrics and forecast skill scores for SWPC probabilistic forecasts and Warning products, which can be used as a benchmark for assessing the performance of radiation storm forecast models.

Inclusion of ionizing radiation in a mathematical model for photosynthesis.

Ionizing radiation of astrophysical origin might have played an important role in biological evolution during the long course of Earth's evolution. Several phenomena might have induced intense fluctuations in background ionizing radiation, such as highly energetic stellar explosions. There might also be anthropogenic causes for environmental radiation fluctuations, resulting from nuclear industry activities. The inclusion of these effects in a mathematical model for photosynthesis provides a useful tool to account for the damages of the above-mentioned phenomena in vegetal life. Mathematical models for photosynthesis typically only consider ultraviolet radiation and photosynthetically active radiation, as they have been a ubiquitous physical factor in the settlement of vegetal life. In this work a mathematical model for aquatic photosynthesis is modified, from first principles, to include the action of particulate ionizing radiation on the photosynthetic process. After assuming an ansatz allowing to separate damage/repair kinetics of ultraviolet and ionizing radiations, a treatable mathematical expression of the model is obtained. This generalized model is presented as a function of radiometric and photometric magnitudes, making it prone to calibration and useful to apply to aquatic ecosystems under radiational stress due to gamma-ray bursts, cosmic ray bursts, solar storms, or other sources of ionizing radiations.

Deep Neural Networks With Convolutional and LSTM Layers for SYM‐H and ASY‐H Forecasting

AbstractGeomagnetic indices quantify the disturbance caused by the solar activity on a planetary scale or in particular regions of the Earth. Among them, the SYM‐H and ASY‐H indices represent the (longitudinally) symmetric and asymmetric geomagnetic disturbance of the horizontal component of the magnetic field at midlatitude with a 1‐min resolution. Their resolution, along with their relation to the solar wind parameters, makes the forecasting of the geomagnetic indices a problem that can be addressed through the use of Deep Learning, particularly using Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). In this work, we present two DNNs developed to forecast respectively the SYM‐H and ASY‐H indices. Both networks have been trained using the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and the related index for the solar storms occurred in the last two solar cycles. As a result, the networks are able to accurately forecast the indices 2 h in advance, considering the IMF and indices values for the previous 200 min. The evaluation of both networks reveals a great forecasting precision, including good predictions for large storms that occurred during the solar cycle 23 and comparing with the persistence model for the period 2013–2020.

Using Gradient Boosting Regression to Improve Ambient Solar Wind Model Predictions

AbstractStudying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure‐driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and especially during solar minimum are themselves a driver of activity in the Earth's magnetic field. Accurately forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. Here, we present a machine learning approach in which solutions from magnetic models of the solar corona are used to output the solar wind conditions near the Earth. The results are compared to observations and existing models in a comprehensive validation analysis, and the new model outperforms existing models in almost all measures. In addition, this approach offers a new perspective to discuss the role of different input data to ambient solar wind modeling, and what this tells us about the underlying physical processes. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well‐validated and open‐source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth.

The Relative Importance of Geomagnetic Storm Signatures on the Total Electron Content Perturbations Over the Continental US

AbstractA study of 37 large solar storms occurring in the equinox periods from 2000 to 2018 is presented to quantify their effects on total electron content (TEC) variations in the ionosphere over the North American sector. The dependence of storm‐related TEC enhancements and depletions is studied as a function of various storm parameters using machine‐learning and statistical algorithms to quantify their relative importance. The variables under consideration include the onset time and duration of each storm, as well as characteristic scalar values derived from ring current variations detected by a network of ground‐based magnetometers. The TEC data used in the study are taken from the Continuously Operating Reference Station network of ground‐based GPS measurements, archived in the Madrigal database. The agreement and disagreement of the results across the different methods studied, along with the relative uncertainties in model prediction capability of the machine‐learning study, show that the geo‐effectiveness of large storms in the equinox periods is more closely related to the storm onset time and to ionospheric preconditioning than to any other parameters used in characterizing the storm. The effects in the higher latitude regions are shown to be very different from the lower latitude regions over the North American sector. This behavior can possibly be explained through storm‐induced changes in the atmospheric chemistry and the related temperature‐dependent production and loss processes at the higher latitudes.

Surface electrostatic discharge of charged typical space materials induced by strong electromagnetic interference

Surface charging of typical space materials such as polyimide and high density polyethylene may sometimes cause electrostatic discharge (ESD) under natural conditions. That is because polymer materials usually present lower surface discharge strength compared with their bulk breakdown strength, especially in vacuum. However, the space environment is very complicated, extremely hostile environments such as solar storms and magnetospheric substorms may happen and bring strong electromagnetic interference (EMI), which may induce ESD in spacecraft more easily and cause great damage to those spacecraft. In this paper, an innovative platform which can simulate the ESD of materials induced by strong EMI of microwave sources is set up. The influence of different factors such as power density, repetition frequency of microwave source, electromagnetic wave angle and distance between high voltage and ground electrode are researched. In addition, we perform particle-in-cell simulations to illustrate multipactor dynamics under the influence of strong electromagnetic waves. The induced discharging can be attributed to the electric field component of strong electromagnetic waves.

Venus and solar storms: Solar Energetic Particles, Stream Interaction Regions and Coronal Mass Ejections

Venus and solar storms: Solar Energetic Particles, Stream Interaction Regions and Coronal Mass Ejections

Taming the Bubble

Taming the Bubble

Analysis of IMF Orientation and Pc5 Power During St. Patrick Geomagnetic Storm on 17 March 2015

Solar storms have a hazardous effect on the Earth, one of the most powerful is Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). St. Patrick geomagnetic storm is a severe geomagnetic storm which is caused by partial halo CME. Propagation of CME at interplanetary space is detected by solar wind parameters by speed and magnetic field. Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has orientation to determine the shift of solar wind particle. IMF orientation can be classified by IMF cone angle and IMF clock angle. Both can be used as an indicator of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. This study aims to determine the flow of solar wind to the magnetosphere. The solar wind will enter the magnetosphere can be detected by THEMIS satellite orbits at ∼100 km to ∼12 RE at magnetotail and ground-based Fluxgate Magnetometer at LAPAN Pasuruan. Meanwhile, the geomagnetic storm is observed by Dst index. We combine data from interplanetary space, magnetosphere, and ground-based magnetometer and processed to Pc5 power. The results are IMF clock angle was closer to zero and IMF cone angle got wider on 15-18 March 2015, FM and FGM Pc5 power surged since March 16, 2015. Finally, a severe geomagnetic storm observed on March 17, 2015 with Dst index was -222 nT.