Abstract
Extreme solar storms, high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, and coordinated cyber attacks could disrupt regional/global electricity. Since electricity basically drives industry, industrial civilization could collapse without it. This could cause anthropological civilization (cities) to collapse, from which humanity might not recover, having long-term consequences. Previous work analyzed technical solutions to save nearly everyone despite industrial loss globally, including transition to animals powering farming and transportation. The present work estimates cost-effectiveness for the long-term future with a Monte Carlo (probabilistic) model. Model 1, partly based on a poll of Effective Altruism conference participants, finds a confidence that industrial loss preparation is more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety of ~ 88% and ~ 99+% for the 30 millionth dollar spent on industrial loss interventions and the margin now, respectively. Model 2 populated by one of the authors produces ~ 50% and ~ 99% confidence, respectively. These confidences are likely to be reduced by model and theory uncertainty, but the conclusion of industrial loss interventions being more cost-effective was robust to changing the most important 4–7 variables simultaneously to their pessimistic ends. Both cause areas save expected lives cheaply in the present generation and funding to preparation for industrial loss is particularly urgent.
Highlights
Civilization relies on a network of highly interdependent critical infrastructure (CI) to provide basic necessities, as well as complex items and services, referred to as industry
Sampling methods used were: Monte Carlo (MC) in which N randomly selected points are independently drawn from input distributions; and Median Latin Hypercube (MLH) in which probability distributions are divided into M equiprobable intervals, independently shuffled and selected, with the median of the interval providing the sample point
In order to convert average cost-effectiveness to marginal for interventions, we use logarithmic returns [30], which results in the relative marginal cost-effectiveness being one divided by the cumulative money spent
Summary
Civilization relies on a network of highly interdependent critical infrastructure (CI) to provide basic necessities (water, food, shelter, basic goods), as well as complex items (computers, cars, space shuttles) and services (the internet, cloud computing, global supply chains), referred to as industry. Review of potential solutions An obvious intervention for HEMP is preventing a nuclear exchange, which would be the best outcome It is not neglected, as it has been worked on for many decades [13, 32, 36, 37, 64, 84, 125] and is currently funded at billions of dollars per year quality adjusted [84, 85]. Preventing the collapse of electricity/industry would be the preferable option, but given the high cost, it may not happen Even if it occurs eventually, it would still be preferable to have a backup plan in the near term and in the case that hardening is unsuccessful at stopping loss of industry
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
