Solar Storms Research Articles

Distributed network of optically pumped magnetometers for space weather monitoring.

Spatial variation in the intensity of magnetospheric and ionospheric fluctuations during solar storms creates ground-induced currents, of importance in both infrastructure engineering and geophysical science. This activity is presently measured using a network of ground-based magnetometers, typically consisting of extensive installations at established observatory sites. We show that this network can be enhanced by the addition of remote quantum magnetometers which combine high sensitivity with intrinsic calibration. These nodes utilize scalable hardware and run independently of wired communication and power networks. We demonstrate that optically pumped magnetometers, utilizing mass-produced and miniaturized components, offer a single scalable sensor with the sensitivity and stability required for space weather observation. We describe the development and deployment of an off-grid magnetic sensing node, powered by a solar panel, present observed data from periods of low and high geomagnetic activity, and compare it to existing geomagnetic observatories.

Unveiling key factors in solar eruptions leading to the solar superstorm in 2024 May

NOAA active region (AR) 13664/8 produced the most intense geomagnetic effects since the Halloween event of 2003. The resulting extreme solar storm is thought to be the consequence of multiple interacting coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Notably, this AR exhibits exceptionally rapid magnetic flux emergence. The eruptions on which we focus all occurred along collisional polarity inversion lines (PILs) through collisional shearing during a three-day period of extraordinarily high flux emergence (sim 1021 Mx hr$^ $). Our key findings reveal how photospheric magnetic configurations in eruption sources influence solar superstorm formation and geomagnetic responses, and link exceptionally strong flux emergence to sequential homologous eruptions: (1) We identified the source regions of seven halo CMEs that were distributed primarily along two distinct PILs. This distribution suggests two groups of homologous CMEs. (2) The variations in the magnetic flux emergence rates in the source regions are correlated with the CME intensities. This might explain the two contrasting cases of complex ejecta that are observed at Earth. (3) Our calculations of the magnetic field gradients around the CME source regions show strong correlations with eruptions. This provides crucial insights into solar eruption mechanisms and enhances our prediction capabilities for future events.

New Insights into Type-I Solar Noise Storms from High Angular Resolution Spectroscopic Imaging with the Upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope

Type-I solar noise storms are perhaps the most commonly observed active radio emissions from the Sun at meter-wavelengths. Noise storms have a long-lived and wideband continuum background with superposed islands of much brighter narrowband and short-lived emissions, known as type-I bursts. There is a serious paucity of studies focusing on the morphology of these two types of emissions, primarily because of the belief that coronal scattering will always wash out any features at small angular scales. However, it is important to investigate their spatial structures in detail to make a spatio-temporal connection with observations at extreme-ultraviolet/X-ray bands to understand the detailed nature of these emissions. In this work, we use high angular resolution observations from the upgraded Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope to demonstrate that it is possible to detect structures with angular scales as small as ∼9″, about three times smaller than the smallest structure reported to date from noise storms. Our observations also suggest that while the individual type-I bursts are narrowband in nature, the bursts are probably caused by traveling disturbance(s) inducing magnetic reconnections at different coronal heights, and thus leading to correlated change in the morphology of the type-I bursts observed at a wide range of frequencies.

The Mother’s Day Solar Storm of 11 May 2024 and Its Effect on Earth’s Radiation Belts

The Mother’s Day Solar Storm of 11 May 2024 and Its Effect on Earth’s Radiation Belts

Precise and Accurate Short-term Forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle Events with Multivariate Time-series Classifiers

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised classification framework on a multivariate time-series data set covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. We implement ensemble modeling that merges the results from three proton channels (E ≥ 10 MeV, 50 MeV, and 100 MeV) and the long-band X-ray flux (1–8 Å) channel from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite missions. Our task is binary classification, such that the aim of the model is to distinguish strong SEP events from nonevents. Here, strong SEP events are those crossing the Space Weather Prediction Center’s “S1” threshold of solar radiation storm and proton fluxes below that threshold are weak SEP events. In addition, we consider periods of nonoccurrence of SEPs following a flare with magnitudes ≥C6.0 to maintain a natural imbalance of sample distribution. In our data set, there are 244 strong SEP events comprising the positive class. There are 189 weak events and 2460 “SEP-quiet” periods for the negative class. We experiment with summary statistic, one-nearest neighbor, and supervised time-series forest (STSF) classifiers and compare their performance to validate our methods for prediction windows from 5 minutes up to 60 minutes. We find the STSF model to perform better under all circumstances. For an optimal classification threshold of ≈0.3 and a 60 minutes prediction window, we obtain a true skill statistic TSS = 0.850, Heidke skill score HSS = 0.878, and Gilbert skill score GSS = 0.783.

Rekonstruksi Kalimat pada Teks Berita di Laman CNN Indonesia Edisi Desember 2023 sebagai Bahan Ajar Membaca Kritis Siswa Kelas 12 SMA

News is a text that has an important role in disseminating information. News text is so useful that it has become a literacy material for students due to the development of advanced technology. Although it has become one of the sources of student literacy, online news texts are still classified as having syntactic errors such as a lack of understanding of the language used in compiling a sentence in the news. The purpose of this study is to describe sentence errors in the news contained in the old CNN Indonesia news, such as "December Sky Phenomena: Geminid Meteor Shower to Solstice", "Mandalika Circuit's Important Role in Bringing Indonesian Drivers to Success in Asia", "Solar Storms Raining on Earth, RI Safe?", "The First Candidate Debate will be Held at the KPU Office on December 12", and "When HIV Tests Become a Scary Scourge Because of People's Scorn". This research uses a descriptive method with a qualitative approach. The results of this study found several findings such as effective sentences, ineffective sentences, spelling errors according to EYD, errors in the use of diction, and sentences that are not clear to the reader. The most common error found in the five news articles is ineffective sentences. The benefit of this research is to provide knowledge insights in the form of understanding sentence writing systematically, which will be useful in improving understanding of authorship in news texts and preventing errors from occurring again in the same news so that it is worthy of being a literacy material for 12th grade high school students.

An investigation into the influence of solar flares and geomagnetic storms on the F2 layer of the ionosphere in Western Europe during March 2024

On March 23 and 24, 2024, the M-class and X-class solar storms significantly intensified. Subsequently, from March 24 to 26, the monitoring station’s Kp index notably increased, at times exceeding 8, indicating that a severe geomagnetic storm was occurring. During this period, the IGS Global Ionosphere Maps (GIMs) displayed a substantial decrease in Total Electron Content (TEC) in Western Europe due to the impact of the intense geomagnetic storms. To investigate this occurrence, data from the Lowell GIRO Data Center were utilized. The analysis revealed that a concentrated solar flare eruption on March 23, 2024, triggered geomagnetic storm events on Earth, causing significant ionospheric anomalies in Western European countries. Specifically, compared to typical levels, parameters such as foF2, m3000F2, and TEC values experienced significant reductions in Western European countries. Moreover, the hmF2 data exhibited higher values at night and lower values during the day, deviating from the expected diurnal pattern. Analysis of the Rate of TEC Index (ROTI) indicated varying effects of geomagnetic storms across different latitudes in Western Europe. Through detailed graphical analysis, this study elucidates the alterations in the ionosphere under geomagnetic storm conditions in Western Europe, shedding light on the dynamic behavior of the ionosphere during a specific timeframe.

Extreme solar storms and the quest for exact dating with radiocarbon.

Radiocarbon (14C) is essential for creating chronologies to study the timings and drivers of pivotal events in human history and the Earth system over the past 55,000 years. It is also a fundamental proxy for investigating solar processes, including the potential of the Sun for extreme activity. Until now, fluctuations in past atmospheric 14C levels have limited the dating precision possible using radiocarbon. However, the discovery of solar super-storms known as extreme solar particle events (ESPEs) has driven a series of advances with the potential to transform the calendar-age precision of radiocarbon dating. Organic materials containing unique 14C ESPE signatures can now be dated to annual precision. In parallel, the search for further storms using high-precision annual 14C measurements has revealed fine-scaled variations that can be used toimprove calendar-age precision, even in periods that lack ESPEs. Furthermore, the newly identified 14C fluctuations provide unprecedented insight into solar variability and the carbon cycle. Here, we review the current state of knowledge and share our insights into these rapidly developing, diverse research fields. We identify links between radiocarbon, archaeology, solar physics and Earth science to stimulate transdisciplinary collaboration, and we propose how researchers can take advantage of these recent developments.

Assessing the Impact of Catastrophic Electricity Loss on the Food Supply Chain

The food supply chain’s heavy reliance on electricity poses significant vulnerabilities in the event of prolonged and widespread power disruptions. This study introduces a system-dynamics model that integrates five critical infrastructures—electric grid, liquid fossil fuels, Internet, transportation, and human workforce—to evaluate the resilience of food supply chains to major power outages. We validated the model using the 2019 Venezuelan blackouts as a case study, demonstrating its predictive validity. We then explored how more extreme electricity losses would disrupt the supply chain. More specifically, we modeled the impact of a large-scale cyberattack on the US electric grid and a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event. A cyberattack severely damaging the US electric grid and allowing for recovery within a few weeks or months would lead to substantial drops in food consumption. However, it would likely still be possible to provide adequate calories to everyone, assuming that food is equitably distributed. In contrast, a year-long recovery from a HEMP event affecting most of the continental United States could precipitate a state of famine. Our analysis represents a first attempt at quantifying how food availability progressively worsens as power outages extend over time. Our open-source model is made publicly available, and we encourage its application to other catastrophic scenarios beyond those specifically considered in this work (for example, extreme solar storms, high-lethality pandemics).

Low-frequency solar radio type II bursts and their association with space weather events during the ascending phase of solar cycle 25

Abstract. Type II solar radio bursts are signatures of the coronal shocks and, therefore, particle acceleration events in the solar atmosphere and interplanetary space. Type II bursts can serve as a proxy to provide early warnings of incoming solar storm disturbances, such as geomagnetic storms and radiation storms, which may further lead to ionospheric effects. In this article, we report the first observation of 32 type II bursts by measuring various plasma parameters that occurred between May 2021 and December 2022 in solar cycle 25. We further evaluated their accompanying space weather events in terms of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) enhancement using the rate of TEC index (ROTI). In this study, we find that at heliocentric distance ∼1–2 R⊙, the shock and the Alfvén speeds are in the range 504–1282 and 368–826 km−1, respectively. The Alfvén Mach number is of the order of 1.2≤MA≤1.8 at the above-mentioned heliocentric distance. In addition, the measured magnetic field strength is consistent with the earlier reports and follows a single power law B(r)=6.07r-3.96G. Based on the current analysis, it is found that 19 out of 32 type II bursts are associated with immediate space weather events in terms of radio blackouts and polar cap absorption events, making them strong indications of space weather disruption. The ROTI enhancements, which indicate ionospheric irregularities, strongly correlate with GOES X-ray flares, which are associated with the type II radio bursts recorded. The diurnal variability in ROTI is proportional to the strength of the associated flare class, and the corresponding longitudinal variation is attributed to the difference in longitude. This article demonstrates that since type II bursts are connected to space weather hazards, understanding various physical parameters of type II bursts helps to predict and forecast the space weather.

Unveiling the Interplanetary Solar Radio Bursts of the 2024 Mother’s Day Solar Storm

We report on a comprehensive study of interplanetary type III radio bursts linked to X-class solar flares from NOAA active region 13664, which instigated the intense 2024 Mother’s Day solar storm, marked by a geomagnetic storm of −412 nT, the strongest in over two decades. Utilizing novel localization techniques with direction-finding data from STEREO-A, we identify an average eastward drift of 13.°42 ± 11.°63 in radio source locations relative to GOES observations. Our analysis reveals a significant correlation between solar flare intensity and longitude (Kendall’s tau = 0.535) and a strong correlation between radio flux at 1 MHz and GOES 1–8 Å soft X-ray flux (Kendall’s tau = 0.648). The timing analysis shows that peak soft X-ray fluxes typically follow electron beam liftoff by 3.24 ± 4.42 minutes. These insights into solar radio burst propagation and localization enhance our understanding of solar–terrestrial interactions and improve space weather forecasting capabilities.

Modeling GIC in the Southern South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand Using Magnetotelluric Data

AbstractMagnetotelluric (MT) impedances from 62 sites in southern South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand have been used to model geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in four transformers during two solar storms. Induced electric fields during the storms are calculated from the MT impedances using the magnetic fields measured at the Eyrewell (EYR) geomagnetic observatory, approximately 200 km north of the study area. Calculated GIC during the sudden storm commencements (SSC) give a generally good match to GIC measured by the network operator, Transpower New Zealand. Long period GIC (periods longer than about 10,000 s) are less well modeled. Calculations based on thin‐sheet modeling, which has restrictions on the shortest period of variation which can be modeled, perform less well for the GIC associated with SSC, but are equally good, if not better, at modeling longer period GIC. Consistent underestimation of large GIC at one transformer (HWBT4) near Dunedin are likely to be the result of uncertainty in the assumed values of line, transformer, and earthing resistances. The assumption of a spatially uniform magnetic field across the study area, which is implied by use of the magnetic field measured at EYR as a basis for calculation, may also lead to incorrect calculation of GIC. For one storm use of magnetic field data from a magnetometer within the study area leads to much improved modeling of the observed GIC. This study compares modeled and measured GIC using specifically measured MT impedance data.

Solar Storms and the Geomagnetic Field

Solar Storms and the Geomagnetic Field

Overview of the Space Weather Impact on the Navigation and Communication Systems

This article summarizes and analyzes the space weather impact on the Earth´s surface, aviation – especially navigation and communication aids, satellite functions ensuring communication, and GPS function. Forecasting the geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, radio blackouts, X-ray flux, and others is difficult due to the high variability of the space weather conditions and sun activity. It can change every hour and the exact space weather conditions and the impact on aviation for the future are hard to predict. This article shows some predictions and historical data regarding space weather activity, where the stated values were collected from the NOAA page. The article states the daily maximums or the maximums of predicted phenomena activity. Because of the complexity and the facts mentioned above, the historical data and predictions show the summary and most important phenomena of the day. The article consists of 3 main chapters: 1. Space Weather 2. Space Weather Impact on Technological Vulnerability 3. Space Weather Condition Overview in Data. The last chapter in this article is a conclusion that consists of and mentions some information about the used alternative methods when a GPS lapse occurs. Even though there are some alternate systems, but still using satellite-based navigation and communication aids is still the first option, and space weather events highly affect the systems and are a big hazard for aviation.

Probabilistic sunspot predictions with a gated recurrent units-based combined model guided by pinball loss

Sunspots play a crucial role in both weather forecasting and the monitoring of solar storms. In this work, we propose a novel combined model for sunspot prediction using improved gated recurrent units (GRU) guided by pinball loss for probabilistic forecasts. Specifically, we optimize the GRU parameters using the slime mould algorithm and employ a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on loess to tackle challenges related to sequence prediction, such as self-correlations and non-stationarity. To address prediction uncertainty, we replace the traditional l2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$l_2$$\\end{document}-norm loss with pinball loss. This modification extends the conventional GRU-based point forecasting to a probabilistic framework expressed as quantiles. We apply our proposed model to analyze a well-established historical sunspot dataset for both single- and multi-step ahead forecasting. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our combined model in predicting sunspot values, surpassing the performance of other existing methods.

Water as Memory, Water as Kin: A Hydrological Analysis of Hogan’s Solar Storms and Trethewey’s Beyond Katrina

Water as Memory, Water as Kin: A Hydrological Analysis of Hogan’s <i>Solar Storms</i> and Trethewey’s <i>Beyond Katrina</i>

Wood Chipper Design for Biofuel Production in a Global Catastrophic Loss of Infrastructure Scenario

A variety of events such as high-altitude electromagnetic pulses, extreme solar storms, and coordinated cyber attacks could result in a catastrophic loss of infrastructure on a continental or global scale. The lengthy repair of critical infrastructure creates a need for alternative fuels such as wood gas. Wood gas is produced by heating wood in a low-oxygen environment and can be used to power combustion engines. This work investigates a novel wood chipper, designed as an energy-efficient tool for producing wood gas stock, wood chips, aiming to speed up the transition to alternative fuel. A prototype is built and tested to determine the energy efficiency and production rate of the device. The results suggest that the wood chipper could produce one cord of wood chips, 3.6 m3, in less than a day and is a viable alternative to other manual wood-processing methods. In addition, the global scaling up of production of the wood chipper is considered, indicating that the mass production of the wood chipper could accelerate the transition of wood gas production methods from manual to machine-driven immediately after a catastrophic event.

Cannibals in PARADISE: The Effect of Merging Interplanetary Shocks on Solar Energetic Particle Events

Gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events are associated with shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The merging of two CMEs (so-called cannibalistic CMEs) and the interaction of their associated shocks has been linked to some of the most powerful solar storms ever recorded. Multiple studies have focused on the observational aspects of these SEP events, yet only a handful have focused on modeling similar CME–CME interactions in the heliosphere using advanced magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. This work presents, to our knowledge, the first modeling results of a fully time-dependent 3D simulation that captures both the interaction of two CMEs and its effect on the acceleration and transport of SEPs. This is achieved by using an MHD model for the solar wind and CME propagation together with an integrated SEP model. We perform different simulations and compare the behavior of the energetic protons in three different solar wind environments, where a combination of two SEP-accelerating CMEs are modeled. We find that particle acceleration is significantly affected by the presence of both CMEs in the simulation. Initially, less efficient acceleration results in lower-energy particles. However, as the CMEs converge and their shocks eventually merge, particle acceleration is significantly enhanced through multiple acceleration processes between CME-driven shocks, resulting in higher particle intensities and energy levels.

Synchronization of angular velocities of chaotic leader-follower satellites using a novel integral terminal sliding mode controller

Synchronization of satellite systems offers numerous advantages, including cost-effectiveness, flexibility, and extended area coverage. However, the presence of chaotic behavior in such systems poses substantial challenges. This paper investigates chaos in satellite systems and proposes a novel approach - the Novel Integral Terminal Sliding Mode (NITSM) controller - specifically designed for synchronizing the angular velocities of chaotic Leader-Follower satellite systems. The NITSM controller leverages limited-time features to eliminate chattering and exhibits remarkable robustness against external disturbances such as cosmic rays and solar storms. MATLAB simulations are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, comparing the synchronization error of the NITSM controller with a common approach. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the Novel Integral Terminal Sliding Mode controller, showcasing reduced response time, robust behavior, and a substantial six-fold reduction in angular velocity synchronization error.

Onset mechanism of an inverted U-shaped solar filament eruption revealed by NVST, SDO, and STEREO-A observations

Context. Solar filaments, also called solar prominences when appearing on the solar limb, consist of dense, cool plasma suspended in the hot and tenuous corona. They are the main potential sources of solar storms. Aims. To understand the onset mechanism of solar filaments, we investigated the eruption process of an inverted U-shaped solar filament and two precursory jet-like activities. Methods. Using observations from the New Vacuum Solar Telescope (NVST), the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), we investigated the event from two distinct observational perspectives: on the solar disk using NVST and SDO, and on the solar limb using STEREO-A. We employed both a nonlinear force-free field model and a potential field model to reconstruct the coronal magnetic field with the aim to understand its magnetic properties. Results. Two precursor jet-like activities were observed before the eruption, displaying an untwisted rotation. The second activity released an estimated twist of over two turns. During these two jet-like activities, Y-shaped brightenings, which are newly emerging magnetic flux accompanied by magnetic cancellation, and the formation of newly moving fibrils were identified. When these observational features are combined, it can be inferred that these two precursor jet-like activities released the magnetic field that constrained the filament and were caused by newly emerging magnetic flux. Before the filament eruption, it was observed that some moving flows had been ejected from the site as the onset of two jet-like activities, indicating the same physical process as in the two jet-like activities. Extrapolations revealed that the filament was below the height of the decay index of 1.0 and had a strong magnetic field (540 Gauss) and a high twist number (2.4 turns) before the eruption. An apparent rotational motion was observed during the filament eruption. Conclusions. We deduce that the solar filament, exhibiting an inverted U-shape, is a significantly twisted flux rope. The eruption of the filament was initiated by the release of constraining magnetic fields through continuous magnetic reconnection. This reconnection process was caused by the emergence of new magnetic flux.