Soil Water Assessment Tool Research Articles

Analysis of micro-hydro potential based on landuse planning in the Kelara watershed

Energy needs to become an inseparable part of the community’s living needs, along with the rapid increase in development. The supply of electricity is carried out by PT PLN (Persero), as an official institution appointed by the government to manage electricity problems in Indonesia, so far it has not been able to meet the community’s need for electricity as a whole. So, it is necessary to develop the potential for renewable energy such as hydropower. Potential water resources that can be used as sources of electrical energy such as the Hydroelectric Power Plant and Micro-Hydro Power Plant. Based on these problems, this research was conducted to analyze the potential of micro-hydro using the Geographic Information System method with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the application of spatial pattern plans to increase potential areas in micro-hydro development in Kelara Watershed, South Sulawesi. This research uses the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model approach and the calculation of hydraulic power. Classification of land cover in 2015 in Kelara watershed with vegetation is 6,469.45 ha (16.81%) of the total area of the watershed. The results showed that with 2015 land cover conditions, there were 22 sub-watersheds with the potential for micro-hydro development from 83 sub-watersheds in Kelara Watershed. Assuming a minimum of 10 kW of power is generated at any time, 12 sub-watersheds are obtained, which can be used for micro-hydropower plants. The implementation of the spatial plan in 2031 can reduce the number of potential sub-watersheds based on minimum discharge. The condition of land cover in 2015 amounted to 22 sub-watersheds, while in the spatial plan, there are 21 potential sub-watersheds.

How effective are River Basin Management Plans in reaching the nutrient load reduction targets?

Riverine nutrient loads are among the major causes of eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. This study applied the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three catchments flowing to the Baltic Sea, namely Vantaanjoki (Finland), Fyrisån (Sweden), and Słupia (Poland), to simulate the effectiveness of nutrient control measures included in the EU’s Water Framework Directive River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs). Moreover, we identified similar, coastal, middle-sized catchments to which conclusions from this study could be applicable. The first modelling scenario based on extrapolation of the existing trends affected the modelled nutrient loads by less than 5%. In the second scenario, measures included in RBMPs showed variable effectiveness, ranging from negligible for Słupia to 28% total P load reduction in Vantaanjoki. Adding spatially targeted measures to RBMPs (third scenario) would considerably improve their effectiveness in all three catchments for both total N and P, suggesting a need to adopt targeting more widely in the Baltic Sea countries.

Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil

AbstractGlobal climate predictions and possible environmental impacts have an increasing source of concern in recent years. Analyses of the impacts of climate change scenarios on regional hydrology are required to design effective adaptation strategies for specific river basins. This study focuses on assessment of future climate change impacts on water resources of the Mundaú River Basin (MRB), in Brazil, using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Eta‐MIROC5 and Eta‐HadGEM2, for three time periods under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In general, climate models predict that the MRB will experience significant annual precipitation decreases, between 0.4% (1,087.45 mm) and 25.3% (815.59 mm), in both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) respectively, when compared to the observed period (2003–2016). Maximum and minimum temperature increases up to 2.3°C and 0.65°C under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and up to 4.3°C and 2.2°C under the RCP 8.5 scenario. SWAT simulations predict substantial surface runoff decreases with a minimum average annual value of 21.3 mm for the RCP 8.5 in medium‐term. Additionally, actual evapotranspiration (ET) is predicted to decrease from 780.77 to a minimum of 648.1 mm, although increases in potential evapotranspiration (ET0) are expected. In general, annual streamflow also is expected to decrease, more severely under RCP 8.5 conditions, reaching a drop of approximately 66.7% (15.2 m3·s−1), compared to the observed period (45.5 m3·s−1). Seasonal streamflow is predicted to decrease for both models, in both rainy and dry seasons, except for medium‐term of the Eta‐HadGEM2. Although there are still some uncertainties associated with climate models, the findings from this study can assist water resource managers in management decisions for appropriate water use, development of public policies that favour sustainability, and adoption of mitigation and prevention practices to ensure water security in the basin.

Evaluation of Irrigation Water Resources Availability and Climate Change Impacts—A Case Study of Mwea Irrigation Scheme, Kenya

Rice is an important cereal crop in Kenya, where it is mainly grown in the Mwea Irrigation Scheme, MIS. The serious challenges of MIS include low water use efficiency and limited available water resources. The objective of this study is to analyze the current and future irrigation water resource availability for the improvement of future water management. A Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a public domain software supported by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service in Bushland, TX, USA, was used to estimate the current and future water resources availability from the MIS’s main irrigation water supply sources (River Thiba and River Nyamindi). CropWat, a computer program developed by the Land and Water Division of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Rome, Italy, was used to estimate irrigation water requirements from 2013–2016 and into the future (2020–2060 and 2061–2099). Future climatic data for total available flow and irrigation requirement estimations were downloaded from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). The data was bias corrected and down-scaled (with observed data) using a Climate Change Toolkit, a toolkit for climate change analysis developed by the Water Weather and Energy Ecosystem, Zurich, Switzerland. The results indicated that the highest irrigation water deficits were experienced in July and August based on the existing cropping pattern. Under a proposed future pattern, estimates show that MIS will experience water deficits mainly from June to October and from January to February. This study recommends that MIS management should put into strong consideration the simulated future estimates in irrigation water availability for the improvement of water management.

HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF FOOD USING SWAT AS GEOSPATIAL TECHNIQUES IN THE CATCHMENT AREA OF TERENGGANU MALAYSIA

Risks and hazards are two important issues currently threatening humanity and the environment. Flood has claimed many lives and destroyed properties in Malaysia and Africa and Nigeria. It is global catastrophe. The application of geospatial science is, therefore, very important advantages that it offers solutions to flood. This stud uses of Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Digital Elevation Model (ASTER-DEM), and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in visualizing floods disaster risk. The whole catchment area of Terengganu has been delineated. The 25 sub-basins have been identified and the flood risk zones have been modeled. The complete watersheds are characterized by different sub-basins and Hydrologic Respond Units (HRUs) which can be viewed in 3D environment.

Spatial interpolation of daily precipitation based on modified ADW method for gauge-scarce mountainous regions: A case study in the Shiyang River Basin

Precipitation is among the major drivers in hydrological modeling, and spatial rainfall distribution is essential for understanding ecohydrological processes. Inaccurate rainfall spatial surface is the main source of model uncertainty, especially where rainfall gauges are sparse in mountainous areas and, where the spatial precipitation distribution is closely related to elevation. This study proposes a daily rainfall interpolation method based on the Angular Distance Weighting (ADW) method considering the precipitation–elevation relationship and topographic effects derived from observed data. Furthermore, the method is used to generate daily rainfall in the Shiyang River basin from 1984 to 2012. Cross-validation results indicate that this method is rational, where the annual mean relative errors (MRE) are less than 30% at the majority of the stations. The rationality of the interpolated precipitation data at high altitude regions, where limited rainfall gauges exist, is also evaluated using a comparison of the observed and simulated runoff modeled by the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model with interpolated rainfall could generate better-simulated discharges than that with observed rainfall data. The results demonstrate that the proposed method could provide an accurate spatial distribution of daily precipitation, which can sufficiently drive the hydrological model.

A two-stage fuzzy-stochastic factorial analysis method for characterizing effects of uncertainties in hydrological modelling

ABSTRACT In this study, a two-stage fuzzy-stochastic factorial analysis (TFFA) method is developed and applied to the Vakhsh watershed (upper reaches of Aral Sea basin, Central Asia) for daily streamflow simulation. TFFA has advantages in identifying the major parameters that have important individual and interactive effects on model outputs, as well as assessing multiple uncertainties resulting from randomness and vagueness characteristics of model parameters. The results reveal that (a) nine major parameters (from a total of 24) have significant effects on Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulation performance for the study watershed; and (b) snowmelt-related parameters (including snowfall temperature, threshold temperature for snowmelt and snowmelt factor) and runoff curve number (CN2) are most sensitive parameters for the runoff generation. The results also show that the proposed TFFA method can help enhance the hydrological model’s capability for runoff simulation/prediction, particularly for in data-scarce and high-mountainous watersheds.

Water scarcity-risk assessment in data-scarce river basins under decadal climate change using a hydrological modelling approach

Basin-scale water scarcity, an adverse consequence of the imbalance between the available fresh water and water demands, is an alarming situation in many countries worldwide. This necessitates for analyzing the risk of water scarcity forced with the changing climate, land-use alterations, growing population, and industrialization to pave a way for sustainable water resources systems planning and management. This study advocates a hydrological model-based evaluation approach employing Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to identify the dominating drivers on the decadal streamflow patterns and other basin-scale water balance components, viz., blue water flow (BWF), green water storage (GWS), and green water flow (GWF) in the Brahmani and Baitarani River basins of eastern India. The results reveal that, in these basins, the climate change effect has relatively a higher impact on streamflow than the land-use change. This study surmises that the Brahmani and Baitarani River basins can be categorized under the high- and moderate-risk water scarcity zones, respectively. The developed approach of assessing the water scarcity risk under the non-availability of basin-scale sectoral water demands could be a reliable tool for many data-scarce river basins worldwide.

Modelling Catchment Land Use Changes against Water Yield with Satellite Multi-Temporal Data

Land-use changes are the main issue which affects the availability of water resources. Water supply is the leading ecosystem service, directly influence the sustainable development of the social economy and ecological systems. This study model the effects of land-use changes in respect of water yield, using Soil water assessment tools (SWAT) model in Sg. Layang catchment, Johor, Malaysia. Changes in Land-use for the period of 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2000-2010 obtained through post-classification comparison of Landsat 7 ETM+ data acquired in 2000, 2005 and 2010 using maximum likelihood classifier. The results indicate a rise in water yield, as a result of forest decline as well as an increase in agricultural activities and urbanization. The changes in the forest are found directly proportional to water yield (R2 > 0.85, p < 0.001). It is therefore concluded that the satellite multi-temporal land use changes within the catchment are paramount for monitoring the corresponding water yield in the area. These land use changes to water yield are crucial to assist authorities to create a balance between environmental protection and urban development for sustainable management of water resources.

Assessment of climate change impact on future streamflow at Bernam river basin Malaysia

Climate change is anticipated to bring variability in future streamflows in various watersheds. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2012 version) was evaluated using streamflow data (1976–2006), and assessed the potential impacts of climate change driven by projections from ten global climate models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) on future streamflow (2010-2039), (2040-2069) and (2070-2099) at the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia. The model efficiency during calibration and validation, with coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-sutcliffe efficiency (NS), Percent Bias (PBIAS) and Root mean square error-standard deviation ratio (RSR) is 0.67, 0.62, -5.4 and 0.64; and 0.64, 0.61, -4.2 and 0.65, respectively. This shows that SWAT coupled with GIS extension is a good tool for continuous simulation. Future streamflow is projected to decrease in all future periods during main and off-seasons. However, the changes would be more pronounced during the off-season period with a significant decrease of -9.14 % under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5). Therefore, the Basin may likely to experience tremendous pressure in the late century due to low streamflow, particularly during the off-season months.

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach

Local-scale climate change adaptation is receiving more attention to reduce the adverse effects of climate change. The process of developing adaptation measures at local-scale (e.g., river basins) requires high-quality climate information with higher resolution. Climate projections are available at a coarser spatial resolution from Global Climate Models (GCMs) and require spatial downscaling and bias correction to drive hydrological models. We used the hybrid multiple linear regression and stochastic weather generator model (Statistical Down-Scaling Model, SDSM) to develop a location-based climate projection, equivalent to future station data, from GCMs. Meteorological data from 24 ground stations and the most accurate satellite and reanalysis products identified for the region, such as Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data were used. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of the projected climate on hydrology. Both SDSM and SWAT were calibrated and validated using the observed climate and streamflow data, respectively. Climate projection based on SDSM, in one of the large and agricultural intensive basins in Ethiopia (i.e., Awash), show high variability in precipitation but an increase in maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature, which agrees with global warming. On average, the projection shows an increase in annual precipitation (>10%), Tmax (>0.4 °C), Tmin (>0.2 °C) and streamflow (>34%) in the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070), and 2080s (2071–2100) under RCP2.6-RCP8.5. Although no significant trend in precipitation is found, streamflow during March–May and June–September is projected to increase throughout the 21 century by an average of more than 1.1% and 24%, respectively. However, streamflow is projected to decrease during January–February and October–November by more than 6%. Overall, considering the projected warming and changes in seasonal flow, local-scale adaptation measures to limit the impact on agriculture, water and energy sectors are required.

Hydrological Model for Derbendi-Khan Dam Reservoir Watershed Using SWAT Model

In this study, the watershed’s runoff of Derbendi-Khan dam reservoir within the upper part of Diyala River reach the northeast of Iraq was modeled by Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration and validation were based on monthly measured inflow to the dam reservoir. They extended for a period between 1979 and 2008 with a warm-up period of two years, twenty-year for calibration, and eight-year for validation. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI2) automatic calibration algorithm method used for model calibration and sensitivity analysis. Results demonstrate that the model performance for the studied watershed which is evaluated, with many statistical criteria, was very good. The sensitivity analysis pointed parameters (CH_K2, CN2 ALPHA_BF, SFTMP, SOL_AWC, and CH_N2) are the most useful parameters on runoff calibration for the studied watershed. Moreover, it was found that the average annual areal snowmelt ratio to the average annual areal precipitation during the simulation period is approximately 24%.

Assessing the impact of seasonal-rainfall anomalies on catchment-scale water balance components

Abstract. Although water balance components at the catchment scale are strongly related to annual rainfall, the availability of water resources in Mediterranean catchments also depends on rainfall seasonality. Observed seasonal anomalies in historical records are fairly episodic, but an increase in their frequency might exacerbate water deficit or water excess if the rainy season shortens or extends its duration, e.g., due to climate change. This study evaluates the sensitivity of water yield, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge to changes in rainfall seasonality by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model applied to the upper Alento River catchment (UARC) in southern Italy, where a long time series of daily rainfall is available from 1920 to 2018. We compare two distinct approaches: (i) a “static” approach, where three seasonal features (namely rainy, dry, and transition fixed-duration 4-month seasons) are identified through the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and (ii) a “dynamic” approach based on a stochastic framework, where the duration of two seasons (rainy and dry seasons) varies from year to year according to a probability distribution. Seasonal anomalies occur when the transition season is replaced by the rainy or dry season in the first approach and when season duration occurs in the tails of its normal distribution in the second approach. Results are presented within a probabilistic framework. We also show that the Budyko curve is sensitive to the rainfall seasonality regime in UARC by questioning the implicit assumption of a temporal steady state between annual average dryness and the evaporative index. Although the duration of the rainy season does not exert a major control on water balance, we were able to identify season-dependent regression equations linking water yield to the dryness index in the rainy season.

Development of a mapping framework for ecosystem services: The case of sediment control supply at a watershed scale in Newfoundland, Canada

Abstract Mapping the supply of ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for communicating the importance of ESs to policy makers and to demonstrate that sustainable development is being applied with due diligence by forest managers. ES mapping facilitates the integration of ES assessments into the decision-making process. To that end, the main objective of this study was to provide a mapping framework for a specific water-related regulating ES – the sediment control service (SCS) – developed for a forest-dominated watershed in western Newfoundland, Canada (640 km2). The mapping framework proposes the development of composite indicators (referred to as an index), based on a proxy variables causal relationship approach, which is less complex to implement than physical models and less subjective than expert opinions. Two composite indicators used to rank sub-watersheds on a relative scale were developed: one using equal weights among proxies and a second using expert opinion to assign weights to proxies. The use of an index for mapping addresses the multidimensional and complex nature of ESs. The proxy variables represent ecosystem function indicators (FI) that are necessary to describe the causal relationship between ecological functions and SCS. The validation of ESs map results is often lacking in the literature. Therefore, we propose comparing the SCS relative scales with a sediment-yield classification that is simulated using the hydrological model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool). To that end, the semi-distributed hydrological SWAT model has been developed. The overall agreement of the classification ranged from 35 to 81% depending upon the timeframe and weighting schemes that were applied, with better results being obtained for periods with more forest management operations and the expert-based weighting scheme. Results of the framework implementation show the potential supply of SCS at a sub-watershed scale and highlight those sub-watersheds most likely to be affected by forest management operations.

Mining activity impacts on soil erodibility and reservoirs silting: Evaluation of mining decommissioning strategies

This study focuses on the nexus between coal mining and water storage, analyzing the strategies to reduce the negative effects of exhausted/abandoned mining sites on catchments where water reservoirs are located.Sediment management represent a key point to promote sustainable water resources development and it is strictly connected with the proper management of land use change, especially in the areas devoted to mining activities. The presence of a reservoir represents a major challenge because these structures are threatened by the rapid loss of storage volume due to excessive sedimentation.The case of San Cipriano reservoir in central Italy represents an ideal set to explore the effects of mining on water storage because it is located at the outlet of a catchment strongly influenced by one of the most important lignite mine in central Italy. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to evaluate different scenarios of mine decommissioning, aiming at supporting the identification of the best strategies to avoid reservoir sedimentation. Two scenarios of environmental restoration of the mining area are evaluated. In the first case, the ongoing reforestation with native plants like oaks and deciduous trees is analyzed. In the second scenario the authors focus on the evaluation of a wider landscape restoration project (including reforestation and river bodies rehabilitation) recently drafted by local institutions.The results provide a quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of the proposed strategies in reducing the impacts of existing mining sites from a hydrological perspective. In particular, the analyzed scenarios show that afforestation and river restoration lead to a strong reduction of sediment yield while downward trend occurred for water yield.

Evaluating a parsimonious watershed model versus SWAT to estimate streamflow, soil loss and river contamination in two case studies in Tietê river basin, São Paulo, Brazil

Study regionThe Atibaia and Jacaré-Guaçu watersheds from the Tietê river basin, São Paulo, Brazil. Study focusThis study aims to compare estimates of flow, sediment yield and nutrients loads obtained from two distinct models with different structures and degree of complexity. The Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We are particularly interested in understanding under which conditions the use of each model is to be recommended, namely when does the addition effort required to run the SWAT model leads to effective better results. As SWAT’s calibration procedure is cumbersome, the advantage of using a more detailed and distributed model fails to materialize when detailed data are not available or when monthly estimates are enough. GWLF model provides useful results with a reduced data gathering and calibration effort. New hydrological insights of the regionThe joint calibration of both models to two watersheds offered a robust set of parameter values for prevalent conditions of Tiête river basin given the existing data set, although not all modelled variables are reproduced accurately. The performance of both models is adequate when estimating streamflow at a monthly time, but decreases when estimating daily flow, sediment yield, and nutrients loads. The poor monitoring of sediments and nutrients concentration hinders the ability to fully calibrate the model’s water quality component.

Relative contribution of evapotranspiration and soil compaction to the fluctuation of catchment discharge: case study from a plantation landscape

ABSTRACT Over the last decade, monoculture plantations have rapidly developed in Jambi Province on Sumatra, Indonesia. Meanwhile, there has been intensification of discharge fluctuation in the study area. We examined the relative contribution of changes in evapotranspiration and soil compaction to the catchment discharge by using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. Evapotranspiration values based on the catchment water balance analysis in intensively cultivated oil palm plantations, smallholder oil palm plantations, rubber plantations, and the secondary forest are 5.03 ± 0.30, 4.11 ± 0.38, 3.36 ± 0.32, and 4.50 ± 0.18 mm d−1, respectively. Infiltration rate in active interrows of oil palm, rubber plantations, agroforest, oil palm frond pile is 2.6 ± 1.7, 16.3 ± 6.8, 28.0 ± 3.9, 58.2 ± 21.8 cm h−1, respectively. We found that increased evapotranspiration and soil compaction increased the frequency of low discharge by 30%, with increased evapotranspiration contributing 10% and increased soil compaction contributing 20%.

A convex distribution of vegetation along a stony soil slope due to subsurface flow in the semiarid Loess Plateau, northwest China

Soil water-vegetation interactions have been a research topic for decades. Landscape patterns can be shaped by soil water availability, and in reverse. The effects of subsurface flow on the soil water – vegetation interactions are relatively less studied than the surface flow, especially in the semiarid region. This work is focused on how the larch (Larix principis-rupprechtti) interacted with soil water, and how the convex pattern of the larch was formed along the stony soil slope in the semiarid Loess Plateau, northwest China. The soil water balance equation in Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified to include subsurface flow exchange between two adjacent hydrologic response units (HRUs). The slope was then delineated into adjacent HRUs to understand the hydrologic and ecological processes inside the slope. The modified SWAT model on the slope was calibrated and validated by the field data. The model was forced by a 55-year meteorological data series to investigate the larch-soil water interactions and the formation of the convex distribution pattern over long term. It is found that the subsurface flow has shaped the convex distribution of vegetation LAI along the slope. The subsurface flow occurs due to relatively high permeability of the stony soil, and it affects the heterogeneities of soil water availability through the soil water storage capacity. The concave spatial pattern of the soil water stress determines the vegetation growth along the slope in this semiarid region. These understandings provide new knowledge about the influences of hydrological processes on vegetation distribution patterns along a slope, which is useful in vegetation management under similar conditions.

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

In the 21st century, heavier rainfall events and warmer temperatures in mountainous regions have significant impacts on hydrological processes and the occurrence of flood/drought extremes. Long-term modeling and peak flow detection of streamflow series are crucial in understanding the behavior of flood and drought. This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of future climate change on extreme flows in the Kaidu River Basin, northwestern China. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. The projected future precipitation and temperature under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the validated SWAT model. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed to assess the probability distribution of flood events. The modeling results showed that the simulated discharge well matched the observed ones both in the calibration and validation periods. Comparing with the historical period, the ensemble with 15 general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the annual precipitation will increase by 7.9–16.1% in the future, and extreme precipitation events will increase in winter months. Future temperature will increase from 0.42 °C/10 a to 0.70 °C/10 a. However, with respect to the hydrological response to climate change, annual mean runoff will decrease by 21.5–40.0% under the mean conditions of the four RCP scenarios. A reduction in streamflow will occur in winter, while significantly increased discharge will occur from April to May. In addition, designed floods for return periods of five, 10 and 20 years in the future, as predicted by the GEV distribution, will decrease by 3–20% over the entire Kaidu watershed compared to those in the historical period. The results will be used to help local water resource management with hazard warning and flood control.

Quantifying the relationship between streamflow and climate change in a small basin under future scenarios

Abstract Previous studies have identified the importance of simulating and quantifying the relationship between hydrologic variation and climate change under historical scenarios at regional and continental scales. However, robust demonstration of the potential of combining consistent land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change to simulate future hydrologic processes is still lacking. Furthermore, investigating the future connections between hydrologic characteristics and climate variables demands exploration of these phenomena at small (basin) scale. To fill this gap, this research simulates land use/cover patterns in 2030 based on the logistic Cellular Automata-Markov model. Then the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulates change in streamflow within the Ashuelot River basin in New England between 2002–2009 and 2032–2039. Projected climate data are obtained from two general circulation models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. We also quantify relationships between the rates of change (RC) of streamflow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) among 29 subbasins at a monthly scale between the two time periods under different climate scenarios by implementing a panel data approach. Results show greatest changes in forestland (−21.07 km2) and intensive urban land (+5.4 km2) by 2030. Comparisons between the two periods show a negative overall trend in runoff under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for both selected GCMs. Panel data analysis indicates that precipitation may contribute more to the RC of streamflow when change in streamflow is significantly influenced by both PET and precipitation over the study period. Therefore, this study provides an important insight into quantifying and comparing the relationship of basin-scale change between streamflow and future climate.