In order to reveal the cracking mechanism of surface soil layer caused by coal seam mining, and explore theoretical methods for predicting the development depth of downward fractures during mining. Based on the background of the No. 1–2 upper coal seam mining in Daliuta Coal Mine, combining with fracture mechanics, soil mechanics, physical similarity simulation and numerical calculation methods. The mining-induced cracking mechanism and criterion of surface soil layer were analyzed, the crack development pattern and expansion mechanism were revealed, and the prediction formula of downward crack development depth of surface soil layer was put forward. The research results show that surface cracks mainly occur in the tensile zone, the concentrated tensile stress produced by the subsidence of overburden in the tensile zone can lead to soil cracking. When the surface maximum horizontal tensile deformation exceeds the limit horizontal deformation of soil, the soil layer cracks, and the cracking criterion of the surface soil layer was given accordingly. The soil crack of coal seam mining belongs to the mixed mode crack, and the soil cracks tip starts cracking and expanding along the direction of the maximum principal stress, therefore, the initiation crack angle of soil crack tip was obtained, and the fracture criterion of soil crack was proposed. With the crack propagation and development, the microcosmic crack becomes the macroscopic downward fracture. When the horizontal stress of the soil decreases to the cohesive force of the soil, the downward fracture stops develop, and the calculation formula for the development depth of mining-induced downward fracture was proposed. The development and evolution law of downward fracture was revealed, after the surface cracks, with the advance of the longwall face, the downward crack continues to extend and develop to the deep. Downward fracture develops on the ground surface at the open cut side, the mined-out area and in front of the longwall face, the maximum development depth of downward fracture tends to be stable when the longwall face advances to a certain distance. According to the physical simulation, numerical calculation and theoretical calculation, the development depth of downward fracture in No 1–2 upper coal seam mining is 8.11 m, 8.21 m and 8.14 m respectively. The theoretical prediction formula is reliable, and the results can provide a new method for the research of the development depth of mining-induced surface downward fracture.