Socio-economic Systems Research Articles

METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR SECURITY-ORIENTED MANAGEMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC

In today's environment, socio-economic systems face increasingly complex challenges associated with high levels of uncertainty, risks, and rapid changes in the external environment. This necessitates the development of effective management methods that can ensure the reliability and flexibility of decision-making. The research is aimed at creating a methodology for the development and application of information technology for security-oriented management based on the principles of fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic, based on the theory of fuzzy sets developed by Lotfi Zadeh, is a powerful tool for working with incomplete and fuzzy data, allowing to model complex systems and processes where traditional approaches may be ineffective. The paper discusses the peculiarities of using fuzzy logic to create models that take into account possible risks and facilitate informed decision-making even with limited information. The proposed methodology allows to integrate various data sources, process them in real time and provide recommendations for risk management and security of socio-economic systems. The study also describes the structure of the technology, which includes the stages of data collection, fuzzification, fuzzy inference, defuzzification, and decision support. Systems based on fuzzy logic demonstrate high adaptability, resilience to change, and the ability to operate in the face of unpredictable changes. The results of the study confirm that the proposed information technology can be applied in various industries, such as transportation, healthcare, and industry, to improve the safety and efficiency of management decisions. The use of the proposed methodology helps to reduce risks, improve the quality of management and adaptability to changes in external conditions, which are key requirements in modern management.

Pluralist economics in an era of polycrisis

Interacting crises at economic, societal, ecological, and geopolitical levels reveal the fragility of connected global systems and give momentum to pluralist economic thinking as a suitable approach to address the complexity and uncertainty of today’s economy. This special issue (SI) explores how young economists, educated in this era, study economic phenomena through pluralist lenses. Due to the structure of interdependent crises and inherent uncertainty, pluralism of values, theory and methods may benefit the academic and policy debate on solutions for today’s political, social, and scientific challenges. Applied to the crisis context, this SI shows a range of research methods and interdisciplinary approaches, reflecting a shift in economic thinking that embraces the complexity, limited predictability, and fragility of socioeconomic systems. The SI aims to promote a dialogue across schools of economic thought to enhance our understanding and contribute to robust and inclusive policy.

Review of the Monograph “Strategizing of Digital Transformation of Complex Socio-Economic Systems”

Review of the Monograph “Strategizing of Digital Transformation of Complex Socio-Economic Systems”

Regional water cycle health evaluation and obstacle factor analysis: A case study of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province, China

Ecological and socioeconomic systems are interconnected through water cycles. Due to intensive anthropogenic activities and global climate change, the water cycle has undergone profound changes over the last few decades. This study aimed to evaluate the health status of the regional water cycle, explore the etiology of water cycle disorders, and provide suggestions for improving the health of the water cycle. Based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, an index system was constructed to evaluate regional water cycle health. The water cycle was evaluated using a random forest (RF) model, which can achieve desirable fitting and generalization properties. The Yellow River Basin in Henan Province (YRBHN), China, was used as an example to demonstrate the application of this system. An Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (EFAST)-Cloud model was used to validate the evaluation results of the RF model. The main influencing factors in the water cycle process were then identified using the obstacle degree model, and ensuing policy recommendations were presented. The results demonstrated that the health state of the water cycle in the YRBHN shifted from unhealthy to sub-healthy during 2011–2020, with the response layer showing the most evident positive change. The health states of Zhengzhou and Luoyang were superior to those of the other cities, with average health index numbers of 3.1006 and 3.0078, respectively. Although the evaluation index numbers of the EFAST-Cloud and RF models were slightly different, their evaluation results were similar, indicating that the RF model was applicable for water cycle health evaluation. The proportion of ecological water use and the response (R) layer provided the greatest obstacle degree in the index and criterion layers, respectively. Based on the current state of the water cycle in the YRBHN, some policy implications were proposed. This study proposed a new method for regional water cycle health evaluation and decision making that provides theoretical support for regional water resource management and is of considerable practical significance.

Introduction to the special issue on theorizing contemporary capitalism

While capitalism continues to be regarded as the dominant socioeconomic system globally, some observers have sought to show that recent economic and technological developments could pave the way for something new and potentially more destructive than capitalism itself. In this special issue, the persistence of capitalism is highlighted. It is treated as a dynamic system, capable of adapting to the different challenges thrown at it, be they economic, political, cultural, or technological. The different contributions take stock of capitalism's latest evolutionary tendencies and offer analyses which reflect two themes central to capitalism's theorization: its characterization and critique. In this introduction I preview each article in the light of those themes and identify the two overarching contributions this special issue makes to the theorization of contemporary capitalism.

Crisis Management in Socio-Economic Systems in the Context of Digitalization Using the Example of a “Smart City”

Crisis Management in Socio-Economic Systems in the Context of Digitalization Using the Example of a “Smart City”

Demographic Development of Russia within the Boundaries of Human Capital Theory: Problems and Solutions

The article outlines the role of the demographic situation in ensuring the development of the socio-economic system of the country. In the process of empirical research, the dynamics of the list of indicators characterizing the demographic situation in Russia is considered. The calculation of the absolute indicator of the population is presented, which allows to reveal of the numerical losses of human capital. The fact that the reduction of the country’s population was due to the population of rural areas was established. It is also noted that there was a constant increase in the number of population over working age, as well as a decrease in the working-age population. The decrease in the existing volumes of human capital has led to certain economic losses expressed in the form of lost GDP, which the socio-economic system has incurred. In the context of the above trends, the preservation of the existing human capital, which can be assessed on the basis of the dynamics of indicators: life expectancy and the number of marriages and divorces, becomes a priority. The processes of human capital reproduction represent one of the important directions of demographic development in Russia. The authors determined that these processes have a negatively directed tendency to change. This problem is considered from the position of the functioning of the family institution and the dynamics of the divorce process. An analytical study of statistical data allowed us to conclude that the intensity of marriages in Russia during ten years was higher than the intensity of divorces. The calculated value of the coefficient of preservation of family relations indicates an increase in the probability of reproduction of human capital. The authors calculated the numerical value of reserve human capital in the form of the volume of potential labor force, which can provide an additional volume of GDP.

Patterns and Trends in Northern Hemisphere River Ice Phenology from 2000 to 2021

River ice plays a crucial role in hydrology, ecosystems, and socio-economic systems in mid-to-high latitude regions. However, there is a notable gap in the analysis of patterns and trends in river ice phenologies and their influence factors at the river level. In this study, we developed a practical method to identify river ice phenologies by leveraging Landsat observations from 2000 to 2021, and established a comprehensive dataset encompassing 7970 river segments across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Our results revealed that the mean freeze-up date, break-up date, and ice duration for these river segments were October 24, May 4, and 192.1 days, respectively. Notably, 56% of the river segments exhibited a warming trend, with the average freeze-up date delayed by 2.7 days per decade, break-up date advanced by 2.5 days per decade, and ice duration shortened by 5.5 days per decade—nearly five times the documented decrease rate over the past 150 years. Furthermore, high-latitude polar regions and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau demonstrated the most pronounced decreases in ice duration, exceeding 7.0 days per decade on average. We observed a substantial relative contribution, reaching up to 70%, of surface air temperature (SAT) in middle and low latitude regions characterized by relatively high winter temperatures. However, as winter temperatures decrease, the relative influence of SAT diminishes, while the contributions of precipitation, solar radiation, and residuals increase. Our dataset provided essential baseline for further understanding the fundamental physical processes within river systems, offering crucial insights for river management, hydrological disaster risk control, climate change research, and ecosystem conservation efforts.

The making of government-business relationships through state rescaling: a policy analysis of China’s artificial intelligence industry

ABSTRACT Developing artificial intelligence (AI) is a priority on China’s state agenda, yet the constitutive state roles in AI development are understudied. Against the background of the coexistence of authoritarianism and market liberalism in the governance of the Chinese economy, state rescaling is a useful lens to understand how China is developing this new strategic sector. This paper proposes an analytical framework reifying vertical and horizontal scalar relations via the rescaling lens and three state roles (owner, promoter, and supervisor) to explore how government-business relationships are made. More than 100 Chinese AI policy documents have been collected from central, provincial, and city levels for a systematic multi-scalar policy analysis. As a result, this paper captures both downscaling/upscaling within the state hierarchy and statization/destatization between state and non-state actors in China’s AI development. A series of intertwined state rescaling practices manifest themselves in the state roles figuring in three functionalities of government-business relationships (sponsorship, cultivation, and disciplining). It is argued that the state roles are not pre-given modalities in a setting of a specific industry. The restructuring and even revolutionizing effects of AI in the socio-economic systems prompt non-state actors to respond proactively, which shapes the variegated functionalities of government-business relationships.

Coupling Coordination Relationship between Cultural Landscape Conservation and Socio-Economic System in Ethnic Villages of Southeast Guizhou

Amidst the transition from agriculture to tourism, ethnic villages are facing issues of “misalignment” and “disequilibrium” between economic growth and cultural heritage conservation. Previous research has often isolated the effects of cultural heritage conservation or socio-economic development, neglecting their reciprocal influences within the coupling coordination. This study addresses this gap by assessing 43 villages in Leishan County, quantifying the preservation status of the cultural landscape (PSCL) and socio-economic level (SEL) using a comprehensive evaluation model and revealing the coupling coordination relationship between PSCL and SEL in each village with the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. Spatial autocorrelation and the geographical detector model reveal the spatial agglomeration characteristics and influential factors of the CCD. The results highlight three findings. (1) The majority of villages (93%) are in a moderate imbalance stage or a serious imbalance stage, underscoring an urgent need for targeted policies. (2) Spatial autocorrelation analysis exposes significant clustering, with the northwest corner exhibiting the most pronounced high-value aggregation, which contrasts with the southern region’s low-value clustering. A ‘low–high’ clustering pattern is observed in the northern region, while the southwestern corner presents a ‘high–low’ distribution. (3) Key determinants affecting the CCD include the tourism revenue, tourist volume, resident participation in tourism, village hollowing level, and number of historical buildings. The interactions between driving factors show non-linear and two-factor enhancement effects. This study concludes with policy recommendations advocating for context-specific strategies to enhance the CCD, emphasizing the importance of aligning cultural preservation with economic progress in ethnic villages.

Mapping and assessing drought losses in China: A process-based framework analysis

Drought has exerted significant impacts on socio-economic systems in China, yet accurately estimating its direct economic loss remains challenging. The main constraint lies in establishing a robust relationship between drought events and associated losses, compounded by insufficient loss data. To address this gap, we developed a set of annual gridded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and applied to a process-based sigmoidal type of drought loss function. The pioneering effort produced the first gridded dataset of drought-induced economic losses for 1991 to 2016, offering valuable insights for the previously unrecorded period from 1991 to 2001. The sigmoidal curve fits well in most provinces, with R2 values exceeding 0.5, and higher accuracy observed before 2010, indicating a certain level of the model's credibility before 2002. The estimated losses ranged from 3.91 billion CNY in 1991 to 22.02 billion CNY in 1999, thereby filling the statistical gap and providing critical reference information for 1991 to 2001 in China. Spatial analysis revealed a pronounced pattern of elevated losses per unit area in southern and eastern China, aligns closely with GDP distribution and demarcated by the Hu Line. This correlation underscores the significant influence of economic development on drought losses. This study also highlights the necessity of integrating policy measures into drought loss assessments to account for the impacts of adaptation and mitigation strategies. This integration is essential for enhancing the accuracy of drought-related hazards assessments and facilitating more strategic adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

Сценарное моделирование протестного потенциала на основе событийной идентификации динамики факторов

In this study, we present a scenario-based approach to investigate the protest potential in society using mathematical tools from graph theory and simulation modeling. The research objective. The research aims to construct a cognitive map that reflects key factors, such as population deprivation levels, overall well-being, social fears, trust in authority, social expectations, and stability of social structures. Materials and methods. The model of functional oriented graphs, which in turn is a development of the classical cognitive model, is used as a metamathematical apparatus in the study. In the software implementation, the method of linear regression data analysis was used to calculate e-scenarios for the behavior of vertices. Results. We report the results of a scenario analysis of the developed model, obtaining forecasted scenarios of the dynamics of society’s protest potential under various conditions and influences. At the core of this research is the examination of a complex system’s possible response to external destructive impacts, and we propose a set of measures to counteract these influences on societal dynamics. The scenario methodology combines graph theory for representing complex relationships between key factors and simulation modeling for predicting potential developmental scenarios. Conducting this study required modifying the traditional mathematical apparatus of cognitive modeling. We developed methods and algorithms for scenario-event identification of the model’s significant factors’ behavior and utilizing the results of such identification when forming complex functional relationships in the scenario model. In generating scenarios, the range of events is significantly expanded compared to traditional cognitive modeling approaches, which could have been overlooked but may be crucial for situational analysis. Conclusion. The scenario modeling technology presented in the work is implemented in the appropriate software and analytical complex, the purpose of which is to automate the processes of scenario research of socio-economic and political systems.

Coordination analysis and evaluation of population, water resources, economy, and ecosystem coupling in the Tuha region of China

The non-coordination between the socio-economic systems and ecosystems of a region is a crucial obstacle to sustainable development. To reveal the relationships between complex urban systems and achieve the goal of sustainable and coordinated urban development, we constructed a coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) and coupling angle model (CAM) and analyzed the degree of coupling coordination and evolution process among the population, water resources, economy, and ecology (PWEE) system of the Tuha region for 2005–2020. The results indicated that: (1) During 2005–2020, the comprehensive development index (CDI) of the population, water resources and economy subsystems was 0.21–0.65, with the three subsystems portraying an overall increase; the average values of the RSEI at five-year intervals were 0.29, 0.28, 0.28, and 0.26, indicating a downward trend in the environmental quality. (2) The coupling coordination effect of the PWEE system portrayed a low level; the coupling coordination degree (CCD) values were 0.28–0.58, portraying a fluctuating upward trend. The level of CCD increased from low disorder to marginal coordination. (3) The PWEE system’s scissor difference reflects large evolutionary characteristics. The ecological support capacity was not observed until the late stage. We conclude that the PWEE composite system of the region is in a stage of disordered development. These findings significantly bolster the theoretical underpinnings of sustainable development studies, offering essential scientific theories and methodological frameworks for crafting sustainable development policies tailored to urban systems in the Tuha region.

Analysis of the Management of Protected Areas in Galapagos: 60 Years after Its Declaration as a National Park

The Galapagos Islands are one of the most emblematic protected areas on the planet and also one of the most studied. Their main economic activity is tourism, which has grown rapidly in recent years. The increase in tourists is associated with the increase in population and the introduction of invasive species, which puts conservation at risk. This makes adequate management even more necessary and relevant on an international scale since the economy of Galapagos depends on the good state of conservation of its ecosystems and species. Numerous studies have shown that social factors, rather than physical–natural ones, determine the success or failure of a marine protected area (MPA), so they must be urgently incorporated into all phases of MPA management. In this study, we analyzed the management of the protected areas of Galapagos, including the National Park and the Marine Reserve, with the purpose of highlighting their weaknesses and strengths. The methodology used presents five prescribed scenarios in which priority is given to one or other factors, each of which has an impact on the biophysical and socio-economic systems that are influenced by the MPA. These scenarios were called proactive, interactive, centralized, learning, and formal management. Data were obtained through a comprehensive literature review and primary data collection methods, including in-depth interviews with key stakeholders and DPNG managers, as well as direct observations. Interviewees covered the main relevant sectors in the archipelago (fishing, tourism, and conservation). The results show that the archipelago’s protected areas follow a proactive management model with a continuous feedback loop. This feedback is a key element in any adaptive management process, which also allows practitioners to anticipate future problems. Both public participation and strategic planning are essential.

Optimizing Ghana’s Socioeconomic Metabolism Amid Urbanization from 2000 to 2019: An Emergy Synthesis

This study assessed Ghana’s sustainability from 2000 to 2019 using emergy synthesis. This research study also explored the relationship between changes in Ghana’s socioeconomic metabolism and the expansion of urban areas. The results showed a significant increase of 126% in total emergy use during the study period. This increase was mainly due to a rise in import emergy, which went up from 2.90% to 37.47%, while Ghana’s self-sufficiency capacity decreased from 97.10% to 62.53%. This shift in total emergy utilization indicates that Ghana’s socioeconomic system is transitioning from relying heavily on indigenous resources to increasingly depending on purchased resources to drive economic growth. The emergy sustainability index (EmSI) suggests that Ghana’s socioeconomic system is resource-consuming and has low system performance. To address this situation, this study recommends restructuring Ghana’s socioeconomic system to optimize its indigenous renewable resources while reducing import dependency and environmental stress. Expanding urban areas contributes to resource consumption, especially refined fuels and construction materials. This underscores the importance of urban policies that take into account changes in socioeconomic metabolism as a reference for effective urban land administration.

Metamodern economy: Between war and peace

Man's economic activity and his worldview are closely interrelated, and this relationship has attracted the attention of philosophers and scientists for centuries. When making economic decisions, a person entered into relations of cooperation, collaboration and/or competition and even war. Since ancient times, war was used by man as a tool for resolving economic conflicts and achieving economic interests and evolved along with the development of socio-economic systems and the worldview of man himself. The economic worldview and socio-economic systems, in turn, evolve under the influence of the development of economic activity, philosophical knowledge, science and technology. In the development of mankind, we can distinguish eras of dominance of a certain philosophical paradigm (classicism, modernity, postmodernity, metamodernity), which determined the worldview of people, the “spirit of the times”, as well as their economic activities, the choice of tools for resolving economic conflicts and achieving economic interests, including characteristics and distinctive features of wars. Since in the modern global world of the metamodern era, military conflicts have a significant impact on the economic decisions of economic entities, identifying the distinctive features of modern wars in conjunction with the philosophy of metamodernism is relevant. The purpose of the study is to identify the distinctive characteristics of war as an economic instrument in each of the above-mentioned eras in conjunction with the dominant philosophical paradigm and the characteristics of the socio-economic systems of the parties to military conflicts, as well as to substantiate the key features of war in the modern metamodern era. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were solved: a comparative historical and economic analysis of the wars of the eras of classicism, modernity, postmodernity, and metamodernity was be carried out; differences between them were identified according to a number of criteria. The relationship between the characteristics of wars and the dominant philosophical paradigm were identified. The role of war in the economy of metamodernity was determined. The research methodology was based on a synthesis of historical and economic methodology, a systemic economic approach, and comparative analysis, which determined the novelty of the research results: the rationale for the relationship of war as a tool for solving economic conflicts and/or realizing economic interests with the dominant philosophical paradigm.

Revealing the heterogeneity of socio-economic impacts on resource-environmental pressure: A novel three-dimensional framework applied to the Yellow River Basin

Assessing resource-environmental pressure and exploring its driving mechanisms are key to the sustainable management of resources and the promotion of high-quality development. To quantify the resource-environmental pressure and analyze the driving factor responses in the process of socio-economic development, an integrated Assessment-Identification-Analysis framework is proposed. First, footprint family models were used to assess the ecological pressure, water ecological pressure, carbon emission pressure, and synthesized resource-environmental pressure. Subsequently, the imbalanced relationship between resource-environmental improvements and socio-economic development was quantitatively identified using K-means cluster analysis. The response relationship between resource-environmental pressures and different socio-economic system factors, such as population, affluence, resource utilization, and technological progress, was further analyzed in combination with the STIRPAT model for provinces with underdeveloped resource-environmental systems. Finally, a case study of nine provinces in China’s Yellow River Basin was conducted. The main results are as follows: (a) The overall resource-environmental pressure index (REPI) of the nine provinces shows an increasing trend, with the upstream provinces demonstrate superior REPI compared to midstream and downstream provinces. Furthermore, three provinces maintain a multi-year average REPI surpassing the threshold of 0.6. (b) A majority of the regions within the Yellow River Basin suffer from an imbalance between resource-environmental management and socio-economic development. Among them, Ningxia, Shanxi, Henan, and Shandong have underdeveloped resource-environmental systems. (c) Population size, demographic structure, and economic level have a consistent contributing effect on REPI in the four provinces. Energy consumption structure and technological progress have spatial heterogeneity. The findings of the study can provide valuable insights for the implementation of regional high-quality development strategies and the realization of sustainable resource utilization.

GCAM–GLORY v1.0: representing global reservoir water storage in a multi-sector human–Earth system model

Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.

Impact of transport and logistics services on transformation of regional economic system

Transformational changes arise as a result of the impact of internal and external factors on the socio-economic system of the region. In the current economic conditions, transport and logistics services have an impact on the movement of resources and human capital and contribute to the intensification of production and market processes in the subjects of the country.

Characteristics of the Basic Socio-Economic Factors of the Development of Small Towns in Russia

Currently, small towns in Russia are going through a difficult period due to changes in the economic situation, demographic trends and financial constraints. These factors have a significant impact on the lives of citizens and require in-depth study and analysis. The purpose of the study is to identify the general features of small forms of settlement as part of the regional socio-economic system for the further development of proposals for the formation of specific measures for the socio-economic development of small towns. The research was conducted on a sample of data from 82 regions of Russia for 2018–2022 according to 11 statistical hypotheses. The work used modern methods of statistical analysis, including testing the normality of distribution (ShapiroWilk statistics), equality of variances (Livigne criterion) and the method of statistical testing of hypotheses based on the Mann-Whitney test. Calculations were performed in the Python software environment using the NumPy and Pandas libraries for data preprocessing and SciPy and XlsxWriter for statistical analysis and export results. The following socio-economic indicators are considered: average per capita cash income of the population, gross regional product and investment in fixed capital per capita, average turnover of organizations and the share of the population with cash income below the subsistence level. It is shown that, within the framework of the existing administrative structure of regional governance, regions with different levels of urbanization have statistically significant differences in these indicators. At the same time, no such differences were found in relation to indicators such as expenditures and revenues of consolidated budgets per person, the total area of residential premises per inhabitant on average, the fertility rate, the population maturity index and the dynamics of population change over 10 years (2012-2022 inclusive).