Societal Risk Research Articles

Vulnerability assessment of English and Welsh coastal areas

The escalating threat of climate change has placed global coastal communities at risk, with rising sea levels and intensified storm events presenting unprecedented challenges. Coastal vulnerability assessments, conducted every 3–5 years, are crucial. This empirical study assesses the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the distinct coastal contexts of Dawlish, Happisburgh (England), and Aberystwyth (Wales). The CVI method consists of the Physical Coastal Vulnerability Index (PCVI) and the Economic Coastal Vulnerability Index (ECVI), which provide a multidimensional assessment of vulnerability for coastal zones. This integrated index allows for a nuanced evaluation of vulnerability, distinguishing between sites based on various factors. Additionally, this study conducted a correlation analysis to understand the associations between the parameters. The findings demonstrate that physical features like beach and dune widths significantly impact a location’s natural defences, and economic factors such as property values and population density are equally crucial in determining societal risks and potential financial repercussions. The Combined Coastal Vulnerability Index (CCVI) results confirm the effectiveness of incorporating a diverse range of variables. Despite its substantial economic value, it reveals that Dawlish requires targeted protective measures, whereas Happisburgh needs an increased focus on its most vulnerable sectors. Aberystwyth emerges as the area with the highest overall vulnerability, underscoring the need for comprehensive coastal management practices. The study’s conclusions emphasize the essential role of adaptive, integrated management strategies in enhancing coastal resilience against the complex threats posed by climate dynamics. Moving forward, the indices established herein advocate for their use in strategic planning and policymaking to strengthen coastal regions in the face of sea-level rise and climatic variability. This investigation lays the groundwork for future research, aimed at refining and expanding these methodologies, aspiring to develop a detailed national coastal vulnerability atlas, a critical tool for informed decision-making and safeguarding at-risk communities.

Value Alignment Without Institutional Change Cannot Prevent the Societal Risks of Artificial Intelligence

Value Alignment Without Institutional Change Cannot Prevent the Societal Risks of Artificial Intelligence

Advanced cryopreservation as an emergent and convergent technological platform

Advanced cryopreservation technologies have the potential to transform organ transplants, biomedical research, food storage, aquaculture, biodiversity repositories, ecological restoration, and numerous other applications. These surpass the capability of existing cryopreservation technologies to extend the life and viability of biological materials at various scales from cells to tissues, organs, and entire organisms. In this article, we demonstrate why innovations in advanced cryopreservation, which we analyze as emergent, convergent platform technologies, raise novel concerns for research ethics and coordination, governance, and equitable access to benefits. As emerging technologies, they may disrupt markets or destabilize social institutions, including the systems that govern the distribution of organs for transplant. As convergent technologies, their impact will be heightened through interaction with other technologies. The technologies that may intensify the social and ethical effects of advanced cryopreservation include information technologies that permit the administration of complex logistics of storage and transport, biotechnologies for the management of floral and faunal species and populations, and 3D printing technologies that may enable the development and distribution of customizable peripheral components of this platform technology. The speed of development among diverse applications of the core platform is likely to vary between sectors in ways that are responsive to public support as well as to ethical constraints, and advancements in any sector will affect the achievement of reliability for the core technology across sectors. We recommend that societal benefits and risks be assessed both in the specific contexts for which peripheral components are developed and for the core technology.

Research on identification and zoning control of territorial spatial risk pattern based on deep learning: A case study of Shenzhen, China

In the era of globalization, digitalization, and diversification, currently societal cities face risks intertwined by uncertainty and complexity. Thus, it is crucial to address risks concerns to achieve modernization of spatial management. Moreover, how to scientifically identify the risk pattern of territorial space and how to map and control it in space becomes a critical and urgent issue to be addressed for achieving modernization of spatial management. Understanding the intricate relationship between land use, environmental factors, and population density is essential for identifying risk patterns that can inform effective disaster management strategies. By employing advanced analytical methods, this study aims to provide a comprehensive framework for recognizing and mitigating territorial spatial risks in an increasingly complex urban landscape. This study used a case study to conduct the unsupervised algorithm of stack autoencoder self-organizing map to analyze the distribution and spatial clustering of Shenzhen's land spatial risk pattern and reveal the driving mechanism of its risk pattern formation in detail. It was found that: (1) The overall territorial spatial risk pattern of Shenzhen presents a distribution trend of "high in the west and low in the east, high in the south and low in the north"; that is, I and II risk areas are clustered in the hilly areas in the northeast and IV and V risk areas in the coastal areas in the southwest; (2) Population density, land use intensity, seawater intrusion, geological disasters, relief amplitude, soil type, soil erosion intensity are the main driving forces for the formation of Shenzhen's territorial spatial risk pattern. In particular, seawater intrusion, population density and land use intensity, soil type were found having significantly synergistic impact on the risk pattern.

Twentieth century extreme precipitation detected in a high-resolution, coastal lake-sediment record from California

AbstractCalifornia faces increasing economic and societal risks from extreme precipitation and flooding associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) under projected twenty-first century climate warming. Lake sediments can retain signals of past extreme precipitation events, allowing reconstructions beyond the period of instrumental records. Here, we calibrate AR-related extreme precipitation from the last century to proxy data from lake sediments collected in the latitudinal zone of the highest frequency landfall for modern ARs in California. Excursions in erosional proxy data (Ti/Al) are positively and significantly correlated (rmedian = 0.45, pmedian = 0.04) with modern records of integrated vapor transport (IVT, kg m−1 s−1), a key metric of AR intensity, using correlations that incorporate age-model uncertainty. Despite the land-use change near the study site, the data suggest intense and long-lasting AR storms are identifiable in this sedimentary record. These results allow conservative inferences concerning past extreme hydrology at this site.

Joining forces to accelerate cancer and NCD prevention in Europe

Abstract JA PreventNCD, a Joint Action to prevent cancer and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) aims to assist authorities in prioritizing the most effective prevention strategies and policies to reduce the burden of cancer and NCDs, focusing on both personal and societal risk factors. A key objective is to tackle social inequalities by addressing the root causes of NCD risk factors and adopting a life-course approach. Recognizing that health is created by policies in several sectors is key when addressing health determinants, including social and commercial determinants of health. Consolidated efforts across countries will be required to tackle some of these determinants. To achieve the project’s objectives, the JA PreventNCD will build a comprehensive European infrastructure for monitoring risk factors, disease burden, and the impact of policies and interventions. Rigorous evaluation will ensure that the project’s deliverables will have an impact at local, national and EU levels. Three technical work packages address common risk factors for NCDs through actions ranging from policies and structural measures at societal level to interventions targeting individuals. Another set of cross-cutting work packages address monitoring, social inequalities, and health in all policies. More than 100 partners across 25 countries are involved, with almost 100 pilots to be conducted over the course of the project’s four years. One way of ensuring sustainability of the project’s outcomes is the building of a sustainable governance structure through the establishment of an EU Consortium on Cancer Prevention. Furthermore, as a mechanism to ensure high policy relevance of this JA, a Policy Decision Maker’s Forum will be established to engage policymakers and ensure feasibility of the project’s recommended actions. Speakers/Panelists Claudia Habl Austrian National Public Health Institute, Vienna, Austria Ane Fullaondo Biosistemak, Bilbao, Spain Arnfinn Helleve Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway

Societal and Structural Risks of Biometric ID: Towards People’s Right to Privacy

Societal and Structural Risks of Biometric ID: Towards People’s Right to Privacy

Atlas of AI Risks: Enhancing Public Understanding of AI Risks

The prevailing methodologies for visualizing AI risks have focused on technical issues such as data biases and model inaccuracies, often overlooking broader societal risks like job loss and surveillance. Moreover, these visualizations are typically designed for tech-savvy individuals, neglecting those with limited technical skills. To address these challenges, we propose the Atlas of AI Risks—a narrative-style tool designed to map the broad risks associated with various AI technologies in a way that is understandable to non-technical individuals as well. To both develop and evaluate this tool, we conducted two crowdsourcing studies. The first, involving 40 participants, identified the design requirements for visualizing AI risks for decision-making and guided the development of the Atlas. The second study, with 140 participants reflecting the US population in terms of age, sex, and ethnicity, assessed the usability and aesthetics of the Atlas to ensure it met those requirements. Using facial recognition technology as a case study, we found that the Atlas is more user-friendly than a baseline visualization, with a more classic and expressive aesthetic, and is more effective in presenting a balanced assessment of the risks and benefits of facial recognition. Finally, we discuss how our design choices make the Atlas adaptable for broader use, allowing it to generalize across the diverse range of technology applications represented in a database that reports various AI incidents.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Efficacy of Antimicrobial Chemoprophylaxis for Recurrent Acute Otitis Media in Children.

Acute otitis media (AOM) is a common childhood infection. Recurrent AOM affects a subset of children, resulting in an adverse impact on quality of life, socioeconomic disadvantage, and risk of long-term sequelae. Antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis is used in some settings but is increasingly controversial due to an awareness of adverse long-term effects and contribution to global antibiotic resistance. A comprehensive literature search was undertaken using Medline (1946-October 2023) and Embase (1974-October 2023). The primary aim was to assess the efficacy of antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis on AOM episodes in children < 18 years of age. Bias and quality assessment was performed. Dichotomous data were analysed using risk ratio with 95% confidence intervals. Meta-analysis was carried out using random-effects models for pooled analysis, independent of heterogeneity. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 statistic. The effect of antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis in children with rAOM on the number of individual AOM episodes. assessment of antimicrobial agents and outcomes in children with risk factors. Assessment of qualitative data was performed on 20 studies (n = 2210). No controlled trials were identified post-multivalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, restricting current generalisability. Quantitative meta-analysis on nine pre-PCV studies (n = 1087) demonstrated antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis reduced any episode of AOM with a risk ratio 0.59 (95% CI 0.45-0.77). Families and clinicians must balance marginal short-medium term benefit (based on pre-PCV data), and the potential for adverse effects to that individual, and the societal risk of antimicrobial resistance with prolonged antibiotic use.

Psychomodulatory substances: New legislative framework for control of psychoactive substances in Czechia

This article challenges drug prohibition advocated by UN conventions as the prevailing regulatory model for psychoactive substances, highlighting its ineffectiveness, harmfulness and outdated nature. At the same time, the conventions exclude some psychoactive substances from international regulation, leaving control to individual countries. Presenting an innovative approach, this article outlines an approach to the legal regulation of psychomodulatory substances (psychoactive substances with low health and societal risk) in non-medical contexts. Acknowledging the potential benefits of such psychoactive substances and balancing them with potential harms, it suggests stringent rules for marketing, safety, and preventing sales to minors. This approach aims to quell illicit markets, safeguard vulnerable populations, and encourage controlled use. Through a case study of the Czech Republicʼs introduction of a new category of psychomodulatory substances, this article showcases a paradigm shift from the prevailing repressive approach to drug regulation. This adaptive model effectively navigates the regulatory void, offering a viable alternative to the UNʼs prohibition framework.

Evaluation of flood metrics across the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin and their relation to flood damages.

Societal risks from flooding are evident at a range of spatial scales and climate change will exacerbate these risks in the future. Assessing flood risks across broad geographical regions is a challenge, and often done using streamflow time-series records or hydrologic models. In this study, we used a national-scale hydrological model to identify, assess, and map 16 different streamflow metrics that could be used to describe flood risks across 34,987 HUC12 subwatersheds within the Mississippi-Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). A clear spatial difference was observed among two different classes of metrics. Watersheds in the eastern half of the MARB exhibited higher overall flows as characterized by the mean, median, and maximum daily values, whereas western MARB watersheds were associated with flood indicative of high extreme flows such as skewness, standardized streamflow index and top days. Total agricultural and building losses within HUC12 watersheds were related to flood metrics and those focused on higher overall flows were more correlated to expected annual losses (EAL) than extreme value metrics. Results from this study are useful for identifying continental scale patterns of flood risks within the MARB and should be considered a launching point from which to improve the connections between watershed scale risks and the potential use of natural infrastructure practices to reduce these risks.

Community perceptions on wildfires in Mount Kenya forest: implications for fire preparedness and community wildfire management

BackgroundNatural ecosystems provide beneficial goods and services to adjacent communities. However, these benefits also come with societal risks, among them wildfires. Kenyan ecosystems have faced increased wildfire risk due to human activities and a warming earth that causes dangerous fire weather conditions. Mount Kenya is one such ecosystem that experiences annual fires; however, there is limited information on the level of knowledge or preparedness of the local community towards wildfires and fire management across the entire ecosystem. Here, we used questionnaires and interviews to randomly and purposively survey 55 respondents across 11 villages that surround Mt Kenya forest, majority of whom were Community Forest Association (CFA) members. We investigated the perceived extent to which the communities contribute to wildfires; their opinions on some aspects of fire management; and what individual and collective actions are required to improve fire preparedness.ResultsThe most perceived causes of wildfires were honey harvesting (56%) and poaching (40%). A minority of the respondents (35%) were aware of the belief that setting forests on fire brings about rainfall, with 56% of that group reporting that the belief contributed to wildfire ignitions by a large extent. This scientifically inconclusive belief was not specific to certain tribes around Mt Kenya, as previously expected. The community strongly rejected the use of prescribed burning in fire management. They were against clearing of forest or farm debris to reduce fuel hazards, and preferred converting debris into compost.ConclusionsTo improve fire preparedness, firefighting training, resourcing, firebreak creation, and sharing of wildfire warnings with the local community need to be enhanced. Despite limited community involvement in fire-management decisions, we recommend a greater involvement of the local community in forest and/or fire management to promote ownership and sustainability.

494 Demographic and Societal Risk Factors for Pediculus-Associated Severe Anemia in Emergency Department Patients

494 Demographic and Societal Risk Factors for Pediculus-Associated Severe Anemia in Emergency Department Patients

Tourism in the polycrisis: a Horizon 2050 paper

Purpose Tourism faces a range of interconnected and potentially transformative global risks – collectively considered an evolving polycrisis – that have not been adequately defined and understood. As a result, the industry struggles to proactively anticipate and mitigate potential future challenges, while governments lack insight for strategic longer-term decision-making on tourism development. The purpose of this paper is to advance tourism sector consideration of global change threats and their complex interactions and more effectively incorporate these risks into tourism futures planning. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual gap is addressed through a discussion of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Reports, and their definition of environmental, economic, geopolitical, societal and technological risk categories. In applying results to tourism, a preliminary expert assessment of global risks serves as a foundational framework to incorporate potential global change threats more effectively into tourism futures planning and decision-making. Findings Additional research should be prioritized to examine global risks most influential of tourism, how and where they may interact, how to convert risk categories into measurable indicators and to evaluate whether risk assessments can contribute to mitigating the evolving polycrisis. Originality/value This paper discusses the systematic and strategic engagement with global risks for tourism, critically reviews the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Reports from tourism perspective, presents key risk dimensions driving future tourism development, provides a foundational framework to further assess global risk for tourism and compels tourism academy to prioritize global change research agenda.

Economic Impacts of Generative Artificial Intelligence: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) has emerged as a pivotal force in the Industrial Revolution – 4.0, significantly enhancing productivity and innovation across diverse sectors. This literature review investigates the economic impact of GAI from both macro and micro perspectives, focusing on its influence on productivity, creativity, and technological advancement in various industries. Through bibliometric analysis from the Web of Science database, this study identifies key trends, geographic distribution, and research hotspots in this field. Content analysis finds that GAI technologies substantially boost efficiency and economic output while posing challenges related to ethical considerations and societal risks. This review attempts to bridge the research gap by providing a systematic review and induction of influencing factors in this field and highlights the transformative potential of GAI. Future research directions are proposed to address gaps in understanding the comprehensive economic impact of GAI, aiming to guide enterprises in leveraging these technologies for competitive advantage.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of an Oil-Gas-Hydrogen-Electricity Integrated Energy Station in China.

This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) study of an oil-gas-hydrogen-electricity integrated energy station in China. A comprehensive assessment of the station was made in terms of consequences and risks, respectively. Consequence analysis shows that the severity of hazardous chemical leakage accidents in the station is in the order of natural gas, hydrogen, gasoline, and diesel fuel, especially in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) storage tank areas, which may cause major accidents in the event of leakage. The results of the risk assessment showed that the individual and societal risks of the integrated oil-gas-hydrogen-electricity energy station exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. Moreover, the catastrophic rupture of LNG and CNG storage tanks is the main cause of the unacceptable risk. Additional mitigation measures for them, mainly including the installation of emergency manual shut-off valves, the installation of combustible gas detection and alarm devices, and pressure relief protection devices, can effectively reduce the risk to an acceptable level.

Navigating hate speech and content moderation under the DSA: insights from ECtHR case law

ABSTRACT The dissemination of hate speech online necessitates forceful content moderation to protect individuals and democratic values, without undue infringement of freedom of expression and the right to access information. In Europe, recent regulatory measures like the Digital Services Act (DSA) address the amplification of harmful content on social media, and place responsibilities on Very Large Online Platforms to counter societal risks, such as hate speech. The DSA mandates that platforms balance commercial interests with protecting user rights and safety, necessitating nuanced moderation strategies. However, both automated and human moderation face challenges in accurately identifying and countering hate speech. The European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and its interpretation by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) provide essential guidance for navigating how to counter hate speech and also protect freedom of expression. This article aims to contribute to the understanding the emerging landscape of platform regulation and how the demands in the DSA can be better understood and operationalized regarding moderation of hate speech, in light of ECtHR case law.

Quantifying wildland fire resources deployed during the compound threat of COVID-19

Fire agencies across the United States must make complex resource allocation decisions to manage wildfires using a national network of shared firefighting resources. Firefighters play a critical role in suppressing fires and protecting vulnerable communities. However, they are exposed to health and safety risks associated with fire, smoke inhalation, and infectious disease transmission. The COVID-19 pandemic further complicated these risks, prompting fire agencies to propose resource management adaptations to minimize COVID-19 exposure and transmission. It is unclear if and how the pandemic may have operationally influenced wildland firefighting personnel resource use given compounding wildfire and COVID-19 risks. Therefore, we developed generalized linear mixed models that were fit using multiple integrated datasets to detect changes in personnel resource use for years prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, while controlling for historical fire and landscape conditions, societal risks, and management objectives. Analyses of observed and predicted firefighting resource use revealed reductions in the mean personnel resources used per wildfire per day during the pandemic for models developed across the western U.S. and for various western U.S. fire regions. Notably, the Northern California and the Great Basin Coordination Centers showed statistically significant reductions in ground personnel use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Learning from wildland fire management strategies and resource use trends that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, fire agencies can better anticipate resource constraints that may arise during the compounding threats of severe wildland fire activity and infectious disease outbreaks to proactively prepare and adapt suppression management strategies.

Bring digital twins back to Earth

AbstractWe reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the concept, including the twins' potential to reinforce economicism and governance by numbers, emphasizing concerns about democratic accountability. We propose a more balanced alternative, advocating for independent institutions to develop diverse models, prioritize communication with simple heuristic‐based models, collect comprehensive data from various sources, including traditional knowledge, and shift focus away from physics‐centered variables to inform climate action. We argue that the advancement of digital twins should hinge on stringent controls, favoring a nuanced, interdisciplinary, and democratic approach that prioritizes societal well‐being over blind pursuit of computational sophistication.This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling &gt; Earth System Models Climate Models and Modeling &gt; Knowledge Generation with Models Climate, History, Society, Culture &gt; Disciplinary Perspectives

Storylines of summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents–Kara seas and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risk assessment

Abstract. While climate models broadly agree on the changes expected to occur over the Arctic with global warming on a pan-Arctic scale (i.e. polar amplification, sea ice loss, and increased precipitation), the magnitude and patterns of these changes at regional and local scales remain uncertain. This limits the usability of climate model projections for risk assessments and their impact on human activities or ecosystems (e.g. fires and permafrost thawing). Whereas any single or ensemble mean projection may be of limited use to stakeholders, recent studies have shown the value of the storyline approach in providing a comprehensive and tractable set of climate projections that can be used to evaluate changes in environmental or societal risks associated with global warming. Here, we apply the storyline approach to a large ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with the aim of distilling the wide spread in model predictions into four physically plausible outcomes of Arctic summertime climate change. This is made possible by leveraging strong covariability in the climate system associated with well-known but poorly constrained teleconnections and local processes; specifically, we find that differences in Barents–Kara sea warming and lower-tropospheric warming over polar regions among CMIP6 models explain most of the inter-model variability in pan-Arctic surface summer climate response to global warming. Based on this novel finding, we compare regional disparities in climate change across the four storylines. Our storyline analysis highlights the fact that for a given amount of global warming, certain climate risks can be intensified, while others may be lessened, relative to a “middle-of-the-road” ensemble mean projection. We find this to be particularly relevant when comparing climate change over terrestrial and marine areas of the Arctic which can show substantial differences in their sensitivity to global warming. We conclude by discussing the potential implications of our findings for modelling climate change impacts on ecosystems and human activities.