Societal Risk Research Articles

Risk Reduction and Recovery from Flood Hazard- A Case of Human Adjustment in Lower Damodar Basin, West Bengal

The study investigates the risk of flood hazards in the lower Damodar basin, focusing on human perception and adjustment strategies to mitigate and recover from the societal risk posed by these hazards. The river Damodar is known as ‘the sorrow of Bengal’ due to its flood ravages in the entire Damodar valley, which caused much unhappiness and distress in the lower Damodar region. In this area, the main flood-causing agents are rainfall and discharge from upland reservoirs. In the study, the annual peak flow is used to determine the flood frequency analysis. Flood inundation mapping analysis revealed that Amta and Khanakul blocks of Hooghly district are most vulnerable to maximum flood inundation during monsoon months. The damage due to floods in terms of economic loss and the probability of flood occurrences are used for assessing flood risk and the magnitude of vulnerability in the study area. The adopted structural measures in this area have not yielded sufficient results to mitigate the chronic flood problems. Therefore, some non-structural measures, particularly human adjustment strategies, are taken into consideration, like flood forecasting, alternative cropping arrangements, choices for other livelihood options, and capacity building through self-help- groups.

Generativni modeli veštačke inteligencije - zauzdati još jednu tehnološku revoluciju

Generative AI promises to revolutionize many industries (entertainment, marketing, healthcare, finance, and research) by empowering machines to create new data content inspired by existing data. It experienced exponential growth in recent years. In 2023 breakout year Gen AI impact reached 2.6-4.4 trillion USD (2.5-4.2% of global GDP). The development of modern LLM-based models has been facilitated by improvements in computing power, data availability, and algorithms. These models have diverse applications in text, visual, audio, and code generation across various domains. Leading companies are rapidly deploying Gen AI for strategic decision-making at corporate executive levels. While AI-related risks have been identified, mitigation measures are still in early stages. Leaders in Gen AI adoption anticipate workforce changes and re-skilling needs. Gen AI is primarily used for text functions, big data analysis, and customer services, with the strongest impact in knowledge-based sectors. High-performing AI companies prioritize revenue generation over cost reduction, rapidly expand the use of Gen AI across various business functions, and link business value to organizational performance and structure. There is a notable lack of attention to addressing broader societal risks and the impact on the labor force. Gen AI creates new job opportunities and improves productivity in key areas. Future investment in AI is expected to rise. Concerns about the potential AI singularity, where machines surpass human intelligence, are subject to debate. Some view singularity as a risk, others are more optimistic based on human control and societal constraints. Leading experts in Gen AI predict that the coming decade can be the most prosperous in history if we manage to harness the benefits of Gen AI and control its downside.

On the importance of systems thinking in ERW (explosive remnants of war) risk management

One of the legacies of armed conflict is unexploded ordnance and abandoned ammunition. This legacy will, in many cases, have a severe impact on society and daily life, even for years or decades after hostilities have ended. The millions of tonnes of explosive remnants that remain in nature represent a grave threat in many ways, and, if left in place, the human, societal and environmental impact could prove to be severe. Clearing the ERW represents a serious and complex risk in itself, a risk that could increase if mismanaged. Furthermore, the accumulations of munition contamination hinder and severely endanger areal development, both on land and offshore. However, vast amounts of explosives and accumulations of munitions, such as those in dumping areas and shipwrecks, are systematically neglected. An unintentional detonation at such a site could prove to have disastrous societal and environmental consequences. In the present work, it is shown that systems thinking could be used as a tool to gain better insight into the complexity of managing the risk related to explosive remnants of war, and to better prioritize resources allocated to mitigating this threat, resulting in the optimization of resource allocation and reduced societal risk.

Developing a human rights compatible governance framework for quantum computing

Abstract Quantum computers hold significant promise for peaceful applications, but one of the more immediate potential applications is breaking of public key encryption technologies. This poses significant risks to the information security of global digital infrastructure in a broader sense. At the same time, the development of quantum computing is a quintessentially scientific undertaking. There is a tension in the scientific freedom required to develop these technologies, and the measures to mitigate the risks associated with quantum computers. Policy for resolving this tension must be in line with the human right to science, read together with the right to privacy and the right to freedom of expression. In this article, I apply these rights to the development of quantum computing to provide guidance for government policy on quantum computing. I conclude that states must create the conditions for scientific research to flourish, even if this research may carry significant societal risks. This applies also to research and development of quantum technologies. In the context of quantum computing, this primarily means investing in the development and uptake of alternative encryption technologies which are resistant to attacks by quantum computers. It also means regulating the use of these technologies for applications which are undesirable.

Personal Versus Societal Risk: Examining Social Media Influence on Individual and Collective Behaviors for COVID-19 Containment

The study proposed a theoretical framework to identify the underlying mechanisms by which social media use affected individual and collective behaviors (i.e., self-protective and collective engagement behavior) during a public health emergency. The framework first considered how people shaped personal-level and societal-level risk perceptions from social media use and then examined how risk perception, in turn, predicted perceived media influence on themselves and on others, and subsequently individual and collective behaviors. The framework was tested with the survey data of 976 social media users during the 2022 COVID-19 outbreaks in China. The results showed that the indirect association between social media use and self-protective behaviors was mediated by risk perception, at both the personal and societal levels. The indirect association between social media use and collective engagement behaviors was mediated by societal-level risk perception and perceived media influence on others in sequence. However, no direct effect of social media use on collective engagement behaviors was found.

Assessing Risk Acceptability and Tolerability in Italian Tunnels with the Quantum Gu@larp Model.

Road tunnels are associated with numerous risks including traffic accidents and fires, posing threats to individual or group users. Key risk indicators such as Risk Quantum, Individual Risk, Societal Risk, and Expected Number of Fatalities are instrumental in evaluating the level of risk exposure. These indicators empower Rights-Holders and Duty-Holders to report hazards, prevent disasters, and implement timely remedial measures. A crucial indicator, the Scenario Risk Quantum, has its roots in the forensic evaluation of responsibility in a fatal tunnel accident in the UK since 1949. The Quantum of Risk of each design scenario, reasonably selected among rational and practicable possibilities, has both a deterministic and probabilistic character. The Risk Tolerability and Acceptability criteria are modelled according to risk indicators by selecting the parameters according to ethical principles and societal policy. Scenarios are meticulously identified, described, probabilised and assigned probabilities prior to the quantitative risk analysis. These risk indicators are integral to the risk assessment process. This article delves into the understanding of these indicators within the context of Italian road tunnels, employing the Quantum Gu@larp Model to analyse Risk Acceptability and Tolerability.

Cruise Port Market Positioning: Making the Case for Including Societal and Environmental Risk Mitigation Strategies

Port Authorities (PAs) are now paying growing attention to the social and environmental risks stemming from their cruise activities. Several of these ports are engaged in a structured and for some already long-standing, approach to reducing the negative externalities of cruise ship calls. However, the content analysis of 36 Port Authorities’ websites showed that very few of them report on such action plans. Based on the review of the literature dealing with PAs’ market positioning approaches, the purpose of this paper is to promote the opportunity and feasibility for PAs to disseminate information about their past, ongoing, and/or future actions supporting sustainable cruise tourism.

Prenatal substance exposure and child health: Understanding the role of environmental factors, genetics, and brain development.

Prenatal substance exposure (PSE) has been linked to adverse health outcomes, but its interactions with environmental and genetic factors remain unclear. Using data from the adolescent brain cognitive development cohort (n = 9,838; baseline age: 9.92 ± 0.62 years), we tested for the robust associations of PSE-caffeine/alcohol/tobacco/marijuana with children's health, cognition, and brain metrics after controlling for the environmental and genetic contexts. The environmental context involved birth, familial, and societal risk factors, while the genetic context included family histories and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) of mental disorders. In this sample, PSE-caffeine was observed in 59.8%, PSE-alcohol in 25.7%, PSE-tobacco in 13.2%, and PSE-marijuana in 5.6% of children. PSE-tobacco/marijuana was associated with higher environmental risks, PSE-alcohol was associated with lower familial risks, and all PSEs were associated with higher genetic risks. Controlling for these contexts reduced the number of significant health associations by 100, 91, 84, and 18% for PSE-tobacco/marijuana/caffeine/alcohol. Compared to the baseline, PSE-alcohol had the most health associations that were persistent over a 2-year period from preadolescence to adolescence, including associations with more sleep and mental health problems, improved cognitive functions, and larger brain volumes. These persistent associations with mental health problems and crystallized cognition were mediated by the surface areas of the frontal and the parietal cortices, respectively. Lower risk scores of the familial contexts attenuated associations between PSE-alcohol/marijuana and mental health problems. Higher PRS for substance use disorders enhanced late-onset associations of PSE-marijuana with externalizing problems. Results support the "health in context" concept, emphasizing modifiable factors mitigating adverse PSE effects.

A mathematical optimization model for determining safety integrity levels in process facilities

In process industries, Safety Instrumented Functions (SIFs) are implemented to meet government-mandated risk tolerance criteria, which aim to ensure the safety of both individuals and society. The level of risk reduction achieved by a SIF is quantified by its Safety Integrity Level (SIL). Determining the target SILs is a challenging task for facility owners as they must balance the costs and benefits of risk reduction while complying with regulatory requirements. Furthermore, governments define risk tolerance criteria for an overall facility rather than for single scenarios. Therefore, determining a set of SILs for all SIFs becomes imperative to collectively reduce both individual and societal risks to tolerable levels intended for the overall facility. In this paper, we propose a mathematical optimization model to determine the most beneficial collection of SILs that guarantees meeting the risk tolerance criteria. Our model considers both individual and societal risk perspectives and effectively models an overall facility. The proposed model is applied to a process facility and the results are compared with the results from the existing methods for SIL determination. The results demonstrate the model's superior effectiveness in helping owners to select the most beneficial target SILs while ensuring compliance with government requirements.

Risk assessment of liquid ammonia tanks based on Bayesian network and Probit model

AbstractThis paper presents a quantitative risk assessment method to predict the potential risks of liquid ammonia tanks. The method combines probabilistic prediction and consequence assessment: the former is predicted by Bayesian networks derived from bow‐tie mapping, in which the conditional probabilities are determined by analytic hierarchy process, the latter is calculated based on numerical simulation of accident consequences and Probit probability model. The application results show that the method can be used for quantitative risk assessment of liquid ammonia storage tank, and the Bayesian network model is efficient and stable, which can realize risk prediction, accident causes analysis and risk mitigation analysis. Human errors during production or maintenance and corrosion are the main causes of liquid ammonia leakage. Toxicity has the greatest effect on the risk of liquid ammonia tanks. Risk mitigation measures can significantly reduce individual risk and societal risk. The obtained results provide meaningful guidance for the prevention and risk mitigation strategies of liquid ammonia leakage accidents, so as to improve the safety level of liquid ammonia during storage.

Shutdown and compliance decisions in the face of a viral pandemic: A game between governments and citizens

During viral pandemics, governments throughout the world face many complicated and important decisions, such as whether and how to implement a shutdown. In response to shutdown measures that are enacted by governments, citizens are then forced to make decisions regarding whether to comply (and stay home) or violate (and leave their residence for non-essential reasons). To the best of our knowledge, these shutdown and compliance interactions between governments and citizens have received limited attention from the scientific community. To address this gap, we start by developing a single-leader multiple-follower game-theoretic model to study the optimal decisions of the government, who wants to minimize her total cost of implementing a shutdown while balancing societal infection risks, and the public, which wants to minimize their total cost of compliance and individual infection risks. In this initial version of the game, the government selects whether or not to implement a shutdown, while the public decides whether to comply with the government’s safety guidelines. We then extend this version of the game by modeling a continuous-choice government, where she can implement a total shutdown, no safety measures at all, or anything between those extremes. We solve both models analytically, resulting in closed-form equilibrium solutions. Using data related to COVID-19, we conduct sensitivity analyses to study how the equilibrium strategies change as the values of the model parameters fluctuate. Our models and analyses offer important and relevant insights into optimal decision making in this setting, and also apply in situations in which infections spread at a rapid rate but may not cause severe illness, such as the case of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. In these scenarios, the models recommend that the government does not implement a shutdown, and instead encourages the public to follow safety measures to avoid infections.

The uneven burden of COVID-19 in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil – Risk analysis from a bottom-up perspective

Brazil was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and cases and mortality data had problems of timeliness and correctness, hindering risk analysis. We have implemented a mixed-methods approach providing data interoperability to understand the relationship between risk and inequality. We implement a GIS-based risk score and focus groups in São Paulo. The risk score includes age structure, social vulnerability, and behavior. The COVID-19 risk score results identified more frequent high-risk districts among peripheral and vulnerable areas influenced by social vulnerability. Risk was also strongly influenced by behavior, hence varying over time. We found that the average risk score may overestimate the risk for privileged population groups and underestimate it for vulnerable groups. To verify this issue, we extended our analysis with qualitative data comparing COVID-19 impact between focus groups at opposing ends of the vulnerability spectrum: in the city center and a vulnerable, peripheral, and informal community. The focus groups reveal further inequality in the pandemic impact, coupling health issues with social, economic, and mental health problems. Our findings highlight the importance of providing data-interoperability and mixing methods at the local scale to account for contextual and societal risk factors regarding social vulnerability.

Time matters in pandemic risk communication: A moderated effect of information timeliness on stakeholder perception in Singapore.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic shows the increasing importance of determining the factors of the public perceptions of personal and societal risks. These perceptions can shape people's behaviors, which, in turn, alter the spread of a pandemic on the community level. However, previous research on risk communication was inconsistent, and little is known about the impact of timely warning messages on stakeholders' perceptions of public health emergencies. To address this theoretical gap, this study analyzes the survey data (N=538) from Singapore to explore the main effect of information timeliness on the respondents' stakeholder perceptions. This effect is moderated by normative factors, including attention and threat perceptions. We find that the more timely the government updates the risk information, the more trustworthy the stakeholders appear in respondents' opinions. Such an effect is weakened when the pre-decision attention or the threat perception interacts with the predictor independently. However, this effect on stakeholder perceptions becomes stronger if both moderators interact with the information timeliness. That is, an appropriate combination of the information released by the government can effectively enhance the image of the stakeholders during the pandemic.

Biometrics, presents, futures: the imaginative politics of science–society orderings

Abstract Biometric technology encompasses a proliferating array of data forms, applications, and stakeholders but has raised numerous social and ethical concerns. This article examines contending perceptions of biometrics by developing a three-way framework of science–society orderings, drawn from social studies of biometrics and wider science studies literature. By analysing documentary sources and participant observation data through this framework, the article identifies a series of distinct normative interpretations or imaginaries of biometrics. It is argued that these imaginaries, described, respectively, as ‘public good’, ‘collective control’, and ‘societal risks’, project contending normative framings of science–society relations. These imaginaries were also however found to reflexively encompass perceived challenges, giving rise to practices that I term imaginative politics. These findings raise the need for science policy studies to consider the distinction between imagining and realizing in greater depth and to consider more profoundly the politics of science–society co-production.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Refueling Station in Cheonan City of South Korea

The average temperature of the Earth has risen due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases emitted from the usage of fossil fuels. The consequential climate changes have caused various problems, fueling the growing demand for environmentally friendly energy sources that can replace fossil fuels. Batteries and hydrogen have thus been utilized as substitute energy sources for automobiles to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Consequently, the number of hydrogen refueling stations is increasing due to an increase in the number of hydrogen-powered vehicles. However, several incidents have been reported in the United States of America and Japan where hydrogen refueling stations have been operating for a long time. A risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations operating in urban areas was performed in this study by calculating the risk effect range using a process hazard analysis tool (PHAST) v8.7 from DNV-GL and a hydrogen risk assessment model (HyRAM) from Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The societal risk was assessed through a probit model based on the calculation results. The assessment results showed that the risk caused by jet fire and overpressure in an incident is lower than the ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ (ALARP) level.

Future past of tourism: critical reflection’s on the rise of tourism futures

Given the presence of societal scale risks such as pandemics, war, climate change and artificial technology, the future of tourism will operate increasingly in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) world. As such the present course of tourism research is unsustainable. In this paper, the authors draw upon the evolutionary paradigm in futures studies to identify a series of historical turning points in the development of tourism futures research. These include forecasting tourism demand using quantitative methods; the appointment of the world’s first tourism scenario planner; the establishment of the European Tourism Futures Institute; the creation of academic credibility through the Journal of Tourism Futures; the effect of COVID-19 on tourism research; and finally, the accelerator effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our consciousness and awareness of the future. In conclusion, the authors offer a series of futures turning points identifying the direction of tourism futures, scenario planning and foresight within the realm of tourism research.

Climate realism: Policy proposals for effective decarbonisation and true sustainability in the EU

The EU has put forward a very ambitious policy agenda for decarbonising its economy and limiting the dangerous consequences of climate change. However, parts of its approach have become untenable. This article argues that the current design of the EU’s climate agenda is becoming financially and socially unsustainable. Spiralling fiscal costs, a scarcity of vital energy and resources, and increasing societal strain risk derailing the European Green Deal. The text puts forward a number of centre–right policy proposals for a more realistic European approach to climate change that would deliver true sustainability and take the EU towards climate neutrality.

Child Sexual Abuse in Schools in India: A Critical Analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the types and prevalence of Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) in India, with a focus on its widespread presence throughout the educational system. It also aims to identify and address societal, cultural, and familial risk factors for CSA. The report argues for increased awareness of minors' safety and rights, particularly those of girls, throughout their schooling years. Theoretical reference: This study employs a multidisciplinary approach, including findings from psychology, sociology, and education. It combines trauma theory, child development, and gender studies to examine the impact of CSA on minors in the educational context. Method: The study adopts a mixed-method approach, integrating qualitative interviews with survivors, instructors, and parents with a quantitative survey to examine CSA beliefs and knowledge levels. To obtain relevant insights, data is evaluated using thematic coding and statistical approaches. Result and conclusion: The study demonstrates a worrying incidence of CSA inside the Indian education system, emphasizing the critical need for intervention. It addresses significant risk factors, emphasizing the importance of education in protecting children. The findings highlight the need of effective reporting procedures and due process in protecting children's rights and safety. Implications of Research: This study emphasizes the need of educational institutions prioritizing minors' safety and well-being. It promotes the adoption of clear, accessible reporting systems as well as strong preventive initiatives. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of knowing and addressing teachers' and parents' views and knowledge levels in order to create a safe workplace. Originality: This study adds to the current body of knowledge by providing a thorough assessment of CSA inside the Indian school system. It gives deep insights into the special issues faced by minors, particularly girls, as well as effective preventative and intervention solutions. This research also emphasizes the critical role of educators and parents in fostering a safer learning environment.

The value affordances of social media engagement features

Abstract Social media engagement is ubiquitous but contested, simultaneously framed as an everyday form of support and an urgent societal risk. To make sense of these competing claims, we introduce the concept of value affordances, defined as the set of ethical, aesthetic, and relational principles that emerge from the interaction between different stakeholders and technological infrastructures. We develop a novel method involving focus groups and value cards to study the value affordances of engagement features and explore how international students attribute values to the Like, Comment, and Share buttons of TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. Across platforms, participants agree that engagement features promote expression, care, and community and hinder privacy, mindfulness, peace, and safety. We discuss how our participants navigate value tradeoffs, emphasizing individual agency over structural factors when evaluating the design of platforms, using social media creatively, and assigning responsibility for harm to other users.

Multiscale Influences on Rainfall in Northeast Australia

Abstract This study examines the multiscale modulation of mean and extreme rainfall in Northeast (NE) Australia under different background modes of variability, which is a new aspect given the high-resolution and long-term observational datasets. Daily rainfall probability is significantly modified by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and its influence varies with the seasons and is associated with atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall generally decreases during El Niño and increases during La Niña years; however, there is a notable spatial nuance to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-associated extreme rainfall, with some locations showing the opposite precipitation response to the typical ENSO–rainfall relationship. Despite more precipitation overall in La Niña years, the mean and extreme precipitation responses to the MJO appear to be stronger and more often statistically significant during El Niño compared to La Niña periods. The impact of ENSO on the MJO–rainfall relationship is stronger than the variation of the MJO itself with ENSO, and likely reflects a change in the MJO modulation of rain-bearing atmospheric processes. During El Niño periods, diurnal rainfall amplitude is generally stronger in the central and southern subtropical parts of the study area than during La Niña periods, while the opposite tendency occurs in the northern tropical part. The diurnal cycle of both mean and extreme precipitation is amplified during suppressed convection phases compared to enhanced convection phases of the MJO. In general, the peak time of diurnal cycle does not change with MJO regimes, but there are some notable differences in rainfall propagation between enhanced and suppressed MJO phases. Significance Statement This study presents a new perspective on the relationship between precipitation in Northeast (NE) Australia and two important climate modes, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Rainfall in NE Australia is strongly influenced by the MJO, ENSO, and their interaction, suggesting that climate models need to capture both individual climate modes and their interactions for reliable rainfall projections. These findings have societal climate risk implications, as NE Australia is an area prone to catastrophic flooding due to extreme rainfall.