Societal Cost Savings Research Articles

Stakeholders' perspectives on capturing societal cost savings from a quality improvement initiative: A qualitative study.

Besides improving the quality of care, quality improvement initiatives often also intend to produce cost savings. An example is prehabilitation, which can reduce complication rates and the length of stay in the hospital. However, the process from utilization reductions to actual societal cost savings remains uncertain in practice. Our aim was to identify barriers and facilitators throughout this process. We used the implementation of prehabilitation in a Dutch hospital as a test case. We held 20 semi-structured interviews between June and November 2023. Eighteen stakeholders were affiliated with the hospital and two with different health insurers. Nine interviews were held face-to-face and 11 via Microsoft Teams. The interviews were recorded and transcribed. The first transcripts were inductively coded by two authors, the subsequent transcripts by one and checked by another. Differences were resolved through discussion. We identified 20 barriers and 23 facilitators across four stages: reducing capacity, reducing departmental expenses, reducing hospital expenses and reducing insurer expenses. All participants expected that the excess capacity will be used for other priorities. This was perceived as highly valuable and as an efficiency gain. Other barriers to capture savings included the fear of losing resilience, flexibility, status and revenue. Misalignment between service contracts among hospitals and insurers can hinder the ability to financially incentivize cost reductions. Additionally, some contract types can hinder the transfer of hospital savings to insurers. Identified facilitators included shared savings agreements, an explicit strategy targeting all stages, and labor shortage, among others. This study systematically describes barriers and facilitators that prevent translating quality improvement initiatives into societal cost savings. Stakeholders expect that any saved capacity will be used for other priorities, including providing care due to the increasing demand. Capturing any cash savings does not occur automatically, emphasizing the need for a strategy targeting all stages.

Extending mechanical thrombectomy service provision to 24/7: a break-even analysis

BackgroundComprehensive stroke centres across England have developed investment proposals, showing the estimated increases in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) treatment volume that would justify extending the standard hours to a 24/7 service provision. These investment proposals have been developed taking a financial accounting perspective, that is by considering the financial revenues from tariff income. However, given the pressure put on local health authorities to provide value for money services, an affordability question emerges. That is, at what additional MT treatment volume the additional treatment costs are offset by the additional health economic benefits, that is quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal cost savings, generated by administering MT compared to standard care.MethodsA break-even analysis was conducted to identify the additional MT treatment volume required. The incremental hospital-related costs associated with the 24/7 MT extension were estimated using information and parameters from four relevant business cases. The additional societal cost savings and health benefits were estimated by adapting a previously developed Markov chain-based model.ResultsThe additional hospital-related annual costs for extending MT to a 24/7 service were estimated at a mean of £3,756,818 (range £1,847,387 to £5,092,788). On average, 750 (range 246 to 1,571) additional eligible stroke patients are required to be treated with MT yearly for the proposed 24/7 service extension to be affordable from a health economic perspective. Overall, the additional facility and equipment costs associated with the 24/7 extension would affect this estimate by 20%.ConclusionsThese findings support the ongoing debate regarding the optimal levels of MT treatment required for a 24/7 extension and respective changes in hospital organisational activities. They also highlight a need for a regional-level coordination between local authorities and hospital administrations to ensure equity provision in that stroke patients can benefit from MT and that the optimal MT treatment volume is reached. Future studies should contemplate reproducing the presented analysis for different health service provision settings and decision making contexts.

A cost benefit analysis of varicella vaccination in South Korea

BackgroundThe introduction of varicella vaccination has significantly reduced the burden of chickenpox in many countries, but outbreaks still occur in populations with high vaccination coverage. To address this, some countries, including the United States, Germany, and Japan, have adopted a two-dose varicella vaccination recommendation. Economic evaluations are crucial for assessing vaccine recommendations; however, there are limited studies exist in Asian countries. Thus, our study aimed to evaluate the cost-benefit of one-dose and two-dose varicella vaccination programs compared to no vaccination in South Korea, incorporating updated data on disease burden and costs. MethodsWe utilized data from South Korea’s health databases to estimate varicella burden and vaccination records. Decision tree analysis was employed to compare costs and benefits of vaccination strategies over a ten-year period for the 2012 birth cohort. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of various variables. ResultsBoth one-dose and two-dose vaccination programs showed cost-benefit compared to no vaccination, with substantial societal cost savings. The one-dose program yielded a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of1.43, while the two-dose program had a direct BCR of1.28. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings. ConclusionOur study demonstrates the economic benefits of varicella vaccination in South Korea, aligning with findings from other countries. While the second dose did not show additional cost savings compared to the one-dose program, other factors like disease severity and transmission dynamics should be considered. Implementing either a one-dose or two-dose varicella vaccination regimen in South Korea could lead to cost reductions and improved cost-effectiveness compared to no vaccination, emphasizing the importance of vaccination programs in reducing disease burden and enhancing public health outcomes.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Primary Prevention Interventions for Skin Cancer: An Updated Systematic Review.

Preventing the onset of skin malignancies is feasible by reducing exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We reviewed published economic evaluations of primary prevention initiatives in the past decade, to support investment decisions for skin cancer prevention. We assessed cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and benefit-cost analyses published from 1 September 2013. Seven databases were searched on 18 July 2023 and updated on 15 November 2023. Studies must have reported outcomes in terms of monetary costs, life years, quality-adjusted life years or variant thereof. A narrative synthesis was undertaken and reporting quality was assessed by three reviewers using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist. In total, 12 studies were included with five studies located in Australia; three in North America and the remaining four in Europe. Interventions included restricting the use of indoor tanning devices (7 studies), television advertising, multi-component sun safety campaigns, shade structures plus protective clothing provision for outdoor workers and provision of melanoma genomic risk information to individuals. Most studies constructed Markov cohort models and adopted a societal cost perspective. Overall, the reporting quality of the studies was high. Studies found highly favourable returns on investment ranging from US$0.35 for every $1 spent on prevention, up to €3.60 for every €1 spent. Other studies showed substantial skin cancers avoided, gains in life years, quality-adjusted survival, and societal cost savings. From both population health and economic perspectives, allocating limited health care resources to primary prevention of skin cancer is highly favourable.

Reducing overdose deaths among persons with opioid use disorder in connecticut

BackgroundPeople in Connecticut are now more likely to die of a drug-related overdose than a traffic accident. While Connecticut has had some success in slowing the rise in overdose death rates, substantial additional progress is necessary.MethodsWe developed, verified, and calibrated a mechanistic simulation of alternative overdose prevention policy options, including scaling up naloxone (NLX) distribution in the community and medications for opioid use disorder (OUD) among people who are incarcerated (MOUD-INC) and in the community (MOUD-COM) in a simulated cohort of people with OUD in Connecticut. We estimated how maximally scaling up each option individually and in combinations would impact 5-year overdose deaths, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years. All costs were assessed in 2021 USD, employing a health sector perspective in base-case analyses and a societal perspective in sensitivity analyses, using a 3% discount rate and 5-year and lifetime time horizons.ResultsMaximally scaling NLX alone reduces overdose deaths 20% in the next 5 years at a favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER); if injectable rather than intranasal NLX was distributed, 240 additional overdose deaths could be prevented. Maximally scaling MOUD-COM and MOUD-INC alone reduce overdose deaths by 14% and 6% respectively at favorable ICERS. Considering all permutations of scaling up policies, scaling NLX and MOUD-COM together is the cost-effective choice, reducing overdose deaths 32% at ICER $19,000/QALY. In sensitivity analyses using a societal perspective, all policy options were cost saving and overdose deaths reduced 33% over 5 years while saving society $338,000 per capita over the simulated cohort lifetime.ConclusionsMaximally scaling access to naloxone and MOUD in the community can reduce 5-year overdose deaths by 32% among people with OUD in Connecticut under realistic budget scenarios. If societal cost savings due to increased productivity and reduced crime costs are considered, one-third of overdose deaths can be reduced by maximally scaling all three policy options, while saving money.

Expanding the access to kidney transplantation: Strategies for kidney transplant programs.

Kidney transplantation is the most successful kidney replacement therapy available, resulting in improved recipient survival and societal cost savings. Yet, nearly 70 years after the first successful kidney transplant, there are still numerous barriers and untapped opportunities that constrain the access to transplant. The literature describing these barriers is extensive, but the practices and processes to solve them are less clear. Solutions must be multidisciplinary and be the product of strong partnerships among patients, their networks, health care providers, and transplant programs. Transparency in the referral, evaluation, and listing process as well as organ selection are paramount to build such partnerships. Providing early culturally congruent and patient-centered education as well as maximizing the use of local resources to facilitate the transplant work up should be prioritized. Every opportunity to facilitate pre-emptive kidney transplantation and living donation must be taken. Promoting the use of telemedicine and kidney paired donation as standards of care can positively impact the work up completion and maximize the chances of a living donor kidney transplant.

Effects of Inpatient Occupational Rehabilitation vs. Outpatient Acceptance and Commitment Therapy on Sick Leave and Cost of Lost Production: 7-Year Follow-Up of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Previously, we reported that an inpatient multimodal occupational rehabilitation program (I-MORE) was more effective than outpatient Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (O-ACT) in reducing sickness absence and was cost-effective over a 24-month period. Here we present 7-years of follow-up on sick leave and the cost of lost production. We randomized individuals aged 18-60, sick-listed due to musculoskeletal or mental health disorders to I-MORE (n = 82) or O-ACT (n = 79). I-MORE, lasting 3.5weeks, integrated ACT, physical training, and work-related problem-solving. In contrast, O-ACT mainly offered six weekly 2.5h group sessions of ACT. We measured outcomes using registry data for days on medical benefits and calculated costs of lost production. Our analysis included regression analyses to examine differences in sickness absence days, logistic general estimating equations for repeated events, and generalized linear models to assess differences in costs of lost production. Unadjusted regression analyses showed 80 fewer days of sickness absence in the 7-year follow-up for I-MORE compared to O-ACT (95% CI -264 to 104), with an adjusted difference of 114 fewer days (95% CI -298 to 71). The difference in costs of production loss in favour of I-MORE was 27,048 euros per participant (95% CI -35,009 to 89,104). I-MORE outperformed O-ACT in reducing sickness absence and production loss costs during seven years of follow-up, but due to a limited sample size the results were unprecise. Considering the potential for substantial societal cost savings from reduced sick leave, there is a need for larger, long-term studies to evaluate return-to-work interventions.

The potential impact of increased recombinant zoster vaccine coverage on the burden of herpes zoster among adults aged 50–59 years

IntroductionRecombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) is recommended in the US for prevention of herpes zoster (HZ) in adults aged ≥50 years. Vaccination rates remain suboptimal for adults 50–59 years compared with adults ≥50 years overall. The objective of this study was to model changes in outcomes associated with improved RZV vaccination coverage in US adults 50–59 years. MethodsA multicohort Markov model compared a scenario using real-world vaccination coverage for US adults 50–59 years in 2020 versus scenarios assuming higher coverage. Outcomes, based on a lifetime horizon, included HZ cases and complications avoided, quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), and costs. Model inputs included HZ epidemiology, RZV vaccine efficacy, coverage, adverse events, and costs, based on published literature and US sources. Some inputs were updated from previous models, including real-world estimates of RZV coverage, series completion, and reflecting longer-term data on waning of vaccine efficacy. The model utilized a cohort size of 42,756,488 individuals based on the 2020 US population census. ResultsThe model projected that increasing RZV coverage in adults 50–59 years from 7.3 % to 14.6 % (to coverage for adults 60–64 years in 2020) would avoid an additional 504,468 HZ cases, 42,077 postherpetic neuralgia cases, and 56,247 cases of other HZ-associated complications. The increase in vaccine coverage would result in higher vaccination-related costs of $1,172,411,566, but the avoided HZ cases and complications would be expected to result in direct cost savings of $721,973,386 and indirect cost savings of $593,497,480 from avoided productivity loss. Overall, a gain of 5,230 discounted QALYs and cost savings of $143,059,299 from a societal perspective would be realized. ConclusionModestly higher RZV coverage in US adults 50–59 years could reduce the clinical burden associated with HZ and may result in societal cost savings. These findings demonstrate the potential value of increasing RZV vaccination in this population.

Modeled health economic and equity impact on dental caries and health outcomes from a 20% sugar sweetened beverages tax in Australia.

Dental caries is the most prevalent oral disease across the life course. This study modeled the population health and economic impact of a 20% sugar sweetened beverages tax (SSB) for preventing dental caries compared to no intervention (societal and healthcare perspective). A cost-effectiveness analysis according to quintiles of area-level socioeconomic disadvantage was performed for the 2020 Australian population (0-100years old) using a closed cohort Markov model. A qualitative assessment of implementation considerations (e.g., acceptability, equity, sustainability) was undertaken. Health outcomes were modeled as decayed teeth prevented and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The 10-year and lifetime scenarios were modeled with probabilistic sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulation, 2000 cycles). The 10-year scenario from a societal perspective yielded cost-savings of AUD$63.5M, healthcare cost-savings of AUD$42.2M, 510,977 decayed teeth averted and 98.1 DALYs averted. The lifetime scenario resulted in societal cost savings of AUD$176.6M, healthcare cost-savings of AUD$122.5M, 1,309,211 decayed teeth averted and 254.9 DALYs averted. Modeling indicated 71.5% and 74.5% cost-effectiveness for the 10-year and lifetime scenarios, respectively. A three-fold health benefit for the least advantaged was found compared to the most advantaged. A 20% SSB tax in Australia is cost-effective and promotes health equity.

Drug Repurposing of Generic Drugs: Challenges and the Potential Role for Government.

Drug repurposing is the process of identifying a new use for an existing drug or active substance in an indication outside the scope of the original indication. Drug repurposing has important advantages including reduced development time and costs, and potentially large societal healthcare cost savings. However, current generic drug repurposing research faces a number of challenges in obtaining research funds. Furthermore, regardless of the success of a repurposing trial, commercial parties often lack interest in pursuing marketing authorisation for financial reasons, and academic researchers lack the knowledge, time and funding. Therefore, the new indication of a repurposed drug often does not make it 'on label'. We propose a large increase in public funding for generic drug repurposing research, including funds for the marketing authorisation process when a trial is successful, and a reduction in the regulatory burden of the marketing authorisation process for repurposed generic drugs.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use among the pediatric population of the United States.

Although use of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) among children has reduced incidence of pneumococcal disease, a considerable burden of disease remains. PCV15 is a new vaccine that contains pneumococcal serotypes 22F and 33F in addition to serotypes contained in PCV13. To inform deliberations by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices on recommendations for PCV15 use among U.S. children, we estimated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States. We also assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of a supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5years who have already received a full PCV13 series. We estimated the incremental number of pneumococcal disease events and deaths averted, costs per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and costs per life-year gained under different vaccination strategies using a probabilistic model following a single birth cohort of 3.9 million individuals (based on 2020 U.S. birth cohort). We assumed that vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV15 against the two additional serotypes was the same as the VE of PCV13. The cost of PCV15 use among children was informed from costs of PCV15 use among adults and from discussions with the manufacturer. Our base case results found that replacing PCV13 with PCV15 prevented 92,290 additional pneumococcal disease events and 22 associated deaths, while also saving $147 million in costs. A supplementary PCV15 dose among children aged 2-5years who were fully vaccinated with PCV13 prevented further pneumococcal disease events and associated deaths but at a cost of more than $2.5 million per QALY gained. A further decrease in pneumococcal disease in conjunction with considerable societal cost savings could be expected from replacing PCV13 with PCV15 within the routine infant immunization program in the United States.

Evaluation of the sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Oakland, United States, 2015-2019: A quasi-experimental and cost-effectiveness study.

While a 2021 federal commission recommended that the United States government levy a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax to improve diabetes prevention and control efforts, evidence is limited regarding the longer-term impacts of SSB taxes on SSB purchases, health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness. This study estimates the impact and cost-effectiveness of an SSB tax levied in Oakland, California. An SSB tax ($0.01/oz) was implemented on July 1, 2017, in Oakland. The main sample of sales data included 11,627 beverage products, 316 stores, and 172,985,767 product-store-month observations. The main analysis, a longitudinal quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, compared changes in beverage purchases at stores in Oakland versus Richmond, California (a nontaxed comparator in the same market area) before and 30 months after tax implementation (through December 31, 2019). Additional estimates used synthetic control methods with comparator stores in Los Angeles, California. Estimates were inputted into a closed-cohort microsimulation model to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal costs (in Oakland) from 6 SSB-associated disease outcomes. In the main analysis, SSB purchases declined by 26.8% (95% CI -39.0 to -14.7, p < 0.001) in Oakland after tax implementation, compared with Richmond. There were no detectable changes in purchases of untaxed beverages or sweet snacks or purchases in border areas surrounding cities. In the synthetic control analysis, declines in SSB purchases were similar to the main analysis (-22.4%, 95% CI -41.7% to -3.0%, p = 0.04). The estimated changes in SSB purchases, when translated into declines in consumption, would be expected to accrue QALYs (94 per 10,000 residents) and significant societal cost savings (>$100,000 per 10,000 residents) over 10 years, with greater gains over a lifetime horizon. Study limitations include a lack of SSB consumption data and use of sales data primarily from chain stores. An SSB tax levied in Oakland was associated with a substantial decline in volume of SSBs purchased, an association that was sustained more than 2 years after tax implementation. Our study suggests that SSB taxes are effective policy instruments for improving health and generating significant cost savings for society.

Cost-Utility Analysis of Deep Learning and Trained Human Graders for Diabetic Retinopathy Screening in a Nationwide Program.

Deep learning (DL) for screening diabetic retinopathy (DR) has the potential to address limited healthcare resources by enabling expanded access to healthcare. However, there is still limited health economic evaluation, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, on this subject to aid decision-making for DL adoption. In the context of a middle-income country (MIC), using Thailand as a model, we constructed a decision tree-Markov hybrid model to estimate lifetime costs and outcomes of Thailand's national DR screening program via DL and trained human graders (HG). We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the two strategies. Sensitivity analyses were performed to probe the influence of modeling parameters. From a societal perspective, screening with DL was associated with a reduction in costs of ~ US$ 2.70, similar quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) of + 0.0043, and an incremental net monetary benefit of ~ US$ 24.10 in the base case. In sensitivity analysis, DL remained cost-effective even with a price increase from US$ 1.00 to US$ 4.00 per patient at a Thai willingness-to-pay threshold of ~ US$ 4.997 per QALY gained. When further incorporating recent findings suggesting improved compliance to treatment referral with DL, our analysis models effectiveness benefits of ~ US$ 20 to US$ 50 depending on compliance. DR screening using DL in an MIC using Thailand as a model may result in societal cost-savings and similar health outcomes compared with HG. This study may provide an economic rationale to expand DL-based DR screening in MICs as an alternative solution for limited availability of skilled human resources for primary screening, particularly in MICs with similar prevalence of diabetes and low compliance to referrals for treatment.

Increased use of 6-monthly gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist therapy for prostate cancer: a capacity and cost-minimization analysis for England

AimsThe National Health Service (NHS) in England is facing extreme capacity pressures. The backbone of prostate cancer care is gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRHa) therapy, commonly administered every month or 3 months. We estimated the cost and capacity savings associated with increased use of 6-monthly GnRHa therapy in England.MethodsA capacity and cost-minimization model including a societal perspective was developed (in Microsoft Excel) to generate cost and capacity estimates for GnRHa drug acquisition and administration for “Current practice” and for a “Base case” scenario. In the “Base case” scenario, 50% of patients who were receiving monthly or 3-monthly GnRHa therapy in “Current practice” switched/transitioned to a 6-monthly formulation. Cost/capacity estimates were calculated per patient per administration and scaled to annualized population levels. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of individual model assumptions: 1 tested the impact of drug acquisition costs; 2 and 3 tested the level of nurse grade and the time associated with treatment administration, respectively; 4 tested the rate of switch/transition to 6-monthly GnRHa therapy; and 5 tested differing diagnostic patterns following the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.ResultsCompared with “Current practice”, the “Base case” scenario was associated with annual cost savings of £5,164,296 (148,478 fewer appointments/year and 37,119 fewer appointment-hours/year). The largest savings were in drug administration (£2.2 million) and acquisition (£1.6 million) costs. Annual societal cost savings totaled £1.4 million, mainly in reduced appointment-related travel, productivity and leisure time opportunity losses. Increased use of 6-monthly versus monthly or 3-monthly GnRHa therapy consistently achieved system-wide annual cost and capacity savings across all sensitivity analysis scenarios.ConclusionsOur holistic model suggests that switching/transitioning men from monthly or 3- monthly GnRHa therapy to a 6-monthly formulation can reduce NHS cost and capacity pressures and the societal and environmental costs associated with prostate cancer care.

Effects of electric vehicle adoption for state-wide intercity trips on emission saving and energy consumption

Electric vehicles (EVs) mitigate fossil fuel dependency and reduce emissions; they are considered sustainable alternatives to conventional vehicles. To support EVs’ intercity trips, a recent study proposed a charging infrastructure planning framework implemented for the intercity network of Michigan, considering different projected EV market shares for 2030. This study aims to estimate emission savings, including CO2, HC, CO, and NOx, associated with the projected electrification rate and the proposed infrastructure for light-duty vehicles in the earlier study. To this end, a state-of-the-art emission estimation framework is proposed for state-wide intercity trips. The main contributions of the proposed framework include (1) Incorporating a micro emission estimation model (MOVES) for the simulated vehicle trajectories in a large-scaled network considering monthly travel demand, temperature variations, and heterogeneity of vehicles; (2) Contrasting the required investment in charging infrastructure to support EVs intercity trips with the associated emission savings. To this end, the proposed emission estimation framework is benchmarked against a traditional method based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Then, different scenarios of EV adoption are explored to assess potential emission savings. The results suggest that the annual CO2 savings (as the most critical emission) due to intercity travel electrification ranges from 0.34 to 1.45 million ton. The societal cost savings justify the investment in network electrification. Note that only 3.8%–8.8% of the EV energy demand must be satisfied by the DC fast charger network proposed by the charging infrastructure planning framework. This requires 22.45–51.60 BWh annual energy consumption for Michigan’s EV market share for 2030.

Declines in Pregnancies among U.S. Adolescents from 2007 to 2017: Behavioral Contributors to the Trend

Adolescent pregnancies and births in the United States have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We aimed to estimate the contribution of changes in 3 proximal behaviors to these declines among 14- to 18-year-olds for 2007-2017: 1) delays in age at first sexual intercourse, 2) declines in number of sexual partners, and 3) changes in contraceptive use, particularly uptake of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). We adapted an existing iterative dynamic population model and parameterized it using 6 waves of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Youth Risk Behavior Survey. We compared pregnancies from observed behavioral trends with counterfactual scenarios that assumed constant behaviors over the decade. We calculated outcomes by cause, year, and age. We found that changes in these behaviors could explain pregnancy reductions of 496,200, 78,500, and 40,700 over the decade, respectively, with total medical and societal cost savings of $9.71 billion, $1.54 billion, and $796 million. LARC adoption, particularly among 18-year-olds, could explain much of the improvement from contraception use. The 3 factors together did not fully explain observed birth declines; adding a 50% decline in sex acts per partner did. Delays in first sexual intercourse contributed the most to declining births over this decade, although all behaviors considered had major effects. Differences from earlier models could result from differences in years and ages covered. Evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention programs, including comprehensive sex education, youth-friendly reproductive health services, and parental and community support, can continue to address these drivers and reduce teen pregnancy.

Public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States

Background As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US. Methods A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes. Results It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings. Conclusions The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.

39. Declines in Pregnancies Among US Adolescents From 2007 to 2017: Behavioral Contributors to the Trend

Pregnancies and births among adolescents in the United States have dramatically declined in recent decades. We aimed to estimate the contribution of three different proximal changes in behaviors to these declines among 14-18-year-olds over the period 2007-2017: delays in age at first sexual intercourse, declines in the frequency of sexual activity, and changes in contraceptive use, particularly the uptake of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). We adopted an existing mathematical model that predicts number of sex acts per year per adolescent female by age, and the proportion of these that entail use of various types of contraception. We parameterized the model using predicted values from regressions based on six waves of the CDC’s Youth Risk Behavior Survey. We determined mean contraceptive failure rates from the literature. We calibrated our model to reported births using data from the National Vital Statistics System and the Guttmacher Institute. Pregnancy-related costs were calculated using both medical costs for all outcomes and costs to society for adolescent childbearing. Changes in the three behaviors (delays in age at first sexual intercourse, declines in subsequent frequency of sexual activity, and changes in contraceptive use) consistent with levels seen in our data resulted in reductions of 496,000, 78,000, and 56,000 pregnancies over the decade, respectively, with total medical and societal cost savings of $9.7 billion, $1.5 billion, and $1.1 billion. LARC adoption, particularly among 18-year-olds, explained much of the improvements from contraception use. The three measures together accounted for 38% of the observed decline in teen births over the decade. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on a fourth behavior—number of coital acts per partner—and found that a 50% reduction predicted births that closely matched observed data. Reported changes in sexual behavior among adolescents prevented an estimated 630,000 pregnancies and resulted in $12 billion cost savings over the decade. The LARC contribution was mainly seen among 18-year-olds. Comprehensive sex education should continue to build on existing strengths in terms of delaying age at first sexual intercourse, while further enhancing knowledge and access to contraception for all, and especially for those under 18.

A cost-minimisation analysis of performing point-of-care ultrasonography on patients with vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy in general practice: a decision analytical model

BackgroundSpotting and light vaginal bleeding are common and usually harmless symptoms in early pregnancy. Still, vaginal bleeding may be the first sign of an abortion and often causes distress to pregnant women and leads to an expectation of an ultrasonography examination of the uterus. As point-of-care ultrasonography (POCUS) is increasingly being integrated into general practice, these patients may be clinically evaluated and managed by general practitioners (GPs). This can potentially reduce referrals of patients from the primary to the secondary healthcare sector resulting in societal cost-savings.The primary purpose of this study was to investigate whether the accessibility of POCUS in general practice for patients with vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy is cost-saving compared to usual practice where GPs do not have access to POCUS. A secondary purpose of this study was to estimate a remuneration for GPs performing POCUS on these patients in general practice.MethodsA cost-minimisation analysis was based on a decision tree model reflecting the two alternatives: general practice with and without GPs having access to POCUS. The robustness of the model results was investigated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the following deterministic sensitivity analyses: one-way analyses for the model input parameters and a scenario analysis with a change from a societal to a healthcare sector perspective.An expected remuneration reflecting the add-on cost of Danish GPs performing POCUS was estimated based on the related costs: cost of an ultrasonography scanner, GP’s time consumption, ultrasonography training, and utensils per scanning.ResultsThe difference in average cost between the two alternatives from a societal perspective was estimated to be €110, in favour of general practice with GPs using POCUS. The deterministic sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of the results to plausible changes in the input parameters.The expected remuneration for performing POCUS in this specific setting was estimated to be €32 per examination.ConclusionHaving GPs perform POCUS on patients with vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy is cost-saving compared to usual practice. The results should be taken with caution as this study was based on early modelling with uncertainties associated with the input parameters in the model.

An economic evaluation of reducing colorectal cancer surveillance intensity.

Aim: Analyze the impact of national implementation of 'low intensity' post-treatment colorectal cancer surveillance compared with current practices. Materials & methods: Create a population-level Markov model to estimate impacts of expansion of low versus high intensity surveillance post-treatment on healthcare utilization, costs and caregiver time loss. Results: Shifting to low intensity colorectal cancer surveillance would reduce patient burden by 301,830h per patient annually over 5years. Cost reductions over 5years were US$43.5million for Medicare and US$4.2million for Medicaid. Total societal cost savings equaled US$104.2million. Conclusion: National implementation of low intensity post-treatment colorectal cancer surveillance has the potential to significantly reduce burden and costs on patients and their caregivers with no added risks to health.