Effects of electric vehicle adoption for state-wide intercity trips on emission saving and energy consumption

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) mitigate fossil fuel dependency and reduce emissions; they are considered sustainable alternatives to conventional vehicles. To support EVs’ intercity trips, a recent study proposed a charging infrastructure planning framework implemented for the intercity network of Michigan, considering different projected EV market shares for 2030. This study aims to estimate emission savings, including CO2, HC, CO, and NOx, associated with the projected electrification rate and the proposed infrastructure for light-duty vehicles in the earlier study. To this end, a state-of-the-art emission estimation framework is proposed for state-wide intercity trips. The main contributions of the proposed framework include (1) Incorporating a micro emission estimation model (MOVES) for the simulated vehicle trajectories in a large-scaled network considering monthly travel demand, temperature variations, and heterogeneity of vehicles; (2) Contrasting the required investment in charging infrastructure to support EVs intercity trips with the associated emission savings. To this end, the proposed emission estimation framework is benchmarked against a traditional method based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Then, different scenarios of EV adoption are explored to assess potential emission savings. The results suggest that the annual CO2 savings (as the most critical emission) due to intercity travel electrification ranges from 0.34 to 1.45 million ton. The societal cost savings justify the investment in network electrification. Note that only 3.8%–8.8% of the EV energy demand must be satisfied by the DC fast charger network proposed by the charging infrastructure planning framework. This requires 22.45–51.60 BWh annual energy consumption for Michigan’s EV market share for 2030.