Social Forecasting Research Articles

Социальная память в свете исследования информационного пространства и времени

This article deals with the philosophical analysis of social memory in the conditions of the development of today’s information society. In the paper, the social and intellectual cross-sections of information space and time are investigated. These cross-sections are directly related to the analysis of society’s legal consciousness, which seems to, so to say, lag behind the reflections about information space and time. The authors note that social space and time are formed through achieving the unity of information space and time. This is largely facilitated by social memory, which in its essence is a culture, and culture is connected with self-awareness. Culture as memory – historical and moral, obtained through social practice – provides the practice of material and spiritual production. Social memory acts as a kind of qualitative indicator of the state of society and contributes to the transition of information into knowledge, whose elements are characterized by the intense nature of their interaction. This intensity is explained by the fact that knowledge, unlike information, stands guard over the past, protecting it from external attempts to present anything positive that had been as something that had never happened and make it disappear in the annals of time. Philosophy is related to the analysis of the ultimate grounds of information space and time, which increases the intensity of interaction between the elements of the social system. At the same time, social memory increases the degree of interaction between existing values. It should be noted that social memory is very important for further research on the functioning of information society. It is a prerequisite for social forecasting of the development of cultural and social relations. Social memory is a way of existence of knowledge as a form of realization of human creative potential.

Battlefield diary as a source for war-anthropological research (based on the ego-documents of submarine sailor G.I. Sennikov)

The research is relevant due to the fact that historical, anthropological and psychological study of new ego-documents provides a significant resource for understanding the present time and social forecasting. The purpose of the article is to study ego-documents written during the Great Patriotic War by G.I. Sennikov, the submarine sailor of the Northern Fleet, with the help of contemporary historical, anthropological and psychological approaches. The research of this source of private origin was proven to be productive in the context of principal directions and key issues of war-historical anthropology: psychology of combat and combatants, soldiers’ fatalism, the psychology of the interpersonal interactions of service members, psychology of the war-time daily routine, history of emotions. The biographical method allowed to reconstruct the life story of Georgiy Sennikov, his comrades-in-arms and commanding officers back, and moreover, to present the events of the Great Patriotic War as a defining moment of his life and creative work.

Importance Of Forecasting In Tourism And Hospitality Business

This article analysis the importance of forecasting in tourism and hospitality. In addition, the main task of the article is to forecast the economic processes associated with the sale of services and products in the regions and tourist facilities, identify future trends and factors affecting tourism, forecast the development of tourism infrastructure, integration into the international tourism market, pricing policy, international tourism, an in-depth and extensive study of issues such as the role of research in development. Financial and social forecasting in a market economy is the logical forecast of things to come dependent on the past, the laws of improvement, patterns of the present, and the meaning of future advancement objectives and targets. Forecasting is vital in the hypothesis and practice of dealing with the nation's economy. The travel industry ought to make a solid financial reason for the new statehood, which is resolved to move to market relations, to utilize every one of the assets, to carry the economy into the positions of prosperous, economically developed countries.

Public administration tools: Forecasting vs Designing

The article discusses the expediency of abandoning the tool of social forecasting in the practice of public administration in favor of planning and design methods. The methodological basis rests on the conceptual imperative of the impossibility to produce adequate forecasts in the modern world, which is supported by such respected researchers as Douglas North, George Soros, Nassim Taleb and Arnold Toynbee. The fairness of this thesis is illustrated using methods of comparison and analysis. The study analyses the main factors that cast doubt on the possibility and expediency of preserving the tool of social prognostics: the failure of the scenario forecast format; the need for foreknowledge of events rather than values of traditional macro-parameters; the extension of Arnold Toynbee’s principle from a historical retrospective to studying the prospects; the economic growth rate indicator (GDP) losing its indicative universality and the emergence of alternative measures of social development (Gross National Happiness, culture and environment preservation); critical attitude of the intellectual elite to the possibility of social forecasting; unreliability of the source statistics; the expectation of the end of economic growth, a change in the development regime and quantitative forecasting devaluation by the leading experts – Douglas North, Robert Lucas, Tom Piketty, Richard Heinberg; the completion of the mission of capitalism in the form of the Neo-Malthusian trap and robotomics (mass introduction of robots to the economy). The authors prove that amid fading interest in traditional forecasting, alternative prognostication methods are emerging, such as planning, designing, futurology, foresight and strategic intelligence. Devaluation of forecast tools leads to the need to change the old doctrine of public administration, based on forecast documents, to a new one implying a transition to active construction of the future through directive designing and planning. The theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in substantiating the principles of a new management system: expanding the planning and design horizon (up to 30 years); introducing a mechanism for implementing plans and projects; introducing mechanisms for pre-project foresight; creating a twolevel economic management system; and moving from the quantity paradigm to the quality one.

The Importance of Worldview Paradigms in Formation of the Conceptual Foundation Social Forecast

Introduction . Forecasting in social philosophy is aimed at anticipating and forming a conceptual image of the future society. The methodological basis for constructing a development scheme for achieving the desired state of the social system is ideological and cultural-historical paradigms. A philosophical analysis of the historical process, despite all its diversity, allows us to identify fundamental determinants that are used for geopolitical shifts in the world. The unification of the nature of the interaction algorithms does not mean the exclusion of national interests and the levelling of the civilizational characteristics of the actors. The main goal is formulated in the context of the need to reach a compromise acceptable to all parties in the face of competition in the geopolitical space. In a situation of confrontation, attitudes aimed at one-sided gain will inevitably adjust the parameters of social forecast on the part of the actors who are regarded as the object of such influence. Methodology and sources. As a methodological basis for work, the authors use the philosophical methodology of comparative analysis on the material of worldview and political narratives in geopolitical scenarios, which are basic for the conceptual substantiation of ways to achieve specific political goals. The article analyzes the paradigm of civilisational globalisation and expert-prognostic recommendations substantiating influence mechanisms for the implementation of tasks aimed at isolation of social systems whose values, from the point of view of the Western political elite, are incompatible with liberalism. Results and discussion. The article examines the features of social forecasting, which are determined by the availability of an objective resource base for the implementation of the intended goals and the mechanism for making political decisions. Due to the large number of variables in society that affect the dynamics of its development, the presence of a subjective factor makes it possible to realize the variability of its development. Competition of the geopolitical interests of the main actors in the historical process increases the range of uncertainty in the ways and mechanisms for achieving the set goals. The subjects of political control determine the specifics of the formation of an adequate response in response to the doctrine of unipolar strategic domination. The mobilization of economic and political resources allows maintaining civilizations identity in opposition to expansionary geopolitical strategies. Conclusion. In the real world, liberal values do not have the status of general universality. Theoretical and methodological principles in the formation of social prognosis become the most important link in modern conditions. In the sphere of geopolitics, Russia should position itself as a humanitarian-oriented political force, ensuring the preservation of traditions and the identity of all peoples. This would help to create a platform for uniting social movements advocating similar world view positions in the political struggle.

SOCIAL FORECASTING: A literature review of research promoted by the United States National Security System to model human behavior

The development of new information and communication technologies increased the volume of information flows within society. For the security forces, this phenomenon presents new opportunities for collecting, processing and analyzing information linked with the opportunity to collect a vast and diverse amount data, and at the same time it requires new organizational and individual competences to deal with the new forms and huge volumes of information. Our study aimed to outline the research areas funded by the US defense and intelligence agencies with respect to social forecasting. Based on bibliometric techniques, we clustered 2688 articles funded by US defense or intelligence agencies in five research areas: a) Complex networks, b) Social networks, c) Human reasoning, d) Optimization algorithms, and e) Neuroscience. After that, we analyzed qualitatively the most cited papers in each area. Our analysis identified that the research areas are compatible with the US intelligence doctrine. Besides that, we considered that the research areas could be incorporated in the work of security forces provided that basic training be offered. The basic training would not only enhance capabilities of law enforcement agencies but also help safeguard against (unwitting) biases and mistakes in the analysis of data.

Державне регулювання соціально-економічного відновлення Українського Донбасу (мемуарно-аналітичний огляд альтернативних варіантів державних рішень, прийнятих у 1991- 2020 рр.). Частина 2. Стратегічне соціальне планування унітарної держави в умовах впровадження бюджетного федералізму

The article reveals the possibilities of implementing the doctrine of three "S": social forecasting, social planning and social management in the formation of strategies for regional development of Luhansk and Donetsk regions and Ukraine as a whole. The main components of budgetary federalism of the unitary state with definition of coordinated borders of financial independence of Ukrainian Donbass and state regulation by reproduction of economic and vital activity of the population are considered. The results of the study, the subject of which were the leading components of scientific and methodological support of socio-economic recovery of Ukrainian Donbass, are presented in the form of a memoir-analytical review of fateful state and possible alternative solutions. The object of the study was the chronology, essence, content and validity of decisions. The working hypothesis of the review was to find out the origins of the civil-military conflict between the national authorities in 2014 and the population of Ukrainian Donbass, identifying the causes and factors of the tragedy of both sides 7 years ago in the context of "terror" and "terrorism". The features of state and international terrorism sanctified by Wikipedia are considered and their manifestation in the national economy in the processes of introduction of Anglo-Saxon model of open market economy is generalized. The reduction of the role of state influence on regional development in the development of long-term development strategies to achieve the 7th Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015 and 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the period up to 2030 is revealed. The absence of a "goal tree" in the hierarchy and in the time of its coordination with the MDG, SDG and human development indicators was revealed. The close connection of International Geopolitical Business with the holding of the First (2004) and Second (2014) Maidans in Kyiv, the launch of the "ATO" project was revealed. Author's versions of state decisions on the transition of unitary Ukraine to model of budget federalism to strengthen its independence and sovereignty as an alternative to the "ATO" project are revealed. In contrast to the deliberately falsified information on the rating of 2013 of regional human development in Luhansk and Donetsk regions according to the National Methods of 2001, 2012, it is possible to predict 33 indicators of the Regional Human Development Index: 22 growth stimulators and 11 development disincentives. Thanks to this, the strategic and operational goals of the socio-economic reconstruction of Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukrainian Donbass have been determined.

Social Forecasting in Sports: Opportunities for Using the Expert Survey Method

Social Forecasting in Sports: Opportunities for Using the Expert Survey Method

Social forecasting: from foresight to methodology of analysis of social and psychological consequences of the implementation of new technologies

Social forecasting: from foresight to methodology of analysis of social and psychological consequences of the implementation of new technologies

How the Russian population went through the crisis of the second half of the 2010s

Basing on the data of the population social well-being monitoring, held by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting of RANEPA in the period from 2015 to 2019, expectations, evaluations, adaptive strategies and results of various population groups in the second half of the 2010s have been analyzed. The stages of “new reality” perception are shown — from expectations of quick escape to the trajectory of positive development to the growth of alarmist moods and then to distribution of stabilizing trend by the second half of 2019. The new forms of adaptive behavior are revealed, the most widespread and rapidly reproducible of which is reducing all types of expenses that led to decrease in the level and quality of life of various social groups. However, over time, the adaptive practices associated with labor and financial activity have been developed and spread basing on use of human capital. The characteristics and integral estimations of the country population social well-being have been analyzed. The data show that the scarcity of the positive social dynamics’ capacity actualizes the socioeconomic risks caused by the unfavorable situation with the virus.

Using social norms and norms in social forecasting

Using social norms and norms in social forecasting

The main conceptual directions of the formation and development of the agrarian structure in the Central Black Earth macro-region

The growth of modern systemic challenges in the context of globalization and integration processes leads to the creation of an effective regional agrarian structure, as one of the most pressing problems of scientific research in economic and social forecasting. The formation of an effective modern agrarian structure and the prospects for its long-term development will largely be determined by state policy, the institution of selective structural support for the state. The agrarian policy of the state to improve the institutional agrarian structure in the region on the basis of foreign and domestic experience should: - contribute to the growth in the number of family peasant farms in all sub-sectors of agriculture in all territories of the region; - create favorable economic conditions that stimulate the economy to create consumer (service) cooperatives of various specializations; - to economically stimulate large agro-industrial formations to interact with small forms of agribusiness. The conceptual directions and mechanisms of the long-term development of the agrarian structure in the Central Chernozem Region are defined, which include goals, stages, principles and objectives of the long-term development of the agrarian structure in the region, legal regulation, financial support, innovative development, the development of markets for agricultural products measures to implement the concept.

The Russian Population’s Adaptation to the New Economic Reality

ABSTRACT The article considers the adaptive behavior of Russians during 2015–2017 (a period that is often referred to as the “new reality”) by analyzing how Russians perceive the prospects of economic development, and the available resources they can use to formulate their strategies for adapting to the new conditions. We likewise describe the available resources that Russians can bring to bear on the situation and the results of their efforts. We used the database produced by the monitoring study “The Social Well-Being of the Population,” which was conducted by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting, (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) via eight rounds of annual representative population surveys with a sample size of 1,600 respondents per each round. The population is not alarmed at the current economic situation, but has little hope for improvement. Most people have adapted not by actively maintaining or improving their material well-being, but by becoming inured to lower consumer standards. Only a fifth of the population has the necessary resources to develop a variety of adaptive strategies, and twice as many people have low resource potential. Apart from restricting their spending, people in the low resource group also turned to the use of private household plots. A third of the population implemented active forms of adaptation associated with a variety of resources.

Systemic Interaction of Center and Regions in Ukraine (basics of national-civilizational security)

The article poses and solves the problem of achieving coordinated interaction between the Center and the Regions as a single, organic and dynamic system of a sovereign independent state. Modern approaches of liberal and planned principles of overcoming bureaucratic and corrupt arbitrariness and urgent resuscitation with intensive revival of economic and vital activity of Ukraine, which is purposefully destroyed under external influence, are considered. The main provisions of the report of the President of France Emmanuel Macron in August 2019 on the Great Fracture in European and world civilization processes are revealed. The main ideas and directions of the Plan of the Great Reset and implementation of the fourth industrial revolution of June 2020 of the Davos World Economic Forum are presented. A meaningful chronology of the formation of the organizational mechanism for the introduction of inclusive capitalism and its management and staffing is given. The equivalence of the principles of homeostasis of economic and biological systems is considered by comparing the restoration of the viability of the global network economy and marine biological systems (on the example of a vampire octopus). Generalized signs of international and state terrorism in Ukraine. The necessity to change the Anglo-Saxon model of open market economy to socially oriented one using the doctrine of 3 "S": social forecasting, social planning and social management is substantiated. It is proposed to use the experience of the United States and Great Britain on social planning and the European financial model of people's capitalism. Based on the proposals of Emelyanov O.S. to enhance the role of the Center in cooperation with the Regions, it is recommended to develop National and Regional Human Development Programs. It is proposed to develop a Planning Code of Ukraine based on the provisions of the model of socially adequate management with encyclopedic criteria for their use at the national and regional levels of government.

СОЦИАЛЬНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ: ДОСТИЖЕНИЯ, НЕДОСТАТКИ, ПУТИ СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЯ

СОЦИАЛЬНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ: ДОСТИЖЕНИЯ, НЕДОСТАТКИ, ПУТИ СОВЕРШЕНСТВОВАНИЯ

Роль соціального проекту в розвитку паліативної та хоспісної допомоги

The aim of the study. Emphasis is placed on the aspects of the development of social work in palliative and hospice care, in particular, through the implementation of a social project by the students - future social workers. The purpose of the social project implementation is to provide quality social services to people in need of palliative and hospice care, in particular, moral and psychological support, social and household assistance through the involvement of volunteers and benefactors. A set of research methods is presented to help implement the practical project "Hospice: Philosophy of Care" (developed by the student-teaching creative group of Rivne State University for the Humanities). The preparatory stage of project work requires the use of sociological methods of social work (interviewing patients and their habitat); the research stage requires organizational methods (conducting promotions, searching for trustees), social training of the volunteers; at the planning stage organizational methods were also used, in part - the technology of social modeling; at the activity stage psychological methods (work with a case) were used, accordingly, a complex of tactics of individual work; at the analytical stage organizational methods, social counseling and planning, social training of volunteers were used; at regenerative stage the elements of social forecasting, modeling were used. The result. It is substantiated that due to the strengthening of moral and psychological support and social assistance through the involvement of volunteers and benefactors, the quality of social services in palliative and hospice care institutions will increase. The step-by-step structure of realization of the social project has been developed, the maintenance and methodology of realization of the stages of the project have been described. The universality of the proposed methodology for finding potential benefactors and other socially vulnerable categories is emphasized. The prospects for further research are associated with the disclosure of opportunities and results of social projects to solve existing problems in social work in palliative and hospice care.

Formation of Civic Responsibility in Russia

The concept of civic responsibility is poorly studied by modern political science and is not sufficiently used in the analysis of the Russian political situation. This article attempts to develop the concept of civic responsibility as a category in political science using political, sociological and institutional approaches. The scientific novelty lies in the deployment of the concept of civic responsibility in the institutional context of civil society and the state. The identification of the normative and value structure of civic responsibility and its congruence in the institutional environment and the assessment of the development potential of civic responsibility will allow the better understanding of Russian politics and Russian society, as well as the expansion of the possibilities for influencing the process of the formation of civic responsibility as a stable foundation of modern politics. For empirical verification of theoretical assumptions, we used the data of an all-Russian representative survey of the population aged 18 years and older conducted by the comparative political research department of the Institute of Sociology of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences (with the support of the Center of Social Forecasting and Marketing) in June 2019. The size of the sampled population was 700 people (OSPI-2019).

МАЙБУТНЄ ЯК ФІЛОСОФСЬКА. ПРОБЛЕМА Частина ІІ

З проблемою детермінованості майбутнього пов’язана проблема меж і можливостей нашого пізнання майбутнього. Інший аспект проблеми стосується способів пізнання майбутнього. На цьому напрямі напрацьований великий досвід і він потребує осмислення.Майбутнє для людини є чимось більшим ніж пізнавальним образом, воно є екзистенційним станом людини. Людина постійно перебуває в майбутньому, залишаючись при цьому в теперішньому і, частково, в минулому. Цей суб’єктивний стан майбутнього людини є особливою темою філософського осмислення.

Transformation of social environment in the application of alternative energy sources

Alternative energy in the social environment changes several parameters that can be interpreted as a process of changing the social and economic environment. In the article, the authors define indicator parameters that show the dynamics of changing the social and economic formation on the example of accompanying changes. The authors identify that alternative energy not only determines the change of social and behavioral patterns, but also completely reformats methods and forms of applying technologies in the social environment. The article describes the changes that various markets experience when applying alternative energy methods to determine the criteria for variability. The novelty of the research is determined by the fact that for the first time in the scientific environment, a modeling method is applied affecting not only the forecast of changes in the state of a regional or local market. It also shows the possibilities of technology transfer in the nonindustrial sector related to the social environment. In particular, the labor market is socially oriented, which in the process of applying the alternative energy sector not only will be changed according to principles of applying socially oriented technologies, but uses modern methods of technological development for evolution of the social environment. The practical application of the developed technology for monitoring the social environment can be represented in programs of social and economic forecasting of territories where alternative energy is used.

Методология социального прогнозирования и планирования на предприятии

Методология социального прогнозирования и планирования на предприятии