以舟山海岸带为研究区域,结合采样数据和社会经济发展数据,构建以社会因子、经济因子和自然因子为3个维度因子的海岸带生态系统综合承载力评估的指标体系。并参照经济学中的AD-AS模型,改进成综合总供给-综合总需求模型(SAD-SAS模型),根据生态系统中总供给与总需求之间的平衡关系,来计算舟山海岸带综合承载力量值,并尝试将海岸带综合承载力值的分类标准在原来的基础上分为5类,最后评价其所处的承载力水平。研究结果表明:舟山海岸带综合承载力在2005-2008年时处于微幅上升的阶段,年均增速为6.5%,在2008-2009年开始出现稍微的下降,下降幅度为3%;SAD-SAS模型作为生态学与经济学交叉的模型,为海岸带综合承载力评价提供了一种新思路。;Coastal zone, where terrene, ocean and atmosphere interact on each other, is the richest region on the earth. In this study, it's a range that 0 meter isobaths extends to the city towards land and to -10 meters isobaths towards sea. During a certain period and within the geographical scope, taking the sustainable development of coastal resources and environment as a rule, synthetic carrying capacity refers to the ability how much population size and industry scale that coastal zone can bear. The carrying capacity could warn the state of environment and resource and make ecosystem staying healthy.<br>AD-AS Model puts the aggregate demand and aggregate supply in a frame of reference to explain the decision to GDP and price level in economy. In this research, we regard the carrying capacity as the relation between human demand and ecosystem supply, which makes it to be a modified AD-AS, synthetic aggregate demand synthetic-aggregate supply model, the SAD-SAS model for short. The SAD-SAS model has two forms: the short-run one and long-run one. The former indicates state of carrying capacity, and the latter shows its changes in the time dimension. Divide synthetic aggregate supply by synthetic aggregate demand, and you will get the carrying capacity in coastal ecosystem at some point.<br>Then, with the sample data and yearbook data of coastal zone in Zhou Shan, we build a coastal indicator system for coastal carrying capacity assessment, which includes social indicators, economic indicators and natural indicators. The system consists of two parts: synthetic aggregate supply and synthetic aggregate demand. The former includes resource supply, economic development, technology support and import from outside; while the latter contains social pressure, development intensity, surrounding stress and export to outside. Based on the processed data under the same standard and indicator system, SAD-SAS is used to calculate the value of synthetic carrying capacity. Finally,we assess which level the coastal zone is. Synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone of Zhou Shan is respectively no-load, no-load, no-load, loadable and loadable from 2005 to 2009. On average, it has increased 6.5% from 2005 to 2008 while it begins to decrease in 2009 by 3%.<br> These results demonstrate that: compared with the developed cities, ecological environment is better in Zhou Shan and has more potential. The carrying capacity value is relative, and it is closely bound up with the normal value. Consequently, the calculated carrying capacity value shows the distance between the study area and normal area, and it changes companying with the chosen area. The assessment result is divided into 5 kinds instead of 3, which is more refined and will reflect the tiny change in ecosystem. Also, there are some focuses to modify and discuss. Firstly, the indicator system needs to improve and complete, especially in marine parts. Secondly, the human activities have a significant effect on coastal environment. But it is hard to quantify, which makes it difficult to assess the carrying capacity. Involving ecology, geography and economic, SAD-SAS model will provide a new method for carrying capacity assessment.
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