气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性评价方法及其应用分析

Abstract

气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性与适应性是当前国内外水资源研究的热点问题之一。本文以中国省级行政区为评价单元，针对水资源供需矛盾问题，开展了气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性评价的指标系统与方法研究。与传统的水资源脆弱性评价不同，本文提出的脆弱性不仅考虑了自然干旱地理分布的脆弱性要素，同时考虑了社会经济和环境等方面的联系，选取了相关的8个指标，并利用层次分析法确定指标权重。初步研究表明，水资源脆弱性在南方地区较低，在北方地区较高；相同或相近的水资源脆弱性评价结果，可能是不同原因造成的；随着水资源脆弱性的增加，社会经济因素逐渐起主导作用。根据评价结果，本研究从提升应对气候变化适应能力、提高用水效率、实施用水总量控制、开发新水源和治理水污染等方面提出了相应的适应性对策。 Water vulnerability research is the focus of water resources research recent days, and is an impor- tant method to assess the impact of natural and social-economic factors to the water resources systems, and also could be the basis of adaptation. In this paper, 8 indicators for water vulnerability were identified and categorized including the natural and social-economic factors. The weights of each indicator were calculated by the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The assessment was applied on China, and each province was one assess- ment unit. The result shows that southChinahas the lower water vulnerability, and the northChinahas the higher water vulnerability. The similar assessment results could be caused by various reasons. As the increase of water vulnerability, the social-economic indicators become overwhelming. According to the results, this paper has advanced some adaptations on improving the adaptive ability to climate change and water efficiency, applying the gross water utilization control, using new water resources and control the water pollution.