Snowy Winters Research Articles

Smaller does not mean worse: variation of roe deer antlers from two distant populations in their mechanical and structural properties and mineral profile

AbstractAntler size, structure, composition and mechanics have been shown to reflect nutrition, climate and body effects in red deer, but studies have only assessed effects on size in the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). Roe deer show little sexual dimorphism, lower inter‐male fighting and could form groups during part of the year but does not form harems, in contrast to red deer. Thus, it is interesting to assess how nutrition and habitat affects investment in antlers as compared to red deer. Antlers were collected from adult males of two game estates differing in location, climate and management: 13 from the south‐east of Spain (mild winter, hot summer, dry habitat and rich supplementary feeding), and 10 specimens came from central‐southern part of the Czech Republic (snowy winter, mild summer, humid habitat and limited supplementary feeding). After measuring whole‐antler parameters, a destructive sampling was performed to obtain a full‐transversal section and cortical bone samples from two sampling position along the main beam. Then bone structure, mechanical properties (three‐point bending test, impact test) and the mineral profile were studied. Roe deer from Spain had heavier and longer antlers than Czech roe deer. Their bone material had a higher mechanical quality, although Czech roe deer compensated by developing antlers with thicker walls. Mineral composition also differs, particularly by greater contents in Czech antlers in 3 minerals associated with nutrient stress: Fe, K and Zn. We concluded that the differences found between populations may be caused by differences in habitat quality and diet, in a similar way as reported for red deer, despite interspecific differences. Our study suggests that habitat affects antler parameters and, as previous results in red deer, suggests that improving diet quality may affect size, composition and mechanical quality of antler material. Certainly, antlers of roe deer provide information useful for population management.

АНАЛИЗ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ РАСТИТЕЛЬНОГО ПОКРОВА В СЕВЕРНОЙ ЧАСТИ УБСУНУРСКОЙ КОТЛОВИНЫ

To analyze changes in the vegetation cover on the territory of the Russian part of the Uvs Nuur Basin the images from the Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 satellites for the summer periods of 1988 and 2019 were used. Satellite images were processed in the GRASS geographic information system using the SMAP classification method. The Uvs Nuur Basin is located on the border of the Republic of Tuva and Mongolian People’s Republic. The region is characterized by a sharply continental climate with low snowy winters, hot and dry summers. A mosaic landscape structure of typical, dry and desert steppes is presented on the flat territory of the northern part of the Uvs Nuur Basin. Based on satellite information and the cartographic information, 9 landunits were identified in the studied territory of the Uvs Nuur Basin. According to the satellite images, the total area of the Russian part of the Uvs Nuur Basin is 19.5 thousand km2 . Changes in the areas of the selected landunits are estimated as a result of the satellite images classification. From the obtained results it was found that over the past 30 years, the area of cultivated fields in the northern part of the Uvs Nuur Basin has decreased by 80 %. Steppe vegetation is gradually occupying the abandoned arable lands. Desertification processes are ongoing in the Uvs Nuur Basin territory. There was a reduction in the area of meadows and an expansion of the territories of dry and desert steppes with the participation of shrubs of Caragana Bunge.

Synthetic Snow Substitutes as the Basis for the Recreation and Sports Facilities Sustainable Operation

Climatic changes and a series of snowy winters significantly affect the operation duration of winter sports centers, the basis of which is the stable snow cover presence. Modern technical capabilities make it possible to organize the recreation and sports facilities year-round work, where slopes equipped with materials and technological systems replacing natural resources are used as an alternative to natural snow cover. The artificial snow use history in different countries is presented. The aim of the study is to determine the feasibility of using synthetic coatings for organizing all-weather operation of sports facilities and winter specialization recreation. The reasons for the complexes demand in the real house vicinity, associated with the people of different ages desire to engage in their favorite type of activity, regardless of natural conditions, are determined. A modern social demand is the lever for using artificial snow substitutes on modern high-tech complexes. The possibility of using Snow Plast 365 modular brush coatings as a multifunctional material manufactured taking into account the various sports characteristics is considered. The demand for the Russian synthetic brush coating is shown, the area of ​​its use and the sales dynamics are indicated. To confirm the implemented projects’ visibility, the material contains drawings and diagrams.

Decreased snowpack and warmer temperatures reduce the negative effects of interspecific competitors on regenerating conifers

The persistence and distribution of species under changing climates can be affected by both direct effects of the environment and indirect effects via biotic interactions. However, the relative importance of direct and indirect climate effects on recruitment stages is poorly understood. We conducted a manipulative experiment to test the multiway interaction of direct and competition-mediated effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics. Following stand-replacing fire in California mixed-conifer forest, we seeded two conifer species, Pinus ponderosa and Abies concolor, in two consecutive years, one relatively normal and the other with an unusually wet and snowy winter followed by a hot summer. We additionally manipulated snow amount and competitive environment for both years. We found the effects of the snowpack treatment were contingent upon other abiotic factors (year of seeding) and biotic factors (shrub competition). Under ambient snowpack, shrubs reduced recruitment of P. ponderosa seedlings, but this negative effect disappeared with reduced snowpack. Additionally, the effects of shrubs on seedlings differed between cohorts and by life stage. In a warmer future, decreased snowpack may increase seedling emergence, but hotter and drier summers will decrease seedling survival; the effects of shrubs on conifers may become less negative as temperatures increase.

Delineation of high resolution climate regions over the Korean Peninsula using machine learning approaches.

In this research, climate classification maps over the Korean Peninsula at 1 km resolution were generated using the satellite-based climatic variables of monthly temperature and precipitation based on machine learning approaches. Random forest (RF), artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machines (SVM) were used to develop models. Training and validation of these models were conducted using in-situ observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) from 2001 to 2016. The rule of the traditional Köppen-Geiger (K-G) climate classification was used to classify climate regions. The input variables were land surface temperature (LST) of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), monthly precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 product, and the Digital Elevation Map (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The overall accuracy (OA) based on validation data from 2001 to 2016 for all models was high over 95%. DEM and minimum winter temperature were two distinct variables over the study area with particularly high relative importance. ANN produced more realistic spatial distribution of the classified climates despite having a slightly lower OA than the others. The accuracy of the models using high altitudinal in-situ data of the Mountain Meteorology Observation System (MMOS) was also assessed. Although the data length of the MMOS data was relatively short (2013 to 2017), it proved that the snowy, dry and cold winter and cool summer class (Dwc) is widely located in the eastern coastal region of South Korea. Temporal shifting of climate was examined through a comparison of climate maps produced by period: from 1950 to 2000, from 1983 to 2000, and from 2001 to 2013. A shrinking trend of snow classes (D) over the Korean Peninsula was clearly observed from the ANN-based climate classification results. Shifting trends of climate with the decrease/increase of snow (D)/temperate (C) classes were clearly shown in the maps produced using the proposed approaches, consistent with the results from the reanalysis data of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC).

Corn Belt rain clobbers chemicals

Chemical suppliers to the US agricultural sector are blaming bad weather in the Corn Belt for a difficult year so far. Warnings about lackluster sales for the first half are piling up from firms such as Novozymes, DuPont, and Corteva Agriscience. A cold and snowy winter, followed by a rainy and cool spring, has caused flooding along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers in Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, and South Dakota. Novozymes says it experienced a 2% sales decline during the first 5 months of the year. Nearly 20% of the company’s annual sales come from supplying products such as yeast and amylases to the ethanol industry. “Severe weather in the US Midwest are [sic] impacting grain-processing volumes and challenging the planting season,” the Danish company says. “The recovery of our US Bioenergy business has not progressed as expected, and demand in some emerging markets is soft.” Similarly, last month DuPont

Timing and Potential Causes of 19th-Century Glacier Advances in Coastal Alaska Based on Tree-Ring Dating and Historical Accounts

The Little Ice Age (LIA), ca. CE 1250-1850, was a cold period of global extent, with the nature and timing of reduced temperatures varying by region. The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) is a key location to study the climatic drivers of glacier fluctuations during the LIA because dendrochronologogical techniques can provide precise ages of ice advances and retreats. Here, we use dendrochronology to date the most recent advance of La Perouse Glacier in the Fairweather Range of Southeast Alaska. After maintaining a relatively contracted state since at least CE 1200, La Perouse advanced to its maximum LIA position between CE 1850 and 1895. Like many other glaciers bordering the GOA, the La Perouse Glacier reached this maximum position relatively late in the LIA compared with glaciers in other regions. This is curious because reconstructions of paleoclimate in the GOA region indicate the 19th century was not the coldest period of the LIA. Using newly available paleoclimate data, we hypothesize that a combination of moderately cool summers accompanying the Dalton Solar Minimum and exceptionally snowy winters associated with a strengthened Aleutian Low could have caused these relatively late LIA advances. Such a scenario implies that winter climate processes, which are heavily influenced by ocean-atmospheric variability in the North Pacific region, have modulated these coastal glaciers’ sensitivity to shifts in summer temperatures.

Freezing rain in Jersey in February 1841

AbstractA rare severe freezing rain event affected Jersey, Channel Islands in early February 1841, during a rather cold and snowy winter. A brief explanation is given of the atmospheric conditions and synoptic weather pattern which produce freezing rain. Contemporary diaries, local newspaper reports and other historical information were used to construct a detailed chronology of this extreme weather event. The devastating effects of the glaze on the landscape of the island, the local economy and social life are also documented.

Fighting through the gray.

I roll over in bed and reach for my phone to check the time. “It's 8:30 a.m.!” I say to myself. “How did that happen? I must have turned my alarm off and fallen back to sleep.” After some deep breaths, I manage to drag myself out of bed, get dressed, and make breakfast. At work I try to focus, but most of the day I just sit in a fog, struggling to stay awake. When I head home, I lack the motivation to go to the gym, do errands, or hang out with friends. Instead, I fall asleep on the couch shortly after dinner, only making it to bed after some gentle prodding from my dog. ![Figure][1] ILLUSTRATION: ROBERT NEUBECKER > “I realized that my tiredness and depression came during the gloomy winter months.” Early in my Ph.D., this felt like my near daily routine. I attributed my newfound difficulties to the stress of starting a Ph.D. program and being far from home. But it was odd: Before graduate school, I was an early riser and thought most clearly in the mornings. I couldn't understand why I was suddenly unable to get out of bed. I felt guilty about my lack of focus and frustrated that I was no longer capitalizing on my best working hours. After 2 years, a light bulb went off in my head. I realized that my tiredness and depression came during the gloomy winter months. That was the clue that pointed me toward a solution. I had grown up and gone to college in Arizona, where a lack of sunlight was never an issue. My first experience living elsewhere came when I started graduate school in upstate New York, which is notoriously gray during the winters, with low-hanging clouds blanketing the region day in and day out. The prospect of cold and snowy winters was scary, but I was thrilled to have the opportunity to study in a top program in my field. Once there, I heard people on campus talk—and, unfortunately, joke—about seasonal affective disorder (SAD), a severe form of “winter blues” that's triggered by low light levels. As my health and well-being took a downturn each winter, eventually I realized that SAD might be the cause, and I needed to do something about it. A website suggested an alarm clock that simulates the sunrise, becoming brighter and brighter as your wake-up time approaches. I decided to give that a try. It turned out to be a lifesaver, helping me get out of bed in the morning on time and feeling rested. That first taste of a successful solution spurred me to visit a doctor, who confirmed my self-diagnosis and suggested a few other things I could try. It was a relief to discover that my condition had a name and that I could take steps to feel better. Now in the fifth year of my Ph.D., I no longer dread the arrival of winter because I finally have a solid strategy to deal with SAD. I have a much easier time getting up and starting my day if I stick with a regular routine. So, I wake up when my sunrise-simulating alarm clock tells me to—at the same time each day—and soak up a daily dose of artificial rays by basking in front of a full-spectrum light therapy box. And as much as possible, I make the journey home to sunny Arizona for a few weeks during the winter months, although that's not always feasible on my grad student stipend. Most important, I've learned to be kinder to myself. I've always been a high achiever in all aspects of my life, so it has been difficult to give myself a break when I fall short of my ambitious self-imposed deadlines. The reality is that, despite my best efforts, my winter self still struggles to muster the kind of energy and motivation that propels me during the summer months—and I've come to accept that. My experience with SAD has also heightened my awareness that I need to prioritize my health in the future, when choosing a place to live long term. I'm still glad I chose to attend the grad school I did, but I don't want to keep paying the psychological cost of living in a gloomy place. I know my need for sunshine will limit potential job options, but it's important for me to find a place that works for both my personal and professional life. For now, though, I'm celebrating the fact that the days are getting longer, and spring is just around the corner. [1]: pending:yes

The new winter rapeseed variety “Priz”

Rapeseed takes one of the leading places in the world production of vegetable oils. Winter varieties, which are more productive and economically viable than spring ones, are of the greatest interest. Despite the large number of varieties and hybrids of winter rapeseed registered in the State List of Breeding Achievements Approved for Use in the Russian Federation, the productivity of this crop did not increase for the last 15–20 years. The share of foreign breeding hybrids increased to 90%. All of them have been developed in a mild climate of Europe or America and are poorly adapted to our natural and climatic conditions. It is still important to develop a winter rapeseed variety, tolerant to negative temperature changes, to little snowy winters and adapted to the heavy overwinter conditions of the Rostov region. In 2001–2015 the FSBSI “Donskaya Experimental Station named after L. A. Zhdanov” used the method of cohesive self-pollination to develop the winter rapeseed variety “Priz” from a hybrid population grown on the basis of winter resistant highly productive genotypes identified from the varieties of domestic and foreign selection. The variety is characterized by harmonious ripening, short height, short vegetation and uniformity of plants. The potential productivity of seeds in the conditions of the Rostov region is 4.0–4.5 t/ha. Oil percentage of seeds is 47–50%. The quality of oil and meal meet GOST and international requirements. Plants are slightly responsive to powdery mildew and they are highly tolerant to winter. The variety “Priz” was introduced into the State List of Breeding Achievements of the Russian Federation and approved for use in the North Caucasus (6) cultivation region since 2017.

Rational Way of Forming Stubble Coulisses under North Kazakhstan Conditions

The main limiting factor for increasing yields in the arid steppe conditions of Northern Kazakhstan is moisture. Shoots are usually uneven due to the lack of moisture at the initial stage of their growing. The main source of moisture in this period is winter precipitation. Currently, the following methods of winter precipitation moisture accumulation are used in North Kazakhstan: leaving high standing stubble, seeding coulisses on pure fallow fields, herbicide (chemical) fallow field, snow ridging, harvesting of crops with continuous combining; and forming stubble coulisses. The most preferable way of increasing snow moisture accumulation is the formation of stubble coulisses that can be done in two ways.Research purpose Efficiency evaluation of the ways of forming stubble coulisses.Materials and methods Agroengineering and technological evaluation is used as a main research method of different ways of forming stubble coulisses, which is followed by the selection of a more preferable way.Results and discussion It has been found that in snowy winter both ways of forming stubble coulisses – with alternative passes of a direct combining reaper and a stripping reaper and using a direct combining reaper with a stripper adapter – have shown the same results. However, when there is a little snow in winter, the second way provides more intensive snow accumulation.Conclusions It has been experimentally found that using the direct combining reaper with the stripper adapter decreases labour inputs by 17.8% and total costs by 23.8% as compared to the formation of coulisses by using sequential passes of the direct combining and the stripping reapers. It has been found that the formation of stubble coulisses every 5-9 meters along with in-line para-plowing at a depth of up to 35 cm provides the highest yield increase of in snowy winter as compared to the conventional ways of moisture accumulation.

Japonica w archiwaliach po Bronisławie Piłsudskim w Bibliotece PAU i PAN w Krakowie (8). Korespondencja pani Kimiko Torii do Bronisława oraz list pana Mitsugo Yokoyamy z pokładu S/S Dakota

Japonica in the Archives Left After Bronisław Piłsudski in the Cracow Pau-Pan Academic Library 8. Kimiko Torii’s Letter To Bronisław and Mitsugo Yokoyama’s Letter Written on Board S/S Dakota The present material constitutes the eighth installment of the presentation of Japanese documents preserved with Bronisław Piłsudski’s archives in the Academic Library of the Polish Academy of Sciences and Lettres (PAU) and Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN) in Cracow and includes two letters in facsimile, transliteration, and interpretation in Polish. The first of them has been written in Japanese but in Roman characters (rōmaji) with few insertions in French. Its author, Kimiko Torii was the wife of the renowned Japanese ethnographer and anthropologist Ryūzō Torii who traveled extensively and conducted fieldwork in many places studying numerous cultures, the Ainu, especially the Kuril Ainu, included. Bronisław was personally acquainted with the couple – Ryuzo translated (from German) and published Bronisław’s work “The Aborigines of Sakhalin” (English translation in CWBP 1, 222–235), and Bronisław went to the railway station in Tokyo to see Kimiko off on her way to Mongolia to join her husband there – both conducted research in that country but the primary reason for Kimiko was to go on invitation from a local prince to Harqin (today in Inner Mongolia in China) to replace another Japanese lady in teaching in a school for Mongolian, primarily the prince’s, children – Misako Kawahara. Both ladies left several memoir publications each on their stay and experience accumulated in Mongolia, Kimiko coauthored also some works of academic importance with Ryuzo. Basic data on all the three persons and details concerning some of the publications mentioned have been provided. The letter is personal and, explaining circumstances, constitutes a plea for excuse for failed encounter on a snowy winter evening (beginning of February 1906) at the Toriis’. The other letter has been written by a person from Hiroshima Prefecture named Mitsugo Yokoyama who happened to board S/S Dakota on the way from Japan to the USA as a stowaway. Freezing while in hiding, he was offered a warm blanket from “a Russian” which helped him to survive. The letter does not mention the donor’s name and was probably written as sort of a statement for the captain but also as a letter of the deepest gratitude toward the “Russian”. Finding the moving letter in Cracow allows a supposition that it had been handed over to Piłsudski by its receiver. Kazuhiko Sawada succeeded in tracing the lot of the then lucky beneficiary who survived the journey and his and his family hard times in America (he had six children, five of them allegedly still alive in 2005). Some remarks on the language of the letters and on Bronisław’s nature have also been made. It is the first among all so-far published installments in the Japonica series emerging in co-authorship: Ms. Anna Grądzka prepared the tentative versions of the decipherment of the manuscript originals, and their transliterations and translations within the framework of her MA thesis in Japanese studies at Nicoalus Copernicus University in Toruń.

Regional differences in winter diets of bobcats in their northern range.

When generalist predators have wide geographic ranges, diets may differ dramatically, largely as a result of differing prey communities. Bobcats (Lynx rufus) are widely distributed across southern North America, with their northern range edge occurring in southern Canada and in the northern US states. Within this northern range, bobcats are exposed to cold and snowy winters and a limited number of prey species, conditions that are atypical for most of the range of bobcats. We examined winter diets of bobcats in high elevation and very snowy forests in northwest Montana to determine how these generalist predators managed in these harsh conditions in comparison with elsewhere in the northern range. Bobcats consumed five major prey types: Red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) and Cricetid rodents comprised >78% of the dietary biomass, whereas the larger snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), deer (Odocoileus spp.), and grouse were consumed much less often. The standardized niche breadth of bobcat diets was 0.29; bobcats from across the northern range also routinely ate multiple prey species, although Eastern bobcats appear to consume more lagomorphs than do Western bobcats. These results indicate that bobcats remain generalists in difficult winter conditions while preying primarily on small‐bodied prey, although bobcats have highly variable diets across their northern range.

High-elevation mountain hemlock growth as a surrogate for cool-season precipitation in Crater Lake National Park, USA

Snow dominates the hydrology and climate of the United States’ central Pacific Coast, but because local measurements of snowpack and winter precipitation often extend back only a few decades, observations by themselves are not adequate to describe potential amplitude of wintertime conditions. Here we present a set of updated and extended mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana [Bong.] Carr.) tree-ring width records from Crater Lake National Park, Oregon, and use these data to make inferences about snowpack prior to the start of instrumental monitoring. In July and August 2013, we collected cores from 228 trees at seven high-elevation hemlock stands that surround the crater’s rim. The oldest tree had an inner ring date of CE 1474, and the longest ring-width chronology maintained a satisfactory common signal back to the middle of the 16th century. The growth of high-elevation mountain hemlock is strongly and inversely related to cool-season precipitation, making these records some of the most southerly examples of a robust inverse cool-season moisture signal in North American tree rings. The growth of these snow-limited forests does not appear to have been affected by the substantial decline in spring snowpack observed in the past two decades across the broader Cascade Range, and we did not find any indication of changing relationships between tree growth and either monthly or seasonal winter precipitation since the early 1990s. The exceptional three-year sequence in Crater Lake tree rings between CE 1809 and 1811, which includes the narrowest ring since CE 1540 and anatomical abnormalities produced by cold weather, leads us to conclude that 1809–1810 was the most snowy and severe winter to affect south-central Oregon during the past four and a half centuries.

Don't want grumpy spiders? Keep it cool

![Graphic][1] Life is always transitioning from one state to another. Some state transitions can be physical, such as the small Arctic fox changing its fur from brown to white when a snowy winter approaches, but they can also be behavioural, such as when my fellow humans grumble and complain

The Impact of Winter Meteorological Parameters on Abundance of the Grey Partridge Perdix perdix in the Southern Ural Steppe.

In the winter periods from 1994 to 2017, the grey partridge average abundance in the steppe zone of the southern Urals was significantly negatively correlated with some meteorological parameters (the snow cover height, precipitations, snow density). At the same time, in the subsequent summer period, these winter parameters (including the mean air temperature) had no influence on the bird number. Indeed, the harsh and snowy winters did not affect the grey partridge abundance in the reproductive period. We believe that migrations from the breeding area or nomadic movements of these birds occurred in the most extreme winters.

George Richard (Dick) Potts (1939–2017)

George Richard (Dick) Potts (1939–2017)

Some insect larvae tolerate high temperatures better during winter

Snowy winters seem to be becoming a thing of the past. As rising temperatures take an ever stronger hold, the insulating blankets of snow that kept overwintering populations of bugs and mini-beasts in various states of suspended animation through the long dark months are receding. ‘We were interested in how insects would respond to increased temperatures in the winter’, says Henry Vu from the University of Notre Dame, USA, who was curious to find out how vulnerable exposed insects might respond to relatively sultry winters when their insulating winter blanket dwindles. Specifically, Vu and his colleagues wanted to find out whether high temperatures during thaws could be close to the insects’ lethal temperatures. As many insects pass the winter buried as larvae deep in logs, Vu and PI John Duman decided to test the tolerance of the fire-coloured beetle, Dendroides canadensis, throughout the seasons to find out whether losing their winter muffler is risky.Vu ventured out into local woods to retrieve the beetle larvae from decaying logs throughout the year, even braving the elements during the polar vortex that gripped the US in January 2014: ‘We used a chisel and hammer to peel back the frozen bark of trees and chip away at the decaying wood to find our insects during the winter’, he recalls. Back in the lab, Vu placed the larvae in incubators ranging from 33 to 41°C for up to 2 days to find out how well they survived the high temperatures. In addition, he chilled some of the larvae during each of the seasons, while recording the temperatures at which they died, to find out how their low temperature tolerance varied.Fire-coloured beetles avoid freezing during the colder months by producing antifreeze compounds and Vu and Duman recorded that the insects could survive temperatures as low as −25°C during the winter, although they only survived temperatures that were a few degrees below freezing during spring and summer. However, when Vu recorded the insects’ survival rates at high temperatures, he found they were able to survive temperatures around 40.9°C during the winter but could only cope with temperatures around 36.7°C during the summer. ‘These insects can survive over a 60°C range in the winter while only surviving over approximately a 40°C range in summer’, says Vu. And when he tested the survival of the larvae of two other species – a member of the flat bark beetle family, Cucujus clavipes clavipes (which also produces antifreeze to avoid freezing), and the crane fly, Tipula trivittata (which can survive the freezing of some of their body fluids) – their high temperature resilience also seemed to increase during the winter.‘Logically, we were expecting the insects to survive higher temperatures in the summer because that's when the highest temperatures are’, says Vu. He suspects that the larvae are most at risk from overheating during the spring, when they are becoming less heat tolerant and the logs are warming as the air temperatures rise and there are fewer leaves for shade from the increasing strength of the sun.

The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice (largely externally forced). Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation (dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere), in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model (not model-dependent). Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

Comparing the Performance of Two Road Weather Models in the Netherlands

Abstract High-quality road condition forecasts are a prerequisite for road authorities to ensure wintertime road safety. Harsh winter conditions can cause problems for traffic not only in countries where snowy winters are common but also in regions where the temperature drops below the freezing point occasionally. This study reports on the evaluation of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s (KNMI) new road weather forecasting model by comparing it with the Finnish Meteorological Institute’s (FMI) road weather model, both run for 321 Dutch road weather stations, four times daily (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC) during the test period, 15 January–28 February 2015. Road surface temperature forecasts by both models were evaluated against observations. The KNMI model produced slightly more accurate forecasts than the FMI model. The main reason for the difference is probably due to the optimization of the physical properties of the KNMI model for the Netherlands, whereas the FMI model is designed for quite different Finnish wintertime meteorological conditions. However, in general the road surface temperature forecasts were of quite comparable quality.