Small Outbreaks Research Articles

A Simulation Study of the Use of Vaccination to Control Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Across Australia.

This study examines the potential for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies that incorporate vaccination to manage FMD spread for a range of incursion scenarios across Australia. Stakeholder consultation was used to formulate control strategies and incursion scenarios to ensure relevance to the diverse range of Australian livestock production regions and management systems. The Australian Animal Disease Spread model (AADIS) was used to compare nine control strategies for 13 incursion scenarios, including seven control strategies incorporating vaccination. The control strategies with vaccination differed in terms of their approaches for targeting areas and species. These strategies are compared with two benchmark strategies based on stamping out only. Outbreak size and duration were compared in terms of the total number of infected premises, the duration of the control stage of an FMD outbreak, and the number of vaccinated animals. The three key findings from this analysis are as follows: (1) smaller outbreaks can be effectively managed by stamping out without vaccination, (2) the size and duration of larger outbreaks can be significantly reduced when vaccination is used, and (3) different vaccination strategies produced similar reductions in the size and duration of an outbreak, but the number of animals vaccinated varied. Under current international standards for regaining FMD-free status, vaccinated animals need to be removed from the population at the end of the outbreak to minimize trade impacts. We have shown that selective, targeted vaccination strategies could achieve effective FMD control while significantly reducing the number of animals vaccinated.

COVID-19 Cases from the First Local Outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Variant in China May Present More Serious Clinical Features: A Prospective, Comparative Cohort Study.

ABSTRACTThe SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant has increased sharply in numbers worldwide and is reported to be more contagious than the nonvariant. Little is known regarding the detailed clinical features of B.1.1.7 variant infection. Data on 74 COVID-19 cases from two outbreaks in two districts of Beijing, China were extracted from a cloud database, including 41 cases from Shunyi District (Shunyi B.1.470 group) and 33 from Daxing (Daxing B.1.1.7 group) from December 25, 2020 to January 17, 2021. We conducted a comparison of the clinical characteristics. Seven clinical indicators of the Daxing B.1.1.7 group were significantly higher than those of the Shunyi group, including the proportion with fever over 38°C, the levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), serum amyloid A (SAA), creatine kinase (CK), d-dimer (DD), and CD4+ T lymphocytes (CD4+ T), and the proportion with ground-glass opacity (GGO) in the lung (P values of ≤0.05). After adjusting for age, B.1.1.7 variant infection was a risk factor for elevated CRP (P = 0·045), SAA (P = 0·011), CK (P = 0·034), and CD4+ T (P = 0.029) and for the presence of GGO (P = 0.005). The median threshold cycle (CT) value of reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) tests of the N gene target in the Daxing B.1.1.7 group was significantly lower (P = 0.036) than that in the Shunyi B.1.470 group. Clinical features, including a more serious inflammatory response, pneumonia, and a possibly higher viral load, were detected in the cases infected with B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant may have increased pathogenicity.IMPORTANCE The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, which was first identified in the United Kingdom, has increased sharply in numbers worldwide and was reported to be more contagious than the nonvariant. To our knowledge, no studies investigating the detailed clinical features of COVID-19 cases infected with the B.1.1.7 variant have been published. Local epidemics have rarely occurred in China, but occasionally, a small clustered outbreak triggered by an imported SARS-CoV-2 strain with only one chain of transmission could happen. From late 2020 to early 2021, two clustered COVID-19 outbreaks occurred in Beijing, one of which was caused by the B.1.1.7 variant. The COVID-19 patients from the two outbreaks received similar clinical tests, diagnoses, and treatments. We found that the B.1.1.7 variant infection could lead to a more serious inflammatory response, acute response process, more severe pneumonia, and probably higher viral loads. This therefore implies that the B.1.1.7 variant may have increased pathogenicity.

Immunity and Viral Infections: Modulating Antiviral Response via CRISPR-Cas Systems.

Viral infections cause a variety of acute and chronic human diseases, sometimes resulting in small local outbreaks, or in some cases spreading across the globe and leading to global pandemics. Understanding and exploiting virus–host interactions is instrumental for identifying host factors involved in viral replication, developing effective antiviral agents, and mitigating the severity of virus-borne infectious diseases. The diversity of CRISPR systems and CRISPR-based tools enables the specific modulation of innate immune responses and has contributed impressively to the fields of virology and immunology in a very short time. In this review, we describe the most recent advances in the use of CRISPR systems for basic and translational studies of virus–host interactions.

Estimation of Transmission of COVID-19 in Simulated Nursing Homes With Frequent Testing and Immunity-Based Staffing

Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have been disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Strategies are urgently needed to reduce transmission in these high-risk populations. To evaluate COVID-19 transmission in nursing homes associated with contact-targeted interventions and testing. This decision analytical modeling study developed an agent-based susceptible-exposed-infectious (asymptomatic/symptomatic)-recovered model between July and September 2020 to examine SARS-CoV-2 transmission in nursing homes. Residents and staff of a simulated nursing home with 100 residents and 100 staff split among 3 shifts were modeled individually; residents were split into 2 cohorts based on COVID-19 diagnosis. Data were analyzed from September to October 2020. In the resident cohorting intervention, residents who had recovered from COVID-19 were moved back from the COVID-19 (ie, infected with SARS-CoV-2) cohort to the non-COVID-19 (ie, susceptible and uninfected with SARS-CoV-2) cohort. In the immunity-based staffing intervention, staff who had recovered from COVID-19 were assumed to have protective immunity and were assigned to work in the non-COVID-19 cohort, while susceptible staff worked in the COVID-19 cohort and were assumed to have high levels of protection from personal protective equipment. These interventions aimed to reduce the fraction of people's contacts that were presumed susceptible (and therefore potentially infected) and replaced them with recovered (immune) contacts. A secondary aim of was to evaluate cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections associated with 2 types of screening tests (ie, rapid antigen testing and polymerase chain reaction [PCR] testing) conducted with varying frequency. Estimated cumulative incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection after 3 months. Among the simulated cohort of 100 residents and 100 staff members, frequency and type of testing were associated with smaller outbreaks than the cohorting and staffing interventions. The testing strategy associated with the greatest estimated reduction in infections was daily antigen testing, which reduced the mean cumulative incidence proportion by 49% in absence of contact-targeted interventions. Under all screening testing strategies, the resident cohorting intervention and the immunity-based staffing intervention were associated with reducing the final estimated size of the outbreak among residents, with the immunity-based staffing intervention reducing it more (eg, by 19% in the absence of testing) than the resident cohorting intervention (eg, by 8% in the absence of testing). The estimated reduction in transmission associated with these interventions among staff varied by testing strategy and community prevalence. These findings suggest that increasing the frequency of screening testing of all residents and staff, or even staff alone, in nursing homes may reduce outbreaks in this high-risk setting. Immunity-based staffing may further reduce spread at little or no additional cost and becomes particularly important when daily testing is not feasible.

Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I - An emerging cause of human cryptosporidiosis in Sweden.

Most cases of cryptosporidiosis in humans are caused by Cryptosporidium parvum or Cryptosporidium hominis. However, more uncommon species are increasingly being recognised to cause infection in humans. Here we report that Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I, which has various rodents as its natural host, is the third most common source of human cryptosporidiosis in Sweden. We also describe the first small outbreak of cryptosporidiosis caused by Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I and report the first case of zoonotic transmission of Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I from a red squirrel to a human. Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I was identified in 20 human cases, including 16 sporadic cases, three outbreak-related cases, and one zoonotic case, as well as in two squirrel samples. Gp60 subtyping which was successful for 19 human cases and two squirrel samples showed that all samples harboured the same subtype, XIVaA20G2T1. The work presented here suggests that red squirrel is a natural host of Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I and that infection with Cryptosporidium chipmunk genotype I is an emerging cause of domestic cryptosporidiosis in Sweden and a potential source of outbreaks.

Transition from growth to decay of an epidemic due to lockdown

We study the transition of an epidemic from growth phase to decay of the active infections in a population when lockdown health measures are introduced to reduce the probability of disease transmission. Although in the case of uniform lockdown, a simple compartmental model would indicate instantaneous transition to decay of the epidemic, this is not the case when partially isolated active clusters remain with the potential to create a series of small outbreaks. We model this using the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm based on a connected set of stochastic susceptible-infected-removed/recovered networks representing the locked-down majority population (in which the reproduction number is less than 1) weakly coupled to a large set of small clusters in which the infection may propagate. We find that the presence of such active clusters can lead to slower than expected decay of the epidemic and significantly delayed onset of the decay phase. We study the relative contributions of these changes, caused by the active clusters within the population, to the additional total infected population. We also demonstrate that limiting the size of the inevitable active clusters can be efficient in reducing their impact on the overall size of the epidemic outbreak. The deceleration of the decay phase becomes apparent when the active clusters form at least 5% of the population.

The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation

SummaryBackgroundIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK first adopted physical distancing measures in March, 2020. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 became available in December, 2020. We explored the health and economic value of introducing SARS-CoV-2 immunisation alongside physical distancing in the UK to gain insights about possible future scenarios in a post-vaccination era.MethodsWe used an age-structured dynamic transmission and economic model to explore different scenarios of UK mass immunisation programmes over 10 years. We compared vaccinating 75% of individuals aged 15 years or older (and annually revaccinating 50% of individuals aged 15–64 years and 75% of individuals aged 65 years or older) to no vaccination. We assumed either 50% vaccine efficacy against disease and 45-week protection (worst-case scenario) or 95% vaccine efficacy against infection and 3-year protection (best-case scenario). Natural immunity was assumed to wane within 45 weeks. We also explored the additional impact of physical distancing on vaccination by assuming either an initial lockdown followed by voluntary physical distancing, or an initial lockdown followed by increased physical distancing mandated above a certain threshold of incident daily infections. We considered benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs, both to the health-care payer and the national economy. We discounted future costs and QALYs at 3·5% annually and assumed a monetary value per QALY of £20 000 and a conservative long-run cost per vaccine dose of £15. We explored and varied these parameters in sensitivity analyses. We expressed the health and economic benefits of each scenario with the net monetary value: QALYs × (monetary value per QALY) – costs.FindingsWithout the initial lockdown, vaccination, and increased physical distancing, we estimated 148·0 million (95% uncertainty interval 48·5–198·8) COVID-19 cases and 3·1 million (0·84–4·5) deaths would occur in the UK over 10 years. In the best-case scenario, vaccination minimises community transmission without future periods of increased physical distancing, whereas SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic with biannual epidemics in the worst-case scenario. Ongoing transmission is also expected in intermediate scenarios with vaccine efficacy similar to published clinical trial data. From a health-care perspective, introducing vaccination leads to incremental net monetary values ranging from £12·0 billion to £334·7 billion in the best-case scenario and from –£1·1 billion to £56·9 billion in the worst-case scenario. Incremental net monetary values of increased physical distancing might be negative from a societal perspective if national economy losses are persistent and large.InterpretationOur model findings highlight the substantial health and economic value of introducing SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Smaller outbreaks could continue even with vaccines, but population-wide implementation of increased physical distancing might no longer be justifiable. Our study provides early insights about possible future post-vaccination scenarios from an economic and epidemiological perspective.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, European Commission, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Suppressing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic using controlled testing and isolation

The Corona virus disease has significantly affected lives of people around the world. Existing quarantine policies led to large-scale lock-downs because of the slow tracking of the infection paths, and indeed we see new waves of the disease. This can be solved by contact tracing combined with efficient testing policies. Since the number of daily tests is limited, it is crucial to exploit them efficiently to improve the outcome of contact tracing (technological or human-based epidemiological investigations). We develop a controlled testing framework to achieve this goal. The key is to test individuals with high probability of being infected to identify them before symptoms appear. These probabilities are updated based on contact tracing and test results. We demonstrate that the proposed method could reduce the quarantine and morbidity rates compared to existing methods by up to a 50%. The results clearly demonstrate the necessity of accelerating the epidemiological investigations by using technological contact tracing. Furthermore, proper use of the testing capacity using the proposed controlled testing methodology leads to significantly improved results under both small and large testing capacities. We also show that for small new outbreaks controlled testing can prevent the large spread of new waves. Author contributions statement: The authors contributed equally to this work, including conceptualization, analysis, methodology, software, and drafting the work.

Analysis of a small outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 using long-read sequencing.

Compared to short-read sequencing data, long-read sequencing facilitates single contiguous de novo assemblies and characterization of the prophage region of the genome. Here, we describe our methodological approach to using Oxford Nanopore Technology (ONT) sequencing data to quantify genetic relatedness and to look for microevolutionary events in the core and accessory genomes to assess the within-outbreak variation of four genetically and epidemiologically linked isolates. Analysis of both Illumina and ONT sequencing data detected one SNP between the four sequences of the outbreak isolates. The variant calling procedure highlighted the importance of masking homologous sequences in the reference genome regardless of the sequencing technology used. Variant calling also highlighted the systemic errors in ONT base-calling and ambiguous mapping of Illumina reads that results in variations in the genetic distance when comparing one technology to the other. The prophage component of the outbreak strain was analysed, and nine of the 16 prophages showed some similarity to the prophage in the Sakai reference genome, including the stx2a-encoding phage. Prophage comparison between the outbreak isolates identified minor genome rearrangements in one of the isolates, including an inversion and a deletion event. The ability to characterize the accessory genome in this way is the first step to understanding the significance of these microevolutionary events and their impact on the evolutionary history, virulence and potentially the likely source and transmission of this zoonotic, foodborne pathogen.

Effect of Zataria multiflora Boiss. essential oil, NaCl, acid, time, and temperature on the growth of Listeria monocytogenes strains in broth and minced rainbow trout.

The small outbreaks of listeriosis as one of the leading causes of food poisoning‐associated deaths occur more than previously reported. In current study, the growth ability of Listeria monocytogenes strains isolated from different sources of food and human origin was measured under salt stress (0.5%, 2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, and 10%) and acid environments (pH = 6.64 and 5.77) for 96 hr by using a Bioscreen C microbiology reader at 37°C. In further steps of this study, after analysis of constituents of Zataria multiflora Boiss. essential oil (ZMEO), the sensory evaluation of the treated fish meat with ZMEO was performed. Then, the fish isolate of L. monocytogenes was exposed to sensory acceptable and subminimum inhibitory concentrations (subMICs) of ZMEO in fish broth and minced fish meat during incubation at abuse (12°C), room (22°C), and optimum (37°C) temperatures for 48 hr. The MIC of NaCl against four strains of L. monocytogenes was 10% at 37°C. The maximum optical densities (ODs) and under curve areas (AUC) of growth patterns in higher pH value and lower contents of NaCl followed the order of 21C > 6F > 66C > 22C of L. monocytogenes strains, while the lag time was prolonged in the reverse order. The maximum OD, growth, and lag times of samples treated with higher contents of NaCl and lower pH value were affected in a different order. The organoleptic evaluation showed that the fish meat treated with less than 0.5% of ZMEO was sensory acceptable. The population of L. monocytogenes remained relatively constant at the inoculation level of 107 cfu/ml (or g) at 12°C in broth and minced fish mediums. The inhibitory antilisterial activity of essential oil as an extensive‐used plant for food and pharmacological applications is negligible due to possible adverse sensory and toxic effects at relevant high doses.

SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity in Venezuela: Predominance of D614G variants and analysis of one outbreak.

SARS-CoV-2 is the new coronavirus responsible for COVID-19 disease. The first two cases of COVID-19 were detected in Venezuela on March 13, 2020. The aim of this study was the genetic characterization of Venezuelan SARS-CoV-2 isolates. A total of 7 full SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing, from patients of different regions of Venezuela, mainly from the beginning of the epidemic. Ten out of 11 isolates (6 complete genomes and 4 partial spike genomic regions) belonged to lineage B, bearing the D614G mutation in the Spike protein. Isolates from the first outbreak that occurred in the Margarita Island harbored an in-frame deletion in its sequence, without amino acids 83-85 of the NSP1 of the ORF1. The search for deletions in 48,635 sequences showed that the NSP1 gene exhibit the highest frequency of deletions along the whole genome. Structural analysis suggests a change in the N-terminal domain with the presence of this deletion. In contrast, isolates circulating later in this island lacked the deletion, suggesting new introductions to the island after this first outbreak. In conclusion, a high diversity of SARS-CoV-2 isolates were found circulating in Venezuela, with predominance of the D614G mutation. The first small outbreak in Margarita Island seemed to be associated with a strain carrying a small deletion in the NSP1 protein, but these isolates do not seem to be responsible for the larger outbreak which started in July.

Novel Dermatitis and Relative Viral Nucleic Acid Tissue Loads in a Fin Whale (Balaenoptera physalus) with Systemic Cetacean Morbillivirus Infection

Cetacean morbilliviruses (CeMVs) are significant causes of mortality in many cetacean species in epizootics and smaller outbreaks. Despite the prominence of skin lesions in seals and terrestrial animals, including humans, affected by other morbilliviruses, they have not been reported in CeMV-infected cetaceans. Here we report CeMV-associated skin lesions in a fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) with subacute, systemic CeMV infection that live-stranded in Scotland, UK. Grossly, the skin was sloughing in large sheets, presumed due to autolysis, but histological examination showed syncytia, below the dermoepidermal junction, that were strongly immunopositive for morbillivirus antigen, as were syncytia in other organs. By polymerase chain reaction (PCR), the relative load of CeMV-specific RNA was largest in the liver and urinary bladder, even in formalin-fixed, paraffin-wax embedded samples. Levels were low in skin and only detectable in frozen samples. Genetic comparison of the CeMV revealed close alignment with isolates from fin whales from the North Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, but that it was distinct from the porpoise CeMV clade. These findings show skin samples can be used to diagnose CeMV infection in cetaceans, highlighting the potential of ante-mortem sampling for monitoring disease in current populations and assessment of changes in host and pathogen genetics.

Subcritical Transmission in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in Korea.

While the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has been ongoing in Korea since January 2020, there were limited transmissions during the early stages of the outbreak. In the present study, we aimed to provide a statistical characterization of COVID-19 transmissions that led to this small outbreak. We collated the individual data of the first 28 confirmed cases reported from 20 January to 10 February 2020. We estimated key epidemiological parameters such as reporting delay (i.e., time from symptom onset to confirmation), incubation period, and serial interval by fitting probability distributions to the data based on the maximum likelihood estimation. We also estimated the basic reproduction number ( using the renewal equation, which allows for the transmissibility to differ between imported and locally transmitted cases. There were 16 imported and 12 locally transmitted cases, and secondary transmissions per case were higher for the imported cases than the locally transmitted cases (nine vs. three cases). The mean reporting delays were estimated to be 6.76 days (95% CI: 4.53, 9.28) and 2.57 days (95% CI: 1.57, 4.23) for imported and locally transmitted cases, respectively. The mean incubation period was estimated to be 5.53 days (95% CI: 3.98, 8.09) and was shorter than the mean serial interval of 6.45 days (95% CI: 4.32, 9.65). The was estimated to be 0.40 (95% CI: 0.16, 0.99), accounting for the local and imported cases. The fewer secondary cases and shorter reporting delays for the locally transmitted cases suggest that contact tracing of imported cases was effective at reducing further transmissions, which helped to keep below one and the overall transmissions small.

Sequencing the pandemic: rapid and high-throughput processing and analysis of COVID-19 clinical samples for 21st century public health

Genomic epidemiology has proven successful for real-time and retrospective monitoring of small and large-scale outbreaks. Here, we report two genomic sequencing and analysis strategies for rapid-turnaround or high-throughput processing of metagenomic samples. The rapid-turnaround method was designed to provide a quick phylogenetic snapshot of samples at the heart of active outbreaks, and has a total turnaround time of <48 hours from raw sample to analyzed data. The high-throughput method was designed for semi-retrospective data analysis, and is both cost effective and highly scalable. Though these methods were developed and utilized for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic response in Arizona, U.S, and we envision their use for infectious disease epidemiology in the 21st Century.

The history of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype C: the first known extinct serotype?

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious animal disease caused by an RNA virus subdivided into seven serotypes that are unevenly distributed in Asia, Africa, and South America. Despite the challenges of controlling FMD, since 1996 there have been only two outbreaks attributed to serotype C, in Brazil and in Kenya, in 2004. This article describes the historical distribution and origins of serotype C and its disappearance. The serotype was first described in Europe in the 1920s, where it mainly affected pigs and cattle but as a less common cause of outbreaks than serotypes O and A. No serotype C outbreaks have been reported in Europe since vaccination stopped in 1990. FMD virus is presumed to have been introduced into South America from Europe in the nineteenth century, although whether serotype C evolved there or in Europe is not known. As in Europe, this serotype was less widely distributed and caused fewer outbreaks than serotypes O and A. Since 1994, serotype C had not been reported from South America until four small outbreaks were detected in the Amazon region in 2004. Elsewhere, serotype C was introduced to Asia, in the 1950s to the 1970s, persisting and evolving for several decades in the Indian subcontinent and for eighteen years in the Philippines. Serotype C virus also circulated in East Africa between 1957 and 2004. Many serotype C viruses from European and Kenyan outbreaks were closely related to vaccine strains, including the most recently recovered Kenyan isolate from 2004. International surveillance has not confirmed any serotype C cases, worldwide, for over 15 years, despite more than 2,000 clinical submissions per year to reference laboratories. Serology provides limited evidence for absence of this serotype, as unequivocal interpretation is hampered by incomplete intra-serotype specificity of immunoassays and the continued use of this serotype in vaccines. It is recommended to continue strengthening surveillance in regions of FMD endemicity, to stop vaccination against serotype C and to reduce working with the virus in laboratories, since inadvertent escape of virus during such activities is now the biggest risk for its reappearance in the field.

Probabilistic transmission models incorporating sequencing data for healthcare-associated Clostridioides difficile outperform heuristic rules and identify strain-specific differences in transmission.

Fitting stochastic transmission models to electronic patient data can offer detailed insights into the transmission of healthcare-associated infections and improve infection control. Pathogen whole-genome sequencing may improve the precision of model inferences, but computational constraints have limited modelling applications predominantly to small datasets and specific outbreaks, whereas large-scale sequencing studies have mostly relied on simple rules for identifying/excluding plausible transmission. We present a novel approach for integrating detailed epidemiological data on patient contact networks in hospitals with large-scale pathogen sequencing data. We apply our approach to study Clostridioides difficile transmission using a dataset of 1223 infections in Oxfordshire, UK, 2007–2011. 262 (21% [95% credibility interval 20–22%]) infections were estimated to have been acquired from another known case. There was heterogeneity by sequence type (ST) in the proportion of cases acquired from another case with the highest rates in ST1 (ribotype-027), ST42 (ribotype-106) and ST3 (ribotype-001). These same STs also had higher rates of transmission mediated via environmental contamination/spores persisting after patient discharge/recovery; for ST1 these persisted longer than for most other STs except ST3 and ST42. We also identified variation in transmission between hospitals, medical specialties and over time; by 2011 nearly all transmission from known cases had ceased in our hospitals. Our findings support previous work suggesting only a minority of C. difficile infections are acquired from known cases but highlight a greater role for environmental contamination than previously thought. Our approach is applicable to other healthcare-associated infections. Our findings have important implications for effective control of C. difficile.

Rate of exposure to Mayaro virus (MAYV) in Brazil between 1955 and 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Mayaro fever is an infection caused by Mayaro virus (MAYV) that stands out among the neglected diseases transmitted by arthropods. Brazil is the country with the highest number of confirmed cases of MAYV infection. However, epidemiological surveillance studies conducted in Brazil are decentralized and focus on small outbreaks and unconfirmed cases. Thus, the aim of this review was to determine the general epidemiological profile of MAYV infections in Brazil. Several medical databases (i.e., PUBMED/MEDLINE, Scopus, Cochrane Library, LILACS, SciELO, and Biblioteca Virtual em Saúde) were searched for studies reporting cases of MAYV infections in Brazilian patients. Then, the rate of exposure to MAYV in Brazil was analyzed using RStudio® Software. We identified 37 studies published from 1957 to 2019, containing data of 12,374 patients from 1955 to 2018. The general rate of exposure to MAYV in Brazil was 10% (95% CI; 0.04-0.22), with 1,304 reported cases. The highest incidence of MAYV infection was found in the northern region (13%; 95% CI; 0.05-0.29), with 1,142 cases (88% of all cases). Furthermore, autochthonous MAYV cases have also been reported in the Central West (8%; 95% CI; 0.03-0.18) and Southeast (0.4%; 95% CI; 0.00-0.28). The states with the highest number of cases are Amazonas (490 cases), Pará (276 cases), and Goiás (87 cases). In conclusion, the general rate of exposure to MAYV in Brazil between 1955 and 2018 was considerable, especially in the Legal Amazon, in which 93% of cases were reported.

Early warning of infectious disease outbreaks on cattle-transport networks.

Surveillance of infectious diseases in livestock is traditionally carried out at the farms, which are the typical units of epidemiological investigations and interventions. In Central and Western Europe, high-quality, long-term time series of animal transports have become available and this opens the possibility to new approaches like sentinel surveillance. By comparing a sentinel surveillance scheme based on markets to one based on farms, the primary aim of this paper is to identify the smallest set of sentinel holdings that would reliably and timely detect emergent disease outbreaks in Swiss cattle. Using a data-driven approach, we simulate the spread of infectious diseases according to the reported or available daily cattle transport data in Switzerland over a four year period. Investigating the efficiency of surveillance at either market or farm level, we find that the most efficient early warning surveillance system [the smallest set of sentinels that timely and reliably detect outbreaks (small outbreaks at detection, short detection delays)] would be based on the former, rather than the latter. We show that a detection probability of 86% can be achieved by monitoring all 137 markets in the network. Additional 250 farm sentinels—selected according to their risk—need to be placed under surveillance so that the probability of first hitting one of these farm sentinels is at least as high as the probability of first hitting a market. Combining all markets and 1000 farms with highest risk of infection, these two levels together will lead to a detection probability of 99%. We conclude that the design of animal surveillance systems greatly benefits from the use of the existing abundant and detailed animal transport data especially in the case of highly dynamic cattle transport networks. Sentinel surveillance approaches can be tailored to complement existing farm risk-based and syndromic surveillance approaches.

Prevalence of COVID-19 and the Continued Citizen-Based Control in Japan.

Since an outbreak of COVID-19 was detected among the crew and passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship in early 2020, the total number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 has surpassed 440,000 in Japan. However, that number remains small compared with other countries, such as the United States, a few European countries, and China. Despite the Japanese government not imposing a lockdown or implementing large-scale testing at the municipal level, the country has managed to contain the smaller outbreaks. To avoid infection, it is important to wear a face mask, wash one's hands, and observe social distancing. In addition, we focus on the clinical laboratory testing performed using the latest technology to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in a hospital in Yokohama, Japan. Large-scale testing of viral RNA would be useful for detecting asymptomatic virus carriers as is done in other countries, and could be carried out as a future measure for controlling COVID-19.

A Mathematical Modeling Study: Assessing Impact of Mismatch Between Influenza Vaccine Strains and Circulating Strains in Hajj.

The influenza virus causes severe respiratory illnesses and deaths worldwide every year. It spreads quickly in an overcrowded area like the annual Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. Vaccination is the primary strategy for protection against influenza. Due to the occurrence of antigenic shift and drift of the influenza virus, a mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains of influenza may occur. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating strains during Hajj, which brings together individuals from all over the globe. To this end, we develop deterministic mathematical models of influenza with different populations and strains from the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results show that the existence and duration of an influenza outbreak during Hajj depend on vaccine efficacy. In this concern, we discuss four scenarios: vaccine strains for both groups match/mismatch circulating strains, and vaccine strains match their target strains and mismatch the other strains. Further, there is a scenario where a novel pandemic strain arises. Our results show that as long as the influenza vaccines match their target strains, there will be no outbreak of strain H1N1 and only a small outbreak of strain H3N2. Mismatching for non-target strains causes about 10,000 new H3N2 cases, and mismatching for both strains causes about 2,000 more new H1N1 cases and 6,000 additional H3N2 cases during Hajj. Complete mismatch in a pandemic scenario may infect over 342,000 additional pilgrims (13.75%) and cause more cases in their home countries.