Simple Overlapping Generations Model Research Articles

A Theory of Moral Persistence: Crypto-Morality and Political Legitimacy

Why, how, and under what conditions do moral beliefs persist despite institutional pressure for change? Why do the powerful often fail to promote the morality of their authority? This paper addresses these questions by presenting the role of crypto-morality in moral persistence. Crypto-morality is the secret adherence to one morality while practicing another in public. A simple overlapping generations model is developed to examine the conditions under which crypto-morality is practiced, decays and influences the direction of moral change. We demonstrate the empirical relevance of crypto-morality by discussing the moral foundations of political legitimacy in various historical episodes.

Was Malthus right? The relationship between population and real wages in Italian history, 1320 to 1870

In this article we investigate the relation between population and real wages in the Italian economy during the period 1320–1870. The main result is that the positive check is strong and statistically significant but the other equilibrating mechanism in the Malthusian model – the preventive check – based on the positive relationship between fertility and real wages does not operate in pre-industrial Italy. In contrast to the Malthusian hypothesis, we find a negative feedback from wage to population. The empirical result is clearly consistent with the theoretical framework of the “old age security motive”. We show, with a simple overlapping-generation model, that by allowing for substitution in a pre-industrial economy between child quantity and other assets (such as new seeds, better soybean quality, and new cultivation and irrigation methods) fertility may be negatively affected whenever income rises.

FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE IMPERFECT LABOR MARKET

Using a simple overlapping generations model with the growth engine of public capital by incorporating the union wage setting, we examine the effects of fiscal policies on unemployment, economic growth and welfare in the imperfect labor market. We demonstrate that the growth-maximizing tax in the imperfect labor market is larger than that of the perfect labor market. However, as the allocation ratio of public capital increases, the growth-maximizing tax in the imperfect labor market approaches that of the perfect labor market, thus reducing the unemployment rate. The policy implications of the intergenerational welfare aspects are also mentioned.

STOCK PRICE VOLATILITY, NEGATIVE AUTOCORRELATION AND THE CONSUMPTION-WEALTH RATIO: THE CASE OF CONSTANT FUNDAMENTALS

Based on infinite horizon models, previous theoretical works show that the empirical stock price movement is not justified by the changes in dividends. The present paper provides a simple overlapping generations model with constant fundamentals in which the stock price displays volatility and negative autocorrelation even without changes in dividend. The horizon of the agents matters. In addition, as in recent empirical works, the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio ‘predicts’ the asset return. Thus, this framework may be useful in understanding different stylized facts in asset pricing. Directions for future research are also discussed.

PUBLIC EDUCATION, FERTILITY INCENTIVES, NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFARE

Using a simple overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth, we analyse the effects of both child allowances and the system of public education on the rate of fertility, the per capita income and the individual lifetime welfare. The essential message of the present paper is that developed countries plagued by below-replacement fertility and income stagnation may raise per capita income and the rate of fertility at the same time by increasing the public education expenditure rather than by resorting to child allowances. The latter, in fact, are found to be harmful for long-run neoclassical economic growth and, in contrast with the common belief, for the rate of population growth as well. Moreover, welfare analysis has shown the existence of a Pareto-efficient welfare-maximizing educational contribution rate.

On rational exuberance

In his seminal contribution, Tirole (1985) shows that an overlapping generations economy may monotonically converge to a steady state with a positive rational bubble, characterized by the dynamically efficient golden rule. The issue we address is whether this monotonic convergence to an efficient long run equilibrium may fail, while the economy experiences persistent endogenous fluctuations around the golden rule. Our explanation leads on the features of the credit market. We consider a simple overlapping generations model with three assets: money, capital and an asset paper, which behaves as a bubble. Collaterals matter because increasing the amount of capital and asset paper in the portfolio, the household reduces the share of consumption paid in cash. From a positive point of view, we show that the bubbly steady state can be locally indeterminate under arbitrarily small credit market imperfections and, thereby, persistent expectation-driven fluctuations of equilibria with (rational) bubbles can arise. From a normative point of view, monetary policies that are not too expansive are recommended in order to rule out the occurrence of sunspot fluctuations and enhance the welfare evaluated at the steady state.

Mortality, Fertility, Education and Capital Accumulation in a Simple OLG Economy

We develop a simple overlapping generations model to analytically show that population aging leads to increased educational efforts through a general equilibrium effect. The key mechanism at work in the model is that scarcity of raw labor increases the rate of return to human capital relative to physical capital. While a reduction in the birth rate is shown to unambiguously increase educational efforts, increases in the survival rate have ambiguous effects. Falling birth rates unambiguously increase capital per worker while the effects of rising survival rates are ambiguous. When evaluating our model using a calibrated version we and that education always increases if life expectancy rises but the effect on the capital stock is still ambiguous and depends on the parameters of the model. We conclude that our model is a useful laboratory to highlight the various potentially offsetting effects at work in models with endogenous education and overlapping generations which is key for understanding the magnitudes of results of applied quantitative general equilibrium analyses employing such a framework.

On linking microsimulation and computable general equilibrium models using exact aggregation of heterogeneous discrete-choice making agents

Our paper contributes by bridging the gap between the (partial equilibrium) microsimulation and the computable general equilibrium (CGE) approaches, by making use of exact aggregation results from the discrete choice literature: heterogeneous individuals choosing within a set of discrete alternatives may be aggregated into a representative agent with (possibly multiple-level) constant elasticity-of-substitution/transformation preferences/technologies. These results therefore provide a natural link between the two policy evaluation approaches. We illustrate the usefulness of these results by evaluating potential effects of population ageing on the dynamics of income distribution and inequalities, using a simple overlapping generations model where individuals make leisure/work decisions, and choose a profession among a discrete set of alternatives.

Aging, fertility, social security and political equilibrium

We analyze the effect of population aging on the political choice of the size of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system, incorporating the heterogeneity of individuals in their preference for having children, and hence the endogenous fertility choices of individuals, into a simple overlapping generations model. We show that population aging may result in an increase in the contribution rate, increasing the share of the retired population who prefer a higher contribution rate; and that, if the system involves redistribution between retirees with different contributions, the increased contribution rate raises the number of individuals who have children, i.e., future contributors.

PRIVATE AND PUBLIC EDUCATION: HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION UNDER PARENTAL TEACHING*

This paper examines a simple overlapping generations model of human capital accumulation under both the public and private education regimes. Both young individuals and their parents allocate time to human capital accumulation. Under the public education regime, the government collects tax to finance expenditure for education resources. We show that there exists a level of tax which maximizes the speed of human capital accumulation because of parental teaching; and, if the government chooses tax rates adequately, human capital grows faster and welfare levels become higher under the public education regime than under the private.

The Influence of the Stock Market on Economic Dynamics in the Overlapping Generations Model

The article considers a simple overlapping generations model. The authors show that the existence of the stock market (which at the first stage of its evolution may be modeled as an increase in the number of firms in the economy) contributes to the reduction of volatility of economic growth.

Is higher confidence of fiat money necessarily desirable?

We investigate whether higher confidence of fiat money is desirable from the viewpoint of dynamic resource allocation. Using a simple overlapping generations model, we demonstrate that higher confidence of fiat money depresses economic growth and harms the welfare of future generations born sufficiently later.

EXPLAINING THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM*

We develop a simple overlapping generations model in which the young have a choice in investing in equities or index‐linked bonds. Projections of share price uncertainty over a 30‐year period show that the risk associated with such long‐term investments predicts an equity premium that matches historical values. Moreover, we calibrate the model and show that it can predict up to the fourth moment of both the observed risk premium and the real rate of interest.

The role of money in two alternative models: When is the Friedman rule optimal, and why?

In models of money with an infinitely lived representative agent (ILRA models), the optimal monetary policy is almost always the Friedman rule. In overlapping generations (OG) models, by contrast, the Friedman rule may not be optimal. In this paper, we use this difference in monetary policy prescriptions to help us identify and study the key difference between these two models as models of money. We study the welfare properties of monetary policy in a simple OG model under two very different money demand specifications and two alternative assumptions about the generational timing of taxes for money retirement. We conclude that the key difference between ILRA and OG monetary models is that in the latter, the standard method for constructing a monetary regime causes transactions involving money to become intergenerational transfers. Under alternative government fiscal/monetary regimes that offset these intergenerational transfers, the Friedman rule is always optimal.

Endogenous growth cycles in an overlapping generations model with investment gestation lags

A simple overlapping generations model with investment gestation lags is constructed. The model shows that, if the technology is of the AK type with capital-deepening externalities, the existence of investment gestation lags always generates permanent cyclical fluctuations in the economic growth rate. The mean growth rate is shown to be positive if the external effect is strong. The model also shows that, if the production technology takes the Cobb-Douglas form, there exists a unique steady state in which the economy exhibits neither cyclical fluctuations nor long-run growth.

Social security and trust fund management

In this paper we investigate why and to what extent the government should have a social security trust fund, and how it should manage the fund in the face of demographic shocks, based on a simple overlapping-generations model. We show that, given an aging population, a trust fund in some form could achieve the (modified) golden rule or to offset the negative income effect of a PAYGO system. Besides, in a closed economy where factor-prices effects dominate, using the trust fund as a buffer for demographic shocks could lead to a widening of intergenerational inequality. We also the discuss policy implications of our analysis on the social security reform debate in Japan, including the fixed tax method and the use of the trust fund in the face of a rapidly aging population. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 528–550.

Does the Tax System Encourage Too Much Education?

The Nordic countries have dual income taxation, with a proportional tax on capital income and a progressive tax on labour income. Nielsen and Sorensen (1997) argue that this asym- metric treatment of the two types of income can be defended on pure e¢ciency grounds. The progressivity of the labour income tax serves to reduce the private return to human capital investment, thereby osetting the tendency of a proportional comprehensive income tax to discriminate in favour of such investments. They use a simple overlapping generations model in a small open economy. The consumer faces a trade-obetween investments in …nancial and human capital, and education serves only as a means to shift consumption between periods. The present paper expands this model by including the intrinsic value of education as a mo- tivation behind getting education. I …nd that the argument in favour of dual income taxation is strengthened. A comprehensive proportional income tax works as a tax subsidy on human capital investments, and it reduces the price of education as a consumption good. This may explain the puzzle why so many choose to get higher education in the Nordic countries, where the wage return to education is modest. By introducing a progressive labour income tax, the total return to education is reduced. Hence the e¢ciency distortion in the capital market may be partly neutralised.

An Anti-folk Theorem in Overlapping Generations Games with Limited Observability

We study the effect of limited observability on the possibility of cooperation in a simple overlapping generations model. If new entrants can observe only the recent history of the game, then cooperation cannot be sustained for certain classes of games. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D82.

Long gestation in an overlapping generations economy: endogenous cycles and indeterminacy of equilibria

This paper presents a simple overlapping generations model of endogenous business cycles, in which cycles emerge as a result of long gestation of investment. The key mechanism to generate cycles in this model can be regarded as a “linearity”, rather than non-linearities resulting from non-convexities in technology or preference, asymmetric information in financial markets, multi-sectors of production, or the existence of paper assets, which have played a crucial role in the previous literature. Moreover, if the return on investment technology is sufficiently low, the economy has indeterminate equilibria, each of which converges to a distinct n-period cycle.

Credit Union Governance and Survival of the Cooperative Form

Credit unions are cooperative financial institutions that typically operate on a one-member/one-vote governance rule. This paper demonstrates that such a governance rule may enhance the survival of such organizational forms in the face of adverse incentives created by accumulated financial surpluses and identifies factors that may prompt conversion to a joint-stock form. The analysis is based on noting that current members collectively have “inherited” accumulated surpluses of the cooperative from past members. Older members have an incentive to extract maximum personal private benefit from that inheritance by voting to convert from a cooperative to a joint stock company, even though such an outcome may be socially suboptimal. A simple overlapping generations model is used to develop a “sustainability constraint,” which must be met if conversion is not to occur and examine how a one-member/one-vote governance rule contributes to the survival of the institution in a cooperative form.