Long gestation in an overlapping generations economy: endogenous cycles and indeterminacy of equilibria

Abstract

This paper presents a simple overlapping generations model of endogenous business cycles, in which cycles emerge as a result of long gestation of investment. The key mechanism to generate cycles in this model can be regarded as a “linearity”, rather than non-linearities resulting from non-convexities in technology or preference, asymmetric information in financial markets, multi-sectors of production, or the existence of paper assets, which have played a crucial role in the previous literature. Moreover, if the return on investment technology is sufficiently low, the economy has indeterminate equilibria, each of which converges to a distinct n-period cycle.