Simple Behavioral Model Research Articles

Economists behaving badly: publications in predatory journals

The extent of publishing in predatory journals in economics is examined. A simple model of researcher behavior is presented to explore those factors motivating an academic to publish in predatory journals as defined by Beall (Criteria for determining predatory open access publishers, Unpublished document, 3rd edn, 2015. https://scholarlyoa.com/publishers/ ). Beall’s lists are used to identify predatory journals included in the Research Papers in Economics archives. The affiliations of authors publishing in these outlets indicate that the geographic dispersion of authorship is widespread. A very small subset of authors is registered on RePEc. A surprising number of authors who are in the RePEc top 5% also published in predatory journals in 2015.

Nonlinear Jitter of a Clock Path Due to Electromagnetic Interference on the Supply

The paper presents a simple time-domain model for the nonlinear behavior of the jitter of a clock path due to electromagnetic interference on the power supply. A programming algorithm based on the model is developed to calculate the numerical value of the jitter. Transistor-level simulations and test-board measurements are performed on clock paths of various lengths to verify the jitter model. Good agreement between the experiments and MATLAB calculations are observed over wide ranges of interference frequencies and amplitudes. Interesting phenomena, such as the jitter-minimum shift and jitter inflection, can be explained and precisely predicted using the jitter model. An analytical equation is derived for the relationship between the interference frequency and amplitude for the jitter-minimum. The model requires only simple information from the gate circuit for the jitter calculation. It can be further developed into an analytical tool for predicting clock jitter under external electromagnetic interference.

Modeling of Photovoltaic System with Modified Incremental Conductance Algorithm for Fast Changes of Irradiance

The first objective of this work is to determine some of the performance parameters characterizing the behavior of a particular photovoltaic (PV) panels that are not normally provided in the manufacturers’ specifications. These provide the basis for developing a simple model for the electrical behavior of the PV panel. Next, using this model, the effects of varying solar irradiation, temperature, series and shunt resistances, and partial shading on the output of the PV panel are presented. In addition, the PV panel model is used to configure a large photovoltaic array. Next, a boost converter for the PV panel is designed. This converter is put between the panel and the load in order to control it by means of a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) controller. The MPPT used is based on incremental conductance (INC), and it is demonstrated here that this technique does not respond accurately when solar irradiation is increased. To investigate this, a modified incremental conductance technique is presented in this paper. It is shown that this system does respond accurately and reduces the steady-state oscillations when solar irradiation is increased. Finally, simulations of the conventional and modified algorithm are compared, and the results show that the modified algorithm provides an accurate response to a sudden increase in solar irradiation.

Behavioural New Keynesian Models

This paper provides a bird's eye view of the Behavioural New Keynesian literature. We discuss three key empirical regularities in macroeconomic data which are not accounted for by the standard New Keynesian model, namely, excess kurtosis, stochastic volatility, and departures from rational expectations. We then present a simple Behavioural New Keynesian model that accounts for these empirical regularities in a straightforward manner. We discuss elaborations and extensions of the basic model, and suggest areas for future research.

Modeling turbulent energy behavior and sudden viscous dissipation in compressing plasma turbulence

We present a simple model for the turbulent kinetic energy behavior of subsonic plasma turbulence undergoing isotropic three-dimensional compression, which may exist in various inertial confinement fusion experiments or astrophysical settings. The plasma viscosity depends on both the temperature and the ionization state, for which many possible scalings with compression are possible. For example, in an adiabatic compression the temperature scales as 1/L2, with L the linear compression ratio, but if thermal energy loss mechanisms are accounted for, the temperature scaling may be weaker. As such, the viscosity has a wide range of net dependencies on the compression. The model presented here, with no parameter changes, agrees well with numerical simulations for a range of these dependencies. This model permits the prediction of the partition of injected energy between thermal and turbulent energy in a compressing plasma.

Bid-to-cover and yield changes around public debt auctions in the euro area

Earlier research has shown that euro-area primary public debt markets affect secondary markets. We find that more successful auctions of euro area public debt, as captured by higher bid-to-cover ratios, lead to lower secondary-market yields following the auctions. This effect is stronger when market volatility is higher. We rationalize both findings using a simple theoretical model of primary dealer behavior, in which the primary dealers receive a signal about the value of the asset auctioned.

Thresholds: A model of religious governance and evolution

Religious organizations set thresholds of belief and behavior required of their members. In a simple model of individual religious behavior, this paper shows that if a religion denies the benefits of membership to those who fall short of the threshold, it stands to gain an increase in compliance with its rules by forcing members to the edge of defection, hence the incentive to set the thresholds strategically. When members’ compliance costs are private information, the model yields several regimes: a pooling contract if costs are close enough to each other, a separating contract if costs are different enough, and an expulsion solution if the proportion of high-cost types in the total membership is too low. Changes in costs and in membership composition trigger changes in thresholds and switches between regimes, thus providing a model of religious governance and evolution. We then review the history of sectarianism in the three monotheistic religions and show that the model can help account for the basic differences between them as well as explain the historical evolution of dogmas and behavioral rules within each of them. A specialized case study focuses on the evolution of Catholic religious orders.

Simulation Model Development for Packaged Cascode Gallium Nitride Field-Effect Transistors

This paper presents a simple behavioral model with experimentally extracted parameters for packaged cascode gallium nitride (GaN) field-effect transistors (FETs). This study combined a level-1 metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET), a junction field-effect transistor (JFET), and a diode model to simulate a cascode GaN FET, in which a JFET was used to simulate a metal-insulator-semiconductor high-electron-mobility transistor (MIS-HEMT). Using the JFET to simulate the MIS-HEMT not only ensures that the curve fits an S-shape transfer characteristic but also enables the pinch-off voltages extracted from the threshold voltage of the MIS-HEMT to be used as a watershed to distinguish where the drop in parasitic capacitance occurs. Parameter extraction was based on static and dynamic characteristics, which involved simulating the behavior of the created GaN FET model and comparing the extracted parameters with experimental measurements to demonstrate the accuracy of the simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis (SPICE) model. Cascode capacitance was analyzed and verified through experimental measurements and SPICE simulations. The analysis revealed that the capacitance of low-voltage MOSFETs plays a critical role in increasing the overall capacitance of cascode GaN FETs. The turn-off resistance mechanism effectively described the leakage current, and a double-pulse tester was used to evaluate the switching performance of the fabricated cascode GaN FET. LTspice simulation software was adopted to compare the experimental switching results. Overall, the simulation results were strongly in agreement with the experimental results.

The Geography of Consumption

We use detailed information from U.S. consumers' credit card purchases to provide the first large scale description of the geography of consumption. We find that consumers' mobility is quite limited and document significant heterogeneity in the importance of gravity across sectors. We develop a simple model of consumer behavior, emphasizing the role of the durability/storability of products, to organize the main stylized facts. Heterogeneity in the storability of products across sectors generates a positive correlation between the strength of gravity and the frequency of transactions at the sector level; this correlation is a clear feature of the data. Using daily rain precipitation from thousands of weather stations in U.S., we show that shocks to travel costs change the spatial distribution of expenditure, and they do so differentially across sectors: hence, the level and heterogeneity of travel costs' shape the level and elasticity of any merchant's demand. This evidence suggests that incorporating the demand-side is essential to analyzing the distributional consequences of local and aggregate shocks across regions. These results also suggest the demand-side is critical to understanding the location of firms and employment in the large and understudied service sector.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of spatio-temporal occupant behaviors on residential building energy usage utilizing Karhunen-Loève expansion

Occupant behaviors (e.g., switch/dim lights, adjust thermostat, etc.) have a big impact on building energy consumption. However, the occupant behavior in buildings is not well understood and oversimplified. In addition, a majority of current researches just focused on the occupant number variation and ignored the temporal variation (e.g., the occupant presence duration and arrive/leave time). This paper aims to use a whole building simulation program (i.e., EnergyPlus) to investigate the impacts of spatio-temporal occupant behaviors on residential building energy usage utilizing a simple static schedule-based behavior model through uncertainty analysis (UA) and sensitivity analysis (SA).A residential prototype building EnergyPlus model with two thermal zones from the U.S. Department of Energy is used for the case study. The chosen building type is a single-family detached house with three locations in U.S. 3000 EnergyPlus Monte Carlo simulations using a Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion based sampling method for each location is conducted. Occupancy behaviors related parameters including thermostat setpoints, occupancy and lighting schedules are randomly perturbed using a KL truncated expansion, which results in a 3.76% overall average coefficient of variation of selected input parameters. UA with such perturbation shows about a 4% impact on the HVAC annual and peak energy consumption, Annual building and HVAC electricity consumption, and hourly peak building and HVAC electricity consumption are selected for the study of impacts of the spatio-temporal occupant behaviors on building energy usage using Sobol and PEAR sensitivity index. SA Results show that thermostats setpoints have big influences on residential building energy usage.

Fear avoidance model – review of selected reports

SUMMARY: Based on the bio-psycho-social approach, fear-avoidance model can be used in situations when somebody avoids movement because of fear of pain. This model can be applied in groups of patients with low back pain and musculoskeletal pain and explains how acute pain becomes chronic. A simple behavioral model of classical and operant conditioning that explains activity avoidance was developed into a more sophisticated, cognitive-behavioral fear-avoidance model, postulating the existence of a vicious circle that causes increasing disability of patients in chronic pain. The variables involved in this mechanism are catastrophizing, fear of activity, avoiding movement, increased distress and fear-avoidance beliefs. This article also presents some further improvements to the model that include pain intensity and motivational theory. A brief overview of tools used in research on fear-avoidance is also presented. It is recommended to take Fear Avoidance Model in to consideration when working with patients with no improvement and the risk of recurrent episodes of pain. Further studies are needed to empirically verify the fear-avoidance model.

Cognitive approach to developing the intelligent modules of organizational and technical systems

The aim of the study is intelligent modules of organizational-technical systems (OTS) for solving the task of purposeful behavior taking into account features to operate the object in a rapidly changing external environment. A widely used computing paradigm contains inherent symbolic submissions of information and their processing with algorithms focused on the logic and combinatorics of procedures. This computer approach in solving some intellectual tasks is inferior to the man. One of the approaches to study complex tasks can be the use of a simpler model task. For such models, the article investigates the possibility of using the cognitive approach that can be used in the intelligent modules of OTS for solving tasks of purposeful behavior. In order to solve the task of purposeful behavior taking into account features to operate the object in a rapidly changing external environment a cognitive approach to cybernetic systems as intelligent modules of OTS can be used. The author considered the cybernetic approach to the evolution and use of simple model systems with purposeful behavior. A cognitive approach includes plenty of problems. The solution of these problems is connected with the methods, taking into account cognitive aspects referring to processes of perception, thinking, knowledge, explanations and understanding. In a system with a simple model the issues of categorization, the role and place of the Gestalt, the formation of the characteristic values as an important element of cognitive semantics are considered. In further studies it is necessary to pay due attention to the knowledge of cybernetic systems, their submissions, storage, processing, interpretation and production of new knowledge. As a result of the research, the structure of a cybernetic system with a simple model of behavior is proposed. This system is able to solve relatively simple tasks of purposeful behavior. When adding modules, providing recognition of primitive images (geometrical shapes, objects), speech recognition and the formation of voice messages, the cybernetic system is capable to form new signs about the outside world. Using such signs and new controlling actions, the robot can build a more complex interaction with reality. A new system (the robot KSUKHA) allows considering separate categories (the beginnings of the categories) for the further use. Separate categories can become the prototype categories for the future and distant descendants of this cybernetic system (robot) in this evolutionary tree. Application of the considered approach will allow us to come to the solution of tasks of forming categories, and in future to form basic categories to use cognitive mechanisms of human thinking. These mechanisms can be applied in cybernetic systems for solving the tasks of purposeful behavior.

Empirical Analysis and Agent-Based Modeling of the Lithuanian Parliamentary Elections

We analyze a parties’ vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008, and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation, we propose a simple multistate agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model, agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.

Bid-to-Cover and Yield Changes Around Public Debt Auctions in the Euro Area

Earlier research has shown that euro-area primary public debt markets affect secondary markets. We find that more successful auctions of euro area public debt, as captured by higher bid-to-cover ratios, lead to lower secondary-market yields following the auctions. This effect is stronger when market volatility is higher. We rationalize both findings using a simple theoretical model of primary dealer behavior, in which the primary dealers receive a signal about the value of the asset auctioned.

Analytical study of index-coupled herd behavior in financial markets

Herd behavior in financial markets had been investigated extensively in the past few decades. Scholars have argued that the behavioral tendency of traders and investors to follow the market trend, notably reflected in indices both on short and long time scales, is substantially affecting the overall market behavior. Research has also been devoted to revealing these behaviors and characterizing the market herd behavior. In this paper we present a simple herd behavior model for the dynamics of financial variables by introducing a simple coupling mechanism of stock returns to the index return, deriving analytic expressions for statistical properties of the returns. We found that several important phenomena in the stock market, namely the correlations between stock market returns and the exponential decay of short-term autocorrelations, are derived from our model. These phenomena have been given various explanations and theories, with herd market behavior being one of the leading. We conclude that the coupling mechanism, which essentially encapsulates the herd behavior, indeed creates correlation and autocorrelation. We also show that this introduces a time scale to the system, which is the characteristic time lag between a change in the index and its effect on the return of a stock.

A model of firm behaviour with bankruptey costs and imperfectly informed lenders

Based on Greenwald and Stiglitz (1988, 1990), this work explores a simple model of microeconomic behaviour that incorporates the impact of asymmetric information in capital markets on firms’ optimal investment decision rules. Starting from a model of equity-constrained firms, where expected bankruptcy costs (reflecting each firm’s quality) imply a higher user cost of capital and, thus, a lower investment by each firm, we move to a context of adverse selection in the debt market, where banks offer a ‘onesize-fits-all’ contractual interest rate. This implies that ‘poor’ firms tend to invest more vis-à-vis ‘good’ firms, since they now take into account that higher expected default rates may not be matched by comparably higher contractual interest rates, therefore weakening the impact of bankruptcy costs on firms’ investment decisions.

Signal velocity in oscillator arrays

We investigate a system of coupled oscillators on the circle, which arises from a simple model for behavior of large numbers of autonomous vehicles where the acceleration of each vehicle depends on the relative positions and velocities between itself and a set of local neighbors. After describing necessary and sufficient conditions for asymptotic stability, we derive expressions for the phase velocity of propagation of disturbances in velocity through this system. We show that the high frequencies exhibit damping, which implies existence of well-defined signal velocities c + > 0 and c − < 0 such that low frequency disturbances travel through the flock as f +(x − c + t) in the direction of increasing agent numbers and f −(x − c − t) in the other.

Predicting ventilator-induced lung injury using a lung injury cost function.

Managing patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) requires mechanical ventilation that balances the competing goals of sustaining life while avoiding ventilator-induced lung injury (VILI). In particular, it is reasonable to suppose that for any given ARDS patient, there must exist an optimum pair of values for tidal volume (VT) and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) that together minimize the risk for VILI. To find these optimum values, and thus develop a personalized approach to mechanical ventilation in ARDS, we need to be able to predict how injurious a given ventilation regimen will be in any given patient so that the minimally injurious regimen for that patient can be determined. Our goal in the present study was therefore to develop a simple computational model of the mechanical behavior of the injured lung in order to calculate potential injury cost functions to serve as predictors of VILI. We set the model parameters to represent normal, mildly injured, and severely injured lungs and estimated the amount of volutrauma and atelectrauma caused by ventilating these lungs with a range of VT and PEEP. We estimated total VILI in two ways: 1) as the sum of the contributions from volutrauma and atelectrauma and 2) as the product of their contributions. We found the product provided estimates of VILI that are more in line with our previous experimental findings. This model may thus serve as the basis for the objective choice of mechanical ventilation parameters for the injured lung.

Aerial Mobile Radiation Survey Following Detonation of a Radiological Dispersal Device.

A series of experiments was conducted in 2012 at the Defence Research and Development Canada's Suffield Research Centre in Alberta, Canada, during which three radiological dispersal devices were detonated. The detonations released radioactive (140)La into the air, which was then carried by winds and detectable over distances of up to 2 km. The Nuclear Emergency Response group of Natural Resources Canada conducted airborne radiometric surveys shortly following the explosions to map the pattern of radioactivity deposited on the ground. The survey instrument suite was based on large volume NaI(Tl) scintillation gamma radiation detectors, which were situated in a basket mounted exterior to the helicopter and oriented end-to-end to maximize the sensitivity. A standard geophysical data treatment was used to subtract backgrounds and to correct the data to produce counts due to (140)La at the nominal altitude. Sensitivity conversion factors obtained from Monte Carlo simulations were then applied to express the measurements in terms of surface activity concentration in kBq m(-2). Integrated over the survey area, the results indicate that only 20 to 25% of the bomb's original inventory of radioactive material is deposited within a 1.5-km radius of ground zero. These results can be accommodated with a simple model for the RDD behavior and atmospheric dispersion.

Controlling Dichroism of Molecular Crystals by Cocrystallization

A combined crystallographic and optical properties study offers a simple model for the dichroic behavior of crystalline azobenzene chromophores, leading to a cocrystallization strategy to manipulate their solid-state arrangement and, therewith, dichroic behavior. This supramolecular strategy represents the first entry of crystal engineering into the design of dichroism in organic crystals.