Silver Market Research Articles

Assessing the Effectiveness of Machine Learning Techniques for Silver Price Prediction: A Comparative Study

Silver is considered an important asset in terms of economic indicators and a valuable investment asset in terms of the markets. Therefore, determining silver prices is critically important for both national economies and investors. However, the non-stationary and non-linear nature of silver prices makes predicting price movements challenging. The methods used for predicting silver prices must be suitable for capturing these volatile and complex behavioral characteristics. The silver market can be influenced by other commodities and investment assets. Factors affecting silver prices, such as gold prices, Brent crude oil prices, the US Dollar index, the VIX index, and the S&P 500 index, can play a significant role. In this context, these variables have been used as inputs for predicting silver prices in the study. Three different models have been developed to predict the prices one, two, and three days ahead. These models have been predicted using four different machine learning methods: linear regression, support vector regression (SMOReg), k-nearest neighbors (k-NN), and random forest (RF). The results show that the random forest and k-NN methods exhibit the highest performance. The random forest achieves the highest accuracy in the first two models, while k-NN excels in the third model. Linear regression and SMOReg methods are less successful compared to the others. Consequently, it can be concluded that random forest and k-NN methods can be preferred for long-term predictions, and that these results may provide valuable insights, especially for investors and decision-makers.

Gaussian Process Regression Based Silver Price Forecasts

A significant number of market participants have placed a high level of importance on price estimates for the primary metal commodities for a considerable amount of time. To tackle the problem, we investigate the daily reported price of silver in our study. The sample that is being analyzed spans a period of 13 years, starting on April 20, 2011, and ending on April 19, 2024. The price series which is being investigated has important implications for the commercial world. Specifically, when it comes to this unique circumstance, Gaussian process regression models are developed utilizing cross-validation strategies and Bayesian optimization procedures. The forecasting of prices is therefore accomplished via the use of the methods that are developed as a result of the situation. For the out-of-sample evaluation period that extends from October 5, 2021 to April 19, 2024, our empirical forecasting approach yields price estimates deemed reasonably accurate. The relative root mean square error reached for the silver price is 0.2257%, with the corresponding root mean square error of 0.0515, mean absolute error of 0.0389, and correlation coefficient of 99.967%. Due to the availability of models that forecast prices, investors and governments are supplied with the information they need to make educated judgments on the silver market by providing them with the knowledge they require. The framework of the Gaussian process regression with Bayesian optimizations demonstrates its good potential for modeling and forecasting sophisticated commodity price series for market participants.

Past anthropogenic impacts revealed by trace elements in cave guano

Natural and human-induced toxic elements can accumulate in the environment, posing significant risks to human health and ecosystems. This study explores cave bat guano, an unconventional and relatively under-researched environmental repository, to reveal historical pollution trends and sources. Through trace elements analysis of a 1.5-m-thick guano deposit from Zidită Cave (Romania), we track changes in mining and metallurgy from 1000 CE–2012. We identified substantial pollution primarily from porphyry copper and Au–Ag–Te mines, but also impacts from usage of leaded gasoline and agricultural practices. Our record shows disruptions caused by the Bubonic plague around 1250 CE and a major surge ∼ 1500 CE. After the decline triggered by the European silver market collapse in 1525 CE, our study reveals a brief mining revival. This resurgence was followed by a continuous decline lasting until the early 1800s, driven by socio-economic upheavals and recurrent outbreaks of the bubonic plagues. The Industrial Revolution sparked prolonged growth that lasted until 1989 CE, only briefly interrupted by the Great Depression and World War II. Consequently, cave bat guano proves to be a critical resource for understanding spatial pollution patterns, both locally and regionally, and for identifying specific pollution sources.

Global silver market, current trends and consequences of the pandemic

Global silver market, current trends and consequences of the pandemic

Third Agers in India: Empirical Evidence From Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), 2017-2018.

Given that the ontological origins of the Third Age lie in the cultural logics of social class, consumer society and "habitus," a majority of its gerontological examination is qualitative in nature. We utilize the recently released Longitudinal Aging Study in India (2017-2018) and harness the time-use module to offer an empirical portrait of Third Agers in India. Considering that the aging scholarship in India has been often articulated in the empirical language of dependency, care regimes, and (economic) insecurity, we believe this examination allows us to shift the gerontological gaze from a risk perspective to one that is positive and affirmative. Following an exploratory factor analysis and nested linear regression, we corroborate the emergence of a "silver market" where educated, urban, affluent, and professionally qualified older Indians are the ones who are more likely to engage in active leisure pursuits. Noteworthy is the combined effects of wealth and professional education in determining who is ultimately able to "purchase" leisure in a highly segmented emerging senior market. In all, we conclude by discussing how these findings upend our cultural imagination around growing old in contemporary India.

Pazarlamanın “Gümüş Pazarı” Yaşlı Tüketiciler Üzerine Nitel Bir Araştırma

Abstract Rapidly flowing time, changing/transforming world and developing technology challenge us in the vital struggle of humanity. In every period of life, people try to keep up with this process and have to follow many parameters such as the global world and business disciplines. While doing this, one must also manage the troubles and difficulties brought by periods such as infancy, childhood and old age. The importance and size of this market of elderly consumers, which has become very popular in recent years and defined as the "silver market" of marketing, has accelerated with the aging of the world population. In this study; using a semi-structured interview form; through analogous sampling, the purchasing behaviors of a total of 9 elderly consumers aged 60 and over were examined in depth using descriptive and content analysis methods. In this regard, when the general outcomes of the study are considered in three themes; In terms of their purchasing behavior, they go shopping alone once a week, on weekdays and weekends; It has been observed that they do not consult the social circle when purchasing products/services from markets and neighborhood markets via credit card. Comparisons are made in terms of product/service usage, taking into account quality, price and similar factors; Priority is given to reliable brands for food, cleaning and health. In terms of the pandemic period, it has been determined that hygiene-mask causes changes in the shopping environment and shyness/fear. In summary, this study; it is important in the marketing sector to increase the awareness of older consumers about their daily life purchasing behavior and to raise awareness of this consumer group. In addition, they were asked questions within the scope of in-depth interview technique with the qualitative research method and the answers to these questions were interpreted. Keywords: Older consumers, Consumer behavior, Purchasing behavior, Silver market, Qualitative research

Search strategies in accessible tourism, barrier-free tourism, disabled tourism and easy access tourism literature

ObjetivoLa investigación relativa a la inclusión de las personas con discapacidad en las actividades turísticas comenzó mucho antes de que se diera un nombre formal a este campo de estudio. Esto ha llevado a los estudiosos a utilizar una gran variedad de expresiones para referirse a lo que ahora se conoce como Turismo Accesible (TA). Dado que esta diversidad de términos puede complicar la localización de publicaciones relevantes, este artículo pretende examinar la terminología utilizada en el contexto del TA.Diseño/metodología/enfoquEste estudio realiza una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura y un análisis estadístico de 613 documentos recopilados de Scopus, publicados entre 1984 y 2022.ResultadosLos resultados sugieren que, a pesar del uso generalizado de “Turismo Accesible” en la literatura reciente, la mayoría de los artículos publicados antes de 2010 no pueden recuperarse utilizando este término. Además, el análisis longitudinal de la producción científica reveló cuatro etapas distintas en función del número de publicaciones anuales.Limitaciones/implicaciones de la investigaciónEste trabajo tiene limitaciones que podrían inspirar futuros estudios, como basarse únicamente en Scopus para la recopilación de datos, incluir sólo artículos académicos, limitar el número de referencias y restringir la búsqueda a términos específicos. Futuras investigaciones podrían comparar estos Resultados utilizando una mayor cantidad de datos recogidos en otras bases de datos (por ejemplo, Google Scholar), incluyendo escritos no académicos (por ejemplo, periódicos, páginas web), explorando la eficacia de diferentes estrategias de búsqueda (por ejemplo, el mercado plateado) y profundizando en la evolución del discurso del TA en la sociedad.Implicaciones prácticasLos responsables políticos y las partes interesadas en el turismo pueden aprovechar las ideas de este documento para normalizar su vocabulario en las estrategias de comunicación y operativas. Los estudiosos pueden mejorar la eficacia de las búsquedas bibliográficas y desarrollar nuevas líneas de conocimiento inspiradas en los términos utilizados tradicionalmente para referirse al TA.Implicaciones socialesEste artículo anima a seguir investigando sobre el turismo accesible y subraya la importancia del lenguaje en el desarrollo de una sociedad más inclusiva.Originalidad/valorEsta investigación es pionera en el análisis de la evolución de la sinonimia del TA por años, naciones y autores. Aporta pruebas de cómo las elecciones lingüísticas reflejan los cambios en la comprensión social de la discapacidad. Este estudio propone un marco para distinguir la TA de otros modelos turísticos, facilitando la comunicación unificada entre las partes interesadas. Presenta estrategias para mejorar la eficacia en la localización de estudios en el ámbito de las TA y aboga por una sociedad inclusiva que utilice un lenguaje respetuoso con todas las personas.

Continuous Wavelet Transform of Time-Frequency Analysis Technique to Capture the Dynamic Hedging Ability of Precious Metals

Exploring the hedging ability of precious metals through a novel perspective is crucial for better investment. This investigation applies the wavelet technique to study the complicated correlation between global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and the prices of precious metals. The empirical outcomes suggest that GEPU exerts positive influences on the prices of precious metals, indicating that precious metals could hedge against global economic policy uncertainty, which is supported by the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM). Among them, gold is better for long-term investment than silver, which is more suitable for the short run in recent years, while platinum’s hedging ability is virtually non-existent after the global trade wars. Conversely, the positive influences from gold price on GEPU underline that the gold market plays a prospective role in the situation of economic policies worldwide, which does not exist in the silver market. Besides, the effects of platinum price on GEPU change from positive to negative, suggesting that the underlying cause of its forward-looking effect on GEPU alters from the investment value to the industrial one. In the context of the increasing instability of global economic policies, the above conclusions could offer significant lessons to both investors and governments.

On Volatility Transmission between Gold and Silver Markets: Evidence from A Long-Term Historical Period

Several studies estimate the volatility spillover effects between gold and silver returns, but none of them used the implied volatility to evaluate the long-term relationship between these two metal markets. Our paper aims to fill this gap in the existing literature. This paper investigates the long-term volatility transmission between gold and silver; by using GARCH and VAR modelling, it finds that the volatility transmission from gold to silver is unidirectional. Volatility strategies using options can be designed to take advantage of this especially in times where the volatility transmission is not captured by the markets. Additionally, the results appear to be useful for gaining better portfolio diversification benefits. Investors, for instance, could use the results of this study for making proper investment decisions during the period of economic down-turns or inflation surges.

Dynamic Changes in Noble Metal Prices under Long-term Uncertain Situation: Evidence from Normalized Covid-19 Pandemic

Covid-19 has severely hit global financial market since its outbreak. Investors who withdrawal funds in other areas will seek protection under the precious metals, a market known for its safety. This paper assesses the global and China regional daily new confirmed cases’ impacts on gold and silver price. A VAR and an ARMA-GARCH model are built to analyze the changes of the value and volatility. The paper finds that Chinese epidemic still has a positive impact on international precious metal market price while the effects other continents are little. As for volatility, the shock brought by the virus has no significant influence on gold and silver volatility. The paper aims to study how precious metal investors response to newly confirmed cases under normalized Covid-19 Pandemic. Based on the results, global gold and silver market overreacts to the cases in China in comparison with other lands; Thus, the research suggests Chinese Government to further stabilize local pandemics while investors decrease the reaction towards China side’s epidemic.

Revisiting the Silver Crisis

This paper examines the Silver Crisis of the late 1970s, which resulted in a $150 million lawsuit against the Hunt Brothers. In August 1988, the Hunt Brothers were found guilty by a jury of conspiracy, manipulation, monopolization, racketeering and fraud. Using a behavioural model, we aim to quantify the extent of manipulation in the silver market during the 1970s and the 1980s, with a specific focus on the period leading up to the Silver Crisis. Our behavioural model takes account of the role of fundamentals, manipulation and speculation. Our results indicate very little evidence of manipulation in the silver market in the run up to the Silver Crisis. Both fundamentals and speculation dominate the silver market during our sample, with speculation particularly important in the latter half of the 1970s. The distinction between manipulation and speculation is critical. While manipulation forces prices away from their fundamental value, speculation does not. Speculators certainly aim to take advantage of price changes but the actions are fully rational and consistent with the fundamental value of silver.

Realized higher-order moments spillovers between commodity and stock markets: Evidence from China

We construct daily realized volatility, skewness, and kurtosis using 5-min data of eight Chinese commodity futures and the Chinese stock market index from March 26, 2018 to October 22, 2020, then analyse the dynamic spillovers of realized moments among these markets. The results show that the spillover effects between commodity and stock markets intensify during shock periods such as ‘trade disputes between China and the United States’ and ‘COVID-19’. Volatility spillovers are relatively stronger than spillovers in skewness or spillovers in kurtosis; however, spillovers in higher-order moments seem to contain additional information. Shocks from the silver market influence realized moments of other markets. Soybean, corn, aluminium, and oil markets are affected by other markets. The contribution of wheat as a net transmitter to the system of spillovers between stock and commodity markets is only observed at higher-order realized moments. The results from OLS and quantile regressions show that the total spillovers are generally affected by the US stock market, economic uncertainties, and the COVID-19 outbreak.

An exploration of sources of volatility in the energy market: An application of a TVP-VAR extended joint connected approach

The energy market is volatile, but it became particularly gloomy when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. We employ a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) in combination with an extended joint connectedness approach to identify the sources of the energy market’s volatility. We study the interlinkages between four markets, namely the energy, crude oil, gold, and silver markets by characterizing their connectedness, employing data from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. Our results demonstrate that health shocks appear to have an influence on the system-wide dynamic connectedness, which reached a peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. Net total directional connectedness suggests that the oil and gold markets consistently appear to be the net transmitter of spillover shocks to the energy market. The roles of these two markets became more apparent during the COVID-19 health crisis. Although the silver market played different roles during the studied period, it also acts as a net transmitter of spillover shocks to the energy market during uncertain times. Pairwise connectedness highlights the significance of crude oil, gold, and silver as net transmitters of the effects of shocks to the energy market.

Examining the efficiency and herding behavior of commodity markets using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Empirical evidence from energy, agriculture, and metal markets

We examine the efficiency and herding behavior between four energy markets (Crude, Brent, Gasoline, and Natural gas), five agriculture markets (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Cocoa, and Coffee), and three metal markets (Gold, Silver, and Copper) using multifractal detrended fluctuation method. In addition to the full sample, the analysis also uses two most critical sub-periods of GFC 2007-09 and COVID-19 to reveal hidden features and herding patterns of the commodity markets. The results indicate existence of strong multifractality patterns and resultant inefficiency with varied degrees in the commodity markets. We find highest inefficiency in the copper market, followed by silver market. While cocoa remains most efficient commodity market during the entire period of study. In addition, energy markets remain more efficient compared to the rest of the two groups. Furthermore, the results confirm that crises events impact the efficiency of commodity markets significantly, and persistence behavior with a trace of herding is found in some of the markets. Whereas, silver and gold serve as useful hedging instruments during the crises. Our study is useful for risk management, regulatory supervision, and effective decision making for investors related to investments in the commodity markets.

The Mining Legacy of William S. Godbe

The Mining Legacy of William S. Godbe

Discovering silver market segments in cooking courses: The case of Basque Culinary Center

United Nations has confirmed that older populations who are aged 65 years and over now make up the fastest growing age group in the world. Virtually all countries are anticipating an increase in the percentage of older persons in their future population forecasts (United Nations, 2019). These demographic changes have driven the emergence of a large and growing segment of the consumer market whose needs still remain largely unknown and unmet (European Summit on Innovation for Active and Healthy Ageing, 2015).An ageing population and the increasing participation of seniors in tourism and leisure activities have prompted marketers, tourism providers and governments in many developed regions of the world to identify older persons as a fast-growing emerging market.Nevertheless, limited studies have been carried out on cooking, and cooking workshops or lessons for older adults. This paper focuses on profile of the students in cooking classes and, specifically the senior and presenior students at the “Fans program” at Basque Culinary Center, a pioneering academic institution whose main aim is higher education, research, innovation and promotion of gastronomy and nutrition. The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to explore the growing interest of older persons in experiential cooking lessons and (2) to provide key issues regarding the interest of older adults as a growing market.Following the National Poll of Healthy Eating at the University of Michigan, in recent years, cooking at home has emerged as a key strategy for healthy eating that many older adults already engage in frequently and report as a source of enjoyment https://www.healthyagingpoll.org/reports-more/report/joy-cooking-and-its-benefits-older-adults. Findings generated from this study will help to better understand the importance of cooking and healthy eating linked to older adults. A deeper comprehension on older adults and the benefits of cooking and keeping learning will shed some light regarding gastronomy and older persons and may contribute gastronomy through intergenerational recipe sharing.Hopefully this will lead to the development of innovative services so as to create effective programs tailored to meet the needs and wants of the senior market segment towards a better active and healthy ageing.

Policy Uncertainty, Oil Price, Stock Market and Precious Metal Markets Volatility Spillovers in the Russian Economy

The Russian economy is emerging, meaning that natural resources play a dominant role in economic development. Given the considerable volatility in resource prices, we investigate the volatility spillovers among policy uncertainty, international oil prices, exchange rate, stock index and metal prices covering the period of 2 July 2008 to 15 May 2020 for the Russian economy applying Dynamic Connectedness based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR). Our empirical investigation demonstrates that gold price, Russian policy uncertainty, oil price and stock index are net volatility contributors, whereas palladium, platinum, silver and exchange rate are net volatilities receivers. Market capitalisation and silver market are found to be the highest net contributor and net receiver, respectively. The palladium appears as a net volatility receiver initially, just after the global financial crisis. The Russian economic policy uncertainty appears to be the dominant volatility contributor from 2008 to 2014, but onward it turned to be a net volatility receiver. Over the year 2014, gold price was the prominent volatility contributor to another market when the oil price dropped significantly. The total connectivity of the markets are highly anchored with several exogenous shocks, including economic sanction, adoption of floating exchange rate, oil price plunge. Our empirical findings provide several policy implications to portfolio managers and Russian regional stakeholders.

Quantile Dependence and Portfolio Management between Oil, Gold, Silver and MENA Stock Markets

Quantile Dependence and Portfolio Management between Oil, Gold, Silver and MENA Stock Markets

АНАЛІЗ СУЧАСНОГО СИРОВИННОГО РИНКУ ЮВЕЛІРНОЇ ПРОМИСЛОВОСТІ

This article is dedicated to analyze of modern tendency of wold commodity market of jewelry industry. At the article the determine of jewelry. At the article was analyzed modern value of raw material of jewelry industry: gold and silver. The main gold and silver mining countries were determined, were analyzed the value of mining and consumption of gold and silver. The market of gold can be viewed from both side as finance market and as raw market. Gold mining is global business with deals on all continents, accepts Antarctica. For many countries, mining of gold is factor of economic development, foreign investment. Mining of gold gets currencies and tax, transport. Market of gold, as raw market has such tendency: large field of gold is at some countries: China (average specific gravity 12,4%), USA (average specific gravity 7,14%), Russia (average specific gravity 7, 42%), Australia (average specific gravity 8,66%). At these countries are watched noticeable and constant growth in production of gold. The main of golden custom is jewelry - average specific gravity 45,60%. The main customer of golden is jewelry industry of India (746 t), Turkey (153t), Saudi Arabia (109t), Russia (109t) and USA (179t). These countries are the main producer of golden jewelries. Another raw market jewelry is silvery market. The world silver market is very monopolized. The main region of mining is countries of Latin America. The main silver mining countries are Mexico (average specific gravity 22,60%), Peru (average specific gravity 17,32%), China (average specific gravity 10,88%). The main field of consumer of silver in electronic industries, photos, and only at third point is jewelry. Consumption of silver of jewelry is not large. Last year such tendency are observed: falling of silver mining rates. It means rather falling of silver reserves, but improve recycling of silver. Also rather rates of silver custom, The most falling is at manufacture of jewelries and silver plate. Investment to silver is very actual. As source of statistic information are using of international organization report: World Gold Council, World Silver Institute.

Volatility Factors of Returns and Risk Analysis Using Quantile Risk Measures in the Gold and Silver Market

The aim of the paper is to identify unobservable factors that may significantly determine the level of gold and silver returns and to assess the risk of investment in these metals. To measure risk, the value at risk and other, less popular measures are used: the ES, MS, Rachev ratio and GlueVaR risk measure. Normal and Student’s t‑distributions are used as theoretical distributions. The results of the study show that we can identify latent factors based on observable variables that have a significant impact on the level of gold and silver returns. In addition, it was observed that the risk measures would vary depending on the period of research. It was shown that the estimates of the risk measures using Student’s t‑distribution have a lower estimation error than those based on the normal distribution.