Significant Predictor Of Early Death Research Articles

Prognostic Index for Liver Radiation (PILiR)

A Prognostic Index for Liver Radiation (PILiR) for improved patient selection for stereotactic liver-directed radiotherapy (SBRT) was developed. Using a large single-center database, 195 patients treated with SBRT for local control, including 66 with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 129 with metastatic liver disease, were analyzed. Only patients ineligible for alternative treatments were included. Overall survival was 11.9 months and 9.4 months in the HCC group and metastatic groups, respectively. In the combined dataset, Child–Pugh Score (CPS) (p = 0.002), serum albumin (p = 0.039), and presence of extrahepatic disease (p = 0.012) were significant predictors of early death on multivariable analysis and were included in the PILiR (total score 0 to 5). Median survival was 23.8, 9.1, 4.5, and 2.6 months for patients with 0, 1–2, 3, and 4–5 points, respectively. In the HCC dataset, CPS (p < 0.001) and gross tumor volume (p = 0.013) were predictive of early death. In the metastatic dataset, serum albumin (p < 0.001) and primary disease site (p = 0.003) were predictive of early death. The AUC for the combined, HCC, and metastatic datasets are 0.78, 0.84, and 0.80, respectively. Poor liver function (defined by CPS and serum albumin) and extrahepatic disease were most predictive of early death, providing clinically important expected survival information for patients and caregivers.

Prognostic predictors of early mortality from exsanguination in adult trauma: a Malaysian trauma center experience

BackgroundTrauma mortality due to exsanguination is the second most common cause of death. The objective of this study is to investigate the predictors for early death from exsanguination.MethodsA prognostic study...

Characteristics features and factors influencing early death in Acute promyelocytic leukemia; Experience from United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Although acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a curable hematologic malignancy, early death (ED) remains a significant cause of treatment failure especially in developing countries. In a retrospective data analysis of 67 adult APL patients diagnosed in United Arab Emirates we report an ED rate of 11.9% which is comparable to that reported from more developed countries. We identified the following parameters at presentation as significant predictor of increased ED: Age >40years (P=0.015), fever (P=0.030), WBC count >20×109/L (P=0.010), the breakpoints other than bcr1 (P=0.043) and fibrinogen level <1.5g/L (P=0.025). Delay in ATRA administration beyond 24h from admission and fibrinogen <150mg/dL were also significant predictors of ED, but only among high-risk patients (P=0.035 and P=0.033, respectively). WBC count >10×109/L and expression of HLA-DR (P=0.018) or CD2 (P=0.017) were significant predictors for differentiation syndrome (DS) which was found to be a predictor of ED (P=0.002). Reducing the APL related ED rate in centers with limited resources is feasible provided early initiation of ATRA administration and early correction of coagulopathy in high-risk patients in addition to prompt treatment of DS. To our knowledge this is the first report from the Arabian Gulf describing ED in APL.

Characterizations of Clinical and Therapeutic Histories for Men With Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality

BackgroundCareful descriptions of men with prostate cancer (PCa)-specific mortality are scant in nontrial settings. The present retrospective review describes the clinical characteristics, timelines, and treatment histories from initial presentation to death in a cohort of men with metastatic, castrate-resistant PCa (mCRPC). Unique to the present study is the unequivocal attribution of PCa death by a single experienced clinician. Patients and MethodsA total of 119 patients who had been treated at Tulane Cancer Center and had died of mCRPC from 2008 to 2015 were studied through a retrospective review of the medical records. ResultsThe median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 40-85 years), and 34.4% of the patients presented with metastatic disease (stage M1). Of these patients, 56% had received definitive primary therapy, all had received androgen-deprivation therapy, and 52% had received docetaxel. The patients had received a median of 7 (1-14) systemic therapies before death. Most were secondary hormonal manipulations after the diagnosis of mCRPC (median, 4; range, 0-9). The median survival was 69 months (range, 5-270 months) after diagnosis, and the median age at death was 73 years (range, 47-95 years). The presence of metastases at diagnosis was a significant predictor of early death (hazard ratio, 4.33; P < .001), and definitive primary therapy was a significant predictor of longer survival (P < .001). The median survival for patients presenting with metastases was 39 months (range, 5-235 months) compared with 100 months (range, 6-270 months) for those with localized disease (P < .001). The median age at diagnosis between the docetaxel- and non–docetaxel-treated patients was significantly different at 62 and 71 years, respectively (P = .002). ConclusionThe present retrospective analysis provides initial views clarifying the clinical characteristics of men dying of mCRPC and the therapies they received before death. Additional data are needed in multi-institutional settings to confirm these findings.

Risk factors of early and late mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair for complicated stanford B acute aortic dissection.

The risk factors associated with death in complicated Stanford B acute aortic dissection (AAD) after thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to evaluate the early and late events and mortality of complicated Stanford B AAD associated with TEVAR. Sixty-two patients with complicated Stanford B AAD undergoing TEVAR were included in this study. Primary technical success of TEVAR was achieved in 61 (98.39%) cases. The early mortality rate was 9.68%. Procedural type I endoleak (p = 0.007, OR = 7.71, 95% CI: 1.75-34.01) and cardiac tamponade (p = 0.010, OR = 8.86, 95% CI: 1.70-4 6.14) were the significant predictors of early death in the multivariate model. The late mortality was 16.07%. Cox regression analysis revealed rupture of false lumen (p = 0.001, hazard ratio = 21.96, 95% CI: 3.02-82.12), postoperative myocardial infarction (p = 0.001, hazard ratio = 9.86, 95% CI: 2.12-39.64), and acute renal failure (p = 0.024, hazard ratio = 3.98, 95% CI: 1.26-12.11) to be independent risk factors of late mortality. Type I procedural endoleak and cardiac tamponade were the significant predictors of early death in patients of complicated Stanford B AAD undergoing TEVAR. Rupture of false lumen, postoperative myocardial infarction, and acute renal failure were the independent risk factors for late death after TEVAR.

Elevated Serum Levels Of Von Willebrand Factor (vWF) Predict For Early Death and Shorter Survival In Patients With Primary Systemic Light Chain (AL) Amyloidosis Independently Of Cardiac Biomarkers

Organ dysfunction in systemic light chain (AL) amyloidosis is caused by the deposition of amyloid fibrils composed of immunoglobulin light chains in tissue microcirculation. vWF is mainly produced, stored and secreted by endothelial cells (ECs) and it is critical for thrombus formation. The secretion of vWF by ECs is triggered by several conditions and it has been proposed that changes in the levels of circulating vWF may reflect a state of “stimulation” of the endothelium. Cardiac involvement is the main determinant of prognosis in AL amyloidosis, but the role of endothelium in this disease has not been extensively studied and no marker of endothelial dysfunction has been evaluated, as yet. Thus, we studied the prognostic role of vWF in patients with AL amyloidosis who were treated with novel agents.The vWF antigen (vWFag) levels were measured using a latex particle-enhanced immunoturbidimetric assay (HemosIL vWF antigen) with an automated coagulometer (ACL Top 3G, Instrumentation Laboratory, Lexington, MA, USA). The inter- and intra-assay CVs were 2% and 3% at a concentration of 123.5 U/dL, respectively, and the lower limit of detection was 2.2 U/dL.The analysis included 81 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed AL amyloidosis who were treated in a single center (Department of Clinical Therapeutics, University of Athens, Greece) from 2005 to 2012. Median age of the patients was 68 years (range 42-82 years) and the median number of involved organs was 2; heart was involved in 62%, kidneys in 74%, peripheral nerve in 24%, liver in 9% and soft tissue in 21% of patients. Median NTproBNP level was 2,318 pg/mL (range 33-75,000 pg/mL); 36% had NTproBNP levels ≥4,000 pg/mL and 28%, 38% and 34% of patients had Mayo stage -1, -2 and -3, respectively. Primary therapy based on bortezomib was given in 52% of patients, on lenalidomide in 44%, while 4% received MDex. Median survival of the cohort was 47 months; 3- and 6-month mortality was 12% and 20%, respectively.The median serum level of vWFag in patients with AL amyloidosis was 181 (range 20-557) U/dL and was significantly higher than that measured in healthy controls (median: 84 U/dL, range 48-124; p <0.001). There was no significant association of vWFag levels with renal, cardiac, nerve or liver involvement. There was no significant correlation of vWFag levels with the levels of NTproBNP (or BNP) or Mayo stage and there was no significant correlation with the degree of renal dysfunction, serum albumin levels or proteinuria. Levels of involved free light chains did not have any correlation with vWFag levels either.We then examined the prognostic significance of vWFag and we found that levels of vWFag within the top quartile (≥230 U/dL) were associated with a very poor outcome (median survival 4 months vs. 47 months, p=0.001). Because the most important predictor of early death in patients with AL amyloidosis is cardiac involvement, we performed a multivariate analysis which included NTproBNP levels: vWFag levels ≥230 U/dL were independently associated with survival (HR: 2.64, 95% CI 1.2-5.8, p=0.01), along with NTproBNP levels ≥4,000 pg/ml (HR: 4.17, 95% CI 1.98- 8.8, p<0.001). Because the survival curves indicated that patients with vWFag ≥230 U/dL had a significant probability of early death, we performed an analysis to identify whether vWFag is a significant predictor of early death, adjusting for the levels of NTproBNP ≥4000 pg/mL. Thus, in multivariate analysis, vWFag ≥230 U/dL was independent predictor of death within 6 months from initiation of therapy (HR: 15, 95% CI 2.6-84, p=0.002) together with NTproBNP ≥4,000 pg/mL (HR: 16.8, 95% CI 3- 94, p=0.001). A combination of the two risk factors was able to identify patients at a very high risk of early death: 75% of patients with both risk factors present died within 3 months from initiation of therapy (figure).In conclusion, vWFag levels are elevated in patients with AL amyloidosis but are not correlated with other features of the disease, such as pattern of organ involvement and cardiac biomarkers. For the first time, we found that high levels of vWFag are associated with a high risk of early death and shorter survival in patients with AL amyloidosis, independently of cardiac biomarkers. In addition, wWFag levels improve the prognostic ability of cardiac biomarkers in patients with AL amyloidosis. Our data also justify the investigation of the role of endothelial dysfunction in AL amyloidosis. [Display omitted] [Display omitted] Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Comorbidity as a risk factor for overall survival and decision criteria for intensity of chemotherapy in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia

This single-center study estimated the significance of pretreatment factors, including comorbidities, which may predict outcome in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia and determined how poor risk factors may be used as decision criteria for intensity of chemotherapy in this group of patients. Seventy-seven patients aged ≥ 55 years treated under four different regimens were followed up 36 month. Our results suggest that the most significant predictor for poor overall survival is comorbidity, as scored by the Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI), P = 0.008. The most significant predictor for rate of complete remission is serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, P = 0.049, and the most significant predictor of early death is leucocytosis, P = 0.007. HCT-CI ≥ 3 was the most significant factor for treatment decision making regarding intensity of chemotherapy. The use of standardized comorbidity assessment tools, such as HCT-CI, for elderly patients with AML is practical and can help to improve treatment decision regarding the intensity of chemotherapy.

Type IV Thoracoabdominal Aneurysm Repair: Predictors of Postoperative Mortality, Spinal Cord Injury, and Acute Intestinal Ischemia

Our purpose was to identify preoperative and intraoperative predictors of early mortality, spinal cord injury, or acute intestinal ischemia after repair of type IV thoracoabdominal aneurysm (TAA IV) as a basis for optimizing surgical indications and techniques. From January 1991 to June 2006 we operated on 171 patients for TAA IV. There were 149 men (87.1%) and 22 women (12.9%), with a mean age of 65.0 +/- 10.9 years (range 23-82). The underlying etiology was degenerative aneurysmal disease in 143 patients (83.6%). Twenty-two patients (12.8%) underwent emergent operation. Comorbidity included coronary disease in 72 patients (45.6%) including 39 who had undergone a revascularization procedure, arterial hypertension in 121 (70.1%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 81 (47.4%), and chronic kidney insufficiency in 58 (33.9%). Seventy-six patients (44.4%) presented concurrent lesions involving at least one visceral artery. Spinal cord arteriography was performed in 91 patients (53.2%). In 25 cases (27.5%) arteriographic findings demonstrated the need for revascularization of the Adamkiewicz artery due to location of the ostium at or below the T12 level. Repair was carried out with cross-clamping only in 160 cases (93.6%). Partial cardiopulmonary bypass was used in 11 patients (6.4%). A total of 23 patients (13.4%) died postoperatively. The cause of death was acute intestinal ischemia in nine cases, multiple organ failure in seven, coagulation disorder in three, cardiac complications in two, and stroke in two. Spinal cord injury occurred in eight patients (4.7%) including two who died. According to univariate analysis, the significant predictors of early death were age over 70 years, degenerative aneurysmal disease, coronary artery disease, chronic renal insufficiency or visceral artery lesions, operator, duration of intestinal ischemia and use of a "complex" surgical technique. Although the only significant predictor of spinal cord injury was duration of digestive ischemia, an almost significant trend (p < 0.1) was observed for coronary artery disease, coronary bypass, and renal insufficiency. The significant predictors of acute intestinal ischemia were kidney insufficiency and visceral artery lesions, but coronary artery disease and previous coronary bypass were almost significant (p = 0.06). Frequent association of TAA IV with arteriosclerotic disease in elderly patients presenting coronary artery disease and chronic kidney insufficiency partly explains why early postoperative mortality remains high. The incidence of spinal cord injury suggests that preoperative spinal cord arteriography is mandatory for prevention. The frequency of intestinal ischemia is more problematic, but a better understanding of the underlying mechanism should enable development of preventive strategies.

Composite Valve Graft Replacement of the Aortic Root: Twenty-Seven Years of Experience at One Japanese Center

The aim of this study was to evaluate the early and long-term results of a composite valve graft root replacement for various aortic root diseases. Between 1978 and 2005, 273 patients with various disorders of the aortic root underwent a composite valve graft root replacement. The mean age of the patients was 47.5 +/- 13.2 years. There were 93 patients with Marfan syndrome, 56 aortitis, and 63 type A aortic dissections. Thirty-nine emergency operations and 55 redo operations were included. For the proximal anastomosis, a skirted technique was used in 157 patients. For the coronary reconstruction, Bentall's original inclusion technique was utilized in 36 patients, a direct button technique in 159, and a graft interposition technique in 63. The mean follow-up was 106 months. The in-hospital mortality was 9.5%. An emergency operation emerged as a significant predictor of early death. The actuarial survival rate was 87.0% and 72.9% at 5 and 15 years, respectively. The age at the operation, aortitis, Marfan syndrome, and use of a standard proximal anastomosis emerged as independent determinants of late death. The actuarial reoperation free rate was 96.3% and 89.7% at 5 and 15 years, respectively. In the patients who underwent the skirted technique the incidence of late graft detachment was less frequent than that of the standard technique. A composite valve graft root replacement is a safe and reliable procedure for various aortic root diseases with stable early- and long-term results. The skirted technique seems to be attractive to avoid late graft detachment even in cases with a fragile inflammatory pathology.

Raised Serum Urea Predicts for Early Death in Small Cell Lung Cancer

Aims Previous studies have defined prognostic factors predicting a favourable response to treatment and long-term survival in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients. Here we sought specific pre-treatment features predicting early death in SCLC. Materials and methods An exploratory cohort of 62 patients with poor prognosis SCLC and a separate confirmatory independent cohort of 152 unselected SCLC patients were identified to determine risk factors for early death, defined as within 8 weeks of diagnosis. Results In an exploratory cohort of patients with poor prognosis SCLC, 46 received chemotherapy and 16 patients received no chemotherapy. Multivariate analysis of chemotherapy patients showed a raised serum urea to be predictive of early death — increasing the risk by 13-fold (odds ratio 13.3, 95% confidence interval = 2.8–64). In a separate cohort of 152 unselected SCLC patients, 123 received chemotherapy and 29 did not. Logistic regression analysis of treated patients showed that performance status >2 (P = 0.009), urea > upper limit of normal (P = 0.01), neutrophil count >10 (P = 0.024) and weight loss >10% (P = 0.03) significantly contributed to the risk of early death. Of note, raised serum urea increased the risk of early death by 12-fold (odds ratio 11.8, 95% confidence interval = 1.8–76.9). Conclusion We have shown that pre-treatment raised serum urea is a significant predictor of early death. This readily available information will be useful for assessing SCLC patients at the bedside and discussing the risks of chemotherapy with them.

Risk factors for early and late mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair

The risk factors associated with death after thoracic endovascular aortic repair are poorly understood. The aim of this study is to analyze the risk factors associated with early and late mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. A total of 153 patients underwent 184 thoracic endovascular aortic repairs between 1998 and 2005. Prospectively collected data were entered into statistical software. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. The underlying pathologies included descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (n = 91), acute type B aortic dissection (n = 25), chronic type B aortic dissection (n = 42), aortic transection (n = 12), and penetrating aortic ulcer (n = 14). Thoracic endovascular aortic repair was technically successful in all but 3 patients. Another 3 patients required an open repair within the first month. Early and late mortality rates were 9.8% (n = 18) and 19% (n = 35) in a 16-month average period of follow-up, respectively. Type I procedural endoleak was the only significant predictor of early death in the multivariate model (P = .0036; odds ratio: 8.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.6-43.9). Multivariate Cox regression revealed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P = .024; odds ratio: 3.8; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-12.1), postoperative myocardial infarction (P = .0053; odds ratio: 9.7; 95% confidence interval: 2.0-48.4), and acute renal failure (P = .0006; odds ratio: 22.8; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-137.6) to be independent risk factors for late mortality. Procedural type I endoleak is an independent risk factor of early mortality after thoracic endovascular aortic repair. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, postoperative myocardial infarction, and acute renal failure are predictors of late death in the multivariate analysis.

Long-Term Mortality from Alcoholism: A Descriptive Analysis

Short-term alcoholism mortality studies are limited in their ramifications for long-term, comprehensive treatment program planning. Therefore, this study was pursued for more than 33 years to answer questions such as how, when, and why alcoholics die after discharge from an intermediate care component of a comprehensive community-based treatment program. A cohort of 500 alcoholics admitted in five groups of 100 in the years 1963, 1964, 1967, 1970, and 1972 to an intermediate care unit of a community-based, comprehensive treatment program was tracked for 33-42 years to document deaths. Case-fatality rate (CFR) and cause-specific mortality rate were computed and correlated with follow-up lag and ethnicity. Four hundred and forty nine subjects died within 39 years, with 50% of the deaths occurring by Year 11. Average annual CFR was .057. Cause-specific mortality varied over time and with ethnicity. Deaths attributable to lifestyle causes (i.e., suicide, homicide, accidents, and AIDS) occurred disproportionately in the earlier years of the follow-up, claiming the youngest and ethnic minority (black and Hispanic) persons disproportionately to white. Whites tended to live longer, but all three racial/ethnic groups died of lifestyle causes at young ages, early in the follow-up series, and at relatively older ages from cancer and diseases of the lung late in the follow-up series. Comprehensive treatment programs must prepare for lifestyle crises soon after discharge from intermediate care and for organ diseases later. Ethnicity is a significant predictor of early death in alcoholic cohorts and must be considered in comprehensive treatment program planning.

Changes in serum P1NP, BAP, CTX-1, and YKL-40 following hormonal treatment for metastatic prostate carcinima are related to survival

20002 Background: Previously it has been demonstrated that elevated P1NP, BAP, CTX-1, and YKL-40 levels at the time of diagnosis in patients with metastatic prostatic carcinoma were associated with survival. This study presents a follow-up to evaluated the prognostic value of thes biomarkers in a time-dependent analysis. Methods: Serum P1NP, BAP, CTX-1, and YKL-40 were determined in 106 patients with newly diagnozed metastatic prostatic carcinoma following start of either total androgen ablation or parenteral estrogen theraphy. Results: After 6 months of treatment significant decreases in P1NP, BAP, and YKL-40 were found. Univariate Cox analysis demonstrated that 6 month levels of P1NP, BAP, and CTX-1 were significantly associated with survival. In a multivatiate analysis using tumormarker levels at 6 months after start of treatment demonstrated that Soloway score (HR=3.9), WHO grade (HR=3.9), and P1NP (HR=2.2) all were significant predictors of survival. When using the biomarkers mentioned above as time-dependent co-variates in univariate COX regression analysis it could be shown that increasing levels og P1NP, BAP, and YKL-40 alle were significant predictors of early death. Conclusions: Serial monitoring of serum P1NP, BAP, CTX-1, and YKL-40 in patients with metastatic prostatic carcinoma during hormonal treatment provide information on prognosis. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Acute Pulmonary Embolism on MDCT of the Chest: Prediction of Cor Pulmonale and Short-Term Patient Survival from Morphologic Embolus Burden

To predict cor pulmonale and short-term outcome in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE), we retrospectively investigated three morphology-based MDCT systems for scoring pulmonary artery obstruction. Eighty-nine consecutive patients (51 men and 38 women; age range, 23-83 years; median, 63.3 years) with an MDCT diagnosis of acute PE were included in the study. Sixty-four patients had a coexisting malignancy. PE severity was assessed by two masked observers using three percentage arterial obstruction indexes: two severity scores adapted from conventional angiography (excluding and including arterial branch obstruction grading: scores A and B, respectively) and a CT-derived severity score (index C). Echocardiographic reports were reviewed for elevation of right ventricular pressure. Obstruction index results were analyzed for correlation with pulmonary artery pressures and for prediction of cor pulmonale and 30-day survival. Statistical analysis included kappa, analysis of variance, linear correlation, chi-square, and logistic regression tests. Kappa values of 0.89, 0.82, and 0.78 were obtained for interobserver agreement on PE severity for indexes A, B, and C, respectively. PE severity was moderate but varied significantly between the scores (for index A: median, 25.0%; range, 6.3-100; for index B: median, 12.5%; range, 3.1-65.6; for index C: median, 7.1%; range, 0.65-65.8; p < 0.0001 [analysis of variance]). Index C correlated best with pulmonary artery pressures (r = 0.69; p < 0.0016) and the presence of cor pulmonale (p = 0.0051; odds ratio [OR], 1.20/percentage increase [95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.35]; for an index C cutoff of 21.3%: p = 0.0001; positive predictive value, 1; negative predictive value, 0.87). Eight patients died within 30 days after CT. The PE severity of indexes A and B was not associated with patient outcome (p > 0.05). With score C, PE severity was a significant predictor of early death (p = 0.018; OR, 1.03/percentage increase [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.06]; for an index C cutoff of 21.3%: p = 0.018; overall OR, 6.77; positive predictive value, 0.24; negative predictive value, 0.96). Mastora score was a significant predictor of cor pulmonale and short-term outcome and may therefore allow therapy and risk stratification in patients with acute PE.

Prognostic factors in brain metastases: can we determine patients who do not benefit from whole-brain radiotherapy?

Whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT) is a standard treatment recommendation for patients with brain metastases. The goal of treatment is symptom control, which in the short run can be often achieved by steroids. Patients with a short life expectancy may not derive benefit from the addition of radiation. The ability to identify this group would aid the decision of whether to recommend WBRT. Data on all patients referred for WBRT to palliative radiotherapy teams at two comprehensive cancer centres were prospectively collected over a 2-year period. The most frequent radiation dose and fractionation was 2000 cGy in 5 fractions over 1 week. Multivariate logistic regression analysis using forward stepwise selection process was used to develop a prediction model for early death (before 8 weeks). The variables considered were sex, performance status, primary disease, weight loss, age, time from primary diagnosis to brain metastases diagnosis, number of metastatic sites and Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) status. Two hundred and seventy-five patients with brain metastases were assessed. The median follow-up was 19 weeks, and estimated median overall survival was 5.3 months. Multivariate regression revealed Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status and number of metastatic sites to be significant predictors of early death. The odds ratios were 2.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-3.19) and 1.39 (95% CI 1.07-1.81), respectively. Sixty-eight per cent of patients could be correctly classified; however, 55% would have been incorrectly predicted to die early. Poor performance status and number of metastatic sites are useful predictors of early death. A regression model was highly predictive overall, but this was primarily due to a high negative predictive value of 86%. The ability to predict patients who would die early (positive predictive value) was only 45%. Thus, despite the understanding that we are over-treating a subset of patients, further research is required to identify patients who do not require radiotherapy.

Surgery for Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm: Early and Late Results of a Prospective Study by the AURC in 1989

This study determines the early and late survival rates, the causes of death, and prognostic variables that are associated with early and late survival after for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). These are based on the prospective analysis of 628 variables of data on 158 consecutive patients in 24 centers of our association in 1989. Patients were followed up for a mean of 42.1 +/- 21.0 months. Six patients were lost to follow-up. To identify the variables that were associated with early and late survival, statistical methods included logistic regression analysis, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and Cox regression analysis. The survival rate was 52.9% +/- 14.4% at 1 month, 48.8% +/- 15.8% at 1 year, 48.1% +/- 16.0 at 2 years, 40.3 +/- 19.2% at 3 years, and 35.0 +/- 21.8 at 4 years. The cause of the 73 (46.2%) early deaths were cardiac (33), hemorrhage (29), colonic necrosis (5), stroke (2), graft infection (2), pneumonia (1), and kidney failure (1). Significant predictors of early death were the presence of a common iliac aneurysm (p < 0.02), the age of the patient (p < 0.02), a previous history of stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) (p < 0.04), a bifurcated graft (p < 0.04), a saccular aneurysm (p < 0.06), the blood creatinine level (p < 0.06), and hypotension on admission (p < 0.06). The causes of the 28 (17.7%) late deaths were heart disease (11), cancer (8), stroke (3), another operation (3), graft infection (1), pneumonia (1), and Alzheimer disease (1). Significant predictors of late death were heavy smoking (p < 0.03) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (p < 0.07). Rupture of an abdominal aortic aneurysm remains a catastrophic event. Even after a successful cure of a ruptured AAA, cardiovascular causes of death are responsible for survival rates that are significantly lower than that in a matched nonaneurysmal population.

Early clinical results of retrograde cerebral perfusion for aortic arch operations in Japan

In Japan, retrograde cerebral perfusion (RCP) has been used for protection of the brain since 1986. The techniques vary by institution, and thus the optimum perfusion conditions have not yet been established. A survey of 49 institutions was performed to investigate the early results of RCP in Japan. There were 228 patients collected, 46 (20.2%) of whom sustained brain complications. Twenty-seven patients had permanent and 19, temporary neurologic dysfunction. There were 31 early deaths (13.6%) and an additional 14 hospital deaths (6.1%). Significant predictors of brain complications and mortality were evaluated by univariate analysis and multivariate analysis using stepwise logistic regression. By multivariate analysis, preoperative cardiac arrest (odds ratio 8.901, p = 0.0004) and RCP duration longer than 60 minutes (odds ratio 3.234, p = 0.0352) were significant predictors of permanent neurologic dysfunction. Preoperative hemodynamic compromise (odds ratio 6.150, p = 0.0070), presence of preoperative neurologic symptoms (odds ratio 7.155, p = 0.0283), and left thoracotomy (odds ratio 2.37, p = 0.0335) were significant predictors of early death. Duration of RCP was the single RCP-related factor predictive of a brain complication (odds ratio 1.025 per minute, p < 0.0001). The incidence of permanent neurologic dysfunction was less than 10% when the RCP time was shorter than 60 minutes but increased abruptly when the RCP time exceeded 100 minutes, and it remained approximately 15% between 60 and 99 minutes. Less than 60 minutes of RCP can be tolerated with minimal risk of brain complication. Retrograde cerebral perfusion is one method of cerebral protection during circulatory arrest. This method is not the complete answer for brain protection, but, given specific guidelines, it may help prolong the safe time of circulatory arrest.

Timing, mode, and predictors of death after direct angioplasty for acute myocardial infarction.

The timing and mechanisms of early (30 day) mortality in 330 consecutive patients treated with direct angioplasty less than 12 hr after onset of myocardial infarction without antecedent thrombolysis were studied. There were 38 deaths (11.5% of pts), with a majority being due to cardiogenic shock (76%). Other causes included acute closure (11%), death after emergency bypass surgery (5%), ventricular arrhythmias (5%), and respiratory failure (3%). No deaths from stroke or cardiac rupture were seen, in contrast to trials of thrombolytic agents. Most deaths were seen early, with 47% occurring within 1 day, 35% from days 2-7, and 18% from days 8-30. Death from cardiogenic shock was the most common cause of death throughout this period: 83% of deaths in days 0-3, 88% of deaths in days 4-6, and 43% of deaths in days 8-30. Significant predictors of early death included older age (P < .0001), multi-vessel disease (P < .05), direct angioplasty failure (P < .05), reduced ejection fraction (P < .0001), and anterior myocardial infarction (P < .0005). Gender, prior myocardial infarction, and prior bypass surgery did not affect mortality. Cardiogenic shock is the most common cause of early death after direct angioplasty for myocardial infarction. Patients with one or more risk factors for early death may benefit from additional myocardial salvage or revascularization efforts in the early post-infarct period. Certain causes of death after direct angioplasty (cardiac, rupture, stroke) appear to be less common than data reported for lytic therapy for myocardial infarction.

DNA index and S phase fraction in uveal malignant melanomas.

To predict 5 year survival in patients with uveal malignant melanomas DNA indices were studied. Using 45 paraffin embedded uveal malignant melanomas, the DNA index and S phase fraction of each tumour were the predictor variables recorded. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, aneuploid tumours and tumours which had an S phase fraction greater than 4% were significant predictors of early death. In order to demonstrate a biological gradient between a larger DNA index and shorter survival time, linear regression and transformed linear regression models were used. However, no such gradient could be demonstrated. Although this study shows promise for the use of DNA studies in the prognosis of uveal malignant melanoma, the exact role of these techniques remains to be determined.