Significant Level Of Confidence Research Articles

Unsupervised machine learning for the classification of astrophysical X-ray sources

ABSTRACT The automatic classification of X-ray detections is a necessary step in extracting astrophysical information from compiled catalogues of astrophysical sources. Classification is useful for the study of individual objects, statistics for population studies, as well as for anomaly detection, that is, the identification of new unexplored phenomena, including transients and spectrally extreme sources. Despite the importance of this task, classification remains challenging in X-ray astronomy due to the lack of optical counterparts and representative training sets. We develop an alternative methodology that employs an unsupervised machine learning approach to provide probabilistic classes to Chandra Source Catalog sources with a limited number of labelled sources, and without ancillary information from optical and infrared catalogues. We provide a catalogue of probabilistic classes for 8756 sources, comprising a total of 14 507 detections, and demonstrate the success of the method at identifying emission from young stellar objects, as well as distinguishing between small- and large-scale compact accretors with a significant level of confidence. We investigate the consistency between the distribution of features among classified objects and well-established astrophysical hypotheses such as the unified active galactic nucleus model. This provides interpretability to the probabilistic classifier. Code and tables are available publicly through GitHub. We provide a web playground for readers to explore our final classification at https://umlcaxs-playground.streamlit.app.

Numerical Modelling of the Self‐Erecting Tower for Onshore Wind Turbines

AbstractMassive wind energy converters are becoming more popular in the market. However, such technologies are troublesome to implement onshore due to logistic issues and costly erection techniques. Hence, industry and research have focused on producing lighter and modular towers to overcome these limitations. The Self‐Erecting Tower (SeT) is made from modular staves that are assembled by an internal crane. This crane is supported by a helicoidal rail attached to the inner face of the staves, allowing it to move along the tower's height to help with erection, maintenance, and future disassembling of the structure. Finite element analyses of the tower and its parts have been performed with the primary objective of assessing the structural feasibility of this innovative concept. A parametric analysis based on the first natural frequency of the tower was performed to define the SeT gross geometry. Later, a specific combination of variables was analysed to evaluate the maximum stresses. A significant level of confidence was achieved through the numerical modelling, confirming that the SeT can support the design actions imposed by a 5 MW wind turbine for 160 m hub height. Lastly, an economic evaluation of the final design was conducted and compared with other traditional solutions.

DYNAMICS OF THE EXTERIOR CHARACTERISTICS OF FIRST-CALF HEIFERS DAIRY BREEDS

DYNAMICS OF THE EXTERIOR CHARACTERISTICS OF FIRST-CALF HEIFERS DAIRY BREEDS

Using the Delphi method to develop the social-ecological resilience indicators of organic rice production in Thailand

This paper illustrates the application of the Delphi method, which assists in the production of social-ecological resilience indicators, and which are suitable for building the resilience of organic rice production in the central portion of Northeastern Thailand. Forty-seven adept farmers were purposively selected as participants, and the Delphi method was utilized as a tool by which the participants could reveal their different opinions and ideas. They were surveyed in order to visualize an organic rice system called the ‘desirable system.’ Nevertheless, such a system must be built simultaneously with certain components, the attributes of which can enable the system to withstand all kinds of change that can take place across spatial and temporal scales. The resilience literature, which is related to agro-ecological systems, had been published online during the seven previous years, and was applied to formulate questions, which were specifically aimed at establishing components that were focused upon coping and adaptive strategies. It was discovered that the inclusion of a group discussion, which had taken place with two rounds of the Delphi method, had provided a valuable means for exchanging information and responding with feedback. Given that the processes had been entirely conducted through group discussions, the voices of a few participants were, however, lost. They were dominated by the innate power expressed by other members within the group, especially the leaders. Despite this, the Delphi method was able to achieve an adequate degree of consensus among participants and was able to lead in the direction of building resilience with a significant level of confidence, which was capable of overcoming the social-ecological complexities of organic rice production. This was evidenced by the discovery of 21 social-ecological resilience indicators, which had been constructed by the engagement. Moreover, the indicators had indeed been reliable. With the support of the consensus of the participants’ judgements, which were based on their actual contexts of organic rice production in the central portion of Northeastern Thailand, the indicators were able to be validated by statistical analyses, consisting of arithmetic means (x), standard deviations (sd), and interquartile ranges (R).

Covid-19 vs. BCG Universal Immunization: Statistical Significance in the Early Phase of the Pandemics

A possible correlation between the impact of Covid-19 and universal immunization program against tuberculosis with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine was suggested previously, based on apparent correlation between lower impact of the epidemics and a record of national BCG immunization program. In this work a time-adjusted dataset of Covid-19 statistical data by national and subnational health jurisdictions at the time point of six months after the local arrival of the epidemics was used to perform a statistical analysis of the significance of the correlation hypothesis between universal BCG immunization and a milder early phase Covid-19 scenario. With the data accumulated up to the point of the analysis, the significance of the correlation hypothesis was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively with the conclusion that it has achieved statistically significant level of confidence. The conclusions of this research can be used in development of epidemiological policy as well as the rationale to investigate the origin and mechanisms of a broad immunity protection that can be associated with an early-age exposure to BCG vaccine. Doi: 10.28991/SciMedJ-2021-03-SI-8 Full Text: PDF

Dynamically formed black hole binaries: In-cluster versus ejected mergers

AbstractThe growing number of black hole binary (BHB) mergers detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory have the potential to enable an unprecedented characterisation of the physical processes and astrophysical conditions that govern the formation of compact binaries. In this paper, we focus on investigating the dynamical formation of BHBs in dense star clusters through a state-of-the-art set of 58 direct N-body simulations with N$\leqslant200\,000$particles which include stellar evolution, gravitational braking, orbital decay through gravitational radiation, and galactic tidal interactions. The simulations encompass a range of initial conditions representing typical young globular clusters, including the presence of primordial binaries. The systems are simulated for$\sim 12$Gyr. The dataset yields 117 BHB gravitational wave (GW) events, with 97 binaries merging within their host cluster and 20 merging after having been ejected. Only 8% of all ejected BHBs merge within the age of the Universe. Systems in this merging subset tend to have smaller separations and larger eccentricities, as this combination of parameters results in greater emission of gravitational radiation. We confirm known trends from Monte Carlo simulations, such as the anti-correlation between the mass of the binary and age of the cluster. In addition, we highlight for the first time a difference at low values of the mass ratio distribution between in-cluster and ejected mergers. However, the results depend on assumptions on the strength of GW recoils, thus in-cluster mergers cannot be ruled out at a significant level of confidence. A more substantial catalogue of BHB mergers and a more extensive library of N-body simulations are needed to constrain the origin of the observed events.

Data Mining Techniques for the Prediction of Bohme Surface Abrasion Rates from Rock Properties

Abstract Abrasion refers to the wearing down of rock surfaces due to abrasive grains. Abrasion resistance refers to the ability of rocks to withstand wear. Abrasion resistance is used to determine the resistance of building materials produced for flooring, cladding, and pavements and to demonstrate suitability for higher movement areas. While it is, therefore, very necessary to determine the abrasion rate of building materials prior to construction, it is, however, highly demanding and time consuming to determine abrasion rates. Thus, the aim of this study is to use some rock properties to determine abrasion rates. The study samples, consisting of 32 different types of rocks (sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous) collected from different regions in Turkey, were subjected to some physical and mechanical tests, namely the following: unit volume weight (UVW), apparent porosity (AP), modulus of elasticity (E), uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), tensile strength (TS), Shore hardness (SH), and point load strength (PL) and Bohme abrasion tests. To ascertain the abrasion rate from some physical and mechanical properties of rocks, the results of these tests were analyzed using data mining (DM) techniques. The results showed that there are high correlation coefficients between abrasion rate and the aforementioned rock properties with the support vector machines (SVM) and random forests (RF) models obtained as R = 0.882 and 0.881, respectively. This work has shown that the rock Bohme abrasion rate can be predicted from some of its physical and mechanical properties with significant level of confidence.

Export Potential and Measures to Support Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

The article presents the results of the study and the comparative analysis of the development of SMEs in the EU and RF countries. The estimation of SMEs' entrepreneurial confidence in the sphere of industrial production is given. Existing incentive mechanisms for export-oriented SMEs in the EU are considered.It is determined that support for export-oriented SMEs in Russia is aimed at overcoming export barriers, increasing the activity and the competitiveness of the exporting enterprises.It has been established that the mechanism of financial support for export-oriented SMEs and the shift from direct export support to support export-oriented production, including the development of system of concessional loans for the development of export production, similar to the EU need to be changed.This allows producers to reasonably approach their financial capabilities and effectively build export planning. Priority is targeted support for specific industrial enterprises from among SMEs having experience of export and differing in a significant level of entrepreneurial confidence.

Specific training for improving the skill and speed in junior football players

Abstract Background. The purpose of the study was to realize the priorities in physical, technical and tactical training for junior football players. Moreover, preparing of the content was intended to optimize the use the most efficient methods and means for increasing the efficiency of speed and skill during the training and games. Objectives. Data were collected from 18 junior football players, with ages ranging from 14-15 years, members of the ACS Unirea (C) Tritenii de Jos team. The subjects were tested three times during the whole training stage, pre, middle and post-training examinations being performed. The three examinations consisted of 5 tests each: 50-meter sprint, standing long jump, 2000 meter running, maintaining the ball in the air and leading the ball through markers. Methods. Specific methods for developing the speed used in the study are based on repetitions (specific efforts at maximum or submaximal speed, under usual, relieved, severe conditions), on various efforts and intervals. Skill development methods took into account the complexity of coordinating action movements and the spatial, temporal, and motion force precision. For developing motor skills, the authors used the interval and circuit training. Results. All the participants attained higher levels of performance, both at the second and third examination, on each of the 5 tests. Data collected were analyzed using the One –Way ANOVA statistical procedure, which compares the results obtained by one single group of subjects. This procedure revealed, at a significant level of confidence, that the mean of the performance enhancement reached 50 percents along the one-year training stage. Conclusions. The research has shown that, by giving a more significant share of the best methods and means for developing the speed and skill in the physical training of junior footballers, the increase in the performance of these motor skills is significant.

WTO dispute settlement system and transparency of the process through the scope of similarities and differences with international trade arbitration

WTO dispute settlement system with all its specific characteristics represents a great achievement in the field of international trade. Throughout a decade long process of developing WTO dispute settlement system, an effective mechanism for resolving disputes has been made. This mechanism expresses its own peculiarities through the bodies that resolve disputes between states. The paper will show the evolution of WTO dispute settlement system and indicate the key trends that can be identified through increased transparency of the process - resulting in a significant level of confidence and trust in the institution - as well as certain aspects that detect similarities and differences in the dispute settlement process under the WTO and arbitration in the international trade arbitration.

Pengaruh Brand Image Rokok Dunhill Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Di Kota Pontianak

ssues raised in this study is about the effects of smoking Dunhill Brand Image Buying Decision Against In Pontianak. Forms of this study is deskriptif.Populasi in this study were all people who consume cigarettes Dunhill in Pontianak. The sample used in this study were 100 respondents by using a sampling technique in which the unknown population. Hasilregresi simple linear significant value of 0.197 is greater than 0.05 so it can be concluded that no significant regression coefficient and simple linear regression equation Y = 3.355 + 0,138X. The coefficient is positive that there is a positive influence between the brand image of Dunhill cigarettes with purchasing decisions in Pontianak. From the results of testing the feasibility of a model (Test F) the result is a simple linear regression model can not be used to predict the purchasingdecisions in Pontianak influenced by brand image of Dunhill cigarettes, as evidenced by the calculated F value is greater than the significant level of confidence 0.05, then the model simple linear regression can not be used to predict pembelian.Sedangkan decision to test the correlation (r) has the effect of very low, with the correlation of 0.130 and for the test of determination (R2) has the effect of 17%. Purchase decisions in Pontianak influenced by brand image of Dunhill cigarettes, while the rest influenced by other variables.

Інтеркультурність як чинник формування соціокультурного капіталу міста

The purpose of the study is to examine interkulturell as an urban phenomenon in the aspect of its impact on social capital of Melitopol. Intercultural component of social and cultural capital defined in such terms as: the positive perception of residents of their city as an intercultural, pride in your status, the presence of intercultural social communication different types of social trust in the national-cultural societies, relevant to the activities of the city government on policy interculturall. Research methods – questionnaire survey. The total sample size (n) is 2,400 respondents, the statistical error Δ±2,3%, confidence level P=0,95. The sample is representative one.In the city there is a specific resource identity, which is manifested in shared values, symbolic images, among which interkulturell takes an important place. Urban society has found a low level of trust between the citizens, аt the same time on the background of deficit of social trust citizens have demonstrated a significant level of confidence in the national-cultural societies of the city.In the city there is dense interactive communication with representatives of ethnic communities, and relations between ethnic groups are positive. The social communication between ethnic communities is a particular resource accumulation of social and cultural capital. The study showed that ethnic communities are quite integrated into the socio-cultural and public space of the city. It is shown that interkulturell is a significant resource accumulation of social and cultural capital which can be converted into political capital and consolidate urban community in the civil integrity.

Field study of response accuracy and decision confidence with regard to lineup composition and lineup presentation

Response accuracy with regard to lineup composition (present/absent target) and presentation (simultaneous/sequential), as well as decision confidence as a predictor and postdictor of response accuracy, was tested in a field experiment (N = 426). Overall response accuracy was 43%. It was not found significant main effects of lineup presentation or composition or a significant interaction between these variables in regard to response accuracy. By using both traditional methods of lineups’ efficiency comparison, and novel approach – ROC analysis, either procedure superiority was not revealed. Prospective confidence did not relate to response accuracy, but correct identifications were made with more retrospective confidence than were incorrect identifications. In simultaneously presented target absent lineups and sequentially presented target present lineups, correct identification resulted in a statistically significant higher level of retrospective confidence than did incorrect identifications. Participants were over-confident in their accuracy. The calibration curve, plotted for choosers, based on retrospective decision confidence was meaningful, but far from linear, while calibration curve based on prospective decision was flat. Thus the sequential lineup may not be superior to the simultaneous lineup and confidence may not be a very reliable indicator of accuracy in field setting, regardless of approach used for data analysis.

Measuring Latency in Virtual Environments

Latency of interactive computer systems is a product of the processing, transport and synchronisation delays inherent to the components that create them. In a virtual environment (VE) system, latency is known to be detrimental to a user's sense of immersion, physical performance and comfort level. Accurately measuring the latency of a VE system for study or optimisation, is not straightforward. A number of authors have developed techniques for characterising latency, which have become progressively more accessible and easier to use. In this paper, we characterise these techniques. We describe a simple mechanical simulator designed to simulate a VE with various amounts of latency that can be finely controlled (to within 3ms). We develop a new latency measurement technique called Automated Frame Counting to assist in assessing latency using high speed video (to within 1ms). We use the mechanical simulator to measure the accuracy of Steed's and Di Luca's measurement techniques, proposing improvements where they may be made. We use the methods to measure latency of a number of interactive systems that may be of interest to the VE engineer, with a significant level of confidence. All techniques were found to be highly capable however Steed's Method is both accurate and easy to use without requiring specialised hardware.

Fair Use Harbors

The doctrine of fair use was originally intended to facilitate those socially optimal uses of copyrighted material that would otherwise constitute infringement. Yet the application of the law has become so unpredictable that would-be fair-users can rarely rely on the doctrine with any significant level of confidence. Moreover, the doctrine provides no defense for those seeking to make fair uses of material protected by anti-circumvention measures. As a result, artists working in media both new and old are unable to derive from copyrighted works the full value to which the public is entitled. In this Essay, we propose a solution to the uncertainty and unpredictability that plague the doctrine: nonexclusive safe harbors that define minimum levels of copying as per se fair uses. These bright-line rules would provide the clarity needed to facilitate countless productive uses that are currently being chilled. Furthermore, by providing an ex ante test for identifying uses as fair, these safe harbors provide a framework for salvaging fair use in the digital age.

Assessing the Academic Behavioral Confidence of the Secondary School Students

Introduction: This paper elucidates the Academic Behavioral Confidence (ABC) of the higher secondary school students by using the parental concepts such as selfefficacy and social cognition psychological theories. Method: The academic self confidence of the students are being assessed by the ABC scale which portraits the variations in teaching preferences and learning behaviors of students. Samples of 106 male and female students of XII standard of a government school were undertaken for study. Result: The study reveals that a significant level (median= 64.50) of confidence prevails among these students unlike other research studies. More than half of the student’s (50%) ABC score was above the median score signifying their confidence level to be high. Conclusion: The secondary school student’s academic confidence reasons out their intrinsic and extrinsic motivation towards their future because they know that secondary education determine their life.

Accuracy of the cylinder approximation for susceptometric measurement of intravascular oxygen saturation

Susceptometry-based MR oximetry has previously been shown suitable for quantifying hemoglobin oxygen saturation in large vessels for studying vascular reactivity and quantification of global cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen utilization. A key assumption underlying this method is that large vessels can be modeled as long paramagnetic cylinders. However, bifurcations, tapering, noncircular cross-section, and curvature of these vessels produce substantial deviations from cylindrical geometry, which may lead to errors in hemoglobin oxygen saturation quantification. Here, the accuracy of the "long cylinder" approximation is evaluated via numerical computation of the induced magnetic field from 3D segmented renditions of three veins of interest (superior sagittal sinus, femoral and jugular vein). At a typical venous oxygen saturation of 65%, the absolute error in hemoglobin oxygen saturation estimated via a closed-form cylinder approximation was 2.6% hemoglobin oxygen saturation averaged over three locations in the three veins studied and did not exceed 5% for vessel tilt angles <30° at any one location. In conclusion, the simulation results provide a significant level of confidence for the validity of the cylinder approximation underlying MR susceptometry-based oximetry of large vessels.

Optimism and Portfolio Choice

This study develops innovative measures of financial optimism by defining optimism as the overestimation of the favourable outcome in an individual’s future financial situation. The paper finds that optimism has a positive influence on an individual’s preference for risky portfolios and a negative impact on her preference for risk-free portfolios when controlled on other demographical and wealth variables. Optimistic individuals borrow more unsecured debt and take on larger mortgages than non-optimistic individuals indicating that optimistic individuals have a higher risk preference for their portfolios. We use more than 660,000 observations from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1991 to 2007 in our analysis. We also find that optimists have significantly different demographic characteristics compared to pessimists or neutral respondents. Optimists are significantly younger, more likely to be male, have higher business ownership, borrow more personal debt and take on a larger mortgage than pessimists. They also have lower accumulated financial wealth and home ownership but have a higher average unemployment rate than people who are pessimistic or neutral towards their financial situation. We were able to obtain these findings across individuals in the BHPS with a statistically significant level of confidence. We verified the robustness of the effect of financial optimism by using alternative measures of optimism, repeating the regression analysis only with the individuals who are the head of households as indicated in the BHPS, and using different years of the BHPS between 1995 and 2005. The results from the robustness test support our main findings.

Informing as a Discipline: An Initial Proposal

Introduction In 1982, adopting Nadler's (1982) terminology of work systems in industrial engineering, Gackowski gave the following definition: "informing systems are a class of work systems whose basic output is information that affects recipients' actions" (1982, p. 108). In 1999, Eli Cohen laid down the foundations of informing science and defined it as "the field of inquiry that attempts to provide a client with information in a form, format, and schedule that maximizes its effectiveness" (p. 5). Since that time, a separate field of informing science has emerged. It was fostered by the efforts of Eli Cohen, the founder of the Informing Science Institute, who established a tradition of annual international conferences, scientific and professional journals, and other forms of publication not horded but shared immediately without charge on the Web. The informing science framework encompasses Informing Environment, Information Delivery System, and Task Completion System. Informing contributes to all realms of human endeavor. The 21st century is viewed an age of information. This paper examines: 1. Is informing is a separate field of inquiry and practical endeavors? 2. Is informing science a science? 3. Is it a separate field of scientific inquiry? 4. Is it a lasting quest or will it fade within a generation? 5. What does informing need to become a separate academic discipline? It seems that informing is a field of science, art, and practical endeavors aimed at increasing communications effectiveness. Information is recognized, at least by some, as the third essence that supplements matter and energy in viewing the universe; it describes its structural aspects represented by patterns. It is an intrinsic, thus always present and objectively observable, component of all physical systems that are ascribed to their organization or lack thereof (Stonier, 1997, p. 12). In its essence informing is spreading patterns in form among humans, robots, living entities, even inanimate matter (Gackowski, 2009). Thus, informing science is a transdisciplinary physical, life, and human science. As human science it aims at expanding one's control over reality by extension of knowledge, development, and operations within the praxiological triad: effectiveness, ethics, and/or efficiency (Gasparski, 1988). De-psychologization of information and informing facilitates articulation of their scientific foundations; however psychology should never be excluded. The term science is used here as a system of knowledge in fields of inquiry with a well-defined scope: clear distinction of replicable entities and observable phenomena, relationships among them, their taxonomy, paradigms, and theory. It entails both unbiased and purpose-focused observations, systematic experimentation in pursuit of general truth, and the operating laws. Anything that can be subject to replicability with results at a statistically significant level of confidence is part of scientific knowledge; beyond this we deal with hypotheses, speculations, etc. Some of the latter may belong to individual or commonly shared beliefs, which are part of human culture, not science. Informing will also be discussed from the perspective of taxonomies of academic disciplines presented by Favero (2003), Kuhn (1996), and Biglan (1973). Today, informing widely uses information technology (IT); nevertheless its use should always be subordinated to the purpose and circumstance of informing. IT is important, but not at the forefront, as it is in computing (Denning et al., 1989, p. 1) and computer-based management information systems (Ives, Hamilton, & Davis, 1980, p. 1), or evident in current MIS textbooks. Research at MIT (Huang, Lee, & Wang, 1999) reads, Many best-practice reports witness that information technology alone is not the driver for knowledge management in companies today. …

Primary school teachers’ ability to recognise resilience in their students

This study investigated teachers’ knowledge of, and capacity to identify resilience, in 92 primary school children in Far North Queensland. It was found that although teachers’ knowledge of resilience was apparently strong, and they reported a significant level of confidence in their ability to assist children in building resilience, their capacity to identify levels of resilience in their students was lacking. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.