Field study of response accuracy and decision confidence with regard to lineup composition and lineup presentation

Abstract

Response accuracy with regard to lineup composition (present/absent target) and presentation (simultaneous/sequential), as well as decision confidence as a predictor and postdictor of response accuracy, was tested in a field experiment (N = 426). Overall response accuracy was 43%. It was not found significant main effects of lineup presentation or composition or a significant interaction between these variables in regard to response accuracy. By using both traditional methods of lineups’ efficiency comparison, and novel approach – ROC analysis, either procedure superiority was not revealed. Prospective confidence did not relate to response accuracy, but correct identifications were made with more retrospective confidence than were incorrect identifications. In simultaneously presented target absent lineups and sequentially presented target present lineups, correct identification resulted in a statistically significant higher level of retrospective confidence than did incorrect identifications. Participants were over-confident in their accuracy. The calibration curve, plotted for choosers, based on retrospective decision confidence was meaningful, but far from linear, while calibration curve based on prospective decision was flat. Thus the sequential lineup may not be superior to the simultaneous lineup and confidence may not be a very reliable indicator of accuracy in field setting, regardless of approach used for data analysis.