Significant Changes In Precipitation Research Articles

Climate dynamics and the effect of topography on snow cover variation in the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra river basins

The river basins of the Indus-Ganges-Brahmaputra (IGB) are characterized by rapid population growth, increased water demand, and rapid snow/ice melting, all of which combine to make these catchments especially vulnerable to climate change. Here, we present a comprehensive dataset (2003−2020) for precipitation, temperature and snow cover area (SCA) to investigate the spatio-temporal variability of important climate factors in relation to elevation and across three major sub-basins of the IGB. Improved MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer) Terra and Aqua snow cover data are used to estimate regional snow cover, while Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data version 2.0 (CHIRPS-V2.0) is deployed for precipitation, and MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data are used to estimate temperature. The analysis reveals significant changes in precipitation, LST and snow cover throughout the IGB region together with a strong degree of spatial coherence between SCA and regional surface topography (R2 = 0.82).Maximum changes were observed in the Brahmaputra basin at mean annual precipitation (13.9 mm/year) and reduced SCA (155.4 km2/year) over the period studied. Similar trends are also evident, albeit with relatively lower absolute values in the other two basins, whereby the Indus basin evidences a significant reduction in annual SCA, averaging 82.2 km2/year with increased precipitation (3.12 mm/year) and LST. This investigation further highlights the relative influence of climate change factors and regional human activities in determining high-elevation changes in SCA. Most of the middle elevation regions of the Ganges experienced a significant reduction in SCA, with human impact contributing 82% of the observed variation, while climate factors are more prominent in the Indus and Brahmaputra basins. Understanding the dynamics of snow cover and its regional influencing factors is crucial to the more accurate evaluation of water resources and to defining appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies for the coming decades.

Assessing the Spatiotemporal Variations in the Hydrological Response of the Qin River Basin in Loess Plateau, China

In recent decades, the hydrological processes on the Loess Plateau have undergone significant changes due to the combined effects of climate change and human activities. This study investigates the Qin River basin, the core area of the Loess Plateau. Between 1971 and 2000, the hydrometeorology of the flood season in the Qin basin on the Loess Plateau in China changed abruptly in 1982 and 1992. This study uses distributed hydrologic modeling and statistical analysis to distinguish the spatial and temporal impacts of climate change and human activities. The fastest dynamic changes in land use occurred in grassland and construction land, accounting for 0.36% and −0.1%, respectively, from 1982 to 1991. From 1992 to 2000, it was 0.29% and 0.3%, respectively. The increase in basin area where the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index increased was 95%. However, except for significant changes in runoff from 1981 to 1992, there were no significant changes in precipitation, runoff, and temperature during other flood seasons. During the two studied variation periods, from 1982 to 1991 and from 1992 to 2000, the contribution rate of climate change to flood season runoff (CClimate) decreased from 83.26% to 74.47%, while the contribution rate of human activity disturbance to flood season runoff (Chuman) increased from 16.74% to 25.53%. In terms of spatial distribution, from 1982 to 1991, areas with a Chuman > 50% were primarily concentrated in the upper reaches of the basin, while from 1992–2000, these areas shifted to the lower reaches. This study offers valuable insights for water resource planning and soil conservation measures in the Loess Plateau and similar arid regions worldwide, aiming to ensure water resource safety and sustainability in response to climate change and human interference.

Inter‐Comparison of Precipitation Simulation and Future Projections Over China From an Ensemble of Multi‐GCM Driven RCM Simulations

AbstractAn analysis is presented of the precipitation bias and change signal in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) (RegCM4) projections driven by multiple general circulation models (GCMs) over China. RegCM4 is driven by five different GCMs for the 120‐year period 1979–2099 at 25 km grid spacing, under the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5. We find that the GCMs and RegCM4 reproduce the general spatial pattern of precipitation over China in all four seasons, with RegCM4 providing greater spatial detail, especially over areas with complex terrain. The spatial patterns of precipitation bias show common features between the GCMs and RegCM4, characterized by an underestimation in the wetter regions, and an overestimation in the drier ones. Systematic increases of precipitation are projected in northern China, most pronounced in the Northwest basins, by both the GCMs and RegCM4 in all seasons except summer, when more mixed results are found. In addition, weak correlations of the projected change patterns are found in summer between the GCMs and nested RegCM4, indicating the greater role played by the representation of local convection processes during this monsoon season. The projections across the RegCM4 experiments show higher consistency and lower spread compared to the GCM ensemble, again indicating that the nested model physics significantly modulates the change signal deriving from the GCM boundary forcing.

Storylines for Future Projections of Precipitation Over New Zealand in CMIP6 Models

AbstractLarge uncertainty exists in the sign of long‐term changes in regional scale mean precipitation across the current generation of global climate models. To explore the physical drivers of this uncertainty for New Zealand, here we adopt a storyline approach applying cluster analysis to spatial patterns of future projected seasonal mean precipitation change across CMIP6 models (n = 43). For the winter precipitation change signal, the models split roughly into two main groups: both groups have a very robust wet signal across the west coast of the South Island but differ notably in terms of the sign of precipitation change across the north of the North Island. These far north winter precipitation differences appear related to how far the Hadley cell edge and regional eddy‐driven jet shift across the models relative to their historical positions. In contrast, for summer, most models have a markedly weaker and spatially non‐uniform response, where internal variability often plays a large role. However, a small group of models predict a robust wet signal across most of the country in summer. This “wet model” group is characterized by a regional La Niña‐like increase in high pressure shifted further to the south‐east of New Zealand, associated with more frequent north‐easterly flow over the country and accompanied by significant warming of local sea surface temperatures. This regional circulation response appears related to changes in stationary Rossby wave paths as opposed to changes in La Niña occurrence frequency itself.

IRSL and post-IR IRSL dating of multi-grains, single grains, and cobble surfaces to constrain fluvial responses to climate changes during the last glacial period in the Tokachi Plain, northern Japan

Accurate chronologies of fluvial terraces are necessary to understand fluvial responses to climate and sea-level changes and uplift. Although feldspar post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (post-IR IRSL, or pIRIR) dating has been used to establish chronologies for Pleistocene fluvial terraces, the signals can be partially bleached in short, high-gradient river systems typical of Japanese rivers, resulting in overestimated ages. This study investigated aggradational fluvial terraces formed on the Tokachi Plain, northern Japan, during the last glacial period, and true depositional ages of the deposits were estimated by comparing multi-grain IRSL50/150, pIRIR50/150, and pIRIR50/225 ages, with single-grain pIRIR50/225 ages. IRSL50/225 and pIRIR50/225 ages of granite cobbles were also obtained and compared with the ages of multi-grains to evaluate the reliability of cobble ages. Fading-corrected IRSL 50/150 ages of multi-grains were consistent with pIRIR50/150 ages, indicating that the fading correction of IRSL50/150 signal was successful. Although equivalent dose distributions of single grains suggest that the pIRIR50/225 signal was completely bleached at deposition, pIRIR50/225 ages were slightly older than fading-corrected IRSL 50/150 and pIRIR50/150 ages possibly because of small residual doses. Fading-corrected IRSL50/225 and fading-corrected pIRIR50/225 ages of granite cobbles were consistent with the fading-corrected IRSL50/150 and pIRIR50/150 ages of multi-grains. However, comparison of cobble ages with climate records seems difficult due to their large errors. The fading-corrected IRSL50/150 and pIRIR50/150 ages of multi-grains indicate that fluvial aggradation occurred at 70–60 ka, followed by incision. Changes in the strength of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation are sufficient to explain fluvial evolution in the Tokachi Plain. Although some previous studies have argued that the ages of fluvial terraces might not be simply correlated to climate changes because of complex fluvial responses, significant changes in precipitation in the study area might have dominated the evolution of the entire fluvial system. Comparison with other fluvial systems in Japan suggests that slight differences in the responses of different fluvial systems to climate changes might be due to the spatial variability of those changes.

Changes in the surface and atmospheric water budget due to projected Amazon deforestation: Lessons from a fully coupled model simulation

The Amazon forest has a complex interaction with climate at different spatial and temporal scales. This means that alterations in land use could modify the regional water cycle, including the surface and atmospheric water budget. However, little is known about how these changes occur seasonally and in a spatially distributed manner in the most vulnerable regions, such as the southern Amazon. In this study, the local to regional effects of future Amazon deforestation on the surface and atmospheric water budget components are investigated by twin numerical experiments using the Regional Earth System Model of the ‘Institute Pierre Simone Laplace’ (RegIPSL) for 19 yr (2001–2019). The results show that significant changes in precipitation and actual evapotranspiration in the southern Amazon (south of 5°S) are associated with surrounding areas with a deforested ratio higher than 40%. During the onset of the wet season (September-November) the largest changes in convective processes are manifested by opposite atmospheric dynamic in adjacent regions (dipole), associated with. This dynamic is associated with wind orientation and the different sizes of the straight corridors of continuous deforestation (pathways). The dipole manifests itself as a suppression of convection in the upwind sector, while convection increases in the downwind sector of the deforestation pathway. For medium-sized deforestation pathways (∼350 km) convection changes are related to dynamic processes (decrease in surface roughness). In large-sized pathways (∼500 km) the mechanisms causing convective changes are combined, dynamic and thermal (increase in surface temperature). In deforested regions there is an average increase of terrestrial water storage dynamics and runoff ∼10 times higher than in non-deforested regions. Furthermore, the atmosphere becomes ∼8 times drier in deforested regions than in non-deforested regions. Our findings indicate a new perspective regarding a comprehensive modeling approach to understand potential changes in the surface and atmospheric water cycle in different regions of Amazonia and in different seasons due to future deforestation and thus provide new insights into their spatial and temporal variability at sub-regional scales.

The impact of lateral boundary forcing in the CORDEX-Africa ensemble over southern Africa

Abstract. The region of southern Africa (SAF) is among the most exposed climate change hotspots and is projected to experience severe impacts across multiple economical and societal sectors. For this reason, producing reliable projections of the expected impacts of climate change is key for local communities. In this work we use an ensemble of 19 regional climate model (RCM) simulations performed in the context of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) – Africa and a set of 10 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) that were used as the driving GCMs in the RCM simulations. We are concerned about the degree to which RCM simulations are influenced by their driving GCMs, with regards to monthly precipitation climatologies, precipitation biases and precipitation change signal, according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the end of the 21st century. We investigate the degree to which RCMs and GCMs are able to reproduce specific climatic features over SAF and over three sub-regions, namely the greater Angola region, the greater Mozambique region, and the greater South Africa region. We identify that during the beginning of the rainy season, when regional processes are largely dependent on the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere, the impact of the driving GCMs on the RCMs is smaller compared to the core of the rainy season, when precipitation is mainly controlled by the large-scale circulation. In addition, we show that RCMs are able to counteract the bias received by their driving GCMs; hence, we claim that the cascade of uncertainty over SAF is not additive, but indeed the RCMs do provide improved precipitation climatologies. The fact that certain bias patterns during the historical period (1985–2005) identified in GCMs are resolved in RCMs provides evidence that RCMs are reliable tools for climate change impact studies over SAF.

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security in Somalia

This study uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods to explore the impact of climate change on food security in Somalia. Data were collected through questionnaires and interviews with a sample size of 80, consisting of farmers, agricultural teachers, students, and environmental workers in the surrounding area. The findings show significant changes in precipitation and temperature leading to land degradation and other environmental challenges, ultimately leading to water shortages and degradation of crops and livestock. Famine is the cause of food insecurity and subsequent flooding in Somalia. Based on the findings, policy interventions are recommended to address food shortages in the country. These interventions should focus on promoting sustainable research and development of food and vegetable crops, facilitating the adaptation and use of appropriate agricultural technologies and being effective, and helping farmers adapt to changing environments. This study highlights the importance of sustainable crop production as a way to reduce high food insecurity in Somalia. In addition, these measures can help reduce the risk of significant developments and communities' exposure to climate risks. The research supports ongoing efforts to maintain a healthier and more stable environment in the country by revealing the specific impacts of climate change on food security in Somalia and providing actionable recommendations. Implementation of this policy is essential to addressing the challenges posed by climate change and ensuring food security for the Somali people in the future.

Impact of watershed habitat quality based on land use: a case study of taking Ciyao River Basin

Land use pattern is one of the most important factors affecting the quality of habitats, which is taken as the research objective in this study. Based on the land use data of Ciyao river basin from 1985 to 2020, transfer matrix analysis, superposition analysis, and zoning statistics were carried out by ArcGIS. The impact of main threat sources (cultivated land, urban land, and rural residential land) on water quality was calculated using the investment model. The habitat changes and the impact of the habitat quality of the basin on the hydrological and water quality were analyzed. The findings demonstrated that the land-type conversion in Ciyao River Basin from 1985 to 2020 is mainly manifested in the conversion from cultivated land to construction land (94.49 km2), and from grassland to cultivated land (21.59 km2) and forest land (27.15 km2). The habitat quality of the Ciyao River Basin decreased gradually from North to South. The medium and high habitat quality areas are mainly concentrated in the headwater area of the river. Due to the change in land type, the habitat quality in the headwater area of the river significantly improved from 2005 to 2020, while the habitat quality in the confluence area of the Wuliang section significantly declined from 1995 to 2015. Due to the improvements of habitat quality in the source area of the river and water conservation capacity, the total amount of water resources and annual runoff depth of Ciyao River significantly increased from 2005 to 2019 without significant changes in precipitation. The water quality of the Ciyao River has improved due to development of environmental pollution control and the improvement of watershed habitat in 2016–2020.

Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations

In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the form of abrupt and non-abrupt changes, in the global scale precipitation at the 0.05 significance level. Most of the abrupt changes were observed near the Equator in the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent, relative to the rest of the globe. Most detected breakpoints occurred during the 1998–1999 and 2009–2011 periods on the global scale. The average precipitation change for the detected breakpoint was ±100 mm, with some regions reaching ±3000 mm. For instance, most portions of northern Africa and Asia experienced major changes of approximately +100 mm. In contrast, most of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean experienced changes of −100 mm during the studied period. Our findings indicated that the larger areas of Africa (23.9%), Asia (22.9%), and Australia (15.4%) experienced significant precipitation breakpoints compared to North America (11.6%), South America (9.3%), Europe (8.3%), and Oceania (9.6%). Furthermore, we found that the majority of detected significant breakpoints occurred in the arid (31.6%) and polar (24.1%) climate zones, while the least significant breakpoints were found for snow-covered (11.5%), equatorial (7.5%), and warm temperate (7.7%) climate zones. Positive breakpoints’ temporal coverage in the arid (54.0%) and equatorial (51.9%) climates were more than those in other climates zones. Here, the findings indicated that large areas of Africa and Asia experienced significant changes in precipitation (−250 to +250 mm). Compared to the average state (trend during a specific period), the greatest changes in precipitation were more abrupt and unpredictable, which might impose a severe threat to the ecology, environment, and natural resources.

Downscaled Climate Change Projections in Urban Centers of Southwest Ethiopia Using CORDEX Africa Simulations

Projections of future climate change trends in four urban centers of southwest Ethiopia were examined under a high Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario for near- (2030), mid- (2050), and long-term (2080) periods based on high-resolution (0.220) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for Africa data. The multi-model ensemble projects annual maximum and minimum temperatures increasing by 0.047 °C per year (R2 > 0.3) and 0.038 °C per year (R2 > 0.7), respectively, with the rates increased by a factor of 10 for decadal projections between the 2030s and 2080s. The monthly maximum temperature increase is projected to be 1.41 °C and 2.82 °C by 2050 and 2080, respectively. In contrast, the monthly minimum temperature increase is projected to reach +3.2 °C in 2080. The overall seasonal multi-model ensemble average shows an increment in maximum temperature by +1.1 °C and +1.9 °C in 2050 and 2080, with the highest change in the winter, followed by spring, summer, and autumn. Similarly, the future minimum temperature is projected to increase across all seasons by 2080, with increases ranging from 0.4 °C (2030s) to 3.2 °C (2080s). All models consistently project increasing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures, while the majority of the models projected declining future precipitation compared to the base period of 1971–2005. A two-tailed T-test (alpha = 0.05) shows a significant change in future temperature patterns, but no significant changes in precipitation were identified. Changes in daily temperature extremes were found in spring, summer, and autumn, with the largest increases in extreme heat in winter. Therefore, our results support proactive urban planning that considers suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies against increasing air temperatures in urban centers in southwest Ethiopia. Future work will examine the likely changes in temperature and precipitation extremes.

Lowstand lake conditions in NW Anatolia during the Little Ice Age: Multi-proxy evidence from Lake Sünnet

Despite global and local evidence of significant precipitation changes since the Little Ice Age (LIA), their impact upon lake hydrology and surrounding vegetation has yet to be investigated in NW Anatolia. Moreover, the LIA, as a trigger to the social/political recession of the Ottoman Empire in the 17th century is expected to have these impacts. To address this important gap, we studied three cores from Lake Sünnet, a landslide-dammed high altitude lake with extreme sedimentation rates, by using a wide range of proxies including lithology, stable isotopes of O and C, diatoms, pollen, and ostracods. The LIA timespan of AD 1510–1750 is represented by poorly preserved diatom flora and scarce ostracod fauna that collectively suggest very shallow aquatic conditions. The period AD 1640–1710 within the LIA is standing out with higher Abies and total herb pollen percentages that denotes considerably cooler conditions. During and soon after this cold and dry period precisely overlapping the Maunder Minimum, the currently deep Lake Sülüklü in close vicinity was a dry lowland where tall trees were growing. Progressive warming/lake level rise in Lake Sünnet after the AD 1750s is suggested based on a continuous diatom record with increasing planktonic share, increase in diverse and warm demanding arboreal cover, and a positive shift in δ18O of the lake muds. Following the relatively dry/cold period of AD 1800–1850 (Dalton Minimum) when the lake level was stationary and Artemisia cover became the most expanded of the whole record, a relatively warmer climate has dominated the area until the end of the 20th century.

Past 200 kyr hydroclimate variability in the western Mediterranean and its connection to the African Humid Periods

The Iberian Peninsula is located at the intersection between the subtropical and temperate climate zones and the paleoclimate records from this region are key to elucidate the varying humidity and changing dominance of atmospheric circulation patterns in the Mediterranean-North African region in the past. Here we present a quantitative hydroclimate reconstruction for the last ca. 200 kyr from southern Iberian Peninsula based on pollen data from the Padul lake sediment record. We use the newly developed Scale-normalized Significant Zero crossing (SnSiZer) method to detect not only the statistically significant precipitation changes but also to estimate the relative magnitude of these oscillations in our reconstruction. We identify six statistically significant main humid phases, termed West Mediterranean Humid Periods (WMHP 1–6). These humid periods correlate with other West/Central Mediterranean paleohydrological records, suggesting that similar climatic factors affected different areas of the Mediterranean. In addition, the WMPHs are roughly coeval with the African Humid Periods (AHPs) during high seasonality, suggesting the same North Atlantic ocean-atmospheric dynamics and orbital forcing as main drivers of both areas. In contrast, during low seasonality periods, the West Mediterranean still appears to be affected by the westerlies and the local Mediterranean rainfall systems with moderate-to-high precipitation, whereas West Africa was characterized by droughts.

Diverse chronic responses of vegetation aboveground net primary productivity to climatic changes on Three-River Headwaters region

The ecological responses of vegetation to climatic variables along a spatial gradient can be used as guidelines for chronic ecosystem response predictions under global climate change. The chronic responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to climatic factors on the Three-river Headwaters (TRH) region were assessed for major vegetation types at the herbage developmental stages using the geographical detectors model, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index from remote sensing images, and precipitation and air temperature datasets from 2000 to 2019. The results indicated that precipitation was the dominant driver for alpine meadows and steppes, while the impact of temperature on alpine steppes was more evident than that in alpine meadows, and alpine shrubs were more responsive to warming changes. This was possibly because shallower root systems and larger plant leaf area promote the responses of ANPP to precipitation for alpine meadows and steppes, and dormant buds higher from the ground facilitate the impacts of temperature for alpine shrubs. Grasslands also demonstrated differentiated responses to climatic factors at different developmental stages. Precipitation during the previous withering (September–October), pre-growing season (March–April), and vegetative growth (May–June) stages were more influential for ANPP variations. In contrast, ANPP during the reproductive period from July to August exhibited a weaker response to climatic controls. This was possibly attributed to the bud bank replenishment in fall and spring, the largest biomass growth rates in vegetative growth stage, and the non-structural carbohydrates transferred from roots in reproductive stage for perennial herbaceous plants. An elevated temperature, combined with no significant change in precipitation on the TRH may lead to a decrease in ANPP in alpine meadows but alpine shrub expansion, resulting in a reduced supply of palatable forage sources and bringing challenges to grassland management.

Analysis of Water Yield Changes from 1981 to 2018 Using an Improved Mann-Kendall Test

Water yield (WY) refers to the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET), which is vital for available terrestrial water. Climate change has led to significant changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration on a global scale, which will affect the global WY. Nevertheless, how terrestrial WY has changed during the past few decades and which factors dominated the WY changes are not fully understood. In this study, based on climate reanalysis and remote sensing data, the spatial and temporal patterns of terrestrial WY were revisited from 1981 to 2018 globally using an improved Mann-Kendall trend test method with a permutation test. The response patterns of WY to precipitation and ET are also investigated. The results show that the global multi-year mean WY is 297.4 mm/a. Based on the traditional Mann-Kendall trend test, terrestrial WY showed a significant (p < 0.05) increase of 5.72% of the total valid grid cells, while it showed a significant decrease of 7.68% of those. After correction using the calibration method, the significantly increasing and decreasing areas are reduced by 10.52% and 10.58% of them, respectively. After the correction, the confirmed increase and decrease in WY are mainly located in Africa, eastern North America and Siberia, and parts of Asia and Oceania, respectively. The dominant factor for increasing WY is precipitation, while that for decreasing WY was the combined effect of precipitation and evapotranspiration. The achievements of this study are beneficial for improving the understanding of WY in response to hydrological variables in the context of climate change.

An observational analysis of precipitation and deforestation age in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

Rainfall in the Amazon is influenced by atmospheric circulation dynamics on multiple spatiotemporal scales. Anthropogenic influences such as deforestation, land-use changes, and global climate change are also critical factors in determining rainfall in South America. Modeling studies have projected a drier climate with the ongoing deforestation in the Amazon, but observational evaluation of the variability of rainfall and deforestation patterns has been limited. This study analyzes spatiotemporal trends in rainfall between 1981 and 2020 and relationships with deforestation age in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). An improved rainfall dataset is derived by calibrating the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data with observations from a rain gauge network in the BLA. Trend analysis is employed to identify significant changes in precipitation over the BLA. Satellite-based land cover data Mapbiomas and ET datasets are used to evaluate similar trends. While large spatial variability is observed, the results show coherent relationships between negative dry-season rainfall trends and old-age deforested areas. Deforestation aged up to a decade enhanced rainfall and older deforested regions have reduced rainfall during the dry season. These results suggest substantial changes in the hydroclimate of the BLA and increased vulnerability to future land cover change.

Observational Characteristics of Dual-Polarization Radar for Heavy Rainfall Events in Capital Area

In this study, the observational characteristics of dual-polarization radar for studying the heavy rainfall in the capital area were evaluated. To this end, three rainfall events that had caused significant flood damage due to the heavy rainfall from June to August 2020 were selected. The application of dual-polarization radar data revealed a significant change in precipitation during the analysis of observation characteristics of the affected capital area’s heavy rainfall. Moreover, the physical characteristics of reflectivity, differential reflectivity, specific differential phase, and copolar-correlation coefficient and their temporal dynamics in radar rainfall were compared to rain gauge rainfall. The radar reflectivity has been identified at the frequency of ≥ 40 dBZ due to the effects of heavy rainfall in the capital area, while the differential reflectivity has confirmed that the particle size was larger. The specific differential phase seemingly exhibited the most similar distribution to rain gauge rainfall, while exhibiting local characteristics of heavy rainfall in the capital area, according to the differential reflectivity result. The copolar-correlation coefficient confirmed the consistent observational performance of the dual-polarization radar for evaluation of heavy rainfall. Overall, the radar rainfall demonstrated good performance in simulating the peak time, and CSU-HIDRO estimated the rainfall with up to 32.4% more accuracy than JPOLE.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Precipitation and Maximum Flows in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru

Global projections of climate change indicate negative impacts on hydrological systems, with significant changes in precipitation and temperature in many parts of the world. As a result, floods and droughts are expected. This article discusses the potential effects of climate change and variability on the maximum precipitation, temperature, and hydrological regime in Devil’s Creek, Tacna, Peru. The outputs of precipitation and daily temperature of fifteen regional climate models were used for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The methodology used includes the bias correction and downscaling of meteorological variables using the quintiles mapping technique, hydrological modeling, the evaluation of two emission scenarios, and its effect on the maximum flows of the stream. The results of the multi-model ensemble show that the maximum annual precipitation will probably increase by more than 30% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 period relative to the 1981–2005 period. Likewise, as expected, the maximum flows could increase by 220% and 154% for the RCP4.5 scenarios for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, and 234% and 484% for the RCP8.5 scenarios and for the 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 terms, respectively, concerning the recorded historical value, increasing the probability of flood events and damage in populations located downstream.

Recent Climate Change in the Lake Kyoga Basin, Uganda: An Analysis Using Short-Term and Long-Term Data with Standardized Precipitation and Anomaly Indexes

Climate change (CC) is now a global challenge due to uncertainties on the drivers and the multifaceted nature of its impacts. It impacts many sectors such as agriculture, water supply, and global economies through temperature and precipitation, affecting many livelihoods. Although there are global, regional, and national studies on CC, their application to determine local CC occurence mitigation and adaptation measures is not ideal. Therefore, this study aimed to determine climate change trends in Lake Kyoga Basin using standardized precipitation and anomaly indexes. Short-term (39 years, 1981–2020) and long-term (59 years, 1961–2020) monthly data from eight strategic meteorological stations were acquired from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority and supplemented with satellite and model reanalysis climate datasets. Change in precipitation was determined by SPI-6, while SAI determined change in temperature. The Mann–Kendall test was used to determine the trend significance. Whereas two (Serere and Lira) long-term data stations showed significant changes in precipitation, all the short-term data stations showed a significant increasing trend. Decadal relative rainfall anomaly increased from 85.6–105 in 1981–1990 to 92.0–120.9 in 2011–2020, while mean temperature anomaly increased from 0.2–0.6 °C to 1.0–1.6 °C in the same period. The frequency of severe wet weather events was more than for dry weather events in many stations, indicating an increase in precipitation. Maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures increased, with resultant warmer nights. The findings showed that the Lake Kyoga basin is experiencing climate change, with both temperature and rainfall increasing spatially and temporarily. Climate change affects agriculture, which is the main economic activity, and causes the destruction of infrastructure from floods, landslides, and mudslides. The results of this study are helpful in pointing out climate change-affected areas, and hence for designing mitigation and adaption strategies for local communities by policy and decision-makers from relevant stakeholders.

Changes in floodplain hydrology following serial damming of the Tocantins River in the eastern Amazon

Riparian forests are ecotones that link aquatic and terrestrial habitats, providing ecosystem services including sediment control and nutrient regulation. Riparian forest function is intimately linked to river hydrology and floodplain dynamics, which can be severely altered by dams. The Tocantins River in the eastern Amazon has six mega-dams along its course. To understand the large-scale and cumulative impacts of multiple dams on the Tocantins floodplain, we quantified landscape-scale changes in floodplain extent, hydroperiod, and flood timing on a 145-km stretch of the river downstream of five dams. We used water level data from 1985 to 2019 to compare daily floodplain inundation dynamics before and after damming. We also developed models to examine the impacts of climate and land use change on hydrology of the Tocantins River. After installation of the first dam in 1998, an average of 82.3 km2 (63%) of the floodplain no longer flooded, overall average hydroperiod decreased by 15 days (11%), and flooding started an average of five days earlier. After all five dams were installed, 72% of the average pre-dam flooded area no longer flooded, average hydroperiod had decreased by 35%, and average inundation onset occurred 12 days later. These changes in floodplain hydrology appeared to be driven primarily by dam operations as we found no significant changes in precipitation over the study period. Increasing loss of natural vegetation in the watershed may play a role in changed hydrology but cannot explain the abrupt loss of floodplain extent after the first dam was installed. This is one of few studies to quantify dam-induced floodplain alteration at a landscape scale and to investigate impacts of multiple dams on a landscape. Our results indicate that the Tocantins River floodplain is undergoing drastic hydrologic alteration. The impacts of multiple dams are cumulative and non-linear, especially for hydroperiod and flood timing.