Significant Changes In Land Use/land Cover Research Articles

Ecological risk assessment and response prediction caused by LUCC in the central Yunnan Province

With the acceleration of urbanization, unreasonable land use poses a serious threat to ecological security. However, there is still some space for improvement in the existing assessment of ecological risks (ERs) caused by land use/land cover change (LUCC). Therefore, this study takes the central Yunnan Province (CYP) as an example, and uses the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to simulate the land use/land cover (LULC) in different scenarios in the future, calculate the ecosystem services (ESs) from 2000 to 2020 and the next 20 years, as well as ERs of various types of ESs caused by LUCC. In addition, the Pearson correlation coefficient and geographically weighted regression (GWR) are used to analyze the trade-off and synergy relationships between various ecological risks, and the geographic detector method (GDM) is used to analyze their driving factors. The research results indicate that: (1) there have been significant changes in LULC in the CYP in the past 20 years. (2) There was significant spatial heterogeneity among various types of ESs in the CYP. (3) In the past 20 years, the distribution range of ERs has been relatively large, with significant spatial differences. (4) The ERs caused by LUCC in the next 20 years generally show a decreasing trend, and the ecological high-risk areas are mainly concentrated on construction land. (5) The ERs associated with ecosystem service types are mainly synergistic. ER is influenced by a combination of natural factors, socio-economic factors, and distance factors, with some factors having strong interactions. In short, the future ERs of CYP have decreased, and the ERs corresponding to various ecosystem services (ESs) interact with each other, causing a ripple effect. Finally, this study proposes policy recommendations to alleviate ERs in the CYP.

Spatiotemporal Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Impact on Urban Thermal Environments: Analyzing Cool Island Intensity Variations

This study pioneers the comprehensive evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution of land use/land cover (LULC) in Hangzhou city, introducing the novel water body shape index (WBSI) to analyze its seasonal impacts on the urban thermal environment and urban cool island (UCI) effects, uncovering distinct patterns of thermal regulation. It particularly investigates how distance gradients and the water body shape index (WBSI) influence land surface temperature (LST) in the urban core. The region’s climate, featuring hot summers and cold winters, highlights significant seasonal LST variations. Addressing a gap in existing UCI research, the analysis extends beyond the typical large-scale planning focus to include small-scale, high-resolution aspects. Employing remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analysis techniques, this study analyzes the seasonal dynamics in Hangzhou’s central urban area. High-resolution LST data, obtained through single-channel inversion and resolution enhancement algorithms, are crucial to this analysis. This study employs the maximum likelihood classification method to analyze land use and land cover changes from 1990 to 2020. This analysis reveals potential drivers of urban thermal environment changes, such as the expansion of residential and commercial areas and the reduction in green spaces. Different regions in LST data are delineated to assess the cool island effect, and the complexity of water body boundaries is quantified using the water body shape index. Spatial and temporal patterns of LST changes are investigated using multivariate regression and time-series analysis models. We identified significant changes in LULC over the past 30 years in Hangzhou, closely correlating with a continuous rise in LST. This observation underscores a clear finding: the strategic importance of blue–green infrastructure in mitigating urban heat, a novel insight that extends the current understanding of urban thermal dynamics. A clear and novel finding of this study is that the intensity of the cool island effect from large water bodies not only diminishes with distance but is intricately influenced by the complexity of their shapes, as quantified by the WBSI, whereas the complexity of their boundaries enhances this effect. Additionally, the regulatory role of the cool island effect is observed to vary seasonally, being most pronounced in summer and less so in autumn and winter, thereby demonstrating a positive impact. In conclusion, our findings innovatively highlight how the specific shapes of water bodies, quantified through the water body shape index (WBSI), emerge as critical, yet previously underappreciated, drivers in modulating the urban thermal environment. This underscores a new avenue for urban planning, advocating for the strategic design of water bodies within urban landscapes. It also finds that spatial factors and seasonal variations significantly affect the intensity of the cool island effect. These findings offer valuable evidence for urban planning and climate change adaptation, emphasizing balancing natural elements with the built environment in urban design.

Establishing the relationship between land use land cover, normalized difference vegetation index and land surface temperature: A case of Lower Son River Basin, India

The study explores the intricate interplay between land use land cover (LULC), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land surface temperature (LST) within the Lower Son River Basin in India from 1991 to 2020. The region’s ecological balance has been increasingly strained due to rapid urbanization and changing land use patterns. Through a combination of Landsat TM & OLI/TIRS satellite imageries and geospatial analysis techniques, this study unveils the intricate connection between land use and land cover changes, vegetation, and land surface temperature variations. The study area is classified into three altitudinal zones (Zone I: 39–300 m, Zone II: 301–600 m and Zone III: 601–1,247 m) to examine the changes in depth. The area has seen significant changes in LULC, vegetation and LST in all the three altitudinal zones. The findings hold significant implications for sustainable land management and environmental conservation strategies in the Lower Son River Basin. As per the result, 103,438 ha of vegetation was converted into agriculture land and 82,572 ha of agricultural land was transformed into settlements from 1991 to 2020. This trend shows human pressure on the land resource in the study area. Minor increase in water body is seen which is attributed to commissioning of Bansagar dam. Zone I has seen highest settlement growth while Zone III experienced severe deforestation of around 15%. Zone II and III needs attention for holistic sustenance. Analysis of LST shows that it has increased by 0.82 °C from 1991 to 2020 which is a red flag. The study underscores the critical importance of balanced land use practices to preserve ecological integrity and mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization and climate change.

Modeling of land use/land cover dynamics using artificial neural network and cellular automata Markov chain algorithms in Goang watershed, Ethiopia

Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) change has inhibited sustainable development for the last millennia by affecting climate, biological cycles, and ecosystem services and functions. In this regard, understanding the historical and future patterns of LULC change plays a crucial role in implementing effective natural resource management. This study aimed to model and characterize the spatiotemporal trajectories of landscape change between the 1984 and 2060 periods. The satellite image spectral information was segmented into seven LULC classes using a hybrid approach of image spectral recognition. The supervised classification technique of Support Vector Machine (SVM) was used to classify the satellite images, whilst the Land Change Modeler (LCM) Module in TerrSet software was used to assess the historical trend and future simulation of LULC dynamics. To predict future landscape changes, transition potential maps were generated using a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network algorithm. The findings of the study demonstrated that the Goang Watershed has experienced significant LULC change since 1984. During the 1984–2001, 2001–2022, and 1984–2022 periods, farmland showed a dramatic increasing trend with 7.5 km2/yr−1, 110.3 km2/yr−1, and 64.3 km2/yr−1, respectively. A similar trend was also observed in built-up areas with 0.5 km2/yr−1, 3.2 km2/yr−1, and 2 km2/yr−1. The expansion of farmland and built-up area was at the expense of forest, shrubland, and grasslands. With a business-as-usual scenario, the extent of farmland will continue to increase between 2022 and 2060 while rapid reduction is expected by forest, shrubland, and grasslands. The alarming rate of farmland and built-up area expansion will put significant pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the area. As a result, eco-friendly conservation approaches should be implemented as soon as possible to maintain ecosystem health and encourage sustainable development.

Assessing the status and spatial-temporal dynamics of the Bamenda Mountains (BM), North West region of Cameroon.

Change in land use and land cover (LULC) contributes in worsening ecological issues. Studying the trends of change in land use is highly significant to deal with global climate change and sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of LULC of the Bamenda Mountains (BM) in the North West region of Cameroon, over a period of 34 years (1988-2022) and predict 34 years (2022-2056) future land use scenario of this site using time series satellite imagery (MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI-TIRS) and ancillary data and to comprehend the driving forces of land use/land cover change (LULCC). The trends of LULCC were quantified; LULC maps were derived by classifying time series satellite images. Six LULC categories were identified during the study period (1988-2022). The research revealed a significant LULCC of the BM which can be justified by increase in the human population observed in the study area and the desire to extend agricultural lands to sustain the growing population. Overall, cultivated area 5684 ha (10.47%), 10680 ha (19.57 %), and 15163 ha (27.78%) and built-up area 449 ha (0.83%), 996 ha (1.83%), and 3242 ha (5.94%) for the study years 1988, 2003, and 2022, respectively, were all on the increase throughout the study period at the expense of other land cover types. The predicted figures of 2056 showed a continuous reduction of montane forest and savanna: 2401.92 ha (4.40%) and 25,862.67 ha (47.39%), respectively. Bare area is expected to drop in 2056 (2905.92 ha (5.32%)). The above decrease, when compared to 2022 figures, represents a loss of 3.97%, 4.53%, and 0.57%, respectively. The losses observed are gained by built-up and cultivated land (5.72% and 3.39%, respectively), covering surfaces areas of 6364.89 ha (11.66%) and 17,008.56 ha (31.17%), respectively. The above findings suggest that population growth is likely the major menace to the natural environment. It is thus safe to say that substantial LULCC was observed throughout the study period and will undoubtedly continue if nothing is done. This necessitates urgent measures such as reforestation and afforestation, encouraging off-farm activities and even improving technologies to combat the rate of forest degradation of the BM. Additionally, rebuilding trust between the French and English Cameroons through dialogue is premodial, to end the curent conflictual civil war and lessen the landscape configuration in Bamenda.

Land use land cover change and socio-economic activities in the Burunge Wildlife Management Area ecosystem during COVID-19

Land use land cover change (LULCC) is among the major factors affecting the natural environment worldwide. Studying LULCC is essential as it contributes to natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and land use planning, especially during pandemics such as COVID-19. This study aimed at assessing the trend (1995–2021) and magnitude of LULCC in the Burunge WMA ecosystem before (2015–2018) and during COVID-19 (2018–2021). The data on LULCC were collected from the satellite imagery on the USGS website, whereas the data on perceptions of local communities on LULCC from Mwada, Kakoi and Maweni villages were collected through a household questionnaire survey (HQS) of 445 randomly sampled households, focused group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs). Quantitative data were analyzed using MS Excel 2019, R software (2022.02.0 + 443) and ArcGIS (Version 10.8). Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis techniques. The findings indicated a fluctuation in agriculture, forest, and water coverage. For instance, agriculture and settlements increased significantly by 23.91% in 2015–2021 and 5.71% in 1995–2005 respectively, whereas forested land showed a maximum increase of 7.33% in 1995–2005. However, there was a pronounced increase in agricultural lands (3.99%) during the COVID-19 phase as compared to the same time frame before the pandemic. Local communities pointed to agriculture and settlements as the major activities contributing to LULCC. The findings show significant LULCC in Burunge WMA which calls for special attention from responsible authorities and other stakeholders for the achievement of biodiversity conservation and the development of livelihoods in the area.

Urbanization Trends Analysis Using Hybrid Modeling of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process-Cellular Automata-Markov Chain and Investigating Its Impact on Land Surface Temperature over Gharbia City, Egypt

Quick population increase and the desire for urbanization are the main drivers for accelerating urban expansion on agricultural lands in Egypt. This issue is obvious in governorates with no desert backyards. This study aims to (1) explore the trend of Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) through the period of 1991–2018; (2) upgrade the reliability of predicting LULCC by integrating the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP); and (3) perform analysis of urbanization risk on LST trends over the Gharbia governorate for the decision makers to implement effective strategies for sustainable land use. Multi-temporal Landsat images were used to monitor LULCC dynamics from 1991 to 2018 and then simulate LULCC in 2033 and 2048. Two comparable models were adopted for the simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in the study area: CA-Markov chain and FAHP-CA-Markov chain hybrid models. The second model upgrades the potential of the CA-Markov chain for prediction by its integration with FAHP, which can determine the locations of high potential to be urbanized. The outcomes stated a significant LULCC in Gharbia during the study period—specifically, urban sprawl on agricultural land, and this trend is predicted to carry on. The agricultural sector represented 91.2% in 1991 and reduced to 83.7% in 2018. The built-up area is almost doubled by 2048 with respect to 2018. The regression analysis revealed the LST increase due to urbanization, causing an urban heat island phenomenon. Criteria-based analysis reveals the district’s vulnerability to rapid urbanization, which is efficient for data-gap zones. The simulation results make sense since the FAHP-CA-Markov simulated the LULCC in a thoughtful way, considering the driving forces of LULCC, while the CA-Markov chain results were relatively random. Therefore, the FAHP-CA-Markov chain is the pioneer to be relied upon for future projection. The findings of this work provide a better understanding of LULCC trends over the years supporting decision makers toward sustainable land use. Thus, further urbanization should be planned to avert the loss of agricultural land and uninterrupted increasing temperatures.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Landscape Transformation in Western Balkans’ Metropolitan Areas

Human-caused landscape transformation represents a danger to conserving the Earth’s natural habitats. Landscape fragmentation (LF) caused by transportation infrastructure and urban development poses a threat to human and environmental health by increasing traffic noise and pollution, reducing the size and viability of wildlife populations, facilitating the spread of invasive species, and reducing the recreational qualities of the landscape. It is especially noticeable in the metropolitan areas of developing countries due to rapid and unsupervised urban sprawl. In this context, this study aims to protect natural landscapes and biodiversity, promoting forms of sustainable development. To exemplify our aim, we bring a spatio-temporal analysis of landscape change comparing three metropolitan areas in the Western Balkans (WB). First, we compare the land use land cover (LULC) changes in Tirana (Albania), Skopje (North Macedonia), and Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina). The comparison was based on the Urban Atlas (UA) data of 2012 and 2018. The analysis was performed on two levels, at the metropolitan and urban spatial scales. Apart from descriptive statistics about the changes in surface area and patch counts, we used effective mesh size (meff) as a landscape metric to quantify the LF level. Our results show that each city has faced significant LULC change between 2012 and 2018, with a dominant increase in artificial surfaces. Furthermore, the cumulative natural surface area reduction is followed by increased landscape patch counts, indicating an increased LF at both levels. This study enhances public awareness about the landscape transformation trends in the developing metropolitan regions of WB. The respective administrative bodies at both local and central levels are invited to consider our results and adopt proper measurements to reduce the adverse consequences of subsequent spatial development decisions.

Evolution of water environment construction and urban landscape ecological risk based on land cover change analysis

Abstract Mining minerals plays a fundamental role in promoting social-economic progress. Intensive mining operations. However, it also brings huge ecological risks, and may lead to significant changes in land use/land cover (LULC), further affecting the urban landscape and ecological environment. Based on changes in LULC from 2000 to 2020 in the Jiawang district, a resource-based city, this study uses an ecological risk assessment as the theoretical basis for evaluating regional landscape ecological risk. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020 significant changes in LULC were the increase the areas of built-up land and those covered with water, and decreases occurred in the cultivated, industrial, and mining land areas. The conversion of industrial and mining lands to areas of water is a noteworthy ecological compensation area. (2) Over the past two decades, the average ecological risk in the study area was 0.19, 0.21, and 0.14, in 2000, 2010 and 2020, respectively, first increasing and then decreasing. The area ratio of the lowest-risk ecological risk areas dropped from 31.60% to 4.00%. (3) The global Moran's I values in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.6047, 0.6280, and 0.6392, respectively. The positive values indicate that the autocorrelation and spatial aggregation of ecological risks in Jiawang district gradually increased. This study can provide a basis for other resource-based cities to rationally allocate land resources and manage urban ecological risks.

Land use/land cover change as a major driver of current landscape flammability in Eastern Mediterranean region: A case study in Southwestern Turkey

Land use/land cover (LULC) change has been one of the main drivers of landscape changes in the Mediterranean region where there has been an increase in the forested lands. LULC change in the region has not only changed forest stand structure and composition but also resulted in increase in the available combustible fuels. There have been few studies on fuel accumulation in relation to LULC, however, no study explaining quantitatively the relationship between LULC change and canopy fuel load in the Mediterranean region. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of LULC changes on overall crown fire hazard through examining stand structure, composition, and canopy fuel loads in Eastern Mediterranean forests for 35 years. Forest stand type maps generated from the stereo interpretation of aerial photographs and field survey data were used for the analyses. The results of the study showed significant changes in LULC during the period of 1977-2012. There was a 16.6 % decrease in agricultural areas, 144.5 % increase in settlement areas and 6.8 % increase in pine forests. As for the structural and compositional changes in forested lands, open pine stands that included Mediterranean shrub communities decreased (77.2 %); nonetheless, closed pure pine stands increased (49.9 %), resulting in an increase in the total canopy fuel load in pine stands (86.4 %). Results indicated that landscapes tended to become more homogeneous, fully closed pine stands, resulting in an increase in the continuity and the buildup of fuels available for combustion.

Influence of Urban Growth on Landuse/Cover in Umuahia, Abia State Nigeria

Understanding land use/landcover change (LULC) dynamics is very important in sustainable land resource management. This is especially so for developing countries of the world where majority of the people depend heavily upon natural resources for survival. In this study, moderate spatial resolution Landsat images were freely downloaded from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) archives for 4 decadal dates of 1991, 2001, 2001 and 2021 for Umuahia town, which became capital of Abia state of Nigeria in 1991. The images were analyzed in ERDAS Imagine 14 and ArcGIS 10.2 software environments to generate LULC statistics for the 4 dates. Post classification comparison algorithm was used to generate LULC change trends from 1991 to 2021. Key informants interviews and direct field observations were used to identify the main drivers of LULC change in the area. The results show that, the town has undergone significant LULC changes since its designation as Abia state capital in 1991. The extent changes for the various LULCs over the 30 year period (1991 to 2021) have been Built-up (+233%), Bareland (-34%), Woodland (45%), Uncultivated Farmland (-62%), Burnt Woodland (630%) and Agricultural land (-25%). Water Body did not undergo change over the period. It was concluded that though urban growth has promoted some degradation trends in the town, it has promoted increases in urban woodland areas which could go a long way in promoting climate change mitigation, as well as human health and comfort in the town. It was recommended that there is the need to promote deliberate reforestation efforts boost development in urban woodlands.

Spatiotemporal Impacts of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Land Surface Temperature: A Comparative Study of Damascus and Aleppo (Syria)

Monitoring the impact of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and land surface temperature (LST) is of great importance in environmental and urban studies. In this context, this study aimed to analyze the dynamics of LULC and its impact on the spatiotemporal variation of the LST in the two largest urban cities in Syria, Damascus, and Aleppo. To achieve this, LULC changes, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and LST were calculated from multi-temporal Landsat data for the period 2010 to 2018. The study revealed significant changes in LULC, which were represented by a decrease in agricultural land and green areas and an increase in bare areas in both cities. In addition, built-up areas decreased in Aleppo and increased in Damascus during the study period. The temporal and spatial variation of the LST and its distribution pattern was closely related to the effect of changes in LULC as well as to land use conditions in each city. This effect was greater in Aleppo than in Damascus, where Aleppo recorded a higher increase in the mean LST, by about 2 °C, than in Damascus, where it was associated with greater degradation and loss of vegetation cover. In general, there was an increasing trend in the minimum and maximum LST as well as an increasing trend in the mean LST in both cities. The negative linear relationship between LST and NDVI confirms that vegetation cover can help reduce LST in both cities. This study can draw the attention of relevant departments to pay more attention to mitigating the negative impact of LULC changes in order to limit the increase in LST.

Tracking the Land Use Land Cover Changes from 2000 to 2018 in Local Area of East Java Province

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change represent the human influences on the natural ecosystem. This study aims to analyze LULC change in the eastern part of East Java. The region covers an area ± 3320,3 km 2 . The change analysed by comparing two editions of maps (the National Digital Map and Landsat-8). The five subsets explore to understand the change. The development of transportation infrastructure, industrial sites, agricultural sectors, tourism, urbanisation and sub-urbanisation caused the significant LULC change. Regional development has increased the built-up area by 8,66% (287.4 km 2 ) of the total area. Then increase of the paddy-field by 13.93% and forest-plantation area by 7.20%. Oppositely, the development decreases rural areas by -29.43% (977.2 km 2 ) and water body by -0.88 % (29.1 km 2 ). The LULC change has significantly converted the natural to human-induced landscapes that potentially fragile to disasters in this region.

Decadal Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Its Impact on Surface Runoff Potential for the Dhaka City and Surroundings Using Remote Sensing

Rapid urban growth processes give rise to impervious surfaces and are regarded as the primary cause of urban flooding or waterlogging in urban areas. The high rate of urbanization has caused waterlogging and urban flooding in many parts of Dhaka city. Therefore, the study is undertaken to quantify the changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and urban runoff extent based on the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Curve Number (CN) during 1978–2018. The five-decadal LULC has been analyzed using three-generation Landsat time-series data considering six different classes, namely agriculture, built-up, wetland, open land, green spaces, and water bodies for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2007, and 2018. Significant changes in LULC for the study area from 1978–2018 are observed as 13.1%, 4.8%, and 7.8% reduction in agricultural land, green spaces, and water bodies, respectively, and a 22.1% increase in the built-up area is estimated. Within Dhaka city, 14.6%, 16.0%, and 12.3% reduction in agricultural land, green spaces, and water bodies, respectively, and a radical increase of 41.9% in built-up area are reckoned. The decadal runoff assessment has been carried out using the NRCS-CN method, considering an extreme rainfall event of 341 mm/day (13 September 2004). The catchment area under very high runoff category is observed as 159.5 km2 (1978) and 318.3 km2 (2018), whereas, for Dhaka city, the setting is dynamic as the area under the very high runoff category has increased from 74.24 km2 (24.44%) to 174.23 km2 (57.36%) in years 1978 and 2018, respectively, and, mostly, the very high runoff potential areas correspond to the dense built-up surfaces.

Monitoring Agricultural Expansion in a Newly Reclaimed Area in the Western Nile Delta of Egypt Using Landsat Imageries

Detection and monitoring land use/land cover (LULC) changes using historical multi-temporal remote sensing data is greatly important for providing an effective and robust assessment of the human-induced impacts on the environmental conditions. It is extremely recommended for LULC studies related to evaluating the sustainability of changing areas over time. The agricultural sector in Egypt is one of the crucial pillars of the national economy. The amount of traditional agricultural land (Old Lands) in the Nile Delta had a significant decline over the past few decades due to urban encroachment. Consequently, several land reclamation initiatives and policies have been adopted by the Egyptian government to expand agricultural land in desert areas (New Lands) adjacent to both fringes of the Nile delta. Tiba district is one of those newly reclaimed areas located in the western Nile Delta of Egypt with a total area of 125 km2. The primary objective of this article was to identify, monitor and quantify historical LULC changes in Tiba district using historical multi-temporal Landsat imageries for six different dates acquired from 1988 to 2018. The temporal and historical changes that occurred were identified using supervised maximum likelihood classification (MLC) approach. Three major LULC classes were distinguished and mapped: (1) Agricultural land; (2) barren land; and (3) urban land. In 1988, Tiba district was 100% barren land; however, during the 1990s, the governmental reclamation projects have led to significant changes in LULC. The produced LULC maps from performing the MLC demonstrated that Tiba district had experienced significant agricultural land expansion from 0% in 1988 to occupy 84% in 2018, whilst, barren land area has decreased from 100% in 1988 to occupy only 7% in 2018. This reflects the successful governmental initiatives for agricultural expansion in desert areas located in the western Nile Delta of Egypt.

Effect of land use-land cover change on the regimes of surface runoff-the case of Lake Basaka catchment (Ethiopia).

In this study, the effect of land use-land cover change (LULCC) on surface (direct) runoff was estimated for Lake Basaka catchment using the soil conservation services-curve number model in the geospatial information system (ArcInfo), assisted by remote sensing. The result indicated that Lake Basaka catchment experienced a significant LULCC. About 86% of forest coverage and 46% of grasslands were lost over the study period (1973-2015), which were shifted to open bushy woodlands, farms, lake water and wetlands. The runoff responses were observed to be increasing since 1970s, especially after the inception of large-scale irrigation schemes to the region. The highest increase of surface runoff was observed to occur after mid-1980s, which is in line with the significant LULCC and the corresponding increment of lake level in that period. The reduction in vegetation cover has resulted in an increase of runoff coefficient (rc) from 0.07 in the 1960s to about 0.23 in 2000s. The sensitivity analysis result indicated that about 70% of the increase runoff rate in the lake catchment is attributed to LULCC, and the remaining proportion is due to rainfall. However, the effect of extreme rainfall on runoff process could not be underemphasized since it has significant impact especially during extreme events (observed rc of 0.33 in 2008). Overall, when predicting the runoff response of the lake catchment, it is importance to take into account possible future LULCC and evolution.

Global assessment of rural–urban interface in Portugal related to land cover changes

Abstract. The rural–urban interface (RUI), known as the area where structures and other human developments meet or intermingle with wildland and rural area, is at present a central focus of wildfire policy and its mapping is crucial for wildfire management. In the Mediterranean Basin, humans cause the vast majority of fires and fire risk is particularly high in the proximity of infrastructure and of rural/wildland areas. RUI's extension changes under the pressure of environmental and anthropogenic factors, such as urban growth, fragmentation of rural areas, deforestation and, more in general, land use/land cover change (LULCC). As with other Mediterranean countries, Portugal has experienced significant LULCC in the last decades in response to migration, rural abandonment, ageing of population and trends associated with the high socioeconomic development. In the present study, we analyzed the LULCC occurring in this country in the 1990–2012 period with the main objective of investigating how these changes affected RUI's evolution. Moreover, we performed a qualitative and quantitative characterization of burnt areas within the RUI in relation to the observed changes. Obtained results disclose important LULCC and reveal their spatial distribution, which is far from uniform within the territory. A significant increase in artificial surfaces was registered near the main metropolitan communities of the northwest, littoral-central and southern regions, whilst the abandonment of agricultural land near the inland urban areas led to an increase in uncultivated semi-natural and forest areas. Within agricultural areas, heterogeneous patches suffered the greatest changes and were the main contributors to the increase in urban areas; moreover, this land cover class, together with forests, was highly affected by wildfires in terms of burnt area. Finally, from this analysis and during the investigated period, it appears that RUI increased in Portugal by more than two-thirds, while the total burnt area decreased by one-third; nevertheless, burnt area within RUI doubled, which emphasizes the significance of RUI monitoring for land and fire managers.

Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Watershed Hydrology: A Case Study of Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is one of the important factors which have direct impacts on watershed hydrology. The impact of LULC change on streamflow of Upper Awash watershed was carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The LULC change analysis was performed by using unsupervised classification method using Earth Resources Data Analysis System (ERDAS) imagine 8.5 software. The study results showed that the watershed experienced significant LULC change during 1986 to 2009. SWAT model was calibrated for periods 1986 to 1999 and validated for the periods 2000 to 2009. SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the sensitivity of streamflow parameters. Consequently, ten parameters were identified to be sensitive. Further, this model was utilized to assess the impact of LULC change on streamflow for period 1986 to 2009. The result showed that there was a reasonable agreement between observed and simulated streamflow with coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values 0.86 and 0.77 for calibration, and 0.84 and 0.76 for validation, respectively. The evaluation of SWAT hydrologic response unit (HRU) due to LULC change showed that monthly streamflow was increased by 16.13 % in wet months and decreased by 20.8 % in dry months between the years 1986 and 2000. While between the year 2000 and 2009, it was increased by 0.92 % and 5.82 % for wet and dry months, respectively. Similarly, surface runoff was found increased and groundwater decreased during the study period. Further, the calibrated model can be utilized to understand risk and reliability of different structures and analysis of climate change, water quality, and sediment yield. Hence, this type of study can be useful for sustainable development in the Upper Awash basin as well as in other regions of Ethiopia.

Transformation of degraded farmlands to agroforestry in Zongi Village, Ethiopia

The interaction of human land use, steep slopes and erosion has been a serious threat to Ethiopia’s ecosystems. Community’s initiated land rehabilitation programmes such as tree regeneration on farm lands, hill-side planting and exclosures have been established to rejuvenate debilitated lands. To characterize, map out and monitor such transformations, this study was carried out in Zongi, Tigray Region of northern Ethiopia. The study used an integration of remote sensing data, field observations and information from key informants and randomly selected respondents to analyse the land-use/land cover (LULC) changes from 1984 to 2013. Conventional method of supervised image classification was used for landsat image of 2013 while hybrid method of unsupervised and supervised classification was employed for landsat images of 1984 and 1999. The results revealed significant modifications and conversion of LULC types over the multi-dates. Analysis of the 29-year change matrix revealed that 78.5% of the land underwent significant changes in LULC. The major changes to agroforestry land use(LU)types between 1984 and 2013 were conversion of intensively cultivated land to moderately cultivated land (32.1%) and sparsely cultivated land (11.8%). The drivers of changes were linked to the introduction of land rehabilitation initiatives, government consensus (via agricultural extension) with the community, which were complemented by growing awareness of landowners. This study corroborates the necessity of community involvement and participation to improve their land use systems for environmental sustainability and sustainable livelihood.

Land use/cover change and its drivers: a case in the watershed of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the watershed (2,157 km2) of Lake Kasumigaura during 1979–1996 (Period-1: 1979–1990, Period-2: 1990–1996) were analyzed, and their socio-economic and biophysical drivers were compared using time-series, high-quality GIS datasets in order to examine the characteristics of a model forecasting the future LULC. The changes occurred over an area of more than 90 km2 during the overall period at changing rates of 0.22% year−1 in Period-1 and 0.25% year−1 in Period-2. Forestland decreased most in both periods at changing rates of 0.45% year−1 in Period-1 and 0.61% year−1 in Period-2. However, predominant changing patterns differed, i.e., from forest to golf course in Period-1 and from forest to artificial field in Period-2. Particularly in Period-2, a significant LULC change was observed in an area of high population increase on the edge of an already high-population area. Relationships examined among LULC change, population, and rate of population change suggested that the urbanized area was highly resistant to LULC change, and that such change was less frequent in areas of population decline. Statistical analyses indicated that the most influential drivers for total LULC changes were population in Period-1 and distance from the Tokyo Station in Period-2. Since the change potentials differed between the periods, we could not assume a stationary process for the corresponding drivers. Somewhat low S values (indices for demonstrability) show that LULC changes in the watershed of Lake Kasumigaura occurred rather randomly, probably resulting in fragmentation of the landscape.