Significant Trend Research Articles

Aridification and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Hydrology and Ecosystems over a Comprehensive Transition Zone in China

Abstract In China, the topography, climate, ecology, hydrology, and human environment vary greatly from southeast to northwest, and a typical natural and social environmental transition zone (i.e., comprehensive transition zone) exists near the “Hu Huanyong line,” which is a famous demographic dividing line in China, known as the Hu zone. Dry and wet climate changes in the Hu zone can have a significant impact on terrestrial ecosystems and hydrological conditions, ultimately affecting human–land relations. However, there is still a lack of clear understanding of environmental changes in the context of climate change in the Hu zone. Here, a quantitative analysis of climate change and its impacts on terrestrial hydrology and ecosystems from 1951 to 2020 is presented. The results showed that there exists a significant drying trend in the Hu zone and a dramatic decrease in terrestrial water storage (TWS), indicating that the environment has become worse. Conversely, from the perspective of significant greening, the environment has improved. This contradiction is mainly due to climate change dominating the depletion of TWS, while the increase in vegetation greenness is more driven by human activities including agricultural management and ecological restoration, offsetting to some extent the negative impact of water scarcity on vegetation growth. Significance Statement The Hu zone is a transition zone between southeast and northwest China, which is a sensitive area under climate change as well as key region for coordinated development. The purpose of this study is to reveal the long-term climate change in the Hu zone and its impacts on hydrology and ecology. Our results indicate a significant drying trend in this zone over the last 70 years, which led to a substantial reduction in water storage. However, the vegetation coverage increased due to human activities. This study provides guidance for agricultural structure adjustment and ecological protection in transition zones. Future research should focus more on the assessment and risk management of dry/wet changes in climate transition areas around the world.

Increasing venous thromboembolism risk assessment through a whole hospital-based intervention: a pre-post service evaluation to demonstrate quality improvement.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a primary cause of morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients. VTE risk assessment is a crucial part of the VTE prevention guideline. However, VTE risk assessment was not consistently undertaken for admitted patients. The aim of this study was to identify whether a quality improvement project implemented to change documentation of VTE risk assessment for hospitalized patients impacted patient safety by decreasing the rate of VTE incidences. The study was set in a 600+ bed acute hospital that provides medical and surgical services for adult patients during the period October 2018-September 2020. The hospital adopted the American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) 9th edition VTE prevention guidelines and followed the Modified Caprini risk assessment tool. Following the FOCUS-Plan-Do-Check-Act (FOCUS PDCA) improvement methodology, the improvement team implemented multicomponent interventions over a 3-month period, including conducting educational sessions, sharing VTE documentation compliance results, giving reminders during rounds, assigning a VTE liaison physician within each clinical specialty, and updating and communicating the hospital adopted VTE guidelines. A total of 17 612 patients were included, respectively, 8971 in pre-intervention and 8641 post-intervention period. Documentation of VTE risk assessment upon admission increased significantly in the post quality improvement intervention period (60% vs. 42%, relative increase of 30%, χ2 = 1.43, P < 0.001). The run chart trend analysis demonstrated significant improvement shift and improvement trend after quality improvement project implementation, and it was sustained for 15 months. There was no impact on patient safety with a slight not statistically significant decrease in the VTE incidences rate post intervention period (0.4% vs. 0.5%, relative decrease of 1%, χ2 = 0.82, P < 0.397). The quality improvement project intervention significantly increased the percentage of patients assessed for VTE risk in a hospital setting.

Mapping the distance between fire hazard and disaster for communities in Canadian forests.

Communities interspersed throughout the Canadian wildland are threatened by fires that have become bigger and more frequent in some parts of the country in recent decades. Identifying the fireshed (source area) and pathways from which wildland fire may ignite and spread from the landscape to a community is crucial for risk-reduction strategy and planning. We used outputs from a fire simulation model, including fire polygons and rate of spread, to map firesheds, fire pathways and corridors and spread distances for 1980 communities in the forested areas of Canada. We found fireshed sizes are larger in the north, where the mean distances between ecumene and fireshed perimeters were greater than 10 km. The Rayleigh Z test indicated that simulated fires around a large proportion of communities show significant directional trends, and these trends are stronger in the Boreal Plains and Shields than in the Rocky Mountain area. The average distance from which fire, when spreading at the maximum simulated rate, could reach the community perimeter was approximately 5, 12 and 18 km in 1, 2 and 3 days, respectively. The average daily spread distances increased latitudinally, from south to north. Spread distances were the shortest in the Pacific Maritime, Atlantic Maritime and Boreal Plains Ecozones, implying lower rates of spread compared to the rest of the country. The fire corridors generated from random ignitions and from ignitions predicted from local fire history differ, indicating that factors other than fuel (e.g. fire weather, ignition pattern) play a significant role in determining the direction that fires burn into a community.

Effect of computer workstation set-ups on muscle oxygen saturation and perceived fatigue

Multiple literatures show evidences of how office workstation set-ups can influence muscle activities. However, the relationship between the postural adoption due to workstation setup and its effect to muscle oxygen saturation among office workers is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate trends of muscle oxygen saturation and perceived fatigue ratings between different upper limbs posture variations among representative computer users. A repeated measure experiment was conducted on 15 participants to compare the muscle oxygen saturation and perceived fatigue ratings between four different office work posture variations. Parametric and non-parametric statistical analyses were conducted to analyze significant differences on the dependent parameters. Data analysis showed statistically significant trends (p≤0.050) of lower muscle oxygen saturation in workstation set-ups in which participants were adopting raised shoulder and extended arm positions. In addition, the findings revealed that the perceived fatigue ratings on the shoulder, upper arm and lower arm are the lowest (p≤0.050) in workstation condition where subject can adopt neutral postures. The results highlight the effect of good office workstation setup and work postures to individual muscle oxygen saturation and fatigue levels.

Environmental dependence of AGN activity and star formation in galaxy clusters from Magneticum simulations

Context. The environment inside and on the outskirts of galaxy clusters has a profound impact on the star formation rate and active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity in cluster galaxies. While the overall star formation and AGN suppression in the inner cluster regions has been thoroughly studied in the past, recent X-ray studies also indicate that conditions on the cluster outskirts may promote AGN activity. Aims. We investigate how the environment and the properties of host galaxies impact the levels of AGN activity and star formation in galaxy clusters. We aim to identify significant trends in different galaxy populations and suggest possible explanations. Methods. We studied galaxies with stellar mass log M*(M⊙) &gt; 10.15 in galaxy clusters with mass M500 &gt; 1013 M⊙ extracted from box2b (640 comoving Mpc h−1) of the Magneticum Pathfinder suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations at redshifts 0.25 and 0.90. We examined the influence of stellar mass, distance to the nearest neighbouring galaxy, cluster-centric radius, substructure membership, and large-scale surroundings on the fraction of galaxies hosting an AGN, star formation rate, and the ratio between star-forming and quiescent galaxies. Results. We find that in low-mass galaxies, AGN activity and star formation are similarly affected by the environment and decline towards the cluster centre. In massive galaxies, the impact is different; star-formation level increases in the inner regions and peaks between 0.5 and 1 R500 with a rapid decline in the centre, whereas AGN activity declines in the inner regions and rapidly rises below R500 towards the centre. We suggest that this increase is a result of the larger black hole masses relative to stellar masses in the cluster centre. After disentangling the contributions of neighbouring cluster regions, we find an excess of AGN activity in massive galaxies on the cluster outskirts (∼3 R500). We also find that the local density, substructure membership, and stellar mass strongly influence star formation and AGN activity but verify that they cannot fully account for the observed radial trends.

Uveitis Onset and Flare-Up: Does the Time of Year Matter?

ABSTRACT Purpose This retrospective chart review tests the hypothesis that initial presentation and flare-up of non-infectious anterior, intermediate, and posterior uveitis varies by month, temperature season, and calendar season among the patient population in Connecticut. Methods The medical records of all adult patients presenting with a chief concern or diagnosis of “uveitis” at a university-based clinic between March 2013 and February 2019 and a community-based clinic between January 2016 and February 2019 in Connecticut were reviewed. Ongoing, chronic uveitis and infectious/traumatic uveitis were excluded. Patient age, sex, comorbid autoimmune conditions, time of onset, and anatomical location of uveitis was collected. χ 2 testing evaluated variation in uveitis presentation based on month, calendar season, and temperature. Results 353 cases of endogenous uveitis were identified among 272 patients. There was no significant variation by month, calendar season, or temperature across the entire population. There was no significant variation by temperature when assessing anterior uveitis, intermediate uveitis, posterior uveitis, and panuveitis cases separately. Though flare-ups did not show any significant seasonal trends, there was significant variation by temperature for new uveitis episodes. Uveitis episodes in patients with autoimmune conditions were shown to have significant variation by temperature. Uveitis episodes in HLA-B27 positive patients were found to have significant variation by both temperature and month. Conclusion While variation by month, calendar season, or temperature is not present for all uveitis patients, a subset of patients with comorbid autoimmune conditions, specifically HLA-B27 positive, experience temperature variations with increasing incidence of flare-ups in transitional months in Connecticut.

Seasonal Drought Dynamics and the Time-Lag Effect in the MU Us Sandy Land (China) Under the Lens of Climate Change

Sand prevention and control are the main tasks of desertification control. The MU Us Sandy Land (MUSL), one of China’s four main deserts, frequently experiences droughts and has a very fragile biological environment. Climate change is the main factor leading to drought, and it may result in more serious drought situations in the future. The Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) was established using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index data. In this paper, we investigate spatial and temporal change characteristics, future change trends, and the time-lag effect of TVDI on climate factors at different scales in MUSL from 2001 to 2020 using Sen + Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Hurstexponent, partial correlation analysis, and lag analysis methods. The results show that (1) the overall drought shows a spatial characteristic of gradually alleviating from west to east (TVDI = 0.6). A significant drying trend dominated 38.5% of the pixels in the fall (Z = 1.99), and a highly significant drying trend dominated the rest of the three seasons (Z average = 2.95) and the whole year (Z = 3.47). (2) In the future, dry autumn, winter, and the whole year will be dominated by continuous drying, and spring and summer will mainly change from dry to wet. The main relationships between winter TVDI and temperature (−0.06) and precipitation (−0.07) were negative, while evapotranspiration (0.18) showed a positive correlation. The six land use types in spring, summer, fall, and the whole year were primarily non-significantly positively correlated with temperature and evapotranspiration. (3) At the seasonal scale, the sensitive factors in spring and autumn were opposite, with spring TVDI responding quickly to precipitation (0.3 months) and being less sensitive to temperature (1.8 months) and evapotranspiration (2 months). At the interannual scale, desert land TVDI was most sensitive to precipitation (2.6 months) and least responsive to temperature (3 months).

The mean reticulocyte volume is a valuable index in early diagnosis of cancer-related anemia.

Cancer-related anemia (CRA) is a functional iron deficient anemia, and the early diagnosis will improve the prognosis of the patients. This prospective study aimed to investigate the utility of mean reticulocyte volume (MRV) in the early diagnosis of CRA. A total of 284 first-diagnosed cancer patients were enrolled, and the subjects were assigned anemia and non-anemia groups by hemoglobin (Hb) concentrations. The mature RBC and reticulocyte indices were detected with BC-7500 blood analyzer, and the MRV, reticulocyte hemoglobin (RHE) content, and reticulocyte production index (RPI) were obtained. ROC curves were constructed in identifying anemia diagnosed by the combination of RHE and RPI. An adjusted multivariate analyse and quartiles were used to assess the associations of MRV with early CRA diagnosed by combining RBC indices (MCV, MCH and MCHC), respectively. No statistical differences were observed in MCV, RHE and MRV levels between anemia and non-anemia subjects (p>0.05). MRV exhibited a complete or high correlation with the RHE levels (r=1.000, p<0.001), or MCV, MCH, and MCHC in anemia patients (R: 0.575-0.820, p<0.001). ROC curves analyse indicated a highest area under curve of 0.829 (95% CI [0.762-0.895]) and 0.884 (95% CI [0.831-0.936]) for MRV in identifying anemia in male and female patients, respectively (p<0.001). When the optimal cutoff values of MRV were set at 100.95 fl in males and 98.35 fl in females, the sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 and 0.68, and 1.00 and 0.73, respectively. The regression analyse showed that, when being as a categorical variable, MRV showed an odds ratio of 19.111 (95% CI [6.985-52.288]; p<0.001) for the incidence of CRA. The incidence of overall anemia demonstrated a more significant decrease trend along with the increase of MRV quartiles (p-trend < 0.001). This study revealed that the MRV can be used as a convenient and sensitive index in early diagnosis of cancer-related anemia, and decreased MRV level may be the powerful predictor of overt anemia in cancer patients.

Strategic Development and Comprehensive Guidelines for State Policy in Kazakhstan's Religious Sphere

This research article delves into Kazakhstan's state policies in the religious realm, emphasizing the strategic objectives and primary routes that shape this sector. It explores significant trends and characteristics, framing its analysis within Kazakhstan's recent state-building efforts. The study meticulously evaluates current policy measures, legal frameworks, and operational mechanisms in the religious sphere, identifying essential areas that demand policy refinement and strategic development. The findings advocate for the creation of policies that not only protect religious freedom and enhance social cohesion but also correspond with Kazakhstan's broader goals of stability and advancement. The recommended policy approaches highlight the importance of collaborative endeavors among government entities, religious organizations, and civil society to develop policies that are fair, respect diversity, and support the peaceful coexistence of diverse religious communities. By presenting a thorough policy framework for improving state-religious relations in Kazakhstan, this article contributes significantly to the dialogue on managing state-religion dynamics, offering perspectives that may be relevant to other countries encountering similar challenges.

Burden of chickenpox complications in Poland, 2006 to 2021: A comprehensive registry-based study.

BackgroundChickenpox, a vaccine-preventable disease caused by the varicella zoster virus, generally presents with mild symptoms but can cause complications necessitating hospitalisation. In Poland, since 2009, vaccination has been obligatory for children up to 12 years of age who are particularly vulnerable to infection and for children in their vicinity.AimTo examine the burden of chickenpox complications and the trends of hospitalisation arising from these complications over time in the Polish population.MethodsData spanning 2006-21 were sourced from the Polish Infectious Diseases Surveillance System, the Nationwide General Hospital Morbidity Study and the Statistics Poland death registry. Standardised and age-specific incidence rates, hospital discharge rates and number of deaths because of chickenpox were calculated. Moreover, the joinpoint regression model was used to analyse trends of annual hospital discharge rates.ResultsOver the analysed timeframe, 25,804 hospitalisations and 52 deaths attributable to chickenpox complications were documented, and 1.0% of chickenpox cases required hospitalisation because of chickenpox. Age-standardised hospitalisation rates varied between 2.3 and 9.6 per 100,000 population. The analysis revealed no statistically significant trend in overall hospital discharge rates from chickenpox complications. However, a notable increase in hospitalisation rates was observed in children aged 0-4 and among inhabitants of rural areas, with annual percentage changes of 4.9% and 3.4% respectively.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the implementation of a universal chickenpox immunisation programme, supported by health education, should be considered to reduce the number of hospitalisations and nearly eliminate deaths because of chickenpox.

Optimisasi Sistem Manajemen Transaksi Pada Stasiun Pengisian Listrik Berbasis Website

The growth in the use of electric vehicles has become a significant trend in recent years, supported by the establishment of several electric charging stations in urban areas. The reliability of transaction system management at electric charging stations is one of the main focuses. Therefore, research is needed to create a transaction system at a simple electric charging station that utilizes a website-based platform. The aim of this research is to optimize transaction system management at electric charging stations. Based on the results obtained in this research, the tool is capable of charging from an AC source which is converted to DC by a 12V 5A power adapter. Charging is carried out using a 12V 3.5Ah battery with a nominal price option of 5,000 to 25,000. When the top-up reaches the nominal value filled in, the top-up will be cut off by the relay and the transaction receipt will automatically come out. The receipt data that comes out will be stored on the website. Operators and users can monitor transaction data via the STARIK website.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and variability in the thermal state of permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

AbstractPermafrost degradation on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has significant impacts on climate, hydrology, and engineering and environmental systems. To understand the temporal and spatial characteristics of permafrost on the QTP, we quantified the variation in active layer thickness (ALT), permafrost thermal state, and future permafrost change under different scenarios using observational data, reanalysis data, and the numerical permafrost model. Generally, ALT ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 m with an average of 2.39 m, and mean annual ground temperature (at a depth of zero annual amplitude for ground temperature) mainly ranged between 0 and −3°C with an average of −0.85°C. The soil temperatures in different layers based on the ERA5‐Land data revealed even stronger increasing trends, for example, 0.245, 0.245, 0.244, and 0.238°C/decade at depths of 0–7, 7–28, 28–100, and 100–289 cm from 1980 to 2021, compared to those during the period from 1960 to 2021, which were 0.153, 0.156, 0.155, and 0.149°C/decade, respectively. The average warming trends in annual mean soil temperature were 0.153 and 0.243°C/decade from 1960 to 2021 and 1980 to 2021, respectively. The average rate of thickening of the ALT among the 10 active layer observation sites was 2.84 cm/year. There was a significant warming trend in ground temperature above ~15 m with warming of 0.063 to 0.120, 0.026 to 0.182, 0.101 to 0.314, and 0.189 to 0.303°C/decade at the QTB01, QTB06, QTB08, and XDTGT sites, respectively, and yearly minimum ground temperatures exhibited stronger warming trends than maximum ground temperatures. In addition, the simulation revealed significant increases in ground temperature at the Xidatan (XDT) and Tanggula (TGL) sites under both historical and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, but the increases in ground temperature were significantly greater at TGL than XDT. These findings provide important information for understanding the variability in permafrost degradation processes and improving simulations of permafrost change under climate change on the QTP.

Assessment of Social Vulnerabilities of Care and Prognosis in Adult Ocular Melanomas in the US.

Prior works have studied the impact of social determinants on various cancers but there is limited analysis on eye-orbit cancers. Current literature tends to focus on socioeconomic status and race, with sparse analysis of interdisciplinary contributions. We examined social determinants as measured by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), quantifying eye and orbit melanoma disparities across the United States. A retrospective review of 15,157 patients diagnosed with eye-orbit cancers in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1975 to 2017 was performed, extracting 6139 ocular melanomas. SVI scores were abstracted and matched to SEER patient data, with scores generated by weighted averages per population density of county's census tracts. Primary outcome was months survived, while secondary outcomes were advanced staging, high grading, and primary surgery receipt. With increased total SVI score, indicating more vulnerability, we observed significant decreases of 23.1% in months survival for melanoma histology (p<0.001) and 19.6-39.7% by primary site. Increasing total SVI showed increased odds of higher grading (odds ratio [OR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.43) and decreased odds of surgical intervention (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96). Of the four themes, higher magnitude contributions were observed with socioeconomic status (26.0%) and housing transportation (14.4%), while lesser magnitude contributions were observed with minority language status (13.5%) and household composition (9.0%). Increasing social vulnerability, as measured by the CDC SVI and its subscores, displayed significant detrimental trends in prognostic and treatment factors for adult eye-orbit melanoma. Subscores quantified which social determinants contributed most to disparities. This lays groundwork for providers to target the highest-impact social determinant for non-clinical factors in patient care.

Smoking Susceptibility and Trends Among Nonsmoking Adolescents: An International Study.

Smoking susceptibility is defined as a lack of firm decision against smoking, usually starts in the preparation and/or initiation stages of smoking behavior, and is a strong predictor of smoking experimentation during adolescence. However, the recent global prevalence and trends in smoking susceptibility among adolescents are not well documented. This study assessed global smoking susceptibility and secular trends among nonsmoking adolescents. Smoking susceptibility was analyzed using the most recent data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey from 129 countries, where the data from each country were drawn from at least 1 survey conducted at any time between 1999 and 2020. Moreover, data from 82 countries were used to assess the average annual rate of change (AARC) in smoking susceptibility over time. Smoking susceptibility among nonsmoking adolescents was 19.6%. A U-shaped relationship was observed between susceptibility and a country's economic level. Most countries showed no changes in susceptibility over time. Countries with a significant upward trend in susceptibility were primarily high-income and upper middle-income countries in the American region. At the World Health Organization regional level, susceptibility significantly decreased in the European region (AARC: -3.5%; 95% confidence interval, -5.8 to -0.8); however, it significantly increased in the American region (AARC: 2.2%; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-3.1). Smoking susceptibility remains a serious public health challenge among adolescents worldwide. More public health policies are needed to reduce susceptibility and to control its upward trend in the American region and high-income countries.

Analyzing the Impact of Land Cover Changes on Spatio-Temporal Temperature Dynamics in the Kara Region of Togo

This comprehensive study delves into the intricate interplay between temperature trends and land cover dynamics in the Kara region, offering robust insights into the evolving climate and environmental patterns. Employing the Mann-Kendall trend test, our analysis reveals a statistically significant and consistent warming trend over the study period. The observed low p-values, positive Tau values, and upward-sloping regression lines emphasize the urgent need for proactive measures to address the climate-related challenges faced by the region. Simultaneously, a meticulous correlation analysis explores the relationships between land surface temperature (LST) and key land metrics- farms, barelands, built-ups, forests, and water bodies. Farmlands exhibit a noteworthy and statistically significant negative correlation of −0.74 with LST (p &lt; 0.05), indicating a cooling influence and supported by a substantial 43.8% predictive power. Conversely, barelands and built-ups demonstrate strong positive correlations of 0.89 and 0.78, respectively, with LST both statistically significant at the 95% confidence level (p &lt; 0.05), emphasizing their considerable warming impact. Forests and water bodies, with moderate negative correlations of −0.65 and −0.54, maintain statistical significance (p &lt; 0.05), indicating their role in temperature moderation, supported by 8.5% and 13% significance. The inclusion of Sen’s slope values further enriches the analysis, providing quantitative insights into the rate of temperature change. The positive slope values underscore the increasing trend in temperatures over each respective decade. The observed statistical significances, Tau values, and Sen’s slope values accentuate the importance of these relationships for effective land management and environmental planning. Recognizing the cooling influence of farmlands suggests their potential use in strategic urban planning to mitigate temperature increases. Conversely, the warming impact of barelands and built-ups emphasizes the need for sustainable urban development practices to counteract rising temperatures in urbanized regions. Additionally, the cooling influence of forests and water bodies underscores their crucial role in temperature moderation.

Spatiotemporal climate variability and trends in the Upper Gelana Watershed, northeastern highlands of Ethiopia

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of CHIRPS and TAMSAT satellite rainfall data over the Upper Gelana watershed, where gauged meteorological data to understand the nature of the climate are scarce. In addition, variability and trends in rainfall and temperature were examined from 1983 to 2021. To evaluate satellite rainfall, categorical and continuous validation statistics were used. Trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall, Sen's Slope estimator, and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. The study also utilized time-series geostatistical analysis techniques. The validation statistics show that TAMSAT performs better on the daily timescale, while the two products have comparable performance on the monthly timescale. TAMSAT was chosen for rainfall analysis because of its higher resolution and performance. The results reveal high inter-annual spatiotemporal variability and strong irregularities in monthly rainfall. The Mann-Kendall test indicates statistically significant positive trends in kiremt and annual rainfall, but belg rainfall exhibits an insignificant negative trend. In the kiremt season, we found a 96.1, 101.6, and 104.8 mm decadal rate of rainfall increment in the lower weina dega (LWD), upper weina dega (UWD), and dega agroecological zones, respectively. In contrast, belg season rainfall declined by 16.4, 16.2, and 14.0 mm per decade in the LWD, UWD, and dega agroecology zones, respectively. The pixel-wise trend analysis also revealed trends and magnitudes of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall that vary across the study area. In both LWD and UWD annual minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively, showed significant decreasing and increasing trends, but in dega agroecology the trends were insignificant. The findings of rainfall and temperature trends using the ITA method demonstrated its ability to discover some hidden trends that were not detected by the MK test.

Two decades of fire activity over the PEEX domain: a look from space, with contribution from models and ground-based measurements

ABSTRACT It has been suggested that forest fires will become more frequent/intense with changing climate, which would increase aerosol/gas emissions into the atmosphere. A better understanding of the relations between meteorological conditions, fires, and fire emissions will help estimate the climate response via forest fires. In this study, we use ERA5 meteorological products, including temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, to explain the frequency of forest fires and the amount of radiant energy released per time unit by burning vegetation (fire radiative power, FRP). We explore the relationships between satellite-retrieved fire products and aerosol properties (aerosol optical depth, AOD), carbon monoxide (CO), formaldehyde (HCHO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over the PEEX domain, which covers different vegetation zones (e.g. croplands/grasslands, forest, arctic tundra) of Pan-Eurasia and China. We analyse the concentrations of black carbon and absorbing organic carbon using ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork. The analysis covers the months of May to August from 2002 to 2022. We show positive temperature trends in the Northern zone (>65°N) in June and August (1.56°C and 0.64°C, respectively); all statistically significant trends for precipitation and soil moisture are negative. This can explain increased fire activity in Siberia over the recent years (2019–2022). Over the whole PEEX domain, FC and FRP trends remain insignificant or negative; a decrease in AOD may address those negative trends. We show that intra-summer variations exist for cropland/grassland fires, which occur most often in May and August, while Siberian forest fires occur more often in July and August. We show that CO concentration has been gradually decreasing in the last two decades in May and June. CO trends are negative in May, June, and over summer for all regions, in July in Europe, China, the Southern zone (<55°N), and the PEEX domain. HCHO trends are not significant in all regions. NO2 trends are positive in May and negative in June in all zones. We calculated total column enhancement ratios for satellite observations influenced by wildfires. A common feature has been recognized with measurements and ratios utilized in SILAM (System for Integrated Modelling of Atmospheric Composition): AOD(or PM):CO and AOD(or PM):HCHO ratios for grass are clearly lower than for shrubs, opposite for AOD:NO2. We showed that emission ratios are increasing towards South and are 2–3 times higher for high (>0.5) AOD. Using a 21-year satellite record of the AOD and CO, an 18-year record of NO2, and a 16-year record of HCHO, we created background products of those variables over the PEEX domain. In the regions with low anthropogenic activity and conditions where long-range transport is not happening, anomalies in AOD, CO, and HCHO over biomass-burning areas may be assigned directly to the wildfire emissions.

Tracking Cancer: Exploring Heart Rate Variability Patterns by Cancer Location and Progression.

Reduced heart rate variability (HRV) is an autonomic nervous system (ANS) response that may indicate dysfunction in the human body. Consistent evidence shows cancer patients elicit lower HRV; however, only select cancer locations were previously evaluated. Thus, the aim of the current study was to explore HRV patterns in patients diagnosed with and in varying stages of the most prevalent cancers. At a single tertiary academic medical center, 798 patients were recruited. HRV was measured via an armband monitor (Warfighter MonitorTM, Tiger Tech Solutions, Inc., Miami, FL, USA) equipped with electrocardiographic capabilities and was recorded for 5 to 7 min with patients seated in an upright position. Three time-domain metrics were calculated: SDNN (standard deviation of the NN interval), rMSSD (the root mean square of successive differences of NN intervals), and the percentage of time in which the change in successive NN intervals exceeds 50ms within a measurement (pNN50). Of the 798 patients, 399 were diagnosed with cancer. Cancer diagnoses were obtained via medical records one week following the measurement. Analysis of variance models were performed comparing the HRV patterns between different cancers, cancer stages (I-IV), and demographic strata. A total of 85% of the cancer patients had breast, gastrointestinal, genitourinary, or respiratory cancer. The cancer patients were compared to a control non-cancer patient population with similar patient size and distributions for sex, age, body mass index, and co-morbidities. For all HRV metrics, non-cancer patients exhibited significantly higher rMSSDs (11.1 to 13.9 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNNs (22.8 to 27.7 ms, p < 0.0001), and pNN50s (6.2 to 8.1%, p < 0.0001) compared to stage I or II cancer patients. This significant trend was consistently observed across each cancer location. Similarly, compared to patients with stage III or IV cancer, non-cancer patients possessed lower HRs (-11.8 to -14.0 bpm, p < 0.0001) and higher rMSSDs (+31.7 to +32.8 ms, p < 0.0001), SDNNs (+45.2 to +45.8 ms), p < 0.0001, and pNN50s (19.2 to 21.6%, p < 0.0001). The HR and HRV patterns observed did not significantly differ between cancer locations (p = 0.96 to 1.00). The depressed HRVs observed uniformly across the most prevalent cancer locations and stages appeared to occur independent of patients' co-morbidities. This finding highlights the potentially effective use of HRV as a non-invasive tool for determining common cancer locations and their respective stages. More studies are needed to delineate the HRV patterns across different ages, between sexes and race/ethnic groups.

Responses of annual streamflow variability to annual precipitation, extreme climate events and large-scale climate phenomena in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Solar activity and large-scale climate phenomena have significant effects on extreme climate events and streamflow variability. As the roof of the world and the water tower of Asia, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between extreme hydrometeorological events of the QTP and climate change for global hydroclimate research. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation and significant oscillation period of several hydrometeorological variables such as extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), extreme temperature indices (ETIs) and annual streamflow variability based on the observation data of hydrometeorological stations in the QTP during 1962–2019 using Sen’s slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test and continuous wavelet analysis (CWT). And the teleconnection patterns and the lead-lag relationship between annual precipitation, extreme climate events, multiple nonstationary climate mode and annual streamflow were evaluated using wavelet coherence (WTC). The results show that the climate of the QTP has been wetter and warmer in the past 58 years. The annual streamflow of several natural rivers in the QTP mainly show an increasing trend over the last 60 years. The annual streamflow of natural river (except Yellow River) increases significantly in three-rivers headwater region, and the rivers in the northeast and northwest also show a significant increase trend, but there is no significant change in the natural river streamflow in the south of QTP. In addition, the annual streamflow of natural rivers had significant periodicities in the bands of 2–4 years, 4–7 years and 7–11 years. The significant coherence of WTC spectra between annual precipitation and streamflow indicate that precipitation is the main reason for annual streamflow variation in the QTP. The variation of extreme climate events significantly regulates the regional annual streamflow. All EPIs except consecutive dry days show an in-phase correlation with annual streamflow of most headwater. Annual streamflow of Naijin River is positively and negatively correlated with extreme warm and extreme cold, respectively, and has a clearer lead-lag relationship than that with EPIs. Annual streamflow of headwater has higher correlations with EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) than with sunspot number (SSN). Solar activity may first affect ENSO and PDO, and then this effect is transferred sequentially to the hydrological cycle of the QTP by SSN-modulated PDO and PDO-SSN co-modulated ENSO. It is of great significance to investigate the response of streamflow variation to annual precipitation, extreme climate events and large-scale climate phenomena for water resources management, flood control, ecosystem restoration, and the well-being of surrounding residents and sustainable development in the QTP.

Roles of Thermal Forced and Eddy‐Driven Effects in the Northward Shifting of the Subtropical Westerly Jet Under Recent Climate Change

AbstractThe zonal‐mean subtropical westerly jet (SWJ) in boreal winter shows a significant northward shift trend under recent climate change. Previous studies proposed thermal forcing—represented by the thermal wind associated with the temperature gradient—and the driving effect of the eddy momentum flux (EMF) convergence that leads to the eddy‐driven jet as explanations for this process; however, their relative importance in influencing the SWJ shift requires further investigation. In this study, we examined the roles of thermal forced and eddy‐driven jet components in the zonal‐mean northward SWJ shift. We also investigated the role of Hadley circulation because its poleward boundary is related to the zonal‐mean SWJ. Results suggest that thermal forced component plays a major role, while EMF‐driven component plays a secondary role. Specifically, the subtropical warming, which is primarily influenced by enhanced adiabatic downward motion of the Hadley circulation, increases the meridional temperature gradient and the associated thermal wind poleward of the SWJ. It also reduces atmospheric static stability aloft and converges the EMF on the poleward side of the climatological SWJ. Enhanced meridional temperature gradient and EMF convergence on the poleward side push the SWJ northward. Results from further mathematical analysis indicate that thermal forced and eddy‐driven zonal wind components account for 72% and 28% of the shift distance, respectively. In addition to elucidating the relative importance of thermal and EMF forcings, this study emphasizes the critical role of the subtropical warming driven by the intensified local descending branch of the Hadley circulation in shifting the zonal‐mean SWJ.