Analyzing the Impact of Land Cover Changes on Spatio-Temporal Temperature Dynamics in the Kara Region of Togo

Abstract

This comprehensive study delves into the intricate interplay between temperature trends and land cover dynamics in the Kara region, offering robust insights into the evolving climate and environmental patterns. Employing the Mann-Kendall trend test, our analysis reveals a statistically significant and consistent warming trend over the study period. The observed low p-values, positive Tau values, and upward-sloping regression lines emphasize the urgent need for proactive measures to address the climate-related challenges faced by the region. Simultaneously, a meticulous correlation analysis explores the relationships between land surface temperature (LST) and key land metrics- farms, barelands, built-ups, forests, and water bodies. Farmlands exhibit a noteworthy and statistically significant negative correlation of −0.74 with LST (p < 0.05), indicating a cooling influence and supported by a substantial 43.8% predictive power. Conversely, barelands and built-ups demonstrate strong positive correlations of 0.89 and 0.78, respectively, with LST both statistically significant at the 95% confidence level (p < 0.05), emphasizing their considerable warming impact. Forests and water bodies, with moderate negative correlations of −0.65 and −0.54, maintain statistical significance (p < 0.05), indicating their role in temperature moderation, supported by 8.5% and 13% significance. The inclusion of Sen’s slope values further enriches the analysis, providing quantitative insights into the rate of temperature change. The positive slope values underscore the increasing trend in temperatures over each respective decade. The observed statistical significances, Tau values, and Sen’s slope values accentuate the importance of these relationships for effective land management and environmental planning. Recognizing the cooling influence of farmlands suggests their potential use in strategic urban planning to mitigate temperature increases. Conversely, the warming impact of barelands and built-ups emphasizes the need for sustainable urban development practices to counteract rising temperatures in urbanized regions. Additionally, the cooling influence of forests and water bodies underscores their crucial role in temperature moderation.