Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Research Articles

Short-term wind speed prediction of wind farm based on TSO-VMD-BiLSTM

Aiming at the random and intermittent characteristics of wind speed, a short-term wind speed prediction (SWSP) method based on TSO-VMD-BiLSTM is proposed in this article. Firstly, open-source historical data from a certain region in 2022, including wind speed, direction, pressure, and temperature is analyzed. The data is processed through variational mode decomposition (VMD) to fully extract feature data from historical wind speed records. Secondly, taking historical wind speed, direction, pressure, and temperature as inputs and wind speed as output, a SWSP model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) network is constructed. Thirdly, the tuna swarm optimization (TSO) algorithm is utilized for parameters optimization, and a bi-directional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network is incorporated to enhance prediction accuracy for micrometeorological parameters. The proposed TSO-VMD-BiLSTM model is validated through comparison with other models, demonstrating its higher accuracy with the maximum absolute error of only 2.52 m/s, the maximum root mean square error of 0.81, the maximum mean absolute error of only 0.54, and the maximum mean absolute percentage error of 6.89%.

A wind speed forecasting model using nonlinear auto-regressive model optimized by the hybrid chaos-cloud salp swarm algorithm

Wind energy forecasting is significantly affected by the strong volatility, intermittency and variability of the wind speed sequence itself. Therefore, to improve forecast accuracy and stability, based on nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) and the hybrid chaos-cloud salp swarm algorithm (CC-SSA), a short-term wind speed prediction method is proposed. Firstly, to reduce the complexity of the original wind speed data and generate subcomponents with different patterns and low complexity, a mixed modal decomposition method is carried out by combining variational modal decomposition (VMD) based on Pearson correlation coefficient and generalized S-transform (GST) based on adaptive sample entropy. Therefore, the complementary advantages of different mode decompositions are obtained by combining the two different subcomponents into a mixed component. Secondly, by using cloud model and chaotic map, the improved CC-SSA algorithm is proposed to improve the convergence performance of salp swarm algorithm (SSA). Finally, by using CC-SSA algorithm to optimize the weights of NARX, the CC-SSA-NARX forecasting model is established to predict wind speed. The experimental results show that for the 1-Step, 2-Step, and 3-Step datasets of the actual wind speed in the studied region, the MAE, MAPE, RMSE, and R2 of the CC-SSA-NARX model are 0.23, 6 %, 0.27, and 0.97 respectively. The proposed model present the highest prediction index among the other 7 comparative models, showing high accuracy and generalization ability in short-term wind speed prediction, it can provide a certain reference for enhancing the stability of wind power generation and promoting the sustainable development of the wind power industry to some extent.

Analysis of short-term wind speed variation, trends and prediction: A case study of Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract Purpose The purpose of this research article is to analyze the short-term wind speed and develop a framework model to overcome the challenges in the wind power industry. Design/Methodology/Approach Real data with a case study of wind speed is presented to illustrate the advantages of this new wind speed analytical framework. Hourly measurements of wind speed are observed, and the experiments are conducted using tools such as ANOVA, control charts, trend analysis, and predictive models. The August month data for over 13 years from modern era retrospective-analysis for research and applications (MERRA) National aeronautics and space administration (NASA) for Coimbatore and Erode locations in Tamil Nadu, India, have been used. The results were considered for the study to understand the wind speed data and the implementation of new wind power projects in India. Findings The essence of the proposed wind speed analytical framework is its flexible approach, which enables the effective integration of wind firms’ individual requirements by developing tailor-made analytical evaluations. Originality/Value This article derives the wind speed analytical framework with the application of statistical tools and machine learning algorithms.

A new two-stage decomposition and integrated hybrid model for short-term wind speed prediction

Accurate wind speed prediction is of essential importance for the stability and safe operation of power systems. Given the complexity of wind speed sequence, this paper proposed a new two-stage decomposition and integrated hybrid model to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. A two-stage decomposition method combining robust local mean decomposition (RLMD), sample entropy (SE) and variational modal decomposition (VMD) was used to decompose the wind speed signal in the data preprocessing stage. Firstly, the wind speed signal was decomposed into various components by RLMD, and the complexity of each component was calculated using the SE to classify them into random, detail component and trend component. Then, a secondary decomposition of the random component with the highest SE was performed using the VMD. In the prediction stage, two different prediction models were used for prediction depending on the smoothness of each component. Stochastic configuration networks (SCN) was used to predict the detail and trend components with relatively smoothness. Echo state network (ESN) was used to predict the components of the secondary decomposition. Finally, the actual wind speed data were compared by different prediction models, which illustrated that the prediction method proposed in this paper had good prediction accuracy and generalizability.

Enhancing short-term wind speed prediction based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network with AOA-optimized VMD

Wind speed prediction is a crucial aspect in the utilization of wind energy. In this paper, a wind speed prediction model based on an outlier-robust ensemble deep random vector functional link network (ORedRVFL) and arithmetic optimization algorithm-optimized variational mode decomposition (AOA-VMD) is designed. First, the penalty factor and the number of mode decompositions of VMD are optimized using the AOA algorithm and the original data are decomposed using the optimized VMD. Then the decomposed data is predicted using the ensemble deep random vector functional link network (edRVFL) model. The edRVFL uses rich intermediate features for the final decision, which can make the final result closer to the real data. In order to strengthen the anti-interference ability to the outliers, this paper robustly improves the edRVFL model, and the improved model is called ORedRVFL. ORedRVFL reduces the impact of outliers by introducing regularization and norm to balance the relationship between training error and weights. The experiments have proved that the model proposed in this paper outperforms other models in terms of anti-interference ability and prediction accuracy.

Twin proximal support vector regression with heteroscedastic Gaussian noise

Twin proximal support vector regression, a novel approach, merges twin support vector regression (TSVR) with proximal support vector regression (PSVR) for regression analysis. Classical PSVR and TSVR assume that the data noise follows a homoscedastic Gaussian distribution with zero mean. However, in the real world, such as short-term wind speed prediction and wind farm power generation prediction, noise tends to follow a heteroscedastic Gaussian distribution with zero mean. Therefore, based on the aforementioned model framework and added the heteroscedastic noise feature, we develop a novel regression model named the twin proximal support vector regression model with heteroscedastic Gaussian noise (TPSVR-HGN). The Augment Lagrange multiplier approach is used to solve the proposed TPSVR-HGN model. On the artificial dataset and the real world dataset, compared with recent advanced models, the prediction accuracy of the TPSVR-HGN model has been improved by about 7% and 11% respectively. As the results of this experiment indicate, our method is effective and feasible.

Short-Term Probabilistic Wind Speed Predictions Integrating Multivariate Linear Regression and Generative Adversarial Network Methods

The precise forecasting of wind speeds is critical to lessen the harmful impacts of wind fluctuations on power networks and aid in merging wind energy into the grid system. However, prior research has predominantly focused on point forecasts, often overlooking the uncertainties inherent in the prediction accuracy. For this research, we suggest a new approach for forecasting wind speed intervals (PI). Specifically, the actual wind speed series are initially procured, and the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition coupled with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) method decomposes the actual wind speed series into constituent numerous mode functions. Furthermore, a generative adversarial network (GAN) is utilized to achieve the wind speed PI in conjunction with the multivariate linear regression method. To confirm the effectiveness of the suggested model, four datasets are selected. The validation results suggest that this suggested model attains a superior PI accuracy compared with those of numerous benchmark techniques. In the context of PI of dataset 4, the PINAW values show improvements of 68.06% and 32.35% over the CEEMDAN-CNN and VMD-GRU values in single-step forecasting, respectively. In conclusion, the proposed model excels over the counterpart models by exhibiting diminished a PINAW and CWC, while maintaining a similar PICP.

A short-term wind speed prediction method utilizing rolling decomposition and time-series extension to avoid information leakage

ABSTRACT The accuracy of wind speed prediction is crucial for the efficient operation and scheduling of power grids. In recent years, many wind speed prediction methods have been proposed, but the results have always been unsatisfactory, and the model accuracy in experimental testing has always been overestimated. This study focuses on the problem of information leakage caused by the decomposition of the test and general training sets in traditional wind speed prediction methods. Using the original model without decomposition as the standard and the mean average (P MAE ) and mean squared (P MSE ) errors as evaluation metrics, the overestimation degree of information leakage on the model accuracy was quantified. The results show that when the test set is decomposed together, the accuracy of the model is significantly overestimated. Specifically, the overestimation of P MAE ranges from 40% to 55%, and that of P MSE is from 65% to 85%. In addition, a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) – rolling decomposition (RD) – convolutional neural network (CNN) – bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) – attention mechanism (AM) model based on the RD method was proposed. First, SSA was used to denoise the wind speed sequence, and then RD was performed on the original sequence to provide input vectors for the neural network model. Then, the CNN – BiGRU – AM hybrid neural network module predicted the wind speed sequence. Finally, to suppress the impact of boundary effects on the model accuracy, a time-series extension strategy based on neural networks was incorporated into the model. An example analysis indicates that the SSA – RD – CNN – BiGRU – AM model can avoid information leakage compared with other traditional models.

Interpretable wind speed forecasting with meteorological feature exploring and two-stage decomposition

Wind speed plays a pivotal role in ensuring the stability of power grid operations. However, the inherent high volatility and non-stationarity of wind patterns pose significant challenges to achieving accurate predictions. To tackle this issue and enhance the interpretability of existing wind speed prediction models, this study proposes an innovative short-term wind speed prediction model that combines two-stage decomposition, meteorological data feature engineering, adaptive differential evolution with optional external archive (JADE) algorithm, and temporal fusion transformers (TFT). To begin, the wind speed data is subjected to decomposition using improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (IEEMD), yielding multiple eigenmode functions. Subsequently, the nonlinear decomposition subsequence undergoes further decomposition into multiple submodes via empirical wavelet transform (EWT), followed by the careful screening of nonlinear quadratic decomposition submodes. Additionally, meteorological features are ingeniously reconstructed into combined and statistical meteorological features, enhancing the effectiveness of input features. Next, the hyperparameters of the TFT are meticulously optimized using the powerful JADE algorithm. Empirical results unequivocally demonstrate that the IEEMD-EWT-JADE-TFT model achieves remarkably high prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, this interpretative experimental process and its results chart a novel path for decision-makers seeking reliable wind speed forecasting processes and outcomes.

A wind speed forcasting model based on rime optimization based VMD and multi-headed self-attention-LSTM

Due to the nonlinearity, fluctuation, and intermittency of wind speed, its accurate prediction is essential for improving efficiency in wind power operation systems. In this regard, a hybrid model that combines the rime optimization algorithm (RIME), variational mode decomposition (VMD), multi-headed self-attention (MSA) mechanism and long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed for wind speed prediction. First, the number of modes and VMD penalty parameter are optimized with RIME, the optimized parameters are brought into the VMD to decompose the raw wind speeds, and a Lagrange multiplier and quadratic penalty function are introduced to obtain the input series. Then, a LSTM short-term wind speed prediction model is constructed based on the MSA mechanism and solved for the hidden states and weights of each layer of attention in the model. Finally, a ReLU activation function is used to activate the hidden states of the LSTM model, and a weighted sum vector is used as the final sequence representation, which is inputted to the output layer for specific prediction to obtain the short-term wind speed prediction results. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, wind speed data from four wind farms in Ningxia, China, and two sets of wind speed data from an M2 tower in the USA are selected, and 19 models are built to compare the performance of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model outperforms other models on all datasets in terms of all five performance metrics, with smaller errors and higher prediction accuracy.

An Ensemble Approach to Short-Term Wind Speed Predictions Using Stochastic Methods, Wavelets and Gradient Boosting Decision Trees

Considering that wind power is proportional to the cube of the wind speed variable, which is highly random, complex power grid management tasks have arisen as a result. Wind speed prediction in the short term is crucial for load dispatch planning and load increment/decrement decisions. The chaotic intermittency of speed is often characterised by inherent linear and nonlinear patterns, as well as nonstationary behaviour; thus, it is generally difficult to predict it accurately and efficiently using a single linear or nonlinear model. In this study, wavelet transform (WT), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), extreme gradient boosting trees (XGBoost), and support vector regression (SVR) are combined to predict high-resolution short-term wind speeds obtained from three Southern African Universities Radiometric Network (SAURAN) stations: Richtersveld (RVD); Central University of Technology (CUT); and University of Pretoria (UPR). This hybrid model is termed WT-ARIMA-XGBoost-SVR. In the proposed hybrid, the ARIMA component is employed to capture linearity, while XGBoost captures nonlinearity using the wavelet decomposed subseries from the residuals as input features. Finally, the SVR model reconciles linear and nonlinear predictions. We evaluated the WT-ARIMA-XGBoost-SVR’s efficacy against ARIMA and two other hybrid models that substitute XGBoost with a light gradient boosting machine (LGB) component to form a WT-ARIMA-LGB-SVR hybrid model and a stochastic gradient boosting machine (SGB) to form a WT-ARIMA-SGB-SVR hybrid model. Based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and prediction interval normalised average width (PINAW), the proposed hybrid model provided more accurate and reliable predictions with less uncertainty for all three datasets. This study is critical for improving wind speed prediction reliability to ensure the development of effective wind power management strategies.

Short-term wind speed forecasts through hybrid model based on improved variational mode decomposition

ABSTRACT Scientific and accurate wind predictions are the basis for exploiting and utilizing wind energy. Combining the VMD and KELM, this research proposes a new hybrid model to capture the pattern of wind speed change, the parameters of which are optimized by the Spotted Hyena Optimizer(SHO) and Seagull Optimization Algorithm(SOA), respectively. The VMD is optimized by the SHO to achieve the purpose of adaptive decomposition of historical wind speed time series. After that, the parameters of the KELM are optimized by the SOA. Then, the decomposed wind speed series is input into the optimized KELM. The output prediction Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs) is added up to obtain the short-term wind speed prediction results. The measured wind speeds for four seasons were selected as the case study for the proposed model. The prediction results are compared with the measured wind speed series to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model. Besides, the prediction accuracy and stability of the proposed model are better than traditional prediction models, with stronger performance and lower computational cost. The results of case studies indicate that the proposed model can satisfy the need for actual applications.

Forecasting model for short-term wind speed using robust local mean decomposition, deep neural networks, intelligent algorithm, and error correction

Wind power generation has aroused widespread concern worldwide. Accurate prediction of wind speed is very important for the safe and economic operation of the power grid. This paper presents a short-term wind speed prediction model which includes data decomposition, deep learning, intelligent algorithm optimization, and error correction modules. First, the robust local mean decomposition (RLMD) is applied to the original wind speed data to reduce the non-stationarity of the data. Then, the salp swarm algorithm (SSA) is used to determine the optimal parameter combination of the bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) to ensure prediction quality. In order to eliminate the predictable components of the error further, a correction module based on the improved salp swarm algorithm (ISSA) and deep extreme learning machine (DELM) is constructed. The exploration and exploitation capability of the original SSA is enhanced by introducing a crazy operator and dynamic learning strategy, and the input weights and thresholds in the DELM are optimized by the ISSA to improve the generalization ability of the model. The actual data of wind farms are used to verify the advancement of the proposed model. Compared with other models, the results show that the proposed model has the best prediction performance. As a powerful tool, the developed forecasting system is expected to be further used in the energy system.

Wind Energy Assessment in Forested Regions Based on the Combination of WRF and LSTM-Attention Models

In recent years, the energy crisis has become increasingly severe, and global attention has shifted towards the development and utilization of wind energy. The establishment of wind farms is gradually expanding to encompass forested regions. This paper aims to create a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model suitable for simulating wind fields in forested terrains, combined with a long short-term time (LSTM) neural network enhanced with attention mechanisms. The simulation focuses on capturing wind characteristics at various heights, short-term wind speed prediction, and wind energy assessment in forested areas. The low-altitude observational data are obtained from the flux tower within the study area, while high-altitude data are collected using mobile radar. The research findings indicate that the WRF simulations using the YSU boundary layer scheme and MM5 surface layer scheme are applicable to forested terrains. The LSTM model with attention mechanisms exhibits low prediction errors for short-term wind speeds at different heights. Furthermore, based on the WRF simulation results, a wind energy assessment is conducted for the study area, demonstrating abundant wind energy resources at the 150 m height in forested regions. This provides valuable support for the site selection in wind farm development.

A short-term wind speed prediction method based on the BLS–RVM hybrid model

Abstract The study introduces a novel approach to short-term wind speed forecasting, which amalgamates statistical and machine learning techniques through the utilization of a hybrid model consisting of the broad learning system (BLS) and the relevance vector machine (RVM), to account for the nonstationary characteristics of wind speed data. Firstly, the initial wind speed time series is preprocessed using singular spectrum analysis to achieve noise reduction. Subsequently, the denoised wind speed time series is predicted using generalized learning system (BLS), and the prediction error is obtained. Finally, the prediction error of BLS is further predicted using RVM, and the final prediction result is obtained by combining it with the prediction results of BLS. By integrating multiple algorithms, this novel wind speed forecasting hybrid model improves prediction accuracy and can adapt to different wind speed characteristics and complex wind speed fluctuations. Through a case study, we find that this model outperforms other comparative models in terms of prediction, fully demonstrating its superiority.

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid model that integrates PSO-LSSVM and XGBoost

Abstract A groundbreaking method is proposed to mitigate the impact of unpredictable fluctuations in wind velocity on wind power generation. This innovative approach integrates the particle swarm optimization (PSO)-least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and XGBoost models in a harmonious manner. Initially, the raw wind speed data is subjected to wavelet threshold denoising to reduce noise and volatility. For short-term wind speed prediction, a PSO-LSSVM-XGBoost model is introduced. After the initial wind speed sequence undergoes wavelet threshold denoising, the enhanced sequence is forecasted using the LSSVM model, with its hyperparameters optimized through the PSO algorithm. The errors, obtained by subtracting the predicted values from the original data, are compensated using XGBoost. The final forecast results combine the rectified error data with the initial projected results. Experimental findings demonstrate the model’s remarkable capability to enhance prediction performance and accuracy.

Complex-valued artificial hummingbird algorithm for global optimization and short-term wind speed prediction

Environmental pollution and energy depletion have spurred the exploration of renewable energy sources. Wind energy, with its sustainability and eco-friendliness, stands out as a competitive option. However, its effectiveness relies on accurately predicting the fluctuating wind speeds, necessitating ongoing research in this area. In order to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction, this article presents the first Complex-valued version of the Artificial Hummingbird Algorithm (CAHA), which utilizes the idea of doubles to increase the initial population diversity and enhance the algorithm's performance. Additionally, the article employs the CAHA to optimize the parameters of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This marks the first application of the hybrid model to address the short-term wind speed prediction problem. The experiments begin with a performance evaluation of CAHA using the CEC2022 test set. Then, the CAHA is employed to optimize the parameters of six distinct ANNs to select the ANN model that can produce the best prediction result when synergized with CAHA. The results determine that the hybrid model based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) exhibits the best prediction performance. Furthermore, the performance of CAHA is compared with other classical optimization algorithms in short-term wind speed prediction problems based on ANFIS. Statistical results show that the ANFIS-CAHA model significantly improves the accuracy of short-term wind speed prediction, making it a potent tool for the integration of wind energy into smart grid engineering.

Enhancing rock and soil hazard monitoring in open-pit mining operations through ultra-short-term wind speed prediction

Wind speed exacerbates challenges associated with rock stability, introducing factors such as heightened erosion and the possibility of particle loosening. This increased sensitivity to erosion can result in material displacement, thereby compromising the overall stability of rock layers within the open-pit mining site. Therefore, accurate wind speed predictions are crucial for understanding the impact on rock stability, ensuring the safety and efficiency of open-pit mining operations. While most existing studies on wind speed prediction primarily focus on making overall predictions from the entire wind speed sequence, with limited consideration for the stationarity characteristics of the sequence, This paper introduces a novel approach for effective monitoring and early warning of geotechnical hazards. Our proposed method involves dividing wind speed data into stationary and non-stationary segments using the sliding window average method within the threshold method, validated by the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Subsequently, we use temporal convolutional networks (TCN) with dilated causal convolution and long short-term memory to predict the stationary segment of wind speed, effectively improving prediction accuracy for this segment. For the non-stationary segment, we implement complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) to reduce sequence complexity, followed by TCN with an attention mechanism (ATTENTION) to forecast wind speed one step ahead. Finally, we overlay the predictions of these two segments to obtain the final prediction. Our proposed model, tested with data from an open-pit mining area in western China, achieved promising results with an average absolute error of 0.14 knots, mean squared error of 0.05 knots2, and root mean squared error of 0.20 knots. These findings signify a significant advancement in the accuracy of short-term wind speed prediction. This advancement not only enables the rapid assessment and proactive response to imminent risks but also contributes to geotechnical hazard monitoring in open-pit mining operations.

Short-term wind speed prediction based on improved Hilbert–Huang transform method coupled with NAR dynamic neural network model

Wind energy, as a renewable energy source, offers the advantage of clean and pollution-free power generation. Its abundant resources have positioned wind power as the fastest-growing and most widely adopted method of electricity generation. Wind speed stands as a key characteristic when studying wind energy resources. This study primarily focuses on predictive models for wind speed in wind energy generation. The intense intermittency, randomness, and uncontrollability of wind speeds in wind power generation present challenges, leading to high development costs and posing stability challenges to power systems. Consequently, scientifically forecasting wind speed variations becomes imperative to ensure the safety of wind power equipment, maintain grid integration of wind power, and ensure the secure and stable operation of power systems. This holds significant guiding value and significance for power production scheduling institutions. Due to the complexity of wind speed, scientifically predicting its fluctuations is crucial for ensuring the safety of wind power equipment, maintaining wind power integration systems, and ensuring the secure and stable operation of power systems. This research aims to enhance the accuracy and stability of wind speed prediction, thereby reducing the costs associated with wind power generation and promoting the sustainable development of renewable energy. This paper utilizes an improved Hilbert–Huang transform (HHT) using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) to overcome issues in the traditional empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, such as component mode mixing and white noise interference. Such an approach not only enhances the efficiency of wind speed data processing but also better accommodates strong stochastic and nonlinear characteristics. Furthermore, by employing mathematical analytical methods to compute weights for each component, a dynamic neural network model is constructed to optimize wind speed time series modeling, aiming for a more accurate prediction of wind speed fluctuations. Finally, the optimized HHT-NAR model is applied in wind speed forecasting within the Xinjiang region, demonstrating significant improvements in reducing root mean square errors and enhancing coefficient of determination. This model not only showcases theoretical innovation but also exhibits superior performance in practical applications, providing an effective predictive tool within the field of wind energy generation.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on a New Combined Model

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on a New Combined Model