Short-term wind speed forecasts through hybrid model based on improved variational mode decomposition

Abstract

ABSTRACT Scientific and accurate wind predictions are the basis for exploiting and utilizing wind energy. Combining the VMD and KELM, this research proposes a new hybrid model to capture the pattern of wind speed change, the parameters of which are optimized by the Spotted Hyena Optimizer(SHO) and Seagull Optimization Algorithm(SOA), respectively. The VMD is optimized by the SHO to achieve the purpose of adaptive decomposition of historical wind speed time series. After that, the parameters of the KELM are optimized by the SOA. Then, the decomposed wind speed series is input into the optimized KELM. The output prediction Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs) is added up to obtain the short-term wind speed prediction results. The measured wind speeds for four seasons were selected as the case study for the proposed model. The prediction results are compared with the measured wind speed series to verify the accuracy and reliability of the model. Besides, the prediction accuracy and stability of the proposed model are better than traditional prediction models, with stronger performance and lower computational cost. The results of case studies indicate that the proposed model can satisfy the need for actual applications.