Short-term Thinking Research Articles

How to benefit from the risk assessment process: Analyzing the threats that pose a threat to the national security of the state

This essay focuses on the recent evolution of national security assessments (NSAs) and national security strategies (NSSs) and evaluates how best to make use of them. While accepting that NSAs are a fairly novel development that indicates more joined-up thinking at the government level, they remain limited for two primary reasons. First, they have tended to be laden with cognitive bias, often reflecting near-term security interests and short-term thinking. Second, there is often a range of implementation problems related to moving from the assessment of risk to the realization of effective security policy. As such, truly benefitting from these risk assessments requires that policymakers counter cognitive biases and develop policy processes that are able to move from the identification of threats to a policy response.

Leverage points for the uptake of organic food production and consumption in the United Kingdom

Organic food systems are recognised as an important component in meeting United Nations’ (UN) Sustainable Development Goals. A leverage points perspective can help to identify approaches which have the potential to facilitate transformative systemic change towards organic and sustainable farming. Using fuzzy cognitive maps developed from expert stakeholder opinions, we modelled a system of drivers of organic food production and consumption in the United Kingdom, according to the UN Sustainability Assessment of Food and Agriculture systems framework. The most influential concepts in the uptake of organic systems were related to system norms and values and social structures, such as short-term economic thinking, landowner engagement, and relationships with certification bodies. However, in a scenario analysis, organic stakeholders identified relatively shallower leverage points as more likely to change under a sustainable future, resulting in limited systemic change. This demonstrates the need for policies targeting system norms, values and social structures relating to food systems to facilitate the transition to organic and sustainable farming.

Dissecting behavioral inertia in shaping different resident participation behaviors in neighborhood regeneration: A quantitative behavioral experiment

Research on resident participation in neighborhood regeneration provides valuable insights for urban policymakers in environmental governance. While previous studies have extensively examined various influencing factors, they often neglect the impact of behavioral inertia. To address this gap, this study conducts a behavioral experiment to quantitatively assess the presence and impact of behavioral inertia on residents' governance and financial participation behaviors. A total of 576 valid survey questionnaires were collected, and conditional logit model and ordered logit model were utilized for analysis. The study reveals that behavioral inertia is indeed observable in residents' governance participation and financial participation behaviors. Furthermore, the findings underscore distinct drivers of behavioral inertia for these two types of participation behaviors, with emotional reactions predominantly influencing governance participation, while short-term thinking largely shapes financial participation. Theoretically, this study uses the innovative concept of “behavioral inertia” to offer a new explanatory framework for aspects of behavior that cannot be solely explained by the attributes of regeneration plans. Furthermore, the behavioral experiments utilized in this study exemplify how the research framework of behavioral science can be applied to the study of urban governance in a broad context internationally. Practically, the research findings provide valuable insights for urban policymakers to tailor measures aimed at promoting resident participation and fostering sustainable urban development.

Futures empathy for foresight research and practice

Foresight methods help us to think about the future and overcome a bias toward short-term thinking in decision making. However, many approaches to investigating the future tend to leave implicit how individuals involved in the interventions relate to the present and to the future in practice and over time. To address this gap, our study highlights the affordances of two methodologies —Scenario Planning and Future Design. In a pilot study combining these methods, we report the results of the novel hybridized approach applied in strategic planning workshops across four corporations. Initial reflections and learnings from the pilot case study and literature review helps to build understandings of the practical and theoretical workings of the methodological innovation. By investigating this combination of foresight methodologies, this research opens up new ways for thinking about futuring and proposes a theory of Futures Empathy. Futures Empathy harnesses a person’s capacity for empathy in a novel way by applying it toward a future context. It consists of an iterative double looping process between self and a not yet existent future. Through imagination and reflection, foresight methods that build Futures Empathy can enhance personal connection and integration with a longer time horizon, thus overcoming presentism. By proposing a theory of Futures Empathy, we hope to contribute to better present and future relating in practice and over time across a multitude of foresight interventions.

Short-Term Versus Long-Term Thinking in Corporations and Markets: A Half-Decade Update

Short-Term Versus Long-Term Thinking in Corporations and Markets: A Half-Decade Update

Is Long-Term Thinking a Trap?

This provocation critiques the notion of long-term thinking and the claims of its proponents that it will help address failures in dominant conceptions of time, particularly in regard to environmental crises. Drawing on analyses of the Clock of the Long Now and Kim Stanley Robinson’s The Ministry for the Future, the article suggests that we be more wary of the concept’s use in what we might call chronowashing. Like the more familiar greenwashing, where environmental issues are hidden by claims to be addressing the problem, the article explores how these examples of long-term thinking distract from extractivism, racism, and environmental injustice, making it harder to address the complexities involved. In particular, the article discusses examples where long-term thinking provides a veneer of environmental concern that actually disconnects from the work of building more equitable forms of relation. As a contrast, the article’s author asks: What is lost when we diagnose a problem as arising due to short-term thinking and propose long-term thinking as the solution? Against chronowashed environmental time, the author argues for more complex approaches that explicitly take into account the temporalities of inequality, political organization, ethical responsibilities and much else. The article engages with approaches to time that foreground the work needed to create time and move ethically within it, including Charles W. Mills’s white time and Kyle Powys Whyte’s kinship time. The author suggests that a stronger emphasis on the temporality of community, solidarity, and coalition—versus what James Hatley and Deborah Bird Rose have described as temporal narcissism—can better foreground the kinds of work that needs to be done, particularly by those with privilege.

Masturbation, End of the World & Self-Control, a New Beginning

This paper changes the status-quo beliefs about masturbation by modern-day science by showing us the downside of our short-term thinking by highlighting the present state of affairs in this world over the widespread use of masturbation. It also shows that if we continue what we are doing now then the day won’t be far when the entire planet is destroyed by the unending fire of human lust that will burn everything in its path and the great human civilization will end soon. The paper also shows us how to reverse this impending catastrophe and re-usher in the happiness state of life on this blue planet.

Cerebral white matter burden is linked to cognitive function in patients undergoing hemodialysis

Introduction Chronic kidney disease is related to neurodegeneration and structural changes in the brain which might lead to cognitive decline. The Fazekas scale used for assessing white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) was associated with poor cognitive performance. Therefore, this study investigated the associations between the mini-mental status examination (MMSE), Montreal cognitive assessment (MoCA), cognitive abilities screening instrument (CASI), and Fazekas scale in patients under hemodialysis (HD). Methods The periventricular (PV) WMHs and deep WMHs (DWMHs) in brain magnetic resonance images of 59 patients under dialysis were graded using the Fazekas scale. Three cognition function tests were also performed, then multivariable ordinal regression and logistic regression were used to identify the associations between cognitive performance and the Fazekas scale. Results There were inverse associations between the three cognitive function tests across the Fazekas scale of PVWMHs (p = .037, .006, and .008 for MMSE, MoCA, and CASI, respectively), but the associations were attenuated in the DWMHs group. In CASI, significant differences were identified in short-term memory, mental manipulation, abstract thinking, language, spatial construction, and name fluency in the PVWMHs group. However, DWMHs were only significantly correlated with abstract thinking and short-term memory. Conclusion An inverse correlation existed between the Fazekas scale, predominantly in PVWMHs, and cognition in patients undergoing HD. The PVWMHs were associated with cognitive performance assessed by MMSE, MoCA, and CASI, as well as with subdomains of CASI such as memory, language and name fluency in patients undergoing HD.

Developing voluntary attention in primary school children as part of sensorimotor integration program

Introduction. In the modern world, rapid development of IT and large volumes of information make attention a leading cognitive process which ensures a student’s learning success. The study aims to research the impact of sensorimotor integration programs on attention development in primary school children. Materials and methods. The study was based in the municipal autonomous educational institution ‘Secondary educational school No. 150’ in Krasnoyarsk (Russian Federation) with 43 children of primary school age (2nd grade). The Bourdon test determined the level of attention properties development in children before and after the experiment. Pearson's chi-squared test was used to statistically process the data. Results. A special methodology was designed for building a curriculum on sensorimotor integration for primary schoolchildren, aimed at developing voluntary attention. The training program comprises cycles of exercises for developing and strengthening the abilities of a specific attention function. A methodology was created for pedagogically assessing the effectiveness of testing a complex sensorimotor integration program meant to develop the basic properties of attention: concentration, stability and volume. After the formative experiment, repeated diagnostics revealed statistically significant progress in all these properties in the experimental group compared with the control group at a significance level of α < 0.05. Conclusion. Along with the development of attention properties indicators in primary school children, the experiment revealed an improvement in indicators of other mental functions, namely, short-term and long-term memory and thinking. The new program for developing attention through sensorimotor integration can be recommended to improve the learning processes for children with physical and developmental disabilities.

The tragedy of the time horizon

Future-orientated thinking needs to be strengthened in planning and policy making to respond to the challenges posed by ‘presentism’. Despite the inherent uncertainty of the future, effective planning and policy making require the ability to envision potential future developments and implications of today´s decisions. The ’tragedy of the time horizon’ emphasises the detrimental effects of short-term thinking on various domains, including the environment, economic stability, and social equity. It encompasses the multifaceted challenges posed by short-term thinking and the neglect of long-term consequences. To combat this, we must boost our future literacy, i.e. the capacity to imagine, read, and use the future, both at the individual and societal levels. Future literacy is vital for navigating uncertainty, making strategic decisions, embracing innovation, enhancing social resilience, and promoting sustainable development. This requires a collective effort to improve future literacy skills, foster imagination and creativity, and overcome the challenges of ‘the tyranny of now’. Envisioning positive futures is crucial for inspiring hope, collaboration, and informed decision-making,particularly in a rapidly changing world.

Maritime Transformable Area Systems

Transformable area systems (TASs) offer new possibilities for sustainable factory planning and development, notably as regards maritime structures. This is of relevance to factories of the future and could constitute a major influence in future factory planning and operation (i.e., the way in which factories are planned, implemented, transformed, relocated, used, and managed). Floating pontoon islands with solar systems already exist, and so much more is possible with similar but more complex structures. This article explains the basics of the TAS concept, assesses its potential, and discusses the future possibilities. It concludes that lack of knowledge and awareness about TASs and their potential is holding back their application in practice. Omnipresent short-term thinking and short-term profit expectations are further hurdles that are limiting the further development of TASs at present. TASs could nevertheless contribute to the improved functioning, sustainability, and future viability of factories, other structures, and their development.

Psychocorrective program aimed at recovery of cognitive productivity of persons with alcohol dependence syndrome.

The article presents data on the effectiveness of the psychocorrective program developed by the authors, aimed at improving the cognitive functioning of persons with alcohol dependence syndrome at the stage of active anti-alcohol treatment. The psychocorrective program is developed within the framework of an integrative psychotherapeutic approach, including the techniques of cognitive-behavioral therapy, body-oriented psychotherapy, art therapy, as well as mnemonic techniques used for the development of short-term memory, voluntary attention, and abstract thinking. It is shown that the use of methods of non-pharmacological correction of disorders of cognitive functions in patients of this category can contribute to the recovery of normative cognitive productivity, the formation of conditions for the optimization of therapeutic interaction, and the improvement of the quality of drug addiction treatment. Key words: alcohol dependence, cognitive disorders, rehabilitation of cognitive functions

Spirituality: A Path Towards Sustainable Human Resource Planning

Sustainability has become increasingly important in today's world, as societies face numerous challenges caused by rapid technological advancements, globalization, short-term thinking, and, therefore, the character of labour itself. While many companies around the globe concentrate on materialistic approaches to form a sustainable human resource plan and a stable workforce, the aspect of Spirituality often goes overlooked. This paper explores the connection between workplace spirituality and sustainable human resource planning, analyzing its implications over recent years. Workplace spirituality extends beyond faith and encompasses a broader sense of purpose, meaning, and interconnectedness. It involves recognizing and nurturing the spiritual dimensions of employees, fostering community, and aligning individual values with organizational goals ethically. By integrating Spirituality into the workplace, organizations can create a harmonious environment that promotes well-being, engagement, and sustainability. The pioneering study by Mitroff and Denton (1999) titled "A Study of Spirituality in the Workplace" sheds light on the influence of Spirituality on organizational outcomes. This paper explored Spirituality as a non-material benefit that an organization can imbibe in its staff to create a positive work culture. Past studies have tried to study the implication of Spirituality in HRM, but we have explored the long-term benefit of sustainability by reviewing the related papers. We strongly believe that people have started looking for non-monetary benefits, and Spirituality can be seen as a driver for motivation and satisfaction within the workforce.

Climate risk and future stock price crash: Evidence from U.S. firms

This study investigates the impact of climate risks on stock prices and explores the measures that corporate managers may take to stabilize their company's stock price in response to unexpected climate risks. We analyze a sample of U.S. firms from 1996 to 2022 and find that firms located in disaster-prone counties are associated with a higher risk of stock market crashes. The results indicate that firms exposed to climate risks are more likely to experience unexpected earnings and breaks in earnings strings. While earnings management can sometimes provide short-term benefits, it can also lead to long-term risks and negative consequences on stock price crashes. Moreover, mature firms and firms with higher CEO pay-performance sensitivity are more susceptible to stock market crashes. The findings suggest that climate risk can induce short-term thinking among managers, affecting market valuation. By shedding light on the complex relationship between climate risks and financial risks, this study can inform responsible investment strategies and corporate governance policies that promote transparency, accountability, and long-term value creation.

ENTERPRISE RESOURCE MANAGEMENT BASED ON "GREEN OFFICE" PRINCIPLES

The concept of the "green office" is an approach to enterprise resource management with environmental responsibility, aiming for harmony between business and nature. In this framework, enterprises take accountability for their environmental impacts and take measures to preserve it. Companies that align their operations with the principles of the green office utilize resources and energy more efficiently, reduce waste volumes within office spaces, and enhance their reputati on with consumers, clients, and partners. The principles of the "green office" are directed towards making office activities more environmentally responsible, diminishing negative impacts on the environment, and promoting sustainable development. Key principles of the "green office" concept include energy efficiency, social responsibility, the use of renewable energy sources, efficient water usage, emission reduction, promotion of sustainable transportation, and eco-friendly office management. Implementing the "green office" concept requires financial, infrastructural, human, and other resources for the successful adoption of green practices, following several sequential stages. Additionally, there are several potential barriers that may complicate the implementation of the green office concept in the enterprise: high implementation costs, lack of awareness and support from the staff, technical limitations, insufficient understanding of the benefits, bureaucratic obstacles, fear of change, uncertainty of standards, and short-term thinking. Overcoming these barriers may require the enterprise to adopt a specific strategy, an effective communication plan, and engage with employees to ensure support and understanding of the benefits of the "green office" concept at all levels. Implementing the green office concept is a crucial step for the enterprise, as it brings numerous advantages and positive outcomes for both the business itself and the environment. It enables businesses to actively participate in sustainable development, create a positive internal and external image, and contribute to the establishment of a more resilient and environmentally responsible business environment.

Planning for change, long term: The 100-year plan

This article draws on the place-based practice as research work of Associate Professor Anna Francis, to consider an alternative model for developing long-term approaches to creative community development. Francis’s research into the effects of having professional arts practitioners facilitate public-participatory art within community development and urban regeneration initiatives has led to specific types of impact: fostering community development and cohesion in underprivileged areas of Stoke-on-Trent; influencing local government policy; and developing new initiatives and cultures in social arts organisations. A key part of that work has focused on the development of The Portland Inn Project since 2015, a creative artist and community led regeneration initiative, in a deprived area of Stoke-on-Trent, supporting community members to make positive change and development, via an embedded and varied arts development programme. Since 2021, The Portland Inn Project has developed thinking and action around the development of a Community Led 100-year plan for the neighbourhood. The 100-year plan borrows from landscape architecture and design thinking to empower communities, funders and policy makers to resist short-term project-based thinking, and to begin to think more holistically and sustainably, which can have significant benefits, socially, politically and environmentally.

The relationship between daily positive future thinking and past-week suicidal ideation in youth: An experience sampling study.

Reduced positive future thinking has been associated with suicidal ideation and behavior in adults, and appears to be exacerbated by negative affect. Yet, this has received little attention in youth. Prior research has also focused on longer-term future thinking, e.g., months and years, and relied on lab-based assessments. Using the experience sampling method (ESM), we investigated whether short-term future thinking in daily life was associated with suicidal ideation in youth and explored the role of affect in the future thinking–suicidal ideation relationship. A community sample of N = 722 adolescent twins and their non-twin siblings completed ESM as part of the TwinssCan study (n = 55 with, and n = 667 without, past-week suicidal ideation). Participants completed self-report questionnaires, including on past-week suicidal ideation as part of the SCL-90. Subsequently, daily future thinking was assessed each morning for six days with ESM. To investigate the relationship between daily positive future thinking and past-week suicidal ideation, we estimated a mixed-effects linear regression model with a random intercept for participant, including age and sex as covariates. The relationship between daily positive future thinking, past-week suicidal ideation, and average positive and negative affect from the previous day was investigated by estimating two separate mixed-effects linear regression models (one for negative affect, one for positive affect), with a random intercept for participant, and random slopes for average positive and negative affect. Our results showed that participants reporting higher past-week suicidal ideation also reported significantly less daily positive future thinking during the ESM period, and this association remained significant when controlling for previous-day average positive and negative affect. Higher average positive affect from the previous day was significantly associated with higher positive future thinking. Although average negative affect from the previous day was associated with lower positive future thinking, this association was not statistically significant. Our findings indicate that short-term future thinking relates to suicidal ideation among a non-clinical sample of adolescents. Future research should investigate the directionality of the future thinking–suicidal ideation relationship, in order to investigate whether impaired future thinking may be an early warning signal for escalating suicidal ideation in youth.

Business strategies for small- and medium-sized tourism enterprises during COVID-19: a developing country case

PurposeIn this paper, the authors set out to explore how small- and medium-sized tourism enterprises (SMTEs) in a developing country (Turkey) are coping with economic and financial consequences of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It is also crucial to understand what kind of policymaking solutions will help them to successfully overcome it.Design/methodology/approachTo gather data, the authors interviewed SMTEs in the Bodrum area – one of the most elite and exciting destinations for foreign travelers in Turkey. Semi-structured interview method was used, and questions for data collection focused on three key areas: (1) impact of COVID-19 on SMTEs, especially in terms of cash flow and other problems, (2) government incentives and (3) business strategies to cope with the crisis.Findings(1) Even a year and a half into the pandemic, despite government relief efforts, vaccination programs, the easing of lockdown and travel restrictions, survival is still the main concern for SMTEs. (2) Although they do not have enough resources, these entrepreneurs have energy and motivation, are optimistic about the future and are investigating new opportunities by capitalizing on their “strategic flexibility”, an intrinsic strength of SMEs. (3) Recovery is going to take a long time, and government support, however crucial in the interim, cannot replace the pre-crisis conditions that are anxiously awaited by these businesses.Research limitations/implicationsOne of the main limitations of this study is that the gathered research data are localized to one destination in Turkey, the Bodrum area. In that respect, it is difficult to hypothesize the degree to which the resulting data can be generalized to other areas of Turkey and the rest of the world. Future work is required to provide greater insight into how to be prepared effectively for this type of crisis. Therefore, further research should be undertaken to investigate tourism and hospitality industry in the whole country and to compare findings to those of other cities and regions. An especially important issue for future research that would yield insight and practical implications worldwide is comparison of findings across countries.Practical implicationsThe impact of COVID-19 is challenging all SMTEs’ conventional business models. Each business needs to evaluate its own internal and external conditions, secure required financial resources necessary for survival and sustainable business strategies for post-COVID-19 era. Besides short-term survival thinking, they also look for long-term business strategies both saving, investing, innovation and diversification. They are also on the look-out to seize any new opportunities presenting themselves as well as for any additional governmental support.Originality/valueThis paper offers a systematic approach toward understanding the realities of SMTEs in the midst of crisis by focusing on their short-term survival and long-term sustainability responses against COVID-19. It also brings practical experiences of industry participants and opinions of industry experts to academicians, practitioners and policymakers, shedding light on challenges faced by SMTEs.

MAKING BUSINESS POLICIES AND STRATEGIES IN THE VUCA ERA WITH TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT: A LITERATURE REVIEW

Introduction. Entering the VUCA era, which stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity, is a business situation that leads to uncertainty and is volatile, causing anxiety among business leaders. Creating a business opportunity in the VUCA era requires a strategy owned by many individuals and companies. Being able to run a business in the short term in the VUCA era is not enough, every company certainly wants the business processes they run to be sustainable. So far, the pattern of business thinking is still dominated by short-term thinking. Companies need to innovate to ensure the sustainability of their business processes. Objective. To review the VUCA era and what strategies companies should do to face the VUCA era. Method. The method used is literature research using Elsevier, Science Direct, or other databases to identify the essential attribute of materials. There are 29 pieces of literature found in the database related to the topic. Result and Conclusion. To overcome VUCA era, it is necessary to apply some strategies like vision, understanding, clarity, and agility. If this solution applied, the company can produce innovations or breakthroughs that are getting better, it will also have a good impact on the company's future sustainability.

The Need for a Black Feminist Climate Justice

The Need for a Black Feminist Climate Justice