Short-term Changes Research Articles

Short-term changes in social role statuses across young adulthood and their relation to heavy drinking in a given month.

Young adulthood is a developmental period during which individuals experience shifts in their social roles in various domains, which coincides with a period of time that is also high risk for lifetime peaks in alcohol use. The current study examined age-related changes in heavy episodic drinking (HED) and high-intensity drinking (HID) and associations with short-term (i.e., monthly) variation in young adults' social roles over a 2.5-year period in a community sample of young adults who reported past-year alcohol use (N = 778, baseline age range 18-23). Results showed probabilities of past-month HED and HID changed in a nonlinear fashion across ages 18-26 with greater probabilities of use at younger ages. Most participants did not report being in the same social role status every sampled month, underscoring the presence of short-term role variation. Living with parents and being in a serious romantic relationship in a given month were negatively associated with past-month HED. Living with parents in a given month was also negatively associated with past-month HID. Being a 4-year college student and being employed full-time in a given month were not significantly related to either outcome. Findings provided partial evidence that monthly statuses were associated with heavy drinking. Several avenues for future research are described in light of the findings.

Exploring students’ perception of subjective food literacy: A model of educational practice

IntroductionLatest research showed that lower levels of food literacy led to poorer health outcomes and highlighted the importance of nutrition education to improve food literacy for the population. Although evidence at the global level exists, the scientific literature on food literacy in Romania is scarce; therefore, this article aims to explore the perception of subjective food literacy as an outcome of an educational model in a sample of university students from Romania. MethodsThe present study used a qualitative inductive approach using focus groups to explore the results from an educational “learning-by-doing” model regarding the perception of subjective food literacy. The sample consisted of 64 second-year students who participated in a class taught by one of the authors between October 2019 and February 2020 and later agreed to participate in the focus groups. All focus groups were audiotaped following participants’ permission and transcribed verbatim. Data was analyzed with the QSR Nvivo 12 Pro software package using an inductive thematic analysis. ResultsSeveral themes and sub-themes emerged from the focus groups discussing prior information of participants regarding nutrition, change in nutrition knowledge (information about plant protein, information about soy and soy products, information about sugar and its effects on health, and additional nutrition information), modified perception of nutrition and food, dietary habits, short-term behavior changes, and aspects that helped them to have more information about nutrition (construction of the health campaign, pre-testing materials, and support offered by the professors). All participants reported acquiring new information about food and nutrition, modified perceptions about nutritional habits, and even reported short-term behavioral change as an outcome of the educational model. ConclusionsEducational models using a learning-by-doing approach and combining formal and non-formal education can potentially affect students' subjective food literacy. Future research should explore university students' food literacy using evidence-based educational models.

Implications of Russia-Ukraine war on land surface temperature and air quality: long-term and short-term analysis.

The world is currently witnessing the military operations of Russia invading Ukraine, leading to missile bombing and shelling on various parts. Although the economic ill effects are more conspicuous and much talked about, the environmental impacts are grimmer and more devastating but ironically are less in the news. Hence, in this work, we focused on the environmental impact of the Russia-Ukraine war by quantifying the long-term(2001 to 2023) and short-term temperature changes using land surface temperature (LST) and air temperature (AT) as proxies and monitoring changes in air quality, mainly methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO2), between 2021 and 2022. We used NASA MODIS FIRMS fire points from 24th February 2022 to 08th September 2023 to prepare the heat map for identifying the regions heavily devastated by bombing. Thus, parts of Kiev, Lviv, Luhansk, Odesa, Donetsk, Kherson, etc., in Ukraine were chosen for assessing the LST, AT variations during the peak season of war along with analysis of long-term and short-term changes. We used MODIS Terra LST and Emissivity, ERA 5 AT, CH4, CO2 from AIRS and CO from Sentinel 5P. The results of the LST showed an average increase of around 2.32°C (2022-2023), 3.44°C (2021 and 2022) in parts of Ukraine and an increase of about 2°C from COVID time, whilst a decrease of about 1°C during COVID. This increase in LST will cause enhanced warming, thus changing the regional climate in a shorter time frame. A consistent upward trend in CH4, CO and CO2 is seen from 2019 to 2023. These heat waves and pollution will grip Ukraine and cause menace due to the cumulative effect of heat waves, changing climate and the aftermaths of war. This would be catastrophic as it might lead to a widespread impact on human health, agricultural yield and infrastructure, to name a few.

Abstract P217: Directionality of Associations Between Daily Physical Activity and Cognition Among Older Adults in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging

Physical activity is a modifiable risk factor for dementia. Associations between physical activity and cognition are likely bidirectional, as cognitive functions are required to initiate and perform activities. Understanding the directionality of these associations has potential implications for both dementia prevention and physical activity engagement. Yet, the directionality between cognitive function and free-living physical activity patterns is unclear. This study included 237 cognitively unimpaired older adults in the BLSA with cognitive test performance and ≥ 3 valid days of wrist accelerometry measured at 2 visits over an average of 1.8 (0.9-4.0) years. Cognitive domain factor scores were derived using confirmatory factor analysis. Accelerometry data were used to calculate daily physical activity patterns: 1) total activity counts (TAC), 2) time spent active, 3) time spent non-active, 4) active-to-sedentary-transition probability (ASTP), 5) mean active bout length, 6) sedentary-to-active transition probability (SATP), 7) mean non-active bout length. Bivariate latent change score models estimated directionality of associations between changes in cognitive factor scores and changes in daily physical activity patterns. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race, education, and number of comorbidities. Participants were on average 77 (60-96) years, 48% women, and 22% Black. After covariate adjustment, one SD higher in baseline TAC was associated with less memory decline (estimate = 0.089, SE = 0.045). One SD higher in baseline time spent non-active was associated with greater declines in language (estimate = -0.068, SE = 0.035), visuospatial processing (estimate = -0.079 SE = 0.034), and global cognition (estimate = -0.058, SE = 0.024). One SD higher in baseline ASTP was associated with greater declines in memory (estimate = -0.114, SE = 0.047) and visuospatial processing (estimate = -0.074, SE = 0.034), whereas mean active bout length was associated with less decline in these domains (memory: estimate = 0.121, SE = 0.046; visuospatial processing: estimate = 0.081, SE = 0.033). There were no associations with time spent active, SATP, or mean non-active bout length and changes in any cognitive factor score. Cognitive factor scores were not associated with changes in any activity pattern. Patterns relating to amount of daily activity, time spent sedentary, and probability of transitioning from active-to-sedentary states were primarily associated with changes in memory and visuospatial processing. This suggests increasing free-living movement or decreasing sedentary behavior might be related to short-term changes in cognition among older adults. Future studies are needed to determine causality of these associations and to evaluate directionality over longer periods of time.

Swash-Zone Formula Evaluation of Morphological Variation in Haeundae Beach, Korea

In this study, a swash-zone model, using Larson and Wamsley formula (LW07), was combined into the Telemac-2D model system to examine the performance of modeling swash-zone processes through comparisons with field observation data. The experimental site was the Haeundae Beach in South Korea where Typhoon Phanfone occurred in October 2014, and bathymetric surveys were performed before and after the typhoon. Hydrodynamic data were also measured to validate the modeled data. The performance of LW07 was tested by running the model in two modes, with and without LW07. First, the model was run to simulate the shoreline response to an imaginary coastal breakwater. The result showed a clear discrepancy between the two modes as the sediments were considerably cumulated behind the breakwater in the case with the swash-zone formula (LW07) in the wide range along the shoreline behind the breakwater, indicating that the sediments more actively and rapidly responded to the shadowing by the breakwater with LW07. The model was also run for a realistic case from August to October 2014, which included the typhoon’s period during 2–6 October. The results showed that the morphological changes at both ends of the beach in the swash zone were simulated with higher accuracy with LW07, supporting the effectiveness of LW07 in simulating the short-term morphological changes induced by the typhoon attack. In particular, the successful simulation of the sand accumulation at the end sides of the beach’s swash zone indicates that LW07 was effective in estimating not only the cross-shore transport but also longshore transport, which was likely due to the characteristics of LW07 that calculated sand transport in both directions. The enhanced modeling performance with LW07 was likely due to the adjustment of the sediment transport rate to the instantaneous changes in the local beach slope, which could successfully control the erosion/accretion process in the swash zone more realistically.

Monitoring the growth of social and emotional competence to guide practice decisions

To facilitate social and emotional learning (SEL) in schools, assessments must be suitable for progress monitoring, which includes being sensitive to short-term changes in students’ social and emotional competence (SEC) and providing useful and timely information to educators. This paper discusses evidence criteria to help determine whether an instrument is suitable for progress monitoring of student SEC. To illustrate how action-oriented research can help further guide the development of evidence standards and inform SEL practice in schools, the Devereux Student Strengths Assessment-mini (DESSA-mini) is highlighted through two empirical case studies. Data for both case studies are derived from a district-wide implementation of an evidence-based SEL program, Promoting Alternative THinking Strategies (PATHS), that used the DESSA-mini to assess the SEC of 7681 students in Grades K-5 at three time points over a school year. Multilevel models estimated the growth in student SEC under different implementation conditions and by different student characteristics (i.e., grade, gender, SEC at baseline). Findings suggest significant growth in SEC with some meaningful variation. Results are interpreted to illustrate how routine-practice studies can be used to infer how much growth is typical, among which students, and under what conditions, to facilitate real-time practice decisions.Impact Statement: To facilitate social and emotional learning in schools, educators need to monitor progress in students’ acquisition of social and emotional competence. Two case studies are presented to illustrate how studies can be used to infer how much growth is typical, among which students, and under what conditions, to facilitate real-time decisions by educators to adjust instruction.

Effect of Seated Cervical Spinal Manipulation on Autonomic Nervous System Activity as Measured by Heart Rate Variability and Plasma Norepinephrine Levels: A randomized Pre- and Poststudy

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to determine whether seated cervical manipulation produced changes in autonomic nervous system activity, as measured by heart rate variability and plasma norepinephrine levels. MethodsNinety-five healthy young adults (ages 20-48 years) were recruited into a single-blinded physiological study, with 47 randomized to a seated cervical manipulation and 44 randomized to a sham procedure. Heart rate variability in the frequency domain, and plasma norepinephrine levels were measured prior to, immediately following, and 5 minutes following the intervention. ResultsElectrocardiograms were obtained from 39 subjects in the sham group and 43 subjects in the manipulation group. No statistically significant changes were found in measures of heart rate variability in the frequency domain in either the manipulation or sham groups. Blood samples were obtained from 22 subjects in the sham group and 27 subjects in the manipulation group. Plasma norepinephrine levels, as measured by spectrophotometry, declined in both groups from pre- to immediately postintervention, and they remained at decreased levels 5 minutes after the interventions. There were no statistically significant differences between groups in pre- or postintervention norepinephrine levels. ConclusionsMeasures of heart rate variability and plasma norepinephrine levels did not show that seated cervical manipulation produced short-term changes in autonomic nervous system activity compared to a sham procedure in healthy young adults.

“Deaths of despair” over the business cycle: New estimates from a shift-share instrumental variables approach

This study presents new evidence of the effects of short-term economic fluctuations on suicide, fatal drug overdose, and alcohol-related mortality among working-age adults in the United States from 2003–2017. Using a shift-share instrumental variables approach, I find that a one percentage point increase in the aggregate employment rate decreases current-year non-drug suicides by 1.7 percent. These protective effects are concentrated among working-age men and likely reflect a combination of individual labor market experiences as well as the indirect effects of local economic growth. I find no consistent evidence that short-term business cycle changes affect drug or alcohol-related mortality. While the estimated protective effects are small relative to secular increases in suicide in recent decades, these findings are suggestive of important, short-term economic factors affecting specific causes of death and should be considered alongside the longer-term and multifaceted social, economic, and cultural determinants of America’s “despair” epidemic.

Short-term personality development and early career success: Two longitudinal studies during the post-graduation transition.

Investigate short-term personality development during the post-graduation transition. Prior research indicates that long-term personality development matters for employment outcomes. However, this evidence is primarily limited to multi-year longitudinal studies. This research switches the focus to personality changes during a shorter, impactful life transition. We examined how short-term personality development during the 14-month post-graduation transition relates to early career outcomes among two diverse samples of graduates from universities (N = 816) and community colleges (N = 567). We used latent growth curve models to examine associations between career outcomes measured 14 months after graduation with initial personality levels and personality changes. Results revealed that mean-level changes in personality were small and mostly negative. Moreover, individual differences in personality changes were not associated with career outcomes. However, initial levels of conscientiousness, emotional stability, and extraversion positively related to both subjective and objective career success. Initial levels of agreeableness were also positively related to subjective (but not objective) success. Findings indicate that individual differences in personality trait levels at graduation are stronger predictors of early career success compared to short-term personality changes during the post-graduation transition. Taken together, these results help define the time sequence through which personality changes relate to career outcomes.

Losing lemurs: Declining populations and land cover changes over space and time.

Forest loss and degradation due to land cover changes imperil biodiversity worldwide. Subtropical and tropical ecosystems experience high deforestation rates, negatively affecting species like primates. Madagascar's endemic lemurs face exceptionally high risks of population declines and extirpation. We examined how short-term land cover changes within a fragmented landscape in southeastern Madagascar impacted the density of lemur species. Using line transects, we assessed density changes in nine lemur species across five forest fragments. Diurnal surveys were conducted monthly from 2015 to 2019 on 35 transects (total effort = 1268 km). Additionally, 21 transects were surveyed nocturnally in 2015 and 2016 (total effort = 107.5 km). To quantify forest cover changes, we generated land use/land cover (LULC) maps from Sentinel-2 imagery using supervised classification for each year. For the LULC maps, we overlayed species-specific buffers around all transects and calculated the proportion of land cover classes within them. We observed declines in the annual densities of four diurnal and cathemeral lemur species between 2015 and 2019, with species-specific declines of up to 80% (Varecia variegata). While the density of two nocturnal species decreased, one increased fivefold (Cheirogaleus major) between 2015 and 2016. By 2019, Grassland was the dominant land type (50%), while Paddy Fields had the smallest coverage (1.03%). Mature Agricultural Land increased the most (63.37%), while New Agricultural Land decreased the most (-66.36%). Unexpectedly, we did not find evidence that higher forest cover supported a higher lemur population density within sampled areas, but we found support for the negative impact of degraded land cover types on three lemur species. Our study underscores the urgent need to address land-use changes and their repercussions for primate populations in tropical ecosystems. The diverse responses of lemur species to modified habitats highlight the complexity of these impacts and emphasize the importance of targeted conservation efforts.

An Analysis of the Correlation between the Asymmetry of Different EEG-Sensor Locations in Diverse Frequency Bands and Short-Term Subjective Well-Being Changes.

We focus on finding a correlation between the asymmetries of electroencephalography (EEG) signals and subjective well-being (SWB) when changed on short time scales via environmental conditions. Most research in this field focuses on frontal alpha asymmetry. We systematically examine different sensor locations and filter the sensor data into the delta band, the theta band, the alpha band, the beta band, and the gamma band, or leave the EEG signal unfiltered. We confirm that frontal alpha asymmetry is correlated to SWB. However, asymmetries between other sensors and/or filtering the data to other bands also shows a linear correlation to SWB values. Asymmetries of anterior brain regions show statistically significant results not only in the alpha band but also in the delta band and theta band, or when the data is not filtered into a specific band. Asymmetries of posterior regions show a trend to be correlated to SWB when EEG activity is higher on the opposite hemisphere and filtered into different frequency bands. Thus, our results let us conclude that focusing just on frontal sensors and the alpha band might not reveal the whole picture of brain regions and frequency bands involved in SWB.

Short-Term Changes in Weather Conditions and the Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome Hospitalization with and without ST-Segment Elevation: A Focus on Vulnerable Subgroups.

Background and Objectives: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), a prevalent global cardiovascular disease and leading cause of mortality, is significantly correlated with meteorological factors. This study aims to analyze the impact of short-term changes in meteorological factors on the risk of ACS, both with and without ST-segment elevation, and to identify vulnerable subgroups. Materials and Methods: Daily ACS admissions and meteorological variables were collected from October 2016 to December 2021. A generalized linear model (GLM) with a Poisson distribution was employed to examine how short-term fluctuations in meteorological parameters influence ACS hospitalizations. Subgroup analyses were conducted to identify the populations most vulnerable to climate change. Results: Multiple regression analyses showed that short-term fluctuations in atmospheric pressure (≥10 mbar) and air temperature (≥5 °C) seven days prior increased the number of ACS hospitalizations by 58.7% (RR: 1.587; 95% CI: 1.501-1.679) and 55.2% (RR: 1.552; 95% CI: 1.465-1.644), respectively, notably impacting ST-segment elevation myocardial infarctions (STEMIs). The least pronounced association was observed between the daily count of ACS and the variation in relative air humidity (≥20%), resulting in an 18.4% (RR: 1.184; 95% CI: 1.091-1.286) increase in the risk of hospitalization. Subgroup analysis revealed an increased susceptibility among men and older adults to short-term variations in weather parameters. Conclusions: The findings indicate that short-term changes in weather conditions are associated with an increased risk of ACS hospitalizations, particularly STEMIs. Male and older adult patients exhibit heightened susceptibility to variations in climatic factors. Developing effective preventive strategies is imperative to alleviate the adverse consequences of these environmental risk factors.

Partisan politics and economic intervention: evidence from an aggregating approach

While government intervention in the economy has decreased in recent decades, the literature disagrees on the causes of this development. This article provides a comprehensive picture by aggregating five economic policy instruments (regulation, state ownership, business taxation, subsidisation, government spending) into one index for 20 OECD countries between 1981 and 2018. It studies partisan politics and the conditioning effects of domestic and international economic pressures (unemployment, globalisation). It is argued that the moderating effect varies for short- and long-term pressures for domestic, but not for international factors. Regression analyses highlight the role of political parties with the left increasing intervention. Moreover, partisan differences are particularly relevant when unemployment is high, but disappear as unemployment increases. Regarding globalisation, partisan differences decrease with the level of globalisation, while short-term changes do not condition them. This aggregating approach sheds new light on partisan politics when it comes to state intervention in the economy.

The Role of Crustal Contamination throughout the 1329–2005 CE Eruptive Record of Mt. Etna Volcano, Italy

Abstract The nearly continuous volcanic eruption record at Mt. Etna dating back ~700 years provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the geochemical evolution of a highly active volcano. Of particular interest is elucidating the cause of selective enrichment in alkali elements (K and Rb) and 87Sr/86Sr observed in various episodes of past activity. More recently, this alkali enrichment trend started to manifest in the 17th century and accelerated after 1971, and was accompanied by an increase in the volume, frequency, and explosivity of eruptions. Explanations for this signature include recharge of alkali-enriched magmas and/or crustal contamination from the subvolcanic basement. This study quantitatively examines the role of crustal contamination in post-1971 Etnean magma compositions via hundreds of open-system phase equilibria and trace element calculations based upon whole-rock major oxides, trace elements, 87Sr/86Sr ratios, and mineral compositional data. Available pre-1971 petrochemical data are satisfactorily reproduced by fractional crystallization of a high whole-rock MgO (12–17 wt.%), Ni (135–285 ppm), and Cr (920–1330 ppm) parental magma composition that is documented in Etna's ~4-ka fall-stratified deposit. Observed post-1971 whole-rock and glass trends and phase equilibria are reproduced via modeled assimilation of a skarn and flysch mixture, lithologies that represent the uppermost 10 to 15 km of sedimentary rocks beneath Etna. Notably, models show that K2O (wt.%) and Rb (ppm) behave incompatibly during partial melting of skarn/flysch. Additionally, the observed elevation of 87Sr/86Sr in post-1971 samples is consistent with the addition of radiogenic Sr from wallrock partial melts. In best-fit models, which yield observed post-1971 K2O, Rb, and 87Sr/86Sr trends, ~17% anatectic melt is assimilated and there may be a subordinate stoped wallrock component of ≤2% (percentage is relative to the starting mass of pristine magma). Previous work has shown that metasomatized spinel lherzolite and garnet pyroxenite can be melted in different proportions to reproduce long- and short-term changes observed in Etna’s geochemical products. We propose that the alkali enrichment signature observed after 1971 can be fully explained through the combination of mantle heterogeneity and crustal contamination. In particular, up to ~20% crustal input coupled with mantle heterogeneity of primitive melts explains the geochemical signals quite well. The influence of crustal contamination on post-1971 lavas is, in part, the result of frequent recharge of magmas that thermally primed the middle to upper crust and enhanced its partial melting.

Mound-like Epiretinal Material: Its Short-term Changes and Association with Posterior Vitreous Detachment.

To describe clinical characteristics of a retinal finding termed mound-like epiretinal material (MOLEM), and distinguish it from epiretinal proliferation, a similar epiretinal finding previously described in various pathologies. Five eyes from five patients were retrospectively identified from medical records. Clinical findings and images, including fundus photographs and optical coherence tomography (OCT), were reviewed. All eyes displayed mound-like material with uniform and low-to-moderate reflectivity on an otherwise intact retinal surface detected on OCT. No eyes presented with concurrent pathology typically observed in cases of epiretinal proliferation, such as lamellar/full-thickness macular hole, epiretinal membrane, vitreomacular traction, or uveitis. Two eyes exhibited central serous chorioretinopathy, but there was no association of MOLEM with serous retinal detachment. In three out of five eyes, MOLEM appeared simultaneously with posterior vitreous detachment (PVD). Some lesions underwent irregular transformations over months and occasionally disappeared. While all cases were monitored without intervention, no visual decline or complications attributed to MOLEM were detected. MOLEM represents a novel clinical finding, characterized by transient morphological changes without symptoms and potential association with PVD. It may occur in eyes lacking macular diseases linked with epiretinal proliferation, a similar yet distinct lesion. The incidence, etiology, and clinical significance of MOLEM warrant further investigation by accumulating comparable cases, although the lesion appears benign and self-limiting.

Extracellular vesicles as potential biomarkers for diagnosis and recurrence detection of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary malignant liver tumor and a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. However, current diagnostic tools are often invasive and technically limited. In the last decade, non-invasive liquid biopsies have transformed the field of clinical oncology, showcasing the potential of various liquid-biopsy derived analytes, including extracellular vesicles (EVs), to diagnose and monitor HCC progression and metastatic spreading, serving as promising novel biomarkers. A prospective single-center cohort study including 37 HCC patients and 20 patients with non-malignant liver disease (NMLD), as a control group, was conducted. Serum EVs of both groups were analyzed before and after liver surgery. The study utilized microbead-based magnetic particle sorting and flow cytometry to detect 37 characteristic surface proteins of EVs. Furthermore, HCC patients who experienced tumor recurrence (R-HCC) within 12 months after surgery were compared to HCC patients without recurrence (NR-HCC). EVs of R-HCC patients (n = 12/20) showed significantly lower levels of CD31 compared to EVs of NR-HCC patients (p = 0.0033). EVs of NMLD-group showed significantly higher expressions of CD41b than EVs of HCC group (p = 0.0286). The study determined significant short-term changes in CD19 dynamics in EVs of the NMLD-group, with preoperative values being significantly higher than postoperative values (p = 0.0065). This finding of our pilot study suggests EVs could play a role as potential targets for the development of diagnostic and therapeutic approaches for the early and non-invasive detection of HCC recurrence. Further, more in-depth analysis of the specific EV markers are needed to corroborate their potential role as diagnostic and therapeutic targets for HCC.

The incubation environment does not explain significant variation in heart rate plasticity among avian embryos.

The conditions an organism experiences during development can modify how they plastically respond to short-term changes in their environment later in life. This can be adaptive because the optimal average trait value and the optimal plastic change in trait value in response to the environment may differ across different environments. For example, early developmental temperatures can adaptively modify how reptiles, fish and invertebrates metabolically respond to temperature. However, whether individuals within populations respond differently (a prerequisite to adaptive evolution), and whether this occurs in birds, which are only ectothermic for part of their life cycle, is not known. We experimentally tested these possibilities by artificially incubating the embryos of Pekin ducks (Anas platyrhynchos domesticus) at constant or variable temperatures. We measured their consequent heart rate reaction norms to short-term changes in egg temperature and tracked their growth. Contrary to expectations, the early thermal environment did not modify heart rate reaction norms, but regardless, these reaction norms differed among individuals. Embryos with higher average heart rates were smaller upon hatching, but heart rate reaction norms did not predict subsequent growth. Our data also suggests that the thermal environment may affect both the variance in heart rate reaction norms and their covariance with growth. Thus, individual avian embryos can vary in their plasticity to temperature, and in contrast to fully ectothermic taxa, the early thermal environment does not explain this variance. Because among-individual variation is one precondition to adaptive evolution, the factors that do contribute to such variability may be important.

Short-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Nitrogen Dioxide and Mortality in 4 Countries

The association between short-term exposure to air pollution and mortality has been widely documented worldwide; however, few studies have applied causal modeling approaches to account for unmeasured confounders that vary across time and space. To estimate the association between short-term changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and changes in daily all-cause mortality rates using a causal modeling approach. This cross-sectional study used air pollution and mortality data from Jiangsu, China; California; central-southern Italy; and Germany with interactive fixed-effects models to control for both measured and unmeasured spatiotemporal confounders. A total of 8 963 352 deaths in these 4 regions from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019, were included in the study. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2021, to October 30, 2023. Day-to-day changes in county- or municipality-level mean PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations. Day-to-day changes in county- or municipality-level all-cause mortality rates. Among the 8 963 352 deaths in the 4 study regions, a 10-μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increase in daily all-cause deaths per 100 000 people of 0.01 (95% CI, 0.001-0.01) in Jiangsu, 0.03 (95% CI, 0.004-0.05) in California, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.14) in central-southern Italy, and 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02- 0.05) in Germany. The corresponding increases in mortality rates for a 10-μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration were 0.04 (95% CI, 0.03-0.05) in Jiangsu, 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.04) in California, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.05-0.15) in central-southern Italy, and 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.06) in Germany. Significant effect modifications by age were observed in all regions, by sex in Germany (eg, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.06] for females in the single-pollutant model of PM2.5), and by urbanicity in Jiangsu (0.07 [95% CI, 0.04-0.10] for rural counties in the 2-pollutant model of NO2). The findings of this cross-sectional study contribute to the growing body of evidence that increases in short-term exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 may be associated with increases in all-cause mortality rates. The interactive fixed-effects model, which controls for unmeasured spatial and temporal confounders, including unmeasured time-varying confounders in different spatial units, can be used to estimate associations between changes in short-term exposure to air pollution and changes in health outcomes.

RAINFALL FORECASTING WITH AN INTERMITTENT APPROACH USING HYBRID EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING NEURAL NETWORK

Rainfall forecasting is crucial in agriculture, water resource management, urban planning, and disaster preparation. Traditional approaches fail to capture complicated and intermittent rainfall patterns. The “Hybrid Exponential Smoothing Neural Network” is introduced in this study to handle intermittent rainfall forecasting issues. Exponential Smoothing, an established approach for discovering underlying patterns and seasonal fluctuations in time series data, is combined with Neural Networks, which are good at capturing complex linkages and nonlinearities. Using these two methods, this model hopes to deliver a complete rainfall forecasting solution that accounts for short-term changes and long-term patterns. This research uses residuals from the exponential smoothing model and is modeled using a Neural Network. The residual input is transformed using rolling mean. The results show that the hybrid model is able to capture patterns well, but there are still patterns that experience time lag. Experimental results obtained reveal that the hybrid methodology performs better than the model exponential smoothing, implying that the proposed model hybrid synergy approach can be used as an alternative solution to the rainfall time series forecasting. The results show that the Hybrid method can form patterns better than individual exponential smoothing models or neural networks. The RMSSE values for all areas are 1.0185, 1.55092, 1.0872.

The asymmetric impact of government expenditure on economic growth: Evidence from a NARDL model

Since the 2011 Revolution, Tunisia has faced significant economic development challenges. Government spending plays a crucial role in fostering economic growth. This study focuses on Tunisia from 1980 to 2022, considering factors like foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness, capital, and labor. It particularly examines spending in four government sectors: agriculture, education, health, and military. Using the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study investigates how these sectoral government expenditures relate to Tunisia's gross domestic product (GDP). The findings suggest that the relationship between these factors and GDP is complex. For instance, increases in trade openness and FDI generally lead to GDP growth. Similarly, changes in the labor force impact GDP differently in the short and long term, with negative and positive changes eventually benefiting the economy, but positive changes can initially decrease GDP. The study also finds that government spending on agriculture and health positively affects GDP, whereas spending on military and education has a negative impact. To enhance government spending and stimulate economic growth in Tunisia, the study recommends addressing corruption, inefficiency, and waste. It emphasizes the importance of directing public funds towards infrastructure, particularly in the education and military sectors, to improve welfare and support productive activities.