Implications of Russia-Ukraine war on land surface temperature and air quality: long-term and short-term analysis.

Abstract

The world is currently witnessing the military operations of Russia invading Ukraine, leading to missile bombing and shelling on various parts. Although the economic ill effects are more conspicuous and much talked about, the environmental impacts are grimmer and more devastating but ironically are less in the news. Hence, in this work, we focused on the environmental impact of the Russia-Ukraine war by quantifying the long-term(2001 to 2023) and short-term temperature changes using land surface temperature (LST) and air temperature (AT) as proxies and monitoring changes in air quality, mainly methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO2), between 2021 and 2022. We used NASA MODIS FIRMS fire points from 24th February 2022 to 08th September 2023 to prepare the heat map for identifying the regions heavily devastated by bombing. Thus, parts of Kiev, Lviv, Luhansk, Odesa, Donetsk, Kherson, etc., in Ukraine were chosen for assessing the LST, AT variations during the peak season of war along with analysis of long-term and short-term changes. We used MODIS Terra LST and Emissivity, ERA 5 AT, CH4, CO2 from AIRS and CO from Sentinel 5P. The results of the LST showed an average increase of around 2.32°C (2022-2023), 3.44°C (2021 and 2022) in parts of Ukraine and an increase of about 2°C from COVID time, whilst a decrease of about 1°C during COVID. This increase in LST will cause enhanced warming, thus changing the regional climate in a shorter time frame. A consistent upward trend in CH4, CO and CO2 is seen from 2019 to 2023. These heat waves and pollution will grip Ukraine and cause menace due to the cumulative effect of heat waves, changing climate and the aftermaths of war. This would be catastrophic as it might lead to a widespread impact on human health, agricultural yield and infrastructure, to name a few.