Climate Shifts Research Articles

Climate Change and Public Health Dynamics: A Bibliometric Study with Comprehensive Review

The study directs to analyze how global climate shift affects public well-being and identify research clusters, trends, and potential gaps in this multidisciplinary field. The study also investigates the worldwide distribution of research institutions and their collaborative networks in this crucial area. We have use advanced bibliometric techniques to achieve our objectives. The analysis involves numerous academic articles, including journals, authors, keyword co-occurrence, and affiliations. By mapping the intellectual composition and trends in the field, we can gain valued perceptions of the complex relationship involving environmental alteration and public well-being. Bibliometric data is used to track research themes and clusters over time, examining keyword co-occurrence and affiliations. A comprehensive dataset of 1854 research papers was acquired from January 2000 to July 2023. Geospatial analysis helps us understand the geographic distribution of research institutions. Research papers were collected on climatic variations and people's physical conditions from the Web of Science portal, the report includes a bibliometric analysis and methodology review. Our study highlights research clusters and evolving themes in climatic disturbances and public wellbeing, along with potential study gaps. Furthermore, it examines the global reach of this critical field by analyzing the geographic distribution of research institutions and their collaborative networks. This review specifies a broad view of climate difference's impact on public health. It helps identify trends and promotes interdisciplinary collaborations. Use it to shape evidence-based strategies for mitigating climate changes health effects in the 21st century.

Late-Holocene ecosystem dynamics on Weizhou Island, China: A pollen and historical record of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances

Understanding the mechanisms behind landscape diversity changes on islands, particularly due to historical human interventions, remains a critical challenge in paleoecology. This study addresses this gap by utilizing over 160 pollen samples combined with multi-proxy data and historical records to reconstruct the late-Holocene ecological and environmental dynamics of Weizhou Island, China, over the last 1400 years. Our analyses reveal the evolution of ecosystem diversity and vegetation succession amid climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic pressures, identifying four distinct phases of transformation: (1) A warm and dry climate from 1400 to 850 cal yr BP fostering a savanna ecosystem; (2) A shift to a North subtropical seasonal rainforest under a more humid climate between 850 and 210 cal yr BP, with increased vegetation diversity; (3) The initiation of agriculture and aquaculture, along with a cooler climate from 210 cal yr BP to 1970 CE, marked by human-induced landscape alterations; and (4) A significant transformation from a once-diverse ecosystem to artificial protective forests from 1970 CE to the present. By correlating environmental indicators with historical accounts across eight Chinese dynasties, our study provides detailed insights into the climatic and human factors shaping the island's history. The findings demonstrate that while climatic shifts are primary drivers of biodiversity changes, anthropogenic disturbances also play a significant role. This research underscores the resilience of ecosystems to both climatic and human pressures and emphasizes the importance of integrating historical context into environmental studies.

Multi-proxy reconstruction of climate changes from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age in Southeast China

Exploring climate fluctuations across geological eras provides crucial historical context for addressing contemporary global climate challenges. This research leverages multi-proxies records analytical techniques, including pollen and charcoal analysis, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and assessments of humification degree and loss on ignition (LOI), alongside paleoclimate simulations based on an alpine peat bog in Jiangxi Province, Southeast China. The study aims to provide a comprehensive review of vegetation evolution, climatic shifts, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity, and the potential drivers behind EASM behavior over the past two millennia. Our findings reveal a significant transition in precipitation and temperature patterns from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 960–1420 CE) to the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1420–1850 CE). A distinct pattern emerges, highlighting particularly wet periods occurring between 960–1050 CE, 1190–1250 CE, and 1350–1400 CE, as well as significant droughts during 1430–1550 CE, 1590–1650 CE, 1680–1720 CE, and 1750–1800 CE. When compared to our temperature reconstruction series and precipitation data, a clear correlation emerges—wet phases align with warmer period characteristic of the MCA. Based on our simulation results, we suggest that ENSO oscillations and the Indo-Pacific warm pool played a substantial role in driving climate dynamics from the MCA to the LIA.

A Holocene fire history from Terra Nova National Park, Newfoundland, Canada: vegetation and climate change both influenced the fire regime

Fire is the largest natural disturbance factor in the boreal forest and plays a critical role in the composition, structure, and succession of stands and landscapes. The island of Newfoundland, located in eastern Canada, is subjected to a greater maritime influence, which may result in longer fire return intervals. The limited data on the fire regime does not account for interactions between fire, vegetation, and climate throughout the Holocene. We used sediment cores from Arnold’s Pond, Terra Nova National Park, which covered the last ~11,800 cal. yr BP, to investigate these interactions. We recognize 4 pollen zones and macroscopic charcoal analysis detected 45 local fire events. The 250-year mean fire return interval associated with the current vegetation is longer than a previous estimate for the park, but significantly shorter than other estimates for the island. Our mean fire return interval is within the range of fire estimates from Québec with similar vegetation. Our results suggest that the fire regime was primarily influenced by vegetation and climate. The transition to an open forest from a shrub tundra resulted in increased fire activity and fire frequency, which were likely driven by additional fuel on the landscape, but could have also been influenced by unknown climatic factors. We identified several examples of changes in the fire frequencies and/or charcoal accumulation that coincided with regional climate shifts, but we also identified a non-synchronous change. The non-synchronous shift to drier conditions resulted in a ~500-year time lag between peak Pinus strobus abundance and maximum fire frequency. Synchronous shifts in fire activity and/or fire frequency coincided with the 8200 event, Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. We also noted a decrease in fire frequency between 2600–1500 cal. yr BP that coincided with similar changes in the fire frequency from ~3000–1000 cal. yr BP in Québec. Our study highlights the complex interactions influencing the fire regime in our study area during the Holocene.

Climate resilience in aquaculture: A cluster analysis of Chinese coastal regional production and farming practices in the face of climatic shifts 2017–2021

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the aquaculture industry across 11 coastal regions in eastern China from 2017 to 2021 to assess their adaptability and resilience in the face of climate change. Cluster analysis was employed to examine regional variations in aquaculture adaptation by analyzing data on annual average temperatures, annual extreme high/low temperatures, annual average relative humidity, annual sunshine duration, and total yearly precipitation alongside various aquaculture practices. The findings reveal that southern regions, such as Fujian and Guangdong, demonstrate higher adaptability and resilience due to their stable subtropical climates and advanced aquaculture technologies. In contrast, northern regions like Liaoning and Shandong, characterized by more significant climatic fluctuations, exhibit varying degrees of cluster changes, indicating a continuous need to adjust aquaculture strategies to cope with climatic challenges. Additionally, the study explores the specific impacts of climate change on species selection, disease management, and water resource utilization in aquaculture, emphasizing the importance of developing region-specific strategies. Based on these insights, several strategic recommendations are proposed, including promoting species diversification, enhancing disease monitoring and control, improving water quality management techniques, and urging governmental support for policies and technical guidance to enhance the climate resilience and sustainability of the aquaculture sector. These strategies and recommendations aim to assist the aquaculture industry in addressing future climate challenges and fostering long-term sustainable development.

Comparative phylogenomic study of East Asian endemic genus, Corchoropsis Siebold & Zucc. (Malvaceae s.l.), based on complete plastome sequences

BackgroundEndemic plants are key to understanding the evolutionary history and enhancing biodiversity within their unique regions, while also offering significant economic potential. The East Asian endemic genus Corchoropsis Siebold & Zucc., classified within the subfamily Dombeyoideae of Malvaceae s.l., comprises three species.ResultsThis study characterizes the complete plastid genomes (plastomes) of C. crenata var. crenata Siebold & Zucc. and C. crenata var. hupehensis Pamp., which range from 160,093 to 160,724 bp. These genomes contain 78 plastid protein-coding genes, 30 tRNA, and four rRNA, except for one pseudogene, infA. A total of 316 molecular diagnostic characters (MDCs) specific to Corchoropsis were identified. In addition, 91 to 92 simple sequence repeats (SSRs) in C. crenata var. crenata and 75 in C. crenata var. hupehensis were found. Moreover, 49 long repeats were identified in both the Chinese C. crenata var. crenata and C. crenata var. hupehensis, while 52 were found in the South Korean C. crenata var. crenata. Our phylogenetic analyses, based on 78 plastid protein-coding genes, reveal nine subfamilies within the Malvaceae s.l. with high support values and confirm Corchoropsis as a member of Dombeyoideae. Molecular dating suggests that Corchoropsis originated in the Oligocene, and diverged during the Miocene, influenced by the climate shift at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary.ConclusionsThe research explores the evolutionary relationships between nine subfamilies within the Malvaceae s.l. family, specifically identifying the position of the Corchoropsis in the Dombeyoideae. Utilizing plastome sequences and fossil data, the study establishes that Corchoropsis first appeared during the Eocene and experienced further evolutionary divergence during the Miocene, paralleling the evolutionary patterns observed in other East Asian endemic species.

Climate variability in a 3.8 Ma old sedimentary record from the hyperarid Atacama Desert

The hyperarid Atacama Desert is one of the driest and oldest deserts on Earth, rendering it a valuable climate archive. However, unraveling its past climate is particularly challenging and the few studied paleoclimate records of the region reveal strong temporal and spatial variabilities. To enhance our understanding of these dynamics we investigated a sedimentary record in the Yungay valley located in the southern hyperarid Atacama Desert. We employed paleomagnetic and radiocarbon dating, and for the first time for Atacama Desert sediments, a meteoric 10Be/9Be based method for determining the depositional age. The respective 4.20 m deep profile comprises a lower alluvial fan deposit with a maximum age of 3.8 ± 0.8 Ma, and an upper 1.84 m thick clay pan deposit that has accumulated over the last 19 ka. Different proxies including grain size, salt concentration, and elemental composition indicate an aridity increase around 2.3 Ma ago and repeated dry and wet phases during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene. The latter climatic shifts can be assigned to variabilities of the South American Summer Monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation with moisture sources from the Atlantic and the Pacific Ocean, respectively. This study provides deeper insights into the heterogeneous climate of the hyperarid Atacama Desert and underlines the importance of interdisciplinary investigations to decipher climate systems and their effect on potential habitable regions in such an extreme environment.

Increase in Paleoproductivity Driven by Strengthening of Indian Summer Monsoon During Past ~14kyrs: Evidenced by Biogenic Silica Accumulation Rates at Southeastern Arabian Sea

We analysed the BSi (Biogenic Silica) contents of the marine core SK-313/1 from the southeastern Arabian Sea which is dated up to ~14.5 kyr BP. Results show that the maximum and minimum BSi contents are 2.5 and 0.5%, respectively. This is because of the low supply of silica skeleton and the high dissolution and dilution of terrigenous materials. The BSi mass accumulation rates indicate a trend of reduced paleoproductivity during the late Glacial period and increase during the Holocene, with global climatic shifts. Insolation changes at low latitudes, which regulate temperatures, may affect nutrient availability and, consequently productivity variations on a glacial–interglacial timescale. Notably, millennial events like the Younger Dryas (YD) periods, exhibited lower paleoproductivity, in contrast to the Bølling/Allerød (B-A) period and the middle Holocene, which displayed elevated levels of paleoproductivity. These millennial-scale fluctuations in siliceous productivity may be due to the changes in nutrient supply caused by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The period of increased paleoproductivity could be influenced by intensified chemical weathering and a boosted nutrient supply, which are consequences of the strengthened ISM during periods of relatively higher temperature.

Adapting to Change: The Impact of Climatic Shifts on Tourism Destinations and Tourist Mobility in Northern Pakistan

Pakistan aims to showcase its authenticity, pristine nature, and unique cultural heritage from its northern valleys. Mountain tourism in Pakistan is popular during the summer, with tourists enjoying pleasant weather and scenic landscapes. The northern valleys of KP, GB, and AJK are favored destinations, as visitors generally have positive impressions of their interactions with the mountains and local people. Pakistan, an agricultural country, has tourism as a growing sector with significant economic potential. However, both agriculture and tourism are heavily affected by climate change. However, in the past decade, climate change has led to increased natural hazards such as floods, rockfalls, debris flows, rockslides, and avalanches specifically in northern areas of Pakistan. These events frequently cause road blockages and trap tourists, especially during the monsoon season. Such extreme conditions not only endanger local communities but also disrupt transportation infrastructure and damage tourist facilities. The resulting communication network disruptions and road blockages increase tourists' anxiety and fear, leading to unpleasant experiences. This study examines how climate change affects tourist mobility and hinders the tourism industry. It explores how increasing natural hazards, such as floods and landslides, disrupt travel, damage infrastructure, and create safety concerns, ultimately impacting tourist experiences and industry operations.

Differential responses of community‐level functional traits to mid‐ and late‐season experimental drought in a temperate grassland

Abstract Extreme precipitation events are becoming more intense and frequent due to climate change. This climatic shift is impacting the structure and dynamics of natural communities and the key ecosystem services they provide. Changes in species abundance under these conditions are thought to be mediated by functional traits, morpho‐physiological characteristics of an organism that impact its fitness. Future environmental conditions may, therefore, favour different traits to those in present‐day communities. After 6 years of manipulated precipitation levels, including drought (−50% of ambient precipitation), irrigation (+50% of ambient precipitation), and control (ambient precipitation), we measured five key functional traits (plant height, leaf dry matter content [LDMC], leaf thickness, specific leaf area [SLA], and leaf phosphorus concentration) in 586 individual vascular plants to study the effects of precipitation changes on community‐weighted functional traits. Additionally, we tested whether the precipitation change effects on the traits depend on the time of the growing season. As expected, reduced precipitation impacted community composition only for the late‐season timing, after the seasonal field mowing, but led to a significant change in all community‐level plant traits between season timings. Under drought, communities shifted towards shorter individuals with thicker but small leaves and lower phosphorous content. Overall, a combination of community reassembly and intraspecific variation contributed to community‐weighted differences between control and drought plots for plant height, SLA, and LDMC traits. Species turnover was the main driver of community‐weighted means (CWMs) shifts in all traits in the late‐season but SLA. Whereas all traits showed variations at the community level with drought, SLA and LDMC were the most responsive traits at the species level. Nevertheless, our results suggest underestimation of intraspecific variation due to sensitive species lower abundance under stress. No differences in CWMs of functional traits were observed between control and irrigated plots. Synthesis: Our findings suggest that functional trait composition of grassland communities may shift under climate change‐induced drought, depending on the growing season timings. Trait‐based attempts to predict ecosystem functioning must account for such temporal variation in community trait values.

Streamflow trends and flood frequency analysis: a regional study of the UK.

In recent years, the escalating effects of climate change on surface water bodies have underscored the critical importance of analyzing streamflow trends for effective water resource planning and management. This study conducts a comprehensive regional investigation into the streamflow rate trends of 18 rivers across the United Kingdom (UK). An enhanced Mann-Kendall (MK) test was employed to meticulously analyze both rainfall and streamflow trends on monthly and annual scales. Additionally, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method was applied to elucidate the variability of streamflow rates, providing a more nuanced understanding of hydrological changes in response to climatic shifts. MK test reveals statistically significant positive trends in streamflow rates, particularly for rivers in south-central Scotland and northern England. Specifically, in January, rivers such as the Tay at Ballathie, Tweed at Peebles, and Teviot at Ormiston showed Z-scores above 2. Annually, similar positive trends were observed, with the Tay at Ballathie (Z = 3.42) and Nith at Friars Carse (Z = 3.35) exhibiting the highest increases in streamflow rates. The ITA method showed no relevant trends for the lowest values of streamflow, except for the Thames at Kingston, while considerable variability was observed for the highest streamflow rates, with several rivers showing positive trends and, however, some England rivers, like Bure at Ingworth, Test at Broadlands, and Trent at Colwick, showing negative trends. From this perspective, a more in-depth analysis of the extreme streamflow trends was carried out. In particular, the flood frequency of the maximum annual streamflow was assessed, based on the fitting of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution on the annual maxima. Increasing location parameter (μ) and return period trends were observed for several rivers across the UK. In particular, the Tay at Ballathie (Scotland) showed the most marked increase, with μ that ranged from about 730 m3/s to more than 900 m3/s. At the same time, slight decreasing trends were observed for the Trent River (μ from 378 m3/s to 341 m3/s). The critical comparison of the MK test, ITA, and GEV distribution fitting revealed both agreements and discrepancies among the methods. While the analyses generally aligned in detecting significant trends in streamflow rates, notable discrepancies were observed, particularly in rivers with negligible trends. These inconsistencies highlight the complexity of hydrological responses and the limitations of individual methods. Overall, the study provides a comprehensive view of how streamflow dynamics are evolving in UK rivers, highlighting regional variations in the impact of climate change. This understanding can improve water resource management strategies by integrating diverse analytical approaches.

Exploring climate shifts in the Ganga-Brahmaputra basin based on rainfall and temperature variability.

Climate change has a significant impact on the Ganga-Brahmaputra (GB) basin, the major food belt of India, which frequently experiences flooding and varied incidences of drought. The current study examines the changing trend of rainfall and temperature in the GB basin over a period of 30years to identify areas at risk with an emphasis on the Paris Agreement's mandate to keep increasing temperatures below 2°C. The maximum temperature anomaly in the middle Ganga plains recorded an increase of more than 1.5°Cyear-1 in 1999, 2005, and 2009. Some extreme events were observed in the Brahmaputra basin during 1999, 2009, and 2010, where a prominent temperature increase of 1.5°Cyear-1 was observed. The minimum temperature revealed an increasing trend for the G-B basin with an anomalous increase of 0.04 to 0.06°Cyear-1. The rainfall variability across the Ganga basin shows a rising tendency over the lower Ganga region while the Brahmaputra basin showed a downward trend. To identify the statistical relation between the Global climatic oscillations and regional climate, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Niño 3.4 were used. The wet and dry period estimation shows a rise in flood conditions in the Ganga basin whereas, in the Brahmaputra basin, an increase in drought frequency was observed. The correlation based on Niño 3.4 and SPI3 presents a negative relation for the monsoon season in the G-B basin revealing a situation of drought occurrence (SPI3 below 0) with increased Nino 3.4 values (El Niño above + 0.4C).

Assessing teleconnection influences on the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought in Northwest China

ABSTRACT This study delves into the complex relationship between teleconnection patterns and meteorological drought in Northwest China, highlighting the crucial influence of global circulation indices on regional drought dynamics. By analyzing precipitation and temperature data from 1962 to 2022 using the CN05.1 datasets and incorporating various global circulation indices, the study employs the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to delineate drought conditions. Utilizing the Modified Mann-Kendall test and segmented models for trend and change point detection, along with cross wavelet transforms (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) analysis to examine the impact of 15 global circulation indices, the study uncovers significant spatial and temporal climatic variations. Findings indicate a significant increase in temperature and precipitation, with March-April-May (MAM) season showing pronounced drought severity mainly due to a significant temperature rise with a value of 0.0420 °C/year. Change point analysis reveals pivotal shifts in climate, highlighting the region’s susceptibility to climate change. The study identified strong correlations between drought occurrences and global circulation indices like the Artic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), especially within a 4–8 year timeframe, pointing to the significant role of teleconnections in affecting local drought conditions. These insights are vital for formulating effective drought management and climate adaptation strategies in arid and semi-arid regions, offering valuable guidance for policymakers and researchers focused on improving water resource management and enhancing climate resilience in such vulnerable environments.

Assessing spirlin Alburnoides bipunctatus (Bloch, 1782) as an early indicator of climate change and anthropogenic stressors using ecological modeling and machine learning

Combining single-species ecological modeling with advanced machine learning to investigate the long-term population dynamics of the rheophilic fish spirlin offers a powerful approach to understanding environmental changes and climate shifts in aquatic ecosystems. A new ESHIPPOClim model was developed by integrating climate change assessment into the ESHIPPO model. The model identifies spirlin as a potential early indicator of environmental changes, highlighting the interactive effects of climate change and anthropogenic stressors on fish populations and freshwater ecosystems. The ESHIPPOClim model reveals that 28.57 % of the spirlin's data indicates high resilience and ecological responsiveness, with 34.92 % showing medium-high adaptability, suggesting its substantial ability to withstand environmental stressors. With 36.51 % of the data in medium level and no data in the low category, spirlin may serve as a sentinel species, providing early warnings of environmental stressors before they severely impact other species or ecosystems. The results of uniform manifold approximation and projection (UMAP) and a decision tree show that pollution has the highest impact on the population dynamics of spirlin, followed by annual water temperature, overexploitation, and invasive species. Despite the obtained key drivers, higher abundance, dominance, and frequency values were detected in habitats with higher HIPPO stressors and climate change effects. Integrating state-of-the-art machine learning models has enhanced the predictive power of the ESHIPPOClim model, achieving approximately 90 % accuracy in identifying spirlin as an early indicator of climate change and anthropogenic stressors. The ESHIPPOClim model offers a holistic approach with broad practical applications using a simplified three-point scale, adaptable to various fish species, communities, and regions. The ecological modeling supported with advanced machine learning could serve as a foundation for rapid and cost-effective management of aquatic ecosystems, revealing the adaptability potential of fish species, which is crucial in rapidly changing environments.

East Asian summer monsoon evolution during Heinrich Stadial 5

The bi-millennial Heinrich Stadial 5 (HS 5) event, occurring approximately 48 thousand years ago (kyr BP, before 1950 AD), represents a notable cooling episode during the last glacial period in the Northern Hemisphere. However, our comprehension of its impact on Asian summer monsoon variability remains incomplete, largely because of the scarcity of precisely dated and high-resolution records. Here, we present stalagmite δ18O-inferred absolutely dated decadal-resolved evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during HS 5 from Xianyun Cave, southeastern China. Stalagmite chronology constrains the occurrence of HS 5 from 48.67 ± 0.13 to 46.42 ± 0.10 kyr BP. The Xianyun stalagmite record distinctly reveals the three-phase evolution of the EASM during HS 5. It includes a gradual onset lasting for 0.79 kyr (phase 1) from 48.67 to 47.88 kyr BP, a weak EASM oscillation phase (phase 2) with three centennial-scale intensified monsoon events during 47.88–46.94 kyr BP, followed by a gradual 520-yr recovery phase (phase 3). In phases 1 and 2, the synchronous climatic shifts and resemblance to three notable centennial-scale events observed in both the Xianyun and Greenland ice core records suggest a rapid atmospheric teleconnection between the North Atlantic and EASM regions. During phase 3, the 5-century monsoon recovery registered in the Xianyun record contrasts sharply with the rapid 60-yr rebound in the Greenland ice core record. This disagreement suggests a plausible decoupling between low- and high-latitude climates, probably related to tropical sea surface temperatures variabilities and the distinct responses of the regional Intertropical Convergence Zone to El Niño Southern Oscillation variabilities. Our study highlights the essential role of tropical ocean-atmosphere coupling systems in the termination stages of millennial-scale HS events.

Intraspecific priority effects in response to egg hatching delay in a pond-breeding salamander

As reproduction phenologies shift with climate change, populations can experience intraspecific priority effects, wherein early hatching cohorts experience an advantage over late-hatching cohorts, resulting in altered demography. Our study objective was to identify how variation in egg hatching phenology alters intraspecific interactions in small-mouthed salamanders, Ambystoma texanum. We addressed two research questions: (Q1) How are demographic responses altered by variation in the temporal duration of hatching between cohorts, and (Q2) How does the seasonality of hatching delays affect demographic responses? We manipulated hatching phenologies of A. texanum eggs and reared larvae in outdoor mesocosms to metamorphosis. For Q1, hatching delay exhibited non-linear relationships with survival and body size, with the greatest asynchrony in cohort additions resulting in the highest mortality and largest body sizes. For Q2, hatching delay effects were stronger (i.e., survival was lower and body sizes larger) when they occurred later in the season, potentially due to temperature differences that larvae experienced. Overall, our results demonstrate that changes in intraspecific interactions due to phenological shifts can be context-dependent, depending on the strength (i.e., temporal duration) and seasonality of such processes. Identifying context-dependencies of phenological shifts will be critical for predicting changes in organismal demographics with climatic shifts.

Riverscape genomics of the endangered freshwater mussel Lampsilis rafinesqueana

Abstract Historical periods of rapid climate change and associated direct and indirect impacts such as glaciation and restructuring of drainage systems are important in shaping biodiversity, lineage divergence, and contemporary genetic variation amongst many aquatic taxa. Through an understanding of the impacts of these ancient changes in land‐ and waterscapes on current diversity, practitioners can account for a species' unique evolutionary history when developing conservation strategies. We investigated intraspecific genetic diversity of the critically endangered freshwater mussel, Lampsilis rafinesqueana, endemic to the interior region of the U.S.A. Our study (1) characterises genetic variation within and amongst populations to infer biogeographic history and (2) applies genetic information to potential conservation strategies. We applied restriction‐site associated DNA sequencing and mitochondrial DNA sequencing to investigate genetic diversity within and amongst populations of L. rafinesqueana from across the species' distribution. We then considered this information in the context of historical riverscape processes and applicability to conservation. Variation within rivers was similar, but we found different genetic populations associated with two major ecoregions, the Central Interior Highlands and Osage Plains. The plains population displayed an Ne value approximately 10‐fold lower than the highlands population. Historical demographic modelling suggests the two populations diverged approximately 1.2 million years ago and then both populations underwent a substantial decrease in population size around 19,700 years ago. These two major events are each correlated with known periods of historic rapid climate change. We identified two distinct populations of a federally endangered mussel, L. rafinesqueana. Contemporary genetic diversity of this species was strongly influenced by direct and indirect impacts of rapid historic shifts in climate. The highlands population has undergone a recent expansion, typical of post‐Pleistocene climate change, while also having a much larger Ne value than the plains population. Our results suggest low levels of gene flow amongst the two distinct populations across generations. We recommend that conservation managers for this species take into account relative difference in diversity between populations when developing management strategies. In many species, assisted gene flow amongst genetically unique populations should only be considered in extreme circumstances; however, in L. rafinesqueana, low levels of assisted migration amongst populations may be a valuable tactic to maintain natural levels of genetic variation. Our study shows that biogeographical frameworks can be useful for developing conservation strategies that serve to retain important genomic variation that represents the evolutionary potential of target freshwater species.

Predicting the climatic suitability of non-native drought resistant trees in the face of desertification – A case study with Argania spinosa in the Iberian Peninsula

Climate change is driving a poleward shift in the optimal distributions of terrestrial organisms, including trees. Consequently, trees are expected to decrease in climatically unfavourable areas as their optimal climatic conditions shift poleward. This is the case of Mediterranean High Nature Value agroforestry systems in Iberian Peninsula, dominated by holm oaks (Quercus rotundifolia) and cork oaks (Quercus suber), which are expected to shift their future distribution northward. Failure to keep pace with climate warming poses a heightened risk of extinction for these tree species, as well as the loss of crucial ecosystem services they provide. A similar situation is found for argan trees (Argania spinosa) in the southwestern region of Morocco, where it also supports an agroforestry system. The optimum climate for these trees is also shifting northward, toward the Iberian Peninsula. As the argan tree thrives in more arid conditions with irregular precipitation, the future climatic conditions in the Iberian Peninsula may become favourable for the persistence of this tree. In light of this situation, the assisted colonization of the argan tree could potentially contribute to protecting and preserving the tree-associated ecosystem services in Iberian Peninsula. We conducted climate suitability modelling using maximum entropy approach, for both the current and future timeframes, for North of Morocco and Algeria (native range) and the whole Iberian Peninsula (non-native range). Accordingly, there appears to be a significant area with highly suitable climatic conditions (>80 %) for argan tree occurrence, covering approximately 6.7 % of the territory, over 38,000 km2. This area is projected to increase significantly in the future, covering 9–22 % of the territory, or about 55,000 and 127,000 km2. With this study, we aim to contribute to the discussion on the benefits of assisted colonization of argan trees into Iberian Peninsula, as well as potential drawbacks such as the risk of this species becoming invasive.

Ancient wisdom: A new perspective on the past and future Chinese precipitation patterns based on the twenty-four solar terms

Precipitation, as a crucial component of the hydrological cycle, exhibits intense responsiveness to climatic changes. Accurately and finely describing precipitation patterns on a temporal scale within complex climatic regions is a matter that has consistently garnered attention. China, with its intricate geographical environment spanning five climatic zones, has seen its laboring populace develop the unique Twenty-Four Solar Terms (TFST) calendar from ancient times to macroscopically describe climatic shifts and to guide their agricultural activities. Here, based on the chronological framework of the TFST, we revisited and validated the response of typical solar terms to conventional precipitation indicators over the past 40 years in China. By comparing the accumulated precipitation volume and the number of effective precipitation days 30 days before and after the typical solar terms, we established the statistical credibility of this ancient calendar system’s summarization of precipitation patterns. Furthermore, the study examines the response of various future extreme precipitation events to the TFST and their spatial distribution patterns. We identified that more than 70 % of regions in China experienced a concentration of extreme precipitation events during the XiaoShu and DaShu solar terms. Under four different future scenario models, there is prediction that over 55.2 % of the areas in China will also have extreme precipitation events predominantly during the same two solar terms. Additionally, in the Qinghai-Tibet region, there is a trend indicating an increased risk of extreme precipitation frequency during these two critical solar terms associated with rising carbon emissions, with a significance level averaging over 95 %. This research deeply integrates modern meteorological and hydrological science with traditional culture, allowing for a nuanced understanding of the periodicity of extreme precipitation. It also offers a novel perspective and theoretical basis to guide flood prevention efforts and studies on the regularities of extreme precipitation.

Unravelling the evolution of a continental rift by a multi-proxy provenance study (Albertine Rift, Uganda)

Sedimentary provenance analysis has rarely been applied to continental rifts, because source-rock terrains are assumed to be uniform and supply systems stable and closely connected to the formation of graben shoulders. Here, we test the suitability of multi-proxy sedimentary provenance analysis to unravel the evolution of a segment of the East African Rift System from its sedimentary record, where an extreme relief has been created and a continent-wide drainage system has been affected. Multi-proxy techniques include petrographic-mineralogical analysis (framework, heavy mineral spectra, zircon morphology, and colour), as well as single-grain garnet geochemistry, Zr-in-rutile thermometry, and geochronological methods (detrital zircon U–Pb ages). Published data are compiled and complemented by new U–Pb detrital zircon data of rift sediments. Because a comprehensive database of basement source-rock compositions from East Africa is missing, published modern river sand compositions have been added to provide endmember source fingerprints. The selected Albertine Rift is surrounded by four main source terrains within the East African Basement, which cannot be separated clearly by individual provenance indicators. Most useful were heavy mineral spectra, garnet composition, and with limitation Zr-in-rutile thermometry showing different metamorphic overprint. U–Pb detrital zircon spectra assisted well in detecting juvenile magmatism of different orogenic events, but repeated inheritance in younger units prevented a strict allocation. Petrographic maturity turned out to be more dependent on multi-cycle detritus as on climate shift. Applying endmember composition to rift sediments, three evolutionary stages of the Albertine Rift could be identified which coincide with basin-scale unconformities. Moreover, we could prove a large, southwest trending drainage network in East Africa during the Miocene, which was destructed step-wise by ongoing rifting. Extreme uplift of the Rwenzori Mountains up to 5109 m could be documented by a specific set of provenance indicators justified by modern river sand. Three main lessons can be drawn from this study: (1) basement units can be only reliably characterized by a combination of provenance-sensitive parameters, and here, the frequently used U–Pb detrital zircon ages are not sufficient; (2) it is possible to define subunits, e.g., individual fault-blocks within the rift; and (3) chemical weathering is unproblematic when applying a multi-parameter approach even in a tropical setting.Graphical abstract