Assessing teleconnection influences on the spatial and temporal patterns of meteorological drought in Northwest China

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study delves into the complex relationship between teleconnection patterns and meteorological drought in Northwest China, highlighting the crucial influence of global circulation indices on regional drought dynamics. By analyzing precipitation and temperature data from 1962 to 2022 using the CN05.1 datasets and incorporating various global circulation indices, the study employs the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to delineate drought conditions. Utilizing the Modified Mann-Kendall test and segmented models for trend and change point detection, along with cross wavelet transforms (XWT) and wavelet coherence (WTC) analysis to examine the impact of 15 global circulation indices, the study uncovers significant spatial and temporal climatic variations. Findings indicate a significant increase in temperature and precipitation, with March-April-May (MAM) season showing pronounced drought severity mainly due to a significant temperature rise with a value of 0.0420 °C/year. Change point analysis reveals pivotal shifts in climate, highlighting the region’s susceptibility to climate change. The study identified strong correlations between drought occurrences and global circulation indices like the Artic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), especially within a 4–8 year timeframe, pointing to the significant role of teleconnections in affecting local drought conditions. These insights are vital for formulating effective drought management and climate adaptation strategies in arid and semi-arid regions, offering valuable guidance for policymakers and researchers focused on improving water resource management and enhancing climate resilience in such vulnerable environments.